全球電動中型和大型客車市場：技術展望、趨勢、市場分析和預測 - 按推廣細分、組成、應用和地區 - 預測（截至 2030 年）

電動中型和大型客車（9-14m）的市場規模預計將從2023年的66,593輛成長到2030年的171,000輛，預測期內複合年成長率為14.4%。

預計純電動車將成為預測期內最大的市場：

預計純電動車將在預測期內引領市場。隨著世界越來越意識到環境問題，汽車OEM和政府機構正在努力減少碳足跡，而純電動車符合這些願望。一些政府機構正在製定策略，用電動交通解決方案取代現有的公共車輛。由於優惠的獎勵和稅收優惠，先進、遠距、純電動中型和大型客車的銷售量預計將大幅成長。此外，純電動車的運作效率相對較高，約為 90%，而內燃機的運作效率為 30% 至 40%。 BEV 的平均續航里程為 150-250 英里，具體取決於電池類型，例如 LFP 或 NMC。這種高效的電池容量意味著用於為公車提供動力來源的電力比柴油更便宜，從而進一步降低了公車的營運成本。純電動車的運動部件較少，因此維護成本較低。隨著純電動客車技術的不斷發展，電動客車將提供更廣泛的尺寸和配置，以滿足不同應用和市場的需求。

校車在北美市場有顯著的成長機會：

校車是美國主要的公車領域，預計到 2030 年該領域的電氣化率將達到約 45%。擴張的主要動力是美國環保署 (EPA) 的清潔校車返利計劃，該計劃已承諾提供超過 9 億美元的資金，並在 389 個學區購買了 2,400 多輛電動校車。北美OEM在零排放客車技術方面也表現出色，並致力於創新。憑藉先進的電池技術，這些公司開發了高效能的電動中型和重型公車，並計劃在未來幾年內實現整個校車車隊的電氣化。

本報告調查了全球電動中型和大型客車市場，總結了市場概況、市場影響因素分析、市場規模趨勢和預測，以及各個細分市場和地區的詳細分析。

目錄

• 市場定義
• 市場分類
• 調查方法：依地區及動力傳動系統
• 影響電動客車市場的因素
• 由於電動車的普及，主要地區的公車銷量
• 中大型客車市場普及：全球
• 中大型客車市場普及：世界 vs 中國
• 全球中大型客車市場（含中國）
• 全球中大型客車市場（不含中國）
• 歐洲及北美中大型客車市場
• XEV成長率
• 全球純電動中型和大型客車市場（按應用）
• 北美純電動中大型客車市場：依應用分類
• 全球中大型客車市場（按地區及推廣細分）
• 市場佔有率分析：全球中大型客車市場
• 歐洲：電動中大型客車市場及主要OEM
  • 電動客車市場：影響的主要趨勢
  • 清潔車輛指令
  • 主要電動客車OEM
  • 中大型客車市場：依動力傳動系統
  • 純電動中大型客車市場：依應用分類
  • 客車銷售（依國家/地區）：柴油/汽油/天然氣 vs 電池電動
  • 電動中型和大型客車市場及其車型：按長度和OEM
  • 市場佔有率分析 - 電動客車製造商眾多
  • TIV 成長
• 北美：電動中大型客車市場及主要OEM
  • 電動客車市場：影響的主要趨勢
  • 電動公車激勵計劃
  • 主要電動客車OEM
  • 中大型客車市場：依動力傳動系統
  • 純電動中大型客車市場：依應用分類
  • 客車銷售（依國家/地區）：柴油/汽油/天然氣 vs 電池電動
  • 電動中大型客車市場（依長度、OEM、車型、整車尺寸分）
  • OEM型號、技術規格、持有單位數量
  • 美國：標準巴士指南
• 中國：中大型客車和主要OEM的電動客車市場
  • 電動客車市場：影響的主要趨勢
  • 電動公車獎勵計劃以及公車和遠距公車補貼
  • 主要電動客車OEM
  • 中大型客車市場：依動力傳動系統
  • 純電動中大型客車市場：依應用分類
  • OEM型號和技術規格
  • 市場佔有率分析 - 主要和中型客車製造商的大量存在
• 亞太地區（不含中國）：中大型客車市場及主要OEM
  • 中大型客車市場：依動力傳動系統
  • 純電動中大型客車市場：依應用分類
  • 客車銷售（依國家/地區）：柴油/汽油/天然氣 vs 電池電動
  • 亞太地區（不包括中國）：電動客車市場現狀
• 印度：中大型客車和主要OEM的電動客車市場
  • 電動客車市場：影響的主要趨勢
  • 印度：電動客車市場概況
  • 中大型客車市場：依動力傳動系統
  • 電動巴士訂單數量：按城市和巴士製造商分類
  • 車廠充電價值鏈,營運模式多元,主要企業
  • 市場佔有率分析和產品比較
  • 競爭基準化分析
  • 未來幾年補貼要求將會上升
• 不斷擴大的電動客車市場生態系統
• 因各種條件而導致的里程變化
• 國家/地區的尺寸限制（法規/當前硬體要求）
• 需求群：依載客量/客流量
• 長度/乘客數/座位數：EV/ICE，1層
• 長度/座位數：EV，1 層
• 技術藍圖
• 價值鏈分析
• 總擁有成本 (TCO) 和材料清單(BOM)
• 跨客戶群的主要趨勢
• 財務模型
• 估計業務指標

The global electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market size is projected to grow from 66,593 units in 2023 to 171,000 units by 2030, at a CAGR of 14.4%.

The growth of the electric mid- & large bus market is primarily fueled by the impending emission regulations with stricter limits and a rising preference for sustainable transportation. Despite being in its early stages of development, the main challenge confronting this industry is the elevated cost of electric mid- & large buses in comparison to traditional diesel buses, mainly attributed to the substantial expense of batteries. The principal obstacle faced by this market revolves around safety apprehensions and the limited range associated with battery-powered buses.

Moreover, the growing focus on electrical infrastructure with supportive government efforts, as well as the development of charging stations, are some of the factors that will significantly contribute to market growth during the forecast period.

"BEV is expected to be the largest market in the forecast period."

BEV dominate the electric mid- & large bus market worldwide during the review period. Automotive OEMs and government agencies are striving to reduce the carbon footprint as worldwide awareness of environmental issues grows, and BEVs align with these aspirations. Several government agencies are strategizing to replace their existing public fleets with electric mobility solutions. With lucrative incentives and tax benefits provided, the sales of advanced and long-range pure electric mid- & large buses are anticipated to experience a significant surge. It also has relatively higher operational efficiency, about 90%, compared to ICE, which is 30-40%. The average range of BEVs is 150 to 250 miles and varies based on battery type installation such as LFP or NMC. Due to this efficient battery capacity, electricity used to power the buses is less expensive than diesel, further lowering the operational costs for buses. BEVs have fewer moving components, resulting in lower maintenance costs. As the technology for pure electric mid- & large buses continues to evolve, a broader range of electric mid- & large buses is likely to be available in different sizes and configurations to meet the needs of different applications and markets.

"School buses will have considerable growth opportunities in the North American market."

School Buses contribute a major portion of the US buses segment and around 45% electrification is expected in this segment by 2030. The predominant factor driving this expansion is the Clean School Bus Rebate Program by the LIS Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which granted over USD 900 million for the acquisition of more than 2,400 electric school buses by 389 school districts. California continues to spearhead the adoption of electric school buses, with a commitment to over 1,800 units statewide, of which at least 35% are already delivered or in operation. This figure surpasses the next leading state, Maryland, by more than fivefold, as they have 361 commitments. Notably, New York experienced the most significant surge since September 2022, with 184 new commitments. OEMS in North America excels in zero-emission bus technology and has a strong focus on innovation. With advanced battery technology, these players are planning to develop efficient electric mid- & large buses to electrify the entire school bus fleet in the coming years.

"Europe is expected to be the second largest electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market."

Europe offers a significant opportunity for the electric mid- & large bus market as the regulations related to the environment have become stringent in the region. These regulations drive market players to test and develop advanced vehicles, which will further boost the electric mid- & large bus market. According to the National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency, Germany aims to have at least 50% of all new buses purchased by public transport authorities and companies to be electric by 2025, with the target increasing to 100% by 2030. Europe is home to major electric mid- & large bus manufacturers and is renowned for innovations, cutting-edge R&D, and technological advancements in electric mid- & large bus. Government support through incentives and tax benefits, the presence of individual investors, and technological edge drive the European electric mid- & large bus market. European market to tend toward 100% BEV city/transit buses post 2025 and this will lead to markets such as Germany, France, and the UK having more than 3,000 BEV sales per year.

Breakdown of primaries

The study contains various industry experts' insights, from component suppliers to Tier 1 companies and OEMs. The break-up of the primaries is as follows:

By Company Type: OEMs - 80%, Tier I/Other players - 10%

By Designation: C level - 70%, Others- 30%

By Region: Asia Pacific - 70%, Europe - 20%, North America - 10%

The key players in the electric mid- & large bus market are BYD (China), Yutong (China), CAF (Solaris) (Spain), VDL Groep (Netherlands), and AB Volvo (Sweden). The key strategies adopted by major companies to sustain their position in the market are expansions, contracts and agreements, and partnerships. These companies have set up R&D facilities and offer best-in-class products to their customers.

Research Coverage:

The market study covers the electric mid- & large bus market by propulsion (BEV, HEV/PHEV, FCEV, and Diesel/Gasoline/NG), Configuration (Light Duty, Heavy Duty, Coach), Application (City/Transit Bus, Coaches, Midi Bus, and School Bus) and Region (Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America). It also covers the competitive landscape and company profiles of the major players in the electric mid- & large bus market ecosystem.

Key Benefits of the Report

The study also includes an in-depth competitive analysis of the key players in the market, along with their company profiles, key observations related to product and business offerings, recent developments, and key market strategies.

The report will help the market leaders/new entrants in this market with information on the closest approximations of the revenue numbers for the overall electric mid- & large bus market and the subsegments. This report will help stakeholders understand the competitive landscape and gain more insights to position their businesses better and plan suitable go-to-market strategies. The report also helps stakeholders understand the pulse of the market and provides them with information on key market drivers, restraints, challenges, and opportunities.

The report provides insights on the following pointers:

• Analysis of key drivers (The increasing need for sustainable mass transit solutions and the need to reduce GHG emissions), restraints (Safety Concerns in EV batteries and high development costs), opportunities (Transition towards hydrogen fuel cell electric mobility, electric mid- & large bus as a service), and challenges (High cost of developing charging infrastructure) influencing the growth of the electric mid- & large bus market
• Product Development/Innovation: Detailed insights on upcoming technologies, research & development activities, and new product & service launches in the electric mid- & large bus market
• Market Development: Comprehensive information about lucrative markets - the report analyses the electric mid- & large bus market across varied regions
• Market Diversification: Exhaustive information about new products & services, untapped geographies, recent developments, and investments in the electric mid- & large bus market
• Competitive Assessment: In-depth assessment of market shares, growth strategies, and service offerings of leading players like BYD (Build Your Dreams) (China), CRRC Electric (China), Yutong (China), and AB Volvo (Sweden), among others in the electric mid- & large bus market

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. DEFINITIONS, RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, AND ASSUMPTIONS

• 1.1 MARKET DEFINITIONS
• 1.2 MARKET SEGMENTATION
  • 1.2.1 BY CONFIGURATION AND SEATING CAPACITY
  • 1.2.2 BY POWERTRAIN
• 1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, BY REGION AND POWERTRAIN
• 1.4 FACTORS INFLUENCING ELECTRIC BUS MARKET

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. MARKET LANDSCAPE

• 3.1 BUS SALES ACROSS KEY REGIONS WITH EV PENETRATION
• 3.2 GLOBAL UPTAKE OF MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
• 3.3 CHINA VS. GLOBAL UPTAKE OF MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
• 3.4 GLOBAL MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET (INCL. CHINA)
• 3.5 GLOBAL MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET (EXCL. CHINA)
• 3.6 EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
• 3.7 GROWTH RATE OF XEVS
• 3.8 GLOBAL BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
• 3.9 NORTH AMERICA: BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
• 3.10 GLOBAL ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY REGION AND PROPULSION
• 3.11 MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS: GLOBAL MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET
• 3.12 EUROPE: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
  • 3.12.1 EUROPE: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
  • 3.12.2 EUROPE: CLEAN VEHICLE DIRECTIVES
  • 3.12.3 EUROPE: KEY ELECTRIC BUS OEMS
  • 3.12.4 EUROPE: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
  • 3.12.5 EUROPE: BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
  • 3.12.6 EUROPE: DIESEL/GASOLINE/NG VS. BATTERY ELECTRIC BUS SALES, BY COUNTRY
  • 3.12.7 EUROPE: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY LENGTH AND OEM, ALONG WITH THEIR MODELS
  • 3.12.8 EUROPE: MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS - SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OF ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
  • 3.12.9 GROWTH OF EUROPEAN TOTAL INDUSTRY VOLUME (TIV)
• 3.13 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
  • 3.13.1 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
  • 3.13.2 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC BUS INCENTIVE PROGRAMS
  • 3.13.3 NORTH AMERICA: KEY ELECTRIC BUS OEMS
  • 3.13.4 NORTH AMERICA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
  • 3.13.5 NORTH AMERICA: BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
  • 3.13.6 NORTH AMERICA: DIESEL/GASOLINE/NG VS. BATTERY ELECTRIC BUS SALES, BY COUNTRY
  • 3.13.7 NORTH AMERICA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY LENGTH AND OEM, ALONG WITH THEIR MODELS AND FLEET SIZES
  • 3.13.8 NORTH AMERICA: OEM MODELS, TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS, AND FLEET SIZES
  • 3.13.9 US: STANDARD BUS GUIDELINES (HEIGHT, SEATING, AND PROCUREMENT-RELATED GUIDELINES)
• 3.14 CHINA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
  • 3.14.1 CHINA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
  • 3.14.2 CHINA: ELECTRIC BUS INCENTIVE PROGRAMS AND SUBSIDIES FOR TRANSIT BUSES AND COACHES
  • 3.14.3 CHINA: KEY ELECTRIC BUS OEMS
  • 3.14.4 CHINA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
  • 3.14.5 CHINA BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
  • 3.14.6 CHINA: OEMS MODELS AND TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
  • 3.14.7 CHINA: MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS - SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OF LARGE AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUS MAKERS
• 3.15 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
  • 3.15.1 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
  • 3.15.2 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): BATTERY ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY APPLICATION
  • 3.15.3 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): DIESEL/GASOLINE/NG VS. BATTERY ELECTRIC BUS SALES, BY COUNTRY
  • 3.15.4 ASIA PACIFIC (EXCL. CHINA): ELECTRIC BUS MARKET CONDITIONS
• 3.16 INDIA: ELECTRIC MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET AND KEY OEMS
  • 3.16.1 INDIA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET - KEY INFLUENCING TRENDS
  • 3.16.2 INDIA: ELECTRIC BUS MARKET OVERVIEW
  • 3.16.3 INDIA: MEDIUM AND LARGE BUS MARKET, BY POWERTRAIN
  • 3.16.4 INDIA: ELECTRIC BUS ORDERS RECEIVED, BY CITY AND BUS MANUFACTURER
  • 3.16.5 INDIA: DEPOT CHARGING VALUE CHAIN WITH DIFFERENT OPERATION MODELS AND MAJOR COMPANIES
  • 3.16.6 INDIA: MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS AND PRODUCT COMPARISON
  • 3.16.7 INDIA: COMPETITIVE BENCHMARKING - 12 M ELECTRIC BUS SPECIFICATIONS FOR MAJOR PLAYERS
  • 3.16.8 INDIA: SUBSIDY REQUIREMENTS TO RISE IN COMING YEARS

4. CONTENT INTRODUCTION

• 4.1 EXTENDED ELECTRIC BUS MARKET ECOSYSTEM

5. PRODUCT

• 5.1 DRIVING RANGE VARIATIONS UNDER DIFFERENT CONDITIONS
• 5.2 EXTERIOR SIZE LIMITATION, BY COUNTRY (REGULATIONS AND CURRENT HARDWARE CONDITIONS)
• 5.3 NEEDS GROUP, BY PASSENGER CAPACITY AND PASSENGER FLOW
• 5.4 LENGTH X PAX/NUMBER OF SEATS - EUR, EV/ICE, SINGLE-DECKER
• 5.5 LENGTH X NUMBER OF SEATS - EUR, EV, SINGLE-DECKER
• 5.6 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
  • 5.6.1 ELECTRIC MOTOR TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
  • 5.6.2 FUTURE OF BATTERY CHEMISTRIES
  • 5.6.3 BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
  • 5.6.4 CHARGING STRATEGIES FOR ELECTRIC BUSES
  • 5.6.5 GROWTH OF ELECTRIC BUS PLATFORMS
• 5.7 VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS
• 5.8 TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP (TCO) AND BILL OF MATERIALS (BOM)

6. CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS

• 6.1 KEY TRENDS ACROSS CUSTOMER GROUPS (OPERATORS/CITY, DRIVERS, USERS)

7. MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE (MAAS) BUSINESS MODEL FOR ELECTRIC BUSES

• 7.1 FINANCIAL MODELS
• 7.2 BUSINESS METRICS ESTIMATES

8. ELECTRIC BUS CASE STUDIES

9. RECOMMENDATIONS