全球無線基礎設施市場（2023 年第四季/2023 財年）：2024 年 2 月

本報告分析了全球無線基礎設施市場的最新發展（截至2023年第三季），涵蓋2G、3G、4G和5G無線接取網路（RAN）和核心網路節點。然後，我們分析了每個地區（北美、中東/非洲、亞太地區、加勒比海/拉丁美洲）的2G/3G/4G/5G RAN（包括開放vRAN）和核心網路（EPC、vEPC、5GC）的過往數據。歷史數據包括 30 多家無線基礎設施供應商的銷售數據，其中包括那些在調查時共享機密銷售數據的供應商。市場預測基於無線基礎設施供應商銷售的相關模型、對過去 20 年服務供應商網路部署模式的分析以及更新和擴展計劃。

目錄

概述

重點：2023 年將是無線撤資週期的第二年，2024 年將是第三年

儘管 2023 年第四季表現強勁，但全年將下降 9%。

• 5G Core在2023年第四季和2023年都達到頂峰，5G RAN也表現良好
• 儘管部署步伐緩慢，但5G前景依然光明
  • LTE-A 和 VoLTE 更新潛力仍處於令人印象深刻的水平
  • 對 IMS 的需求比以往任何時候都更大，但語音有什麼問題呢？
  • 新EPC需求正在消失，但產能持續擴大
• Huawei將在2023年第四季和2023財年保持領先地位，中興通訊將增加佔有率
  • 在RAN市佔率方面，Huawei和Ericsson不分上下，其次是Nokia。
• 在核心網路方面，2023年第四季5G核心網路銷售的大部分將再次來自中國，Huawei・ZTE合計佔69%的市場。
  • 向 5G SA 過渡的長期延遲繼續阻礙 5G 核心銷售。
  • Ericsson：報告與現實有巨大脫節
  • 4G核心：Huawei將在2023年保持第一的位置，Ericsson將在2023年第四季佔據第一。
  • 取得/維持 EPC/vEPC 市佔率是一項艱難的平衡行為。
• 正如預測，高峰已經過去，2023年將是撤資週期的第二年，2024年將是第三年。

無線基礎設施市場長期預測：預期呈下降趨勢

• 隨著一些國家對中國供應商的排斥，4G和5G設備的二手市場將變得更加活躍並壓倒其他市場——情況進一步惡化
  • 隨著德國準備退役Huawei的5G設備，2024年至2025年，新一輪的二手設備將湧入二手市場。
• 中斷一段時間後，Open RAN 將在今年正式啟動
  • 諷刺的是，地緣政治因素既推動了Ericsson・Nokia・Samsung領導的 Open RAN 生態系統，也推動了傳統 5G RAN 的部署。
• 亞太地區擁有全球最大的無線網絡，並將繼續成為最大的市場。
• 北美仍是僅次於亞太地區的全球第二大無線基礎設施市場。
• 歐洲、中東和非洲 (EMEA) 的 5G 市場將持續下滑，直至 2029 年。
• 加勒比海和拉丁美洲 (CALA) 正在復甦，預計未來將會成長。

This report analyzes the 3Q23 wireless infrastructure market worldwide and covers 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G radio access network (RAN) and core network nodes. It presents historical data from 2016 to 2022, quarterly market size and vendor market shares, and a detailed market forecast through 2028 for 2G/3G/4G/5G RAN, including Open vRAN, and core networks (EPC, vEPC, and 5GC), for each region (North America, Europe Middle East Africa, Asia Pacific, Caribbean Latin America). The historical data accounts for the sales of more than 30 wireless infrastructure vendors, including a few vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting/TERAL RESEARCH. The market forecast is based on a model correlating wireless infrastructure vendor sales with 20 years of service provider network rollout pattern analysis, and upgrade and expansion plans.

About the author:

Stephane Teral , Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

Stephane founded TERAL RESEARCH in January 2023 after 2 years as a Chief Analyst at LightCounting, which he joined in May 2020, after serving as a Technology Fellow at IHS Markit where he was also rewarded with the 2016 Market Research Excellence Award. Previously, he spent 8 years as a principal analyst at Infonetics Research after starting his analyst career at RHK, where he developed the European optical coverage and helped carriers migrate from PSTN to next-generation networks. Prior to RHK, he was an R&D engineer and project manager with Alcatel where he deployed the CATV optical networks that allowed the 1992 Olympics and the grand opening of Euro Disney to be televised using fiber optics for the first time. Stephane is a McGowan Scholar at the McLaren School of Business of the University of San Francisco where he received his MBA with an emphasis in telecommuni

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS: 2023 WAS THE SECOND YEAR OF WIRELESS DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2024 WILL BE THE THIRD

DESPITE A STRONG 4Q23, THE FULL YEAR IS 9% DOWN

• 5G CORE WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF BOTH 4Q23 AND 2023, 5G RAN WAS GOOD TOO
• EVEN WITH A SLOWER PACE OF ROLLOUTS, 5G REMAINS THE BRIGHT SPOT
  • The potential for LTE-A and VoLTE upgrades remains phenomenal
  • The need for IMS has never been greater, what's wrong with voice?
  • The need for new EPC is vanishing but capacity expansion continues
• HUAWEI STAYS #1 FOR BOTH 4Q23 AND FY23, ZTE GAINES SHARES
  • For RAN market share, Huawei and Ericsson stay neck and neck, followed by Nokia
• IN CORE NETWORKS, THE BULK OF 5G CORE SALES AGAIN CAME FROM CHINA IN 4Q23: HUAWEI AND ZTE COMBINED COMMAND A 69% MARKET SHARE
  • The prolonged slow migration to 5G SA continues to hinder 5G core sales
  • There is a huge disconnect between what Ericsson reports and the reality
  • In 4G core, Huawei maintained its lead for FY23, Ericsson is #1 in 4Q23
  • Gaining or keeping market share in the EPC/vEPC market is a tough balancing act
• AS RIGHTLY PREDICTED, WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK AND 2023 WAS THE SECOND YEAR OF THE DISINVESTMENT CYCLE, 2024 WILL BE THE THIRD YEAR

OUR LONG-TERM WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET FORECAST POINTS TO A DECLINING TREND...

• FURTHER EXACERBATED BY THE VIBRANT SECONDHAND MARKET FOR 4G AND 5G EQUIPMENT COMING FROM THE REMOVAL OF THE CHINESE VENDORS BANNED IN SPECIFIC COUNTRIES THAT SWAMPS OTHER MARKETS
  • With Germany gearing up to remove Huawei's 5G equipment, we expect another cycle of used kits to flood the secondhand market sometime in 2024-2025
• AFTER THE PAUSE, OPEN RAN WILL START TO RAMP UP THIS YEAR
  • Ironically, geopolitics fueled both the open RAN ecosystem and traditional 5G RAN rollouts led by Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung
• HOME TO THE WORLD'S LARGEST WIRELESS NETWORK FOOTPRINTS, ASIA PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE LARGEST MARKET
• NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET AFTER ASIA PACIFIC
• EMEA'S 5G WILL DECLINE THROUGH 2029
• AND CALA IS BOUNCING BACK WITH POTENTIAL GROWTH AHEAD