電動車 (EV) 為生物燃料市場帶來了激烈的競爭

幾十年來，生物燃料一直致力於促進運輸業的脫碳。然而，電氣化最近引起了人們的關注，從電動車（EV）銷量的快速成長就可以看出。儘管交通運輸業的脫碳正處於十字路口，但多種因素正在加速和深化電動車的採用，包括政府激勵措施、更低的價格和性能的提高。同時，生物燃料不斷發展成為新的相容產品，不僅應用於公路運輸，也應用於跨洋船舶和航空。

本報告探討了全球生物燃料市場對電動車普及的影響，以及這些發展如何鼓勵包括汽車製造商和生物燃料製造商在內的行業參與者改變其交通運輸脫碳方法。我們還將考慮是否進行審查迫在眉睫。此外，我們將提供詳細且可行的建議，幫助產業利害關係人應對此新現象。

目錄

• 火花
• 情境
• 推薦
• 隨著電動車銷售加速，生物燃料成長放緩
  • 在政府政策的推動下，電動車逐漸普及。
  • 生物燃料正在穩步普及，但可能會開闢新的道路
• 電動車預計將取代液體燃料用於短程運輸
  • 新電動車銷量沒有放緩跡象，中國仍處於領先地位
  • 生物燃料政策的改變可能會阻礙成長
  • 新產品和應用推動生物燃料需求成長
• 電動車和生質燃料需要有不同的路徑
  • 政策制定者需要為淨零排放提供明確的目標和激勵措施
  • 生物燃料製造商需要為未來的機會制定路線圖
  • 電池製造商是降低電動車價格的關鍵
  • 汽車製造商需要尋找未來的新機遇

Biofuels have been helping to decarbonize the transportation sector for decades. More recently, however, electrification has drawn increased attention and interest as evidenced by a spike in EV sales. Decarbonization in the transportation industry stands at a crossroads while many factors are driving faster and deeper adoption of EVs, including government incentives, lower prices, and improved performance. At the same time, biofuels continue to evolve to include new drop-in products that will target applications beyond road transport to also include transoceanic shipping and aviation.

This Guidehouse Insights report reviews how these market trends are forcing automakers, biofuels producers, and other industry stakeholders to readdress their approaches to decarbonizing transportation. It also provides detailed and actionable recommendations for industry participants to address this new phenomenon.

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

As EV Sales Accelerate, Biofuels Growth Is Coasting

Driven by Government Policies, EVs Have Hit the Pavement Hard

Biofuels Have Had Steady Road Traction but Could Chart a New Course

EVs Look to Overtake Liquid Fuels for Short-Distance Travel

New EV Sales Show No Signs of Slowing, with China Still in Pole Position

Changes to Biofuels Policies Could Present Roadblocks to Growth

New Products and Applications Will Steer the Growth of Biofuels Demand

EVs and Biofuels Should Move into Their Own Lanes

Policymakers Must Offer Clear Net-Zero Signposts and Incentives

Biofuel Producers Must Create a Roadmap for Future Opportunities

Battery Makers Are Key to Driving Down EV Prices

Automakers Should Look Down the Road to New Opportunities

List of Figures

• Annual New EV Sales, World Markets: 2016-2023
• Biofuels Consumption by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2013-2022
• Battery EV Market Share of All LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2035
• Biofuel Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032