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市場調查報告書

鋰開採計劃分析:技術、財務評估

Lithium Mining Project Analysis: Technical and Financial Evaluation

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品編碼 927370
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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鋰開採計劃分析:技術、財務評估 Lithium Mining Project Analysis: Technical and Financial Evaluation
出版日期: 2020年02月01日內容資訊: 英文
簡介

預計在未來幾十年中,汽車電氣化和儲能將為鋰離子電池的原材料提供穩定的需求。

本報告提供全球鋰開採計劃的最新形勢與未來展望相關分析,NPV (淨現值),使用了內部收益率,本錢回收,及計劃獎勵價格比較分析的各計劃的摘要,展望,重要的影響要素,定位和基礎設施,計劃的歷史,質地,資源,開發計劃,資本集中度,營業利潤率,及經濟分析。

第1章 簡介

第2章 摘要整理

第3章 鋰的展望、價格的前提條件

  • 簡介
  • 鋰產業結構
  • 鋰離子電池產業的鋰
  • 鋰的需求與供給
  • 鋰價格

第4章 計劃分析

  • 簡介
  • 蘊藏量和資源數量
    • 鹽水資源
    • 礦物資源
  • 開採、開採
  • 加工
    • 精製鋰生產業者
    • 加工鋰輝石生產業者
  • 生產成本
    • 精製鋰
    • 鋰輝石
  • 資本成本
  • 產品組合、收益
  • 現金流量分析
  • PIP (Project Incentive Price)
  • 案例研究

第5章 附錄

第6章 計劃的簡介

  • Authier
  • Cinovec
  • Clayton Valley South
  • Goulamina
  • Keliber
  • Maricunga
  • Pastos Grandes
  • Ratones & Centenario (Cuenca)
  • Rhyolite Ridge
  • Rincon
  • Rose
  • Sal de Vida
  • Sonora
  • Thacker Pass (舊Lithium Nevada & Kings Valley)
  • Tres Quebradas (3Q)
  • Wolfsberg
目錄

Understanding potential future sources of supply is key to identifying potential bottlenecks as well as opportunities.

Automotive electrification and energy storage will provide strong demand for lithium-ion battery raw materials over coming decades.

To understand the potential of new sources of raw materials, Roskill has reviewed the plans of developers evaluating greenfield lithium projects that could contribute to supply in the 2020s.

For each project, the report provides a summary, outlook, critical influencing factors, location and infrastructure, project history, geology, resources, development plans, capital intensity, operating margin and economic analysis with comparative calculations of net present value, internal rate of return, payback and project incentive pricing.

Lithium has witnessed a significant boost to exploration and development work and since 2016 has delivered a myriad of development stage projects all vying to make it into production. The report evaluates the potential for additional lithium production from these hard rock, brine and clay sources, including from the current main centres of activity and gives a robust appraisal of each of them.

Projects Included:

There will be profiles on 16 of the most advanced projects.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Executive summary

  • 2.1. Context of this study
  • 2.2. Analysis overview
    • 2.2.1. Lithium Brine
    • 2.2.2. Lithium Mineral
  • 2.3. Comparing investment returns

3. Lithium market outlook & price assumptions

  • 3.1. Introduction
  • 3.2. Lithium industry structure
  • 3.3. Lithium in the Li-ion battery industry
  • 3.4. Lithium supply and demand
  • 3.5. Lithium prices

4. Project analysis

  • 4.1. Introduction
  • 4.2. Reserves & resources
    • 4.2.1. Brine resources
    • 4.2.2. Mineral resources
  • 4.3. Mining/extraction
  • 4.4. Processing
    • 4.4.1. Processing-refined lithium producers
    • 4.4.2. Processing-spodumene producers
  • 4.5. Production costs
    • 4.5.1. Production costs-refined lithium
    • 4.5.2. Production costs-spodumene producers
  • 4.6. Capital costs
  • 4.7. Product mix & revenues
  • 4.8. Cash flow analysis
  • 4.9. Project Incentive Price (PIP)
  • 4.10. Case studies: Capital expenditure and production ramp-up

5. Appendix

  • 5.1. Cost estimation methodology
    • 5.1.1. What production unit is appropriate?
    • 5.1.2. Total cash costs and all-in sustaining costs
    • 5.1.3. By-Product or normal costing
    • 5.1.4. Co-product or pro-rata costing
  • 5.2. Commodity conversion tables
  • 5.3. Ore resources (inclusive of reserves)

6. Project profile notes

  • 6.1. Authier
  • 6.2. Cinovec
  • 6.3. Clayton Valley South
  • 6.4. Goulamina
  • 6.5. Keliber
  • 6.6. Maricunga
  • 6.7. Pastos Grandes
  • 6.8. Ratones & Centenario (Cuenca)
  • 6.9. Rhyolite Ridge
  • 6.10. Rincon
  • 6.11. Rose
  • 6.12. Sal de Vida
  • 6.13. Sonora
  • 6.14. Thacker Pass (previously called Lithium Nevada & Kings Valley)
  • 6.15. Tres Quebradas (3Q)
  • 6.16. Wolfsberg

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Project list
  • Table 2: Summary of capital costs and annual production capacity by lithium product type
  • Table 3: Lithium & Spodumene project KPIs
  • Table 4: Lithium used in battery technologies, 2013-2028
  • Table 5: Summary of lithium project analysed
  • Table 6: Lithium chemical conversion
  • Table 7: Summary of the mining rates and costs for the mineral based projects analysed
  • Table 8: Summary of the processing rates and costs for the projects analysed
  • Table 9: Capital development and intensity cost summary-Refined producers
  • Table 10: Capital development and intensity cost summary-Spodumene producers
  • Table 11: Specification of refined lithium products produced by Livent
  • Table 12: Long-term lithium prices summary
  • Table 13: Long-term by-product prices
  • Table 14: Summary of project valuations and investment returns
  • Table 15: Lithium compound conversions
  • Table 16: Lithium mineral projects resources, inclusive of reserves
  • Table 17: Lithium brine projects resources, inclusive of reserves
  • Table 18: Authier mineral resource summary
  • Table 19: Authier mineral reserve summary
  • Table 20: Cinovec mineral resource summary
  • Table 21: Cinovec mineral reserve summary
  • Table 22: Clayton valley South: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 23: Goulamina: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 24: Goulamina: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 25: Keliber: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 26: Keliber: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 27: Maricunga mineral resource summary
  • Table 28: Maricunga: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 29: Pastos Grandes: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 30: Ratones & Centenario: Mineral resource estimate summary
  • Table 31: Rhyolite Ridge: Mineral resource summary (lithium-boron (searlesite) mineralisation only)
  • Table 32: Rhyolite Ridge: Mineral resource summary (lithium only mineralisation and lithium-boron (searlesite) mineralisation)
  • Table 33: Rhyolite Ridge: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 34: Rincon: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 35: Rincon: Mineral reserve estimate summary
  • Table 36: Rose: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 37: Rose: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 38: Sal de Vida: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 39: Sal de Vida: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 40: Sonora: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 41: Sonora: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 42: Thacker Pass: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 43: Thacker Pass: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 44: Tres Quebradas: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 45: Tres Quebradas: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 46: Wolfsberg: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 47: Wolfsberg: Mineral reserve summary

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Location of projects analysed
  • Figure 2: Location of North American projects analysed
  • Figure 3: Lithium triangle, locations of South American brine projects
  • Figure 4: European projects analysed
  • Figure 5: North African project analysed
  • Figure 6: Lithium project all-in sustaining margins
  • Figure 7: Comparison of project brine chemistry vs. other operations and projects within the Americas
  • Figure 8: Lithium & spodumene project competitiveness -- incentive price to capital intensity
  • Figure 9: Lithium & spodumene project risk
  • Figure 10: Lithium & spodumene projects ranked by IRR
  • Figure 11: LCE production by country, 2011-2018
  • Figure 12: Mine supply of lithium by source, 2000-2018
  • Figure 13: Alternative scenarios for lithium demand & lithium refined supply, 2018-2028
  • Figure 14: Quarterly spot and contract prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide, Q1-2017-Q4-2018
  • Figure 15: Lithium contract price and supply/demand forecast, 2018-2028
  • Figure 16: Geographic locations of projects analysed
  • Figure 17: Geographic location of South American brine projects analysed
  • Figure 18: Lithium production flowsheet
  • Figure 19: Comparison of resource size vs. concentration (grade) for the analysed brine projects and other projects
  • Figure 20: Comparison of lithium, magnesium and sulphate concentrations for the analysed brine projects and some early-stage exploration projects
  • Figure 21: Comparison of resource size vs. lithium resource grade for the analysed mineral projects and some early-stage exploration projects
  • Figure 22: Average processing cost breakdown to produce a refined lithium product
  • Figure 23: Comparison of processing costs (excluding by-product credits)
  • Figure 24: Comparison of processing costs (net of by-product credits)
  • Figure 25: Comparison of plant processing costs for projects producing spodumene concentrate (excluding by-product credits)
  • Figure 26: Comparison of plant processing costs for projects producing spodumene concentrate (net of by-product credits)
  • Figure 27: Block flow diagram for a continuous lithium carbonate plant
  • Figure 28: Comparison of site operating costs for the analysed projects producing lithium carbonate or hydroxide
  • Figure 29: Comparison of all-in sustaining cost for the production of refined product (net of by-product credits)
  • Figure 30: Comparison of all-in sustaining cost for the production of refined product (coproduct/ pro-rata costing)
  • Figure 31: Comparison of all-in sustaining production cost for the projects producing a spodumene concentrate (net of by-product credits)
  • Figure 32: Comparison of all-in sustaining production cost for the projects producing a spodumene concentrate (co-product/pro-rata costing)
  • Figure 33: Comparison of the development capex required for all the projects
  • Figure 34: Comparison of the development capex for all the analysed projects
  • Figure 35: Capital intensity ratio
  • Figure 36: Internal rate of return (IRR) vs. capital intensity ratio
  • Figure 37: Long-term lithium prices summary
  • Figure 38: Project net revenue split
  • Figure 39: Project Net Present Value (NPV) at different discount rates (40-year period)
  • Figure 40: Project Net Present Value (NPV) at different discount rates (20-year period)
  • Figure 41: IRR at 2018 prices vs. percentage price increase required to achieve a 20% IRR
  • Figure 42: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) -- pre-tax & pre-finance
  • Figure 43: Project Incentive Price (PIP) for projects producing a refined lithium product to achieve 0%, 15% and 20% IRRs
  • Figure 44: Project Incentive Price (PIP) for projects producing a final spodumene product to achieve 0%, 15% and 20% IRRs
  • Figure 45: Clayton Valley South: Brine chemistry versus peers
  • Figure 46: Maricunga: Brine chemistry versus peers
  • Figure 47: Pastos Grandes: Brine chemistry versus peers
  • Figure 48: Ratones & Centenario: Brine chemistry versus peers
  • Figure 49: Rincon: Brine chemistry versus peers
  • Figure 50: Sal de Vida: Brine chemistry versus peers
  • Figure 51: Tres Quebradas: Brine chemistry versus peers