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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1393621
歐洲能源價格（2023 年 11 月）Europe Energy Prices (November 2023) |
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報告概述
這項研究提供了 2050 年歐洲燃料、碳和電力價格的全面展望。 儘管天然氣價格正在走軟，但預計市場將持續緊張，直到 2025 年新一波液化天然氣供應湧入市場。 2026年至2029年液化天然氣供應量大幅增加將重新平衡市場並維持價格較低，直到2030年恢復。 由於天然氣價格下降、短期電力需求減少以及再生能源安裝速度加快，預計到 2030 年電價將下降。
再生能源回收價格的蠶食和相關的限電風險將在 2030 年代初期惡化，導致產能成長放緩。 然而，隨著 2030 年代的進展，由於靈活資源（供需方）的成長和碳價格的上漲，價格水準預計將維持不變。
Report Summary:
“Europe energy prices” provides a comprehensive outlook for fuels, carbon and power prices in Europe to 2050. Gas prices have softened in this view, but market tightness will persist until 2025 when a new wave of LNG supply hits the market. Substantial LNG supply growth between 2026 and 2029 rebalances the market, keeping prices low, before a rebound from 2030. With lower gas prices, weaker power demand in the short term, and renewable build-out accelerating, power prices are forecast to decrease to 2030.
The cannibalization of renewable capture prices and associated curtailment risks worsen in the early 2030s, resulting in a moderation of capacity growth. However, as the 2030s progress, the growth of flexible resources (supply and demand-side) and rising carbon prices, will sustain price levels.
