市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1303462
北美和歐洲電動輕型商用車的傳動系統成長機會North American and European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Drivetrain Growth Opportunities |
先進的平台技術和跨車身風格的平台共享確保了先進傳動系統架構的未來成長潛力。
在強力的政府指令和激勵措施以及零件價格下降帶來的 TCO 改善的推動下,北美和歐洲的 eLCV(eLCV)行業將以 53.9%的年複合成長率成長,到2030年將達到350 萬輛。在eLCV的早期階段,主要使用eAxles,在2022年佔銷售額的近四分之三,但人們對車載驅動器的日益青睞意味著到2030年,它們將佔銷售額的一半以上。縮小到電動皮卡很可能採用車載驅動架構,而北美LCV行業以皮卡為主,因此未來車載驅動整體滲透率預計將保持較高水準。由於貨車是輕型商用車市場的主導,電動車軸預計將成為貨車的主要傳動系統選擇。然而,到2030年,在eAxles中,eAxles的滲透率將相對於eCrown有所下降。
車載馬達將繼續成為皮卡的主要驅動架構,而電子車軸,尤其是eCrown,將成為貨車的主要驅動架構。新的電動初創企業, 預計到 2030 年,貨車中車載馬達的普及率將在很大程度上歸功於 Canoo 和 Rivian等它們的貨車與各自的皮卡所使用的平台相同。電動皮卡預計將在2025年之後進入歐洲市場,除了大眾的 Amarok 電動皮卡外,主要由北美整車廠提供。許多重型車輛用途預計將採用靠近車輪的內側驅動架構,以實現最佳扭矩傳遞和高功率輸出。隨著公司放棄舊平台並採用更新的純電動平台,驅動架構偏好預計會發生相應變化,產生更強大、更高效和更靈活的架構。
Advanced Platform Technology and Platform Sharing Across Body Styles to Ensure Future Growth Potential of Advanced Drivetrain Architectures
The elk industry in North America and Europe is expected to grow at a CAGR of 53.9% until 2030 to 3.5 million units, driven by strong government mandates and incentives, and improving TCO because of falling component prices. The initial phase of eLCVs will predominantly use eAxles, making up nearly three-fourths of the sales in 2022; however, this is expected to shrink to just more than half of sales by 2030 because of the growing preference for in-board drives. Electric pickups are likely to use in-board drive architecture, and with the North American LCV industry being predominantly pickup based, the overall penetration of in-board drive is expected to remain high even in the future. Being a van-dominant LCV market, eAxles are expected to be the major drivetrain option for vans; however, within eAxles, the penetration of eCarrier is likely to decline, when compared to eCrown, by 2030.
In-board motors will remain the dominant drive architecture within pickups, whereas eAxles, especially eCrown, will be the dominant drive architecture in vans. Higher penetration of in-board motors in vans by 2030 is expected to be largely down to new electric start-ups, such as Canoo and Rivian, basing their vans on the same platform as the ones used for their respective pickups. Electric pickups are expected to hit the European market only after 2025 majorly from North American OEMs, in addition to VW's Amarok electric. eAxles currently provide the best balance in terms of price, performance, and durability; however, in-board architecture offers the best performance in terms of efficiency and durability. Many heavy-duty applications are expected to employ in-board drive architecture that is placed close to the wheels to provide optimum torque transfer and high power output. As companies transform from older platforms and adopt newer pure electric platforms, the drive architecture preference is also expected to shift accordingly, to more powerful, efficient, and flexible architectures.