到 2030 年，歐洲 OEM 遵守乘用車二氧化碳排放法規的戰略

隨著 OEM 轉向零排放駕駛以保持合規性，臨界點正在迅速逼近。

本報告調查了歐洲 OEM 為滿足 2030 年乘用車二氧化碳排放法規而製定的戰略，提供了諸如立法和市場概況、戰略要求、增長環境和範圍以及 OEM 概況等信息。它提供了信息。

內容

執行摘要

• 執行摘要
• 提高燃油效率和排放的技術
• 對二氧化碳合規性的技術影響
• OEM 到 2030 年的二氧化碳排放量預測
• 與 xEV 滲透率相比的實際值與目標值

戰略要務

• 為什麼增長越來越難
• 戰略要務 8 (TM)
• 三大戰略要務對歐盟和英國動力總成行業的影響
• 推動增長管道引擎 (TM) 的增長機會

增長環境和範圍 - 歐洲動力總成行業

• 調查範圍
• 車輛細分
• 細分

法規和市場概況

• 區域排放和測試方法
• 全球乘用車企業平均燃油效率目標
• 歐盟和英國排放展望
• 歐盟和英國乘用車的平均二氧化碳排放目標
• 基於質量的 CO2 目標：按 OEM 池
• 技術路線圖：動力總成發展趨勢

CO2 估算器和技術的影響

• 車隊平均二氧化碳排放量的靈活性
• 按 OEM 池劃分的船隊平均二氧化碳排放量
• WLTP 對車隊平均排放量的影響
• 技術對排放合規的重要性
• 預測框架
• 行業平均表現

OEM 簡介

• 寶馬集團
  • 技術對二氧化碳合規性的影響
• Mercedes-Benz Group
• Ford Group
• Honda Group
• Hyundai-Kia Group
• Renault-Nissan Group
• Stellantis Group
• Toyota Group
• Volkswagen Group
• Volvo Group

增長機會宇宙

• 增長機會 1：電動化的 OEM 和供應商合作夥伴關係
• 增長機會 2：通過 xEV 增加對汽車電氣化的投資
• 增長機會 3：燃燒優化以實現低排放
• 首字母縮略詞
• 圖表列表
• 免責聲明

The Tipping Point for OEMs to Move to Zero-emissions Driving as a Means for Compliance is Fast Approaching

Industry-wide fleet average CO2 emission targets for 2025 have been set to be 15% lower than 2020 levels, while 2030 levels will be 37.5% lower than 2020 levels. These targets are more stringent and are for cars only (separate targets are set for LCVs).

Once the focus area for emission reduction, developments in IC engines no longer play an integral role in emissions compliance. Though investment in IC engine development is still beneficial, it is not the primary road to compliance. The availability of flexibilities played a critical role in most OEMs' compliance in 2020. However, these flexibilities reduce year-on-year, with only eco-innovations continuing to be active while moving towards ZLEV mandates of 15% from 2025 and 35% from 2030.

Most European and American OEMs have increased the sale of PHEVs and BEVs for compliance but Asian OEMs have been late in adopting electric powertrains due to the strong focus on hybridisation. Electrification is fast becoming the de-facto requirement for compliance. All OEMs accelerating electrification, which is showing a higher return on investment from a compliance perspective and will shortly do so from the revenue perspective as well.

Europe has been at the forefront of engine downsizing, which is evident from the high share of direct-injected, turbocharged gasoline engines. Alternate combustion cycles, Atkinson and Miller, are also expected to find increased adoption, with Atkinson Cycle being adopted by OEMs with full hybrids.

With the adoption of diesel powertrains declining in Europe since the dieselgate scandal, mHEVs and FHEVs have stepped up to meet the demand. In the short term, mHEVs are projected to be the leading xEV type and post the highest growth rates. The primary driver for increased xEV adoption was to meet the targets for 2020. The adoption of xEVs however, varies between OEMs, with BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo prioritising PHEVs, while Kia, Renault-Nissan, and Volkswagen focus more on BEVs. Asian OEMs, meanwhile, focus on hybridisation and overall efficiency improvement. With OEMs meeting the targets for 2020 and 2021, it is now clear that maintaining the xEV ratio will suffice until the next set of targets come into effect.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• Executive Summary
• Technology for Improving Fuel Economy and Emissions
• Technology Impact on CO2 Compliance
• Technology Impact on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• CO2 Emission Projection by OEM Towards 2030
• Actual Versus Target Compared to xEV Penetration

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the EU and UK Powertrain Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment and Scope-European Powertrain Industry

• Research Scope
• Vehicle Segmentation
• Segmentation

Legislative and Market Overview

• Regional Emissions and Testing Procedures
• Global Passenger Car Corporate Average Fuel Economy Targets
• EU and UK-Emissions Outlook
• EU and UK Passenger Car Fleet Average CO2 Targets
• Mass-based CO2 Targets by OEM Pool
• Technology Roadmap: Powertrain Development Trends

CO2 Estimates and Technology Impact

• Flexibilities Towards Fleet Average CO2 Emissions
• Fleet Average CO2 Emissions by OEM Pool
• Impact of WLTP on Fleet Average Emissions
• Importance of Technology for Emissions Compliance
• Frost & Sullivan-Forecasting Framework
• Industry Average Performance

OEM Profiles

• BMW Group
• BMW Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• BMW Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Mercedes-Benz Group
• Mercedes-Benz Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Mercedes-Benz Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Ford Group
• Ford Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Ford Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Honda Group
• Honda: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Honda: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Hyundai-Kia Group
• Hyundai-Kia Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Hyundai-Kia Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Renault-Nissan Group
• Renault-Nissan Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Renault-Nissan Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Stellantis Group
• Stellantis: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Stellantis: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Toyota Group
• Toyota: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Toyota: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Volkswagen Group
• Volkswagen Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Volkswagen Group: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)
• Volvo Group
• Volvo: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance
• Volvo: Impact of Technology on CO2 Compliance (continued)

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: OEM-supplier Partnerships for Electrification
• Growth Opportunity 1: OEM-supplier Partnerships for Electrification (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2: Increased Investment in Vehicle Electrification Through xEVs
• Growth Opportunity 2: Increased Investment in Vehicle Electrification Through xEVs (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3: Optimising Combustion for Lowering Emissions
• Growth Opportunity 3: Optimising Combustion for Lowering Emissions (continued)
• Initialisms
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer