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市場調查報告書

鋰的全球市場:到2030年的展望,第17版

Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品編碼 942689
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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鋰的全球市場:到2030年的展望,第17版 Lithium: Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition
出版日期: 將在2020年07月31日內容資訊: 英文
簡介

碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰的價格,整個2019年持續表現下降趨勢,碳酸鋰的每月平均價格從1月到12月之間降低了36%。 2020年第一季,每碳酸鋰的每月平均價格噸低於7,000美元,由於鋰離子電池產業的需求劇增與未來供給的不確定性,2014年以後一直持續的上升基調告一段落。2020年前半期,由於新型冠狀病毒感染疾病(COVID-19)的大流行病伴隨的封鎖全球地銷售台數減少,鋰的需求擴大也呈現短期性停頓狀態。但長遠來看,今後10年鋰需求預計將持續踏實成長,到2030年超過每年18%的成長率持續擴大。

本報告提供全球鋰市場調查,供應鏈的流程,全球生產與消費狀況,生產成本,國際的交易,今後展望,生產國和企業的簡介,消費趨勢等資訊。

目錄

  • 1.摘要整理
  • 2.供應鏈的流程圖
  • 3.全球生產情形
  • 4.生產成本
  • 5.全球消費情形
  • 6.國際性交易
  • 7.價格
  • 8.展望
  • 9.背景
  • 10.永續性
  • 11.生產國的簡介
  • 12. 企業的簡介
  • 13.各用途的消費情形
目錄

Price support

Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices continued to display a downward trend throughout the majority of 2019, with monthly average lithium carbonate prices falling 36% between January and December. Trends in Q1 2020 have seen monthly average prices fall further to <US$7,000/t Li2CO3 for the first time since 2014, eroding price increases caused by forecast strong demand growth in the lithium-ion battery industry and uncertainty over future supply. Just as higher prices incentivised the rapid commissioning of production capacity throughout the supply chain, the slide in lithium prices has stressed almost all producers from mined products to refined compounds, causing output curtailments or suspensions.

The rise, and fall, of automotive batteries

Demand for lithium compounds from the rechargeable battery industry has displayed strong growth throughout the 2010s, with the increasing use of larger Li-ion batteries in automotive applications. In 2019, rechargeable batteries accounted for 54% of total lithium demand, almost entirely from Li-ion battery technologies. Though the rapid rise of hybrid and electric vehicle sales has brought attention to the requirement for lithium compounds, falling sales in H2 2019 in China, the largest market for EV's, and a global reduction in sales caused by lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic in H1 2020 have put the short-term 'breaks' on lithium demand growth, impacting demand from both battery and industrial applications. Longer term scenarios continue to show strong growth for lithium demand over the coming decade however, with Roskill forecasting demand to exceed 1.0Mt LCE in 2027, with growth in excess of 18%py to 2030.

Carbonate versus hydroxide

As battery applications extend their dominance of lithium demand, the market is expected to become more focussed on providing products to meet specifications for automotive batteries. The shift towards high-nickel cathode materials, to increase battery energy density, is accelerating demand growth for lithium hydroxide, though its cost premium over lithium carbonate has made some consumers reluctant to switch feedstock. Lithium hydroxide is expected to become the dominant lithium chemistry consumed, though the balance between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide remains highly dependent on lithium-ion cathode requirements.

Supply disruption

A correction in the oversupply of mined lithium products observed in 2018 and 2019 is on-going, with in excess of 30,000t LCE contained in spodumene concentrates estimated to be held in stockpiles at end-2019. Continued weak spodumene concentrate prices have caused lithium mineral operations to target reducing production costs through improved recovery, strip ratios and in-situ grades. While lower lithium prices have impacted sales revenue at lithium brine and mineral conversion facilities, production cost have remained largely stable in 2019. This has been largely down to major brine operations in Chile benefiting from price linked 'sliding-scale' royalty payments, and mineral conversion plants benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved feedstock quality.

Outlook

Longer term, further additions to lithium production capacity for mined and refined lithium products will be required to keep pace with demand growth, led by battery applications. Though schedule pipeline capacity appears sufficient to meet this demand growth, challenges and set-backs in developing, financing and commissioning lithium mining and refining operations are expected. Even major incumbent lithium producers are at risk of failing to meet production targets and expansion plans, highlighting the technical and financial hurdles involved with bringing sizable volumes of new capacity online. Roskill maintains the view that future refined lithium supply will remain tight, with a period of sustained supply deficit in the mid-2020s.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • How are lithium prices impacting existing lithium producers?
  • Which companies are the major lithium producers?
  • Will the slowdown in EV sales impact long-term lithium demand growth?
  • Where will new sources of mined and refined lithium supply come from?
  • How will prices of key lithium products perform to 2030?
  • What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lithium industry?
  • Which lithium products will be required by key end-use applications?
  • How important will secondary sources of lithium products become?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts for demand, supply and prices
  • Access to the report via Roskill Interactive for up to 5 users
  • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed on our latest view of the industry
  • Access to Roskill specialists for key market queries
  • Option to download tables and graphs from the report
  • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings

Table of Contents

  • 1. Executive Summary
  • 2. Supply Chain Flowchart
  • 3. World Production
  • 4. Production Costs
  • 5. World Consumption
  • 6. International Trade
  • 7. Prices
  • 8. Outlook
  • 9. Background
  • 10. Sustainability
  • 11. Country Profiles
  • 12. Company Profiles
  • 13. Consumption by First Use