全球輕型、中型和重型商用車市場展望（2023年）

本報告審視和分析了全球輕型、中型和重型商用車市場，提供有關每個地區的顯著法規和趨勢、全球經濟前景和增長機會的資訊。

內容

戰略要務

• 為什麼成長越來越難？
• 戰略要務 8 (TM)
• 三大戰略要務對 LCV、MD 和 HD 卡車行業的影響
• 增長機會推動增長 Pipeline Engine(TM)

成長環境

• 主要發現：2022 年摘要
• 主要發現：2023 年 5 大預測
• 值得注意的法規和義務：概覽
• 輕型商用車市場
• MD/HD 卡車市場

範圍和分段

• 調查範圍
• 市場細分

世界經濟展望（2023）

• 全球經濟五大亮點（2022年）
• 全球經濟五大亮點（2023年）
• 全球 GDP 增長預測
• 主要國家的衰退/放緩預測
• 全球 GDP 增長概況
• 發達經濟體預測（2023 年）
• 新興經濟體預測（2023 年）
• 區域風險和政策方向（2023 年）
• 主要增長機會：按地區劃分（2023 年）

趨勢

• 全球商用車市場：主要趨勢
• 趨勢的影響：按地區劃分
• 趨勢 1：車隊向零排放車輛過渡
• 趨勢 2：以電動汽車為中心的車輛管理解決方案
• 趨勢 3：併購促進充電基礎設施建設
• 趨勢 4：引入 TaaS
• 趨勢 5：燃料電池動力 CV 的出現

輕型商用車市場展望

• 市場預測
• 市場預測：按地區、按類別
• 輕型商用車 OEM 銷售業績
• 動力總成技術預測
• 預計主要 OEM 將推出 eLCV

MD/HD卡車市場前景

• 市場預測
• 市場預測：按地區、按類別
• MD/HD 卡車 OEM 銷售結果
• 動力總成技術預測
• 主要 OEM 預計將推出 eMD/HD 卡車

LCV/MD/HD卡車市場區域分析

• 區域分析：北美
• OEM動力總成技術平台：北美
• 區域分析：歐洲
• OEM 動力總成技術平台：歐洲
• 區域分析：中國
• OEM動力總成技術平台：中國
• 區域分析：印度
• OEM動力總成技術平台：印度
• 區域分析：拉丁美洲
• OEM動力總成技術平台：拉丁美洲
• 區域分析：東盟
• OEM動力總成技術平台：東盟

商用車的主要趨勢

• 連接性
• 電氣化
• 售後市場
• L4級自動駕駛
• 關鍵領域取得的進展

增長機會

• 增長機會 1：充電基礎設施
• 增長機會 2：氫燃料電池生態系統
• 增長機會 3：卡車即服務

下一步

Growth Regions China and India Drive Truck Demand Amid Continued Market Uncertainties

In this report, Frost & Sullivan studies the light commercial vehicle (LCV) and medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) truck segments for six regions: North America, Europe, China, India, Latin America, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study period is 2022-2023, with 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the forecast year.

We segment the market by gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR); LCVs have a GVWR lower than 6 tons, while M&HD trucks have a GVWR equal to or above 6 tons. The subsegments in LCVs are pickups, vans, and cab-over-engine trucks. M&HD trucks comprise MD and HD trucks. The powertrain types include diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles (EVs).

Our analysis shows that the war in Ukraine had a cascading effect on multiple sectors of the global economy, with the overall business sentiment taking a huge hit. Supply chain constraints due to the war took inflation to unprecedented levels globally, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates. This increased the financing cost to purchase new equipment. Volatile energy markets resulted in a sharp rise in fuel prices, which ate into the profit margins of fleet operators. The truck market in Europe contracted by 18.3% in 2022. The truck market in China plummeted in 2022, contracting by over 50% due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in most of the country, which led to lockdowns and tight curfew controls.

However, not all developments in 2022 were adverse. Established as well as new and upcoming original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the space launched several electric truck models. Tesla delivered its first semi-tractor trucks in December 2022, starting with Pepsi. The EV ecosystem dynamics rose to a different level, with companies from diverse backgrounds coming together, resulting in partnerships between OEMs, energy companies, and charging providers. Newer business models such as truck-as-a-service (TaaS) are gaining traction thanks to Volta Trucks, Quantron, and Nikola.

Frost & Sullivan expects economic challenges faced in 2022 to continue in 2023 as the situation has remained largely the same, especially with regard to the war. We anticipate rising fears of a recession in North America to make businesses and fleets more cautious about new purchases and investments. The market situation in Europe is still uncertain due to the status of the war, with little indication of its development. However, China and India will be the bright spots for the trucking industry in 2023, with improving macro indicators and demand from growing infrastructure activity.

The report offers stakeholders insights into the commercial vehicles market using the following:

• Recaps of 2022 and predictions for 2023
• Notable regulations and trends by region
• Global economic outlook
• LCV and M&HD segments outlook through sales, OEMs, powertrain technology, and product launches
• Analysis by region
• Growth opportunities

Key Issues Addressed:

• Trends impacting the global truck industry?
• The size of the global truck industry in 2022, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
• Expected volume growth in 2023 and drivers in different regions?
• Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
• Top OEM performers in 2022 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the LCV, MD, and HD Truck Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Key Findings: A Recap of 2022
• Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2023
• Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
• LCV Market
• M&HD Truck Market

Scope and Segmentation

• Research Scope
• Market Segmentation

2023 Global Economic Outlook

• Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2022
• Top 5 Global Economic Highlights of 2023
• Global GDP Growth Expectations
• Recessionary/Slowdown Expectations for Major Economies
• Global GDP Growth Snapshot
• Advanced Economy Predictions for 2023
• Emerging Economy Predictions for 2023
• 2023 Regional Risks and Policy Direction
• 2023 Top Growth Opportunities by Region

Trends

• Global Commercial Vehicle Market: Top Trends
• Impact of Trends by Region
• Trend 1: Fleets Moving to Zero-emission Vehicles
• Trend 2: EV-centric Fleet Management Solutions
• Trend 3: M&As Drive Charging Infrastructure
• Trend 4: TaaS Adoption
• Trend 5: Emergence of Fuel Cell-powered CVs

LCV Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• LCV OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eLCV Launches

M&HD Truck Market Outlook

• Market Forecast
• Market Forecast by Region and Category
• M&HD Truck OEM Sales Performance
• Powertrain Technology Forecast
• Key OEMs' Anticipated eM&HD Truck Launches

LCV and M&HD Truck Market Regional Analysis

• Regional Analysis: North America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America
• Regional Analysis: Europe
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Europe
• Regional Analysis: China
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: China
• Regional Analysis: India
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: India
• Regional Analysis: Latin America
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: Latin America
• Regional Analysis: ASEAN
• OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: ASEAN

Major Commercial Vehicle Trends

• Connectivity
• Electrification
• Aftermarket
• Autonomous L4
• Progress in Key Areas

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Electric Charging Infrastructure
• Growth Opportunity 2: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ecosystem
• Growth Opportunity 3: Truck-as-a-Service

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer