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市場調查報告書

鈷:展望2030年(第16版)

Cobalt Outlook to 2030, 16th Edition

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品編碼 943944
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
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鈷:展望2030年(第16版) Cobalt Outlook to 2030, 16th Edition
出版日期: 2020年10月29日內容資訊: 英文
簡介
鈷金屬價格從2016年的不足15美元/磅上漲至2018年第二季度的超過43美元/磅,這得益於電池行業對鈷原料的強勁需求,供應相對緊張達到10年高點。但是,由於加丹加礦業等主要生產商的供應增加,市場供過於求。結果,價格在2018年年中開始回落,在2019年7月降至每磅13美元的低點,這是三年來的最低水平。

在此報告中,除了分析鈷的生產,儲量,全球分佈等,按國家/公司劃分的生產/消費量,按最終用途/最終用戶行業劃分的製造/消費趨勢,進出口趨勢,我們將總結價格趨勢等,並提供以下概述。

主要調查內容

  • 電池和航空航天業中使用鈷的前景
  • 未來十年鈷需求
  • DRC鈷領域展望
  • ASM部門在鈷價值鏈中的作用
  • DRC以外的新原始資料
  • 鈷精礦和回收利用方面的重大變化
  • 各種鈷形狀的國際貿易
  • 鈷礦開採及精礦生產成本
  • 到2030年的價格展望
目錄

The use of cobalt largely benefits from its hardness, anti-corrosion and high-temperature resistance characteristics, making it a competitive alloying metal for a variety of critical industrial applications. Since the first commercialisation of Li-ion batteries by Sony, it has been the development of consumer electronics that has underpinned cobalt demand. More recently, demand for cobalt chemicals in rechargeable battery cathodes has grown rapidly, driven by the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the context of collective governmental efforts to shift towards a low-carbon world.

Despite being a technology enabler for modern society, volatility has increasingly become a characteristic of the cobalt market owing to the complexities of its supply chain as well as those of the fast-moving battery and aerospace sectors. The high concentration of mining and refining production in two countries, the DRC and China, coupled with ESG concerns, represent potential long-term supply risks deeply embedded in the value chain. Short term, cobalt demand also faces headwinds from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the battery and aerospace industries and trends towards thrifting of cobalt in Li-ion battery chemistries (in favour of higher nickel loadings).

Underpinned by the huge demand for cobalt feedstocks from the battery sector versus relatively tight supply, the cobalt metal price climbed from below US$15/lb in 2016 to a ten-year high of US$43/lb in Q2 2018. High metal prices and hydroxide payables in turn led to an enormous supply response from producers in the DRC, including artisanal producers. New supply from sizable producers like Katanga Mining, coupled with swing artisanal production, put the market into oversupply.

Consequently, prices started to retreat from mid-2018 and fell to a three-year low of $13/lb in July 2019. Despite some rebound in hydroxide payables and metal prices in late 2019 as Glencore mothballed Mutanda, the largest cobalt mine in the world, the cobalt metal price fell back to close to a 10-month low in June 2020. The premia for battery chemicals including cobalt sulphate and tetroxide also dwindled as a result of near-term uncertainty in the market following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the short-term challenges, Roskill believes that the cobalt market is now entering a new phase of consolidation and rejuvenation. The medium-term demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily once battery and aerospace sectors recover from recent setbacks with the assistance of supportive government subsidy/rescue schemes both in China and Europe. In addition, as market participants re-focus on supply chain security and sustainability, a more resilient and diverse cobalt value chain could be built. As such, cobalt should continue to play an essential role in the global transition towards clean energy technologies.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What is the outlook for cobalt use in battery and aerospace sectors?
  • How will cobalt demand perform in the next decade?
  • What is the outlook for the DRC cobalt sector?
  • What role does the ASM sector play in the cobalt value chain?
  • Where will new sources of feedstock come from outside the DRC?
  • Key changes in cobalt refining and recycling?
  • How different forms of cobalt are traded internationally?
  • What are the production costs of mining and refining cobalt?
  • How will prices perform to 2030?

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