天然氣價格低迷拖累電價:北美的電力、再生能源的短期預測 (2023年4月)

報告概要

天然氣價格居高不下和煤炭供應問題相結合，使2022年成為能源價格的豐收年。在CAISO之外，天然氣價格在2023年回落，因此電價也有所下降。雖然到2024年煤炭供應問題仍然存在，但這些低天然氣價格也削弱了這些問題的影響。因此，HenryHub預計到2027年將保持在4美元/mmbtu單位以下，同期能源價格應保持遠低於2022年的水準。供應堆棧也應在未來五年內繼續發展。隨著國家向更清潔的能源過渡，預計將有超過60GW的煤炭產能退役，而超過60GW的太陽能和風能將投入使用。

本報告提供北美的電力、再生能源市場最新形勢和短期性的趨勢預測分析。

Report Summary:

The combination of high natural gas prices and coal supply issues made 2022 a banner year for energy prices. Outside of CAISO, natural gas prices have fallen back to earth in 2023, and as a result power prices have dropped as well. While coal supply issues remain in place through 2024, these low natural gas prices also undercut the impact of those issues. As a result, with henry hub expected to remain below $4/mmbtu through 2027, energy prices should remain well below 2022 levels over the same period. The supply stack should continue to evolve over the next five years as well. Over 60 GW of coal capacity is expected to retire, while over 60 GW of solar and wind capacity are slated to come online as the country transitions to cleaner sources of energy.