2020年代電價的不確定性：氣價波動與核電下行趨勢

本報告針對近期市場背景的重大變化，提供了德國、法國、英國、意大利、伊比利亞、荷蘭和比利時到 2030 年電價和供應前景的最新信息。

主要發現：

• 預計2022年市場平均電價約為200歐元/兆瓦時。
• 比之前的預測減少 30 歐元/兆瓦時。 2022/24 年，核電降級將成為推動波動的主要因素，在大多數市場上使價格上漲超過 10 歐元/兆瓦時。
• 法國核電產量下降將導致市場供應平衡顯著惡化，但將被流向鄰近市場的淨流量減少和燃氣發電的相對成本所抵消在互連市場上可用。運動將受到影響。
• 英國和伊比利亞市場相對較低的天然氣價格支持了燃氣發電，並顯著增加了對法國的出口以填補供應缺口。

Report Summary:

In response to major, recent changes in the market background, this analysis updates our power price and supply outlook to 2030 for Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Iberia, Netherlands and Belgium. The analysis provides a framework for subsequent analysis as further market background changes emerge.

Key findings include:

• Market average power prices are forecast to be around 200 EUR/MWh in 2022

• a 30 EUR/MWh reduction on our previous view. In 2022/24, the nuclear downgrade becomes a key driver of change, adding over 10 EUR/MWh to the prices in most markets.

• Lower French nuclear output leads to a material weakening of the market's supply balance, offset by a reduction in net-flows to neighbouring markets, with movements driven by the relative cost of available gas-generation in those interconnected markets.

• Relatively lower gas prices in the GB and Iberian markets support gas-fired generation, with marked increases in exports to France to fill the supply gap.