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網路自動化：SON、RIC、SMO（2023 年 10 月）
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1456203

網路自動化：SON、RIC、SMO（2023 年 10 月）

Network Automation - SON, RIC, SMO Report, October 2023
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 請詢問到貨日

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簡介目錄

SON（自組織網路）演算法是3GP在本世紀初定義的，無需人工幹預即可自動配置和優化行動網路。 隨著網路處理大量流量並隨著多代網路的增加而變得更加複雜，SON 演算法正在與機器學習 (ML) 和人工智慧演算法相融合。

本報告調查了集中式SON (C-SON) 軟體和服務收入市場，估計了市場規模和預測、供應商的市場佔有率，並提供了有關Open RAN、開放? RAN、SD-RAN 的資訊（我們分析了C-SON 模組和用例的演進，用作軟體定義 RAN (RAN) 架構中所需的 RAN 智慧控制器 (RIC) 的應用程式。 該報告還追蹤了 O-RAN 定義的服務管理和編排 (SMO) 市場，並估計了非即時 RIC rApp 和近實時 RIC xApp 的市場佔有率。

目錄

摘要

要點

令人驚訝的是，SON 仍然保持優勢

  • SON 由 NGMN 於 2008 年定義，並由 3GPP 在 REL.8 中標準化，已經存在十多年，並在 2010 年 LTE 部署開始時變得流行。
    • 早在 2010 年，零接觸網路閉環自動化就是 C-SON 的宏偉願景。
  • 2022年全球SON軟體和服務收入將年增1%
    • 預計今年全球 SON 市場將繼續以低個位數成長
    • C-SON 銷售額從未與行動網路數量成比例成長。
    • 無論有沒有 C-SON，LTE 網路都運作良好，5G NSA 網路也是如此
    • 如果所有 LTE 網路都配備 C-SON，全球 C-SON 軟體和服務現在將超過 80 億美元
    • 這段穩定期（2024-2025 年）與 Open vRAN 的激增同時發生
    • C-SON 一直很難推銷
    • 因此，在 C-SON 生態系統中營運的公司數量已減少至 10 家。
    • 大多數公司不再投資 SON 用例，而是專注於 RIC
    • 諾基亞在 C-SON 銷售市場佔有率方面處於領先地位
  • 隨著 Open RAN 的出現，SON 用例正在轉變為應用程式
    • AT&T 自 2017 年以來一直在推廣 ONAP 和 Open RAN 工作。
    • 由於地緣政治因素，Open RAN加速了RIC和SMO的發展。
    • ONF 利用 TIP 和 O-RAN 聯盟將 RAN 轉換為 SDN。
    • Deutsche Telekom急於嘗試 SD-RAN，但僅此而已。
    • 2022 年 4 月，Intel收購了 ONF 開發團隊和 Ananki。
    • 2021 年，基於 O-RAN 聯盟框架開發了 RIC/SMO 模型。
    • 2023 年 8 月，O-RAN 聯盟宣佈了 NIC（RIC 的演變）的願景。
    • 另一方面，Open RAN 網路與 C-SON 配合得很好，預計持續時間比許多人想像的要長。
    • Dish 是唯一一家經營專用 5G Open RAN 網路的公司，並且 Open RAN 與 4G LTE 一起推出。

RIC/SMO 目前處於短暫中斷狀態

  • C-SON市場發展的歷史或將重演
  • 5G Open RAN 中嵌入的 RIC 很複雜且不支援 PRIME TIME
    • 與其前身 SON 一樣，RIC 使用人工智慧和機器學習，並需要將指令傳回 RAN。
    • 此外，xApp 訓練需要產生大量 RAN 場景來重現真實事件。
    • 因此，我們的模型將 RIC 預測移至未來一年。
    • 短暫休息後，RIC 認真上漲
    • 近乎即時的 RIC 市場將解鎖先前由 RAN 供應商獨立管理的 D-SON 用例。
    • 節能與交通導引：兩個最重要的用例
    • CSP 對近實時 RIC 有許多疑問。
    • 到 2028 年，預計 95% 的 C-SON 銷售和服務將以非 RT RIC rApp 的形式出現。
  • CSPS 不將 SMO 與 Open RAN 綁定，並且需要在網路內運作的所有無線電上使用 SMO。
    • 因此，我們的模型將 SMO 預測調整了一年，但仍然比 RIC 早一年開始。
    • 如果將非 Open RAN SMO 機會加入預測中，到 2028 年市場規模將至少翻倍。
    • 經過一段等待期，SMO 市場出現了快速擴張的跡象 - 這代表著最大的機會。
  • 與此同時，一個龐大的 RIC/SMO 生態系統正在建構中。
    • 傳統 RAN 供應商將積極參與 RIC 開發。
    • dcloud 提供者也是如此。
簡介目錄

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence algorithms. This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN, and software defined RAN (SD-RAN) architectures. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

About the author:

Stephane Teral , Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

Stephane founded TERAL RESEARCH in January 2023 after 2 years as a Chief Analyst at LightCounting, which he joined in May 2020, after serving as a Technology Fellow at IHS Markit where he was also rewarded with the 2016 Market Research Excellence Award. Previously, he spent 8 years as a principal analyst at Infonetics Research after starting his analyst career at RHK, where he developed the European optical coverage and helped carriers migrate from PSTN to next-generation networks. Prior to RHK, he was an R&D engineer and project manager with Alcatel where he deployed the CATV optical networks that allowed the 1992 Olympics and the grand opening of Euro Disney to be televised using fiber optics for the first time. Stephane is a McGowan Scholar at the McLaren School of Business of the University of San Francisco where he received his MBA with an emphasis in telecommuni

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

IT'S AMAZING, THE SON KEEPS SHINING!

  • DEFINED BY THE NGMN IN 2008 AND STANDARDIZED BY THE 3GPP IN REL.8, SON HAS BEEN AROUND FOR OVER A DECADE AND TOOK OFF WHEN LTE ROLLOUTS STARTED IN 2010
    • Already in 2010, zero touch network closed-loop automation was the C-SON grand vision
  • IN 2022, GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE GREW 1% YOY
    • This year, we forecast the global SON market to keep growing at low single digits
    • C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
    • With or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
    • If every single LTE network was equipped with a C-SON, we believe global C-SON software and services would be more than $8B at this point
    • This 2024-2025 plateau coincides with the open vRAN uptake
    • C-SON has always been a tough sell
    • As a result, the C-SON ecosystem has shrunk to 10 active players
    • Most players are no longer investing in SON use cases, they focus on RIC
    • Our estimates indicate Nokia leads C-SON sales market shares
  • WITH THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN RAN, SON USE CASES ARE MORPHING INTO APPS
    • Since 2017, AT&T has been driving the ONAP and open RAN efforts
    • Fueled by geopolitics, open RAN accelerated the development of the RIC and the SMO
    • Leveraging the TIP and the O-RAN Alliance, the ONF SDN'ized the RAN
    • Deutsche Telekom rushed to trial SD-RAN but that was it!
    • In April 2022, Intel acquired the ONF development team and Ananki
    • in 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
    • In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
    • In the meantime, open RAN networks run fine with C-SON, which is here to stay longer than many think
    • Only Dish operates a 5G-only open RAN footprint, open RAN started in 4G LTE!

FOR NOW, THE RIC AND THE SMO REMAIN STUCK IN A LULL

  • The C-SON market development history may repeat itself
  • BAKED IN 5G OPEN RAN, RIC IS COMPLEX AND NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME
    • Like its SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
    • In addition, the xApp training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
    • Consequently, our model shifted our RIC forecast 1 year out
    • After the lull, the RIC takes off for good
    • The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors
    • Energy saving and traffic steering are the top 2 use cases
    • CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
    • In 2028, we expect 95% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
  • CSPS ARE NOT TYING SMO TO OPEN RAN, THEY NEED IT FOR ALL RADIOS OPERATING IN THEIR NETWORK
    • Consequently, our model shifted our SMO forecast by 1 year but it will start 1 year earlier than RIC
    • Adding the non-open RAN SMO opportunity to our forecast will at least double the size of the market by 2028
    • After the wait, the SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity
  • MEANWHILE, A HUGE RIC/SMO ECOSYSTEM IS BUILDING UP, SOME WON'T MAKE IT!
    • Traditional RAN vendors have become actively engaged in RIC developments...
    • so are dcloud providers