電信營運商資本投資預測：2023 年第三季度

最新預測稱，2023 年營運商資本支出將達到 3,200 億美元，較 2022 年的 3,280 億美元略有下降。 營運商市場廠商早期發布的第三季（Q3 2023）收入報告對此預測提出了質疑。

美洲的下滑比預期更為嚴重，亞洲預計在 2023 年出現成長，但並未實現。 主要供應商報告收入年比大幅下降，原因是庫存調整、宏觀經濟不確定性（特別是利率）和營運商支出下降。 主要供應商Ericsson和Nokia的電信網路基礎設施銷售額（Telco NI）以美元計算與去年同期相比分別下降了 11% 和 16%。 根據同一指數，NEC年增1%，Fujitsu下降52%，Samsung下降41%，Adtran下降29%，Casa下降7%，Juniper下降20%，主要是光纖。供應商Clearfield、Corning、CommScope、Prysmian均出現了兩位數的跌幅。 MTN Consulting 將於下個月正式更新營運商預測。 在此之前，評論指出支出前景弱於預期。 預計2023年營運商的資本投資將在3,000億美元至3,100億美元左右。

範例

本報告研究了全球營運商的資本支出預測，並提供了市場概況、通訊資本投資趨勢、供應商收入以及進入市場的供應商概況。

目錄

摘要

簡介

分析

• 通訊設備投資報告
• 通訊 NI 供應商收入

展望

附錄

上市公司

• A10 Networks
• Adtran
• Alphabet (GCP)
• Amazon Web Services (AWS)
• Amdocs
• Aviat Networks
• Casa Systems
• Clearfield
• CommScope
• Corning
• Ericsson
• Fiberhome
• Fujitsu Limited
• Hengtong Optic
• Huawei
• Infinera
• Juniper Networks
• MasTec
• Microsoft (Azure)
• NEC Corp
• NetScout Systems
• Nokia
• Prysmian
• Samsung Electronics
• ZTE

This comment provides an early review of 3Q23 market growth and spending metrics for the telecommunications operator (telco) market. MTN Consulting's latest forecast called for $320B of telco capex in 2023, down only slightly from the $328B recorded in 2022. Early 3Q23 revenue reports from vendors selling into the telco market call this forecast into question.

SAMPLE VIEW

The dip in the Americas is worse than expected, and Asia's expected 2023 growth has not materialized. Key vendors are reporting significant YoY drops in revenue, pointing to inventory corrections, macroeconomic uncertainty (interest rates, in particular), and weaker telco spending. Network infrastructure sales to telcos (Telco NI) for key vendors Ericsson and Nokia dropped 11% and 16% YoY in 3Q23, respectively, measured in US dollars. By the same metric, NEC, Fujitsu and Samsung saw +1%, -52%, and -41% YoY growth; Adtran, Casa, and Juniper declined 29%, 7%, and 20%; fiber-centric vendors Clearfield, Corning, CommScope, and Prysmian all saw double digit declines. MTN Consulting will update its operator forecast formally next month. In advance, this comment flags a weaker spending outlook than expected. Telco capex for 2023 is likely to come in around $300-$310B.

Organizations mentioned:

Table of Contents

Summary

Introduction

Analysis

• Telco capex reports
• Telco NI vendor earnings

Outlook

Appendix

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Telco capex by region (US$B), 2020-24, per 7/23 forecast
• Figure 2: YoY % change in Telco NI revenues for select vendors