開放式 vRAN 全球市場分析（2024 年 3 月）

本報告深入探討了無線存取網路(RAN) 虛擬化和去中心化，從基本的RAN 功能虛擬化(vRAN) 到Open RAN 等新的開放架構- 傳統供應商我們正在分析各種想法，以減少對專用 RAN 設備，從 TIP Initiative 到遵循 O-RAN 聯盟規範。 vRAN細分資料是根據現有RAN市場規模及其預測推斷的，依地區分為2G/3G/4G和5G、vCU/vDU和RU，以及室內DAS替代需求的可能性。 本報告涵蓋了廣泛且新興的供應商生態系統。 最後，我們稱這個市場為Open vRAN，因為Open RAN 95%以上都是vRAN。

目錄

分析概述

要點

Open RAN/vRAN 市場年成長率 (YoY) 保持穩定（2023 年）

• 雖然試驗、驗證和認證工作不斷擴大，但商業部署仍然停滯不前。
  • 事實證明，焦點已從 Open RAN 轉向 5G SA
• Dish 和 Rakuten Mobile 端：Rakuten Symphony 管道並未實現，但 1&1 最終實現了
• 日本希望向世界展示 "開放 RAN/vRAN 島" 是什麼樣的
  • 日本歡迎Fujitsu和 NEC 加入 Open RAN/vRAN 領導委員會
  • ...然而，2023 年，Samsung迎頭趕上並取代了Fujitsu的位置。
  • Samsung和Fujitsu是 RU、Rakuten Symphony 和 Mavenir 領先 CU/DU 的頂級供應商

市場低迷將再持續一年，2025年將是突破之年：你準備好起飛了嗎？

• 2024 年第一季：繼 2023 年第四季的強勁表現之後，許多大型 Open RAN 專案將陸續推出。
• AT&T 部署：不會在 2024 年第四季前開始
• 2025 年：全球轉型的一年
  • 開放式 vRAN 在全球傳統 RAN 銷售的滲透率：從 2024 年的 4.6% 到 2029 年的 29%
  • 亞太地區目前是全球最大的開放 vRAN 市場，但美國正在經歷重大覺醒。
  • 在投資 Open RAN 的國家中，美國的目標是佔國際主導地位
  • 因此，2025 年 RAN 在北美的銷售滲透率將達到 20%，到 2029 年將達到 58%
  • 幾乎所有商業 Open RAN 網路都將在軟體中運行 RAN 功能
  • vRAN 和 Open RAN：兩種不同的配置
  • Dish 和 Rakuten Mobile 將雲端 RAN 推向黃金時段
  • 正如 NTT Docomo 向世界展示的那樣，Open RAN 不必虛擬化

雖然開放 vRAN 復興開始，但生態系統的可持續性面臨壓力

• 雖然老問題依然存在，但反對派的主張依然堅定不移
• 同時，龐大的 Open RAN 生態系統不斷發展、整合和重建。
  • 早期的 Open RAN 採用者採用了多供應商方法…
  • …目前正受到這場文藝復興的棕地採用者和建築師的攻擊
  • 在這個 5G 已過巔峰的時代，一級 CSP 被Ericsson和Nokia龐大的 5G 足跡所鎖定
  • 現階段，主要的 1 級 CSP 正在嘗試採取與 AT&T 相同的做法，並嚴重依賴單一主要供應商進行開放式 vRAN 部署。
  • 因此，整合和重組正在進行中。
  • 日本的 Open RAN 生態系統也不例外。
  • OREX：創建 Rakuten Symphony 的克隆
• 以上都是華為被排除的直接結果
  • 在世界上大多數國家，禁止中國供應商的使命已經完成…
  • ……國際合作正值高峰
  • 這促使了區域/國家層面的一系列措施。

開放式 vRAN：一般室內使用案例的有力候選者，特別是 DAS 的替代品

• 目前基於 C-RAN 的 DAS 架構為 Open vRAN 升級提供了許多機會。
  • 到 2026 年，室內 Open vRAN/Open DAS 市場將超過室內 DAS
  • 到目前為止，中立主機功能保護了 DAS 市場，但 Open vRAN 可能會摧毀它
  • 私人無線網路目前仍是開放式 vRAN 的利基市場，但佔大型企業部署的 90%
  • 傳統 RAN
  • 但隨著 DAS 替代品轉移到較小的地點，Open vRAN 最終將滲透到中小企業領域
  • 室內 5G 覆蓋：vRAN 背後的驅動力
  • JMA Wireless 在這個 DAS 儲存桶中是獨一無二的

This report takes a deep dive into the virtualization and disaggregation of radio access networks and analyzes the various schools of thoughts ranging from basic virtualization of RAN functions (vRAN) to new open architectures such as open RAN, following the TIP initiative and the O-RAN Alliance specifications, designed to cut the dependency on proprietary RAN equipment supplied by the traditional vendors. The vRAN segment is taken from our existing RAN size and forecasts and broken down by 2G/3G/4G versus 5G, as well as by vCU/vDU and RU for each region, and also looks at the potential for indoor DAS replacement. The report covers a wide emerging ecosystem of vendors. Lastly, as more than 95% of open RAN deployments are vRAN, we call this market open vRAN.

About the Author

Stephane Teral, Founder & Chief Analyst.

With over 35 years of experience in the telecommunications industry, including 28 years in Silicon Valley, Stephane Teral is regarded as one of the top analysts in his field, having been the trusted advisor at some of the world's largest telecom providers and manufacturers. He specializes in next-generation wireless infrastructure including 5G and 6G, network disaggregation and automation, cloud and quantum networking, programmable core networks and communications service provider digital transformation.

As an advisor to start-ups, service providers, vendors and the investment community, Stephane helps clients identify new market opportunities, conducts due diligence, and advises on positioning, product development, business plans and M&A. A highly sought thinker and speaker, Stephane is frequently quoted in prestigious publications such as The Economist, Nikkei Asia, Le Monde, Les Echos, L'Usine Nouvelle, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. He also chairs and presents at global industry events including Brooklyn 6G Summit, FYUZ, GSMA Mobile World Congress, OCP Regional Summit, and NGMN IC&E. Stephane has been a frequent expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards, such as the GSMA Global Mobile Awards (the GLOMOS), and the Layer123 World Congress.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

IN 2023, THE OPEN RAN/VRAN MARKET STAYED FLAT YOY

• WHILE TRIALS, TESTING AND CERTIFICATION EFFORTS KEEP SWELLING, COMMERCIAL ROLLOUTS HAVE PAUSED
  • We found that the focus shifted from open RAN to 5G SA
• DONE WITH DISH AND RAKUTEN MOBILE; RAKUTEN SYMPHONY'S PIPELINE DID NOT MATERIALIZE BUT 1&1 FINALLY DELIVERED!
• JAPAN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WORLD WHAT AN OPEN RAN/VRAN ISLAND LOOKS LIKE
  • Japan has propelled Fujitsu and NEC to the open RAN/vRAN leadership board...
  • ...But in 2023, Samsung caught up and dethroned Fujitsu
  • Samsung and Fujitsu are the top RU suppliers while Rakuten Symphony and Mavenir lead CU/DU

THE MARKET LULL EXTENDS FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND 2025 WILL BE THE TRIGGER YEAR, READY FOR TAKEOFF?

• 1Q24 FOLLOWS A STRONG 4Q23 FULL OF SUBSTANTIAL OPEN RAN PROJECTS
• WE DO NOT EXPECT AT&T ROLLOUT TO KICK IN BEFORE 4Q24
• 2025 WILL BE THE GLOBAL SWITCH YEAR
  • The open vRAN penetration of the global traditional RAN sales is expected to hit 29% in 2029, up from 4.6% in 2024
  • So far, Asia Pacific is the world's largest open vRAN market but the U.S. is awakening in a big way
  • Among the countries ploughing money into open RAN, the U.S. is pushing for gLobal dominance
  • Consequently, North America is poised to hit the 20% RAN sales penetration bar in 2025 and reach 58% by 2029
  • We believe nearly all commercial open RAN networks will be running RAN functions on software
  • vRAN and open RAN are 2 different configurations
  • DISH and Rakuten Mobile bring cloud RAN to prime time
  • As NTT docomo showed the world, an open RAN does not need to be virtual

WHILE THE OPEN VRAN RENAISSANCE BEGINS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE

• AS SOME OLD CHALLENGES REMAIN, THE NAYSAYERS STICK TO THEIR GUNS
• IN THE MEANTIME, A VAST OPEN RAN ECOSYSTEM KEEPS DEVELOPING, CONSOLIDATING AND RESTRUCTURING
  • The early greenfield open RAN adopters embraced the multi-vendor approach...
  • ...which is now under attack by the brownfield adopters and actors of this renaissance
  • In this post 5G peak era, Tier 1 CSPs are locked in with abundant 5G footprints from Ericsson and Nokia
  • At this stage, large Tier 1 CSPs seem inclined to do what AT&T is doing and lean heavily on a single big supplier for their open vRAN deployments
  • Consequently, consolidation and restructuring are chugging along
  • Lastly, the Japanese open RAN ecosystem is not immune either
  • OREX: the creation of a Rakuten Symphony clone
• ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE HUAWEI BAN
  • For most of the world, the mission to ban the Chinese vendors is accomplished...
  • ...And international cooperation is at its best
  • This also drove the creation of a flurry of regional and national initiatives

OPEN VRAN IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR INDOOR USE CASES IN GENERAL AND AS A DAS REPLACEMENT IN PARTICULAR

• CURRENT C-RAN-BASED DAS ARCHITECTURES OFFER PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPEN VRAN UPGRADES
  • In 2026, the indoor open vRAN/open DAS market will surpass indoor DAS
  • The neutral host capability has been protecting the DAS market so far but open vRAN can kill it all together
  • Private wireless networks remain an open vRAN niche for now but 90% of large enterprise installations
  • traditional RAN
  • However, as DAS replacement shifts to smaller venues, open vRAN will eventually penetrate the SME space at some point
  • Indoor 5G coverage is the vRAN driving force
  • In this DAS bucket, JMA Wireless is unique