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碳鋼管件市場規模、份額、趨勢分析報告，按應用（石油和天然氣、建築和基礎設施、行業）、地區、細分市場，2022-2030 年
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1122246

碳鋼管件市場規模、份額、趨勢分析報告，按應用（石油和天然氣、建築和基礎設施、行業）、地區、細分市場，2022-2030 年

Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report, By Application (Oil & Gas, Construction & Infrastructure, Industrial), By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2022 - 2030
出版日期: | 出版商: Grand View Research | 英文 80 Pages | 商品交期: 2-10個工作天內

價格

碳鋼管件市場增長和趨勢

根據 Grandview Research 的最新報告，到 2030 年，全球碳鋼管件市場預計將達到 103.9 億美元。從 2022 年到 2030 年，市場預計將以 4.7% 的複合年增長率增長。隨著對石化產品的需求增加，預計適度的石油和天然氣勘探活動將推動市場增長。 `

與石油和天然氣勘探活動相關的投資預計將增加對用於運輸和儲存應用的碳鋼管件的需求。例如，2022 年 5 月，石油和天然氣公司 (ONGC) 宣佈在未來四年內投資 40 億美元用於勘探活動。與 2019 年至 2022 年的 27 億美元勘探支出相比，這增加了 150%。

預計印度等新興國家對水利基礎設施的投資將在預測期內推動對碳鋼配件的需求。 2019 年，印度政府宣佈在未來 15 年內投資 2700 億美元，用於擴建水利基礎設施。該投資項目包括 Namami Gange、河流連接、管道供水和 Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sichai Yojna。

從長遠來看，水電站和其他能源工廠對配件的需求也有望推動市場增長。例如，國際能源署 (IEA) 報告稱，到 2030 年，印度將增加約 26,000 兆瓦 (MW) 的水電裝機容量。截至 2021 年 7 月，該水電項目的裝機容量為 46,209 兆瓦。對基礎設施擴建和防洪的財政支持將使這些設施受益。

預計在預測期內，化學生產行業的投資將有利於碳鋼管件市場的需求。例如，2021 年 10 月，沙特阿拉伯石化公司 Sabic 宣布對其提賽德工廠投資 10 億美元。該公司的目標是通過該項目將其碳足跡減少 60%，並希望鞏固其作為最低碳裂解裝置的地位。

碳鋼管件市場報告亮點

就收入而言，預計從 2022 年到 2030 年，石油和天然氣部門的複合年增長率最高，為 4.8%。勘探投資有望推動市場增長

工業部門是第二大部門，在 2021 年佔超過 38.0% 的銷量份額。從長遠來看，供暖、通風、空調、管道和其他應用對碳鋼配件的需求預計將有利於市場增長。

預計未來幾年建築和基礎設施行業將出現可觀的增長，這主要是由於水運和儲存、衛生和過濾基礎設施對鋼管和配件的需求。

從 2021 年按地區劃分的市場規模來看，亞太地區無論是銷量還是銷量都是最大的。該地區的增長是由中國和印度公司日益關注擴大其在石化和石油和天然氣行業的足跡推動的

按數量計算，北美將在 2021 年佔據第二大市場份額。該地區的增長是由於對與核電和水電項目相關的投資更加關注。

內容

第一章調查方法及範圍

  • 市場細分和範圍
  • 市場定義
  • 信息採購
    • 購買的數據庫
    • GVR 內部數據庫
    • 輔助信息和第三方觀點
    • 初步調查
  • 信息分析
    • 數據分析模型
  • 市場形成和數據可視化
  • 驗證和發布數據

第 2 章執行摘要

  • 按細分預測
  • 競爭前景

第 3 章碳鋼管件市場變量、趨勢和範圍

  • 全球碳鋼管件市場展望
  • 繪製滲透率和增長前景
  • 行業價值鏈分析
    • 原材料展望
  • 技術概述
  • 監管框架
  • 市場動態
    • 市場驅動因素分析
    • 市場約束分析
    • 行業問題
  • 波特五力分析
    • 供應商的權力
    • 買家的議價能力
    • 其他威脅
    • 來自新進入者的威脅
    • 競爭公司之間的敵對關係
  • PESTEL 分析
    • 政治局勢
    • 經濟狀況
    • 社會狀況
    • 技術
    • 環境狀況
    • 法律狀況

第 4 章碳鋼管件市場：應用前景估計與預測

  • 碳鋼管件市場：應用變化分析，2021 年與 2030 年
  • 油氣
  • 化工/石化
  • 建築和基礎設施
  • 工業

第 5 章碳鋼管件市場區域展望估計與預測

  • 區域快照
  • 碳鋼管件市場：區域變化分析，2021 年和 2030 年
  • 北美
    • 美國
  • 歐洲
    • 德國
    • 俄羅斯
    • 土耳其
  • 亞太地區
    • 中國
    • 印度
    • 日本
  • 拉丁美洲
    • 巴西
  • 中東和非洲
    • 伊朗

第 6 章競爭分析

  • 主要參與者及其近期發展及其對行業的影響
  • 公司分類（市場領導者、初創企業、主要創新者）
  • 供應商情況
    • 原材料供應商、分銷商和其他知名製造商名單

第七章公司簡介

  • 淡路材料株式會社
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • Bassi Luigi &CSpA
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • 德爾科特
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • 歐恩配件有限公司
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • MEGASpA
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • 派克漢尼芬公司
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • 上證管件有限公司
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • SBC BEND CO., LTD
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • 成光折彎有限公司
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
  • Thai Benkan Co., Ltd.
    • 公司概況
    • 財務表現
    • 產品基準
    • 戰略舉措
Product Code: GVR-4-68039-962-9

Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market Growth & Trends:

The global carbon steel pipe fittings market size is expected to reach USD 10.39 billion by 2030, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2022 to 2030. Moderate oil & gas exploration activities along with the rise in demand for petrochemical products are expected to assist the market growth. `

Investments associated with oil & gas exploration activities are expected to boost the demand for carbon steel pipe fittings in transportation and storage applications. For instance, In May 2022, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced an investment of USD 4.00 billion for exploration activities over the next 4 years. This is an increase of 150% in exploration expenditure compared to USD 2.70 billion from 2019 to 2022.

Investments in water infrastructure in emerging countries such as India are anticipated to drive demand for carbon steel fittings during the forecast period.In 2019, the Government of India announcedan investment of USD 270 billion over the next 15 years for the expansion of water infrastructure. The projects under this investment include Namami Gange, river-linking, piped water supply, and Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sichai Yojna.

Demand for fittings in hydro and other energy plants is also anticipated to boost the market growth in the long run. For instance, as reported by International Energy Agency (IEA), India is set to add around 26,000 megawatts (MW) of hydropower facilities by 2030. The installed capacity of hydropower projects was 46,209 MW as of July 2021. Financial aids for infrastructure expansion and flood control are likely to benefit the expansion of such facilities.

Investments in chemical production industries are anticipated to benefit the demand for carbon steel pipe fittings market during the forecast year. For instance, in October 2021, Sabic, a Saudi Arabia-based petrochemical company announced the investment of USD 1.00 billion at its Teesside plant. The company aims to reduce 60% of its carbon footprint through this project and wants to strengthen its position as the lowest carbon-emitting crackers.

Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market Report Highlights:

  • In terms of revenue, the oil & gas segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 4.8% from 2022 to 2030. Investments in exploration activities are projected to boost the market growth
  • Industrial held as the second largest segment and accounted for a volume share of over 38.0% in 2021. The carbon steel fittings demand in heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, plumbing, and other applications is projected to benefit the market growth in the long run.
  • The construction & infrastructure segment is projected to witness lucrative growth over the coming years mainly due to steel pipes & fittings demand in water transportation & storage, sanitation, and filtration infrastructure
  • The Asia Pacific was the largest regional market in 2021, in terms of both volume and revenue. The growth of the region is led by the rising focus of Chinese and Indian companies to expand their footprint in petrochemicals and oil & gas industries
  • In terms of volume, North America accounted for the second-largest market share in 2021. The growth of the region is attributable to the rising focus on investments associated with nuclear and hydro energy projects.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Methodology and Scope

  • 1.1. Market Segmentation & Scope
  • 1.2. Market Definition
  • 1.3. Information Procurement
    • 1.3.1. Purchased Database
    • 1.3.2. GVR's Internal Database
    • 1.3.3. Secondary Sources & Third-Party Perspectives
    • 1.3.4. Primary Research
  • 1.4. Information Analysis
    • 1.4.1. Data Analysis Models
  • 1.5. Market Formulation & Data Visualization
  • 1.6. Data Validation & Publishing

Chapter 2. Executive Summary

  • 2.1. Segmental Outlook
  • 2.2. Competitive Outlook

Chapter 3. Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market Variables, Trends & Scope

  • 3.1. Global Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market Outlook
  • 3.2. Penetration & Growth Prospect Mapping
  • 3.3. Industry Value Chain Analysis
    • 3.3.1. Raw Material Outlook
  • 3.4. Technology Overview
  • 3.5. Regulatory Framework
  • 3.6. Market Dynamics
    • 3.6.1. Market Driver Analysis
    • 3.6.2. Market Restraint Analysis
    • 3.6.3. Industry Challenges
  • 3.7. Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 3.7.1. Supplier Power
    • 3.7.2. Buyer Power
    • 3.7.3. Substitution Threat
    • 3.7.4. Threat from New Entrant
    • 3.7.5. Competitive Rivalry
  • 3.8. PESTEL Analysis
    • 3.8.1. Political Landscape
    • 3.8.2. Economic Landscape
    • 3.8.3. Social Landscape
    • 3.8.4. Technological Landscape
    • 3.8.5. Environmental Landscape
    • 3.8.6. Legal Landscape

Chapter 4. Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market: Application Outlook Estimates & Forecasts

  • 4.1. Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market: Application Movement Analysis, 2021 & 2030
  • 4.2. Oil & Gas
    • 4.2.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 4.3. Chemicals & Petrochemicals
    • 4.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 4.4. Construction & Infrastructure
    • 4.4.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 4.5. Industrial
    • 4.5.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)

Chapter 5. Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market Regional Outlook Estimates & Forecasts

  • 5.1. Regional Snapshot
  • 5.2. Carbon Steel Pipe Fittings Market: Regional Movement Analysis, 2021 & 2030
  • 5.3. North America
    • 5.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.3.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.3.3. U.S.
      • 5.3.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.3.3.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 5.4. Europe
    • 5.4.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.4.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.4.3. Germany
      • 5.4.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.4.3.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.4.4. Russia
      • 5.4.4.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.4.4.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.4.5. Turkey
      • 5.4.5.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.4.5.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 5.5. Asia Pacific
    • 5.5.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.5.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.5.3. China
      • 5.5.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.5.3.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.5.4. India
      • 5.5.4.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.5.4.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.5.5. Japan
      • 5.5.5.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.5.5.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 5.6. Central & South America
    • 5.6.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.6.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.6.3. Brazil
      • 5.6.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.6.3.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • 5.7. Middle East & Africa
    • 5.7.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.7.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
    • 5.7.3. Iran
      • 5.7.3.1. Market estimates and forecast, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
      • 5.7.3.2. Market estimates and forecast, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)

Chapter 6. Competitive Analysis

  • 6.1. Key Players & Recent Developments & Their Impact on The Industry
  • 6.2. Company Categorization (Market Leaders, Emerging Players, Key Innovators)
  • 6.3. Vendor Landscape
    • 6.3.1. List of Raw Material Suppliers, Distributors, and Other Prominent Manufacturers

Chapter 7. Company Profiles

  • 7.1. AWAJI MATERIA CO., LTD.
    • 7.1.1. Company Overview
    • 7.1.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.1.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.1.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.2. Bassi Luigi & C. S.p.A
    • 7.2.1. Company Overview
    • 7.2.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.2.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.2.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.3. Delcorte
    • 7.3.1. Company Overview
    • 7.3.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.3.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.3.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.4. Erne Fittings GmbH
    • 7.4.1. Company Overview
    • 7.4.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.4.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.4.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.5. M.E.G.A. S.p.A.
    • 7.5.1. Company Overview
    • 7.5.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.5.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.5.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.6. PARKER HANNIFIN CORP
    • 7.6.1. Company Overview
    • 7.6.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.6.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.6.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.7. S.S.E. Pipefittings Limited
    • 7.7.1. Company Overview
    • 7.7.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.7.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.7.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.8. SBC BEND CO., LTD
    • 7.8.1. Company Overview
    • 7.8.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.8.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.8.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.9. SUNGKWANG BEND CO., LTD.
    • 7.9.1. Company Overview
    • 7.9.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.9.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.9.4. Strategic Initiatives
  • 7.10. Thai Benkan Co., Ltd
    • 7.10.1. Company Overview
    • 7.10.2. Financial Performance
    • 7.10.3. Product Benchmarking
    • 7.10.4. Strategic Initiatives

List of Tables

  • Table 1. Carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 2. Carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, in oil & gas, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 3. Carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, in chemicals & petrochemicals, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 4. Carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, in construction & infrastructure, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 5. Carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, in industrial, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 6. North America carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 7. North America carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 8. North America carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 9. U.S. carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 10. U.S. carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 11. U.S. carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 12. Europe carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 13. Europe carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 14. Europe carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 15. Germany carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 16. Germany carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 17. Germany carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 18. Russia carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 19. Russia carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 20. Russia carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 21. Turkey carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 22. Turkey carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 23. Turkey carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 24. Asia Pacific carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 25. Asia Pacific carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 26. Asia Pacific carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 27. China carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 28. China carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 29. China carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 30. Japan carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 31. Japan carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 32. Japan carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 33. India carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 34. India carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 35. India carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 36. Central & South America carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 37. Central & South America carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 38. Central & South America carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 39. Brazil carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 40. Brazil carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 41. Brazil carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 42. Middle East & Africa carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 43. Middle East & Africa carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 44. Middle East & Africa carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)
  • Table 45. Iran carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Table 46. Iran carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million)
  • Table 47. Iran carbon steel pipe fittings market estimates and forecasts, by application, 2017 - 2030 (Kilotons)

List of Figures

  • Fig 1. Carbon steel pipe fittings market segmentation
  • Fig 2. Information procurement
  • Fig 3. Primary research pattern
  • Fig 4. Primary research process
  • Fig 5. Primary research approaches
  • Fig 6. Carbon steel pipe fittings market - Segmental outlook
  • Fig 7. Carbon steel pipe fittings market, 2017 - 2030 (USD Million) (Kilotons)
  • Fig 8. Penetration & growth prospect mapping
  • Fig 9. Carbon steel pipe fittings market - Value chain analysis
  • Fig 10. Market driver analysis
  • Fig 11. Market restraint analysis
  • Fig 12. Carbon steel pipe fittings market: Application movement analysis, 2021 & 2030 (%)
  • Fig 13. Carbon steel pipe fittings market: Regional snapshot
  • Fig 14. Carbon steel pipe fittings market: Regional movement analysis, 2021 & 2030 (%)