美國電力市場遠期曲線檢驗

報告摘要

雖然現貨電力市場可能會受到需求過剩、機組意外停電和意外天氣事件等事件的驅動，但遠期市場更像是一個虛無縹緲的實體。隨著時間的發展，發電和輸電中斷訊息變得稀少。天然氣遠期定價和現貨電力市場最近發生的事情實際上是這些市場新訊息的兩個一致來源。因此，這些功率曲線中通常存在一定量的風險溢價，尤其是在冬季和夏季。

本報告提供美國的電力市場相關調查分析，量化遠期市場對全國各種功率曲線施加了多少風險溢價。還研究了過去一年中夏季和冬季月份的遠期曲線是如何演變的。具體來說，探討了天然氣價格與遠期電力價格的比較，以及現貨市場對曲線產生的影響類型。

Report Summary:

While the spot power market can be driven by events like overperforming demand, unplanned unit outages and unexpected weather events, the forward market is more of an ethereal entity. Generation and transmission outage information becomes sparse as time progresses. Where natural gas forwards are priced and recent happenings in spot power markets are really the two consistent sources of new information for these markets. As a result, there is typically some amount of risk premium built into these power curves, particularly over winter and summer months. This insight is an attempt to quantify how much risk premium the forward market has put on various power curves from across the country. We also examine how the forward curves have evolved over the past year for prompt summer and prompt winter months. Specifically, the research explores how the price of natural gas compares to forward power prices, and what types of impact the spot markets have had on the curves.