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鈷,鎳及錳的開採計劃分析:技術、財務評估

Cobalt, Nickel & Manganese Mining Project Analysis - Technical and Financial Evaluation

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品編碼 927088
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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鈷,鎳及錳的開採計劃分析:技術、財務評估 Cobalt, Nickel & Manganese Mining Project Analysis - Technical and Financial Evaluation
出版日期: 2020年02月01日內容資訊: 英文
簡介

預計在未來幾十年中,汽車電氣化和儲能將為鋰離子電池的原材料提供穩定的需求。

鎳業已經是大型企業,但每噸新產能需要大量資本投資。這也是一個需要將舊項目和新項目從金屬行業轉移到化學行業的行業。目前的活動集中在東南亞,澳大利亞和巴西,這些項目和其他項目被認為是潛在的新資源。

本報告提供原料的新供給來源的可能性,評價綠地(待開發區)計劃評論以審查開發者的計劃,各計劃概要,預測,重要的與影響要素,定位使用了基礎設施,計劃履歷,質地,資源,開發計劃,資本集中度,營業利潤率,及淨現值、內部收益率、回收、計劃獎勵價格比較計算的經濟分析。

第1章 簡介

第2章 摘要整理

  • 本報告的背景
  • 投資收益比較

第3章 商品的展望 & 價格的前提條件

    • 鈷產業結構
    • 鋰離子電池產業的鈷
    • 鈷的需求與供給
    • 鈷的價格
    • 錳產業結構
    • 鋰離子電池產業的錳
    • 錳的需求與供給
    • 錳的價格
    • 鎳產業結構
    • 鋰離子電池產業的鎳
    • 鎳的需求與供給
    • 鎳的價格
  • 長期價格評估

第4章 計劃的檢討

  • 簡介
    • 鈷相關的計劃
    • 銅相關計劃
    • 鎳相關的計劃
    • 錳相關的計劃
  • 蘊藏量和資源數量
    • 資源規模和等級
  • 開採
    • 露天開採的比率和廢棄物稀釋等級
  • 選礦
    • 硫化物精礦、EMM
    • 大氣壓的漏出
    • HPAL (高壓/加壓酸浸出) 計劃
    • HPAL的強化和成本超支
    • HPAL流程的運用成本
  • AISC (All-in Sustaining Costs)
  • 運作中的礦山的AIC (All-in Costs) 總額
  • 資本發展費用
  • 收入淨額額和中間生產品
    • 混合氫氧化物
    • 混合硫化物
    • 硫酸鎳、鈷
    • 硫化物精礦
    • 獲利能力和核算領域
  • 現金流量分析
    • 計劃、獎勵價格 (PIP)

第5章 附錄

第6章 計劃的簡介

  • 鈷的計劃
  • 銅的計劃
  • 錳的計劃
  • 鎳的計劃
目錄

Understanding potential future sources of supply is key to identifying potential bottlenecks as well as opportunities.

Automotive electrification and energy storage will provide strong demand for lithium-ion battery raw materials over coming decades.

To understand the potential of new sources of raw materials, Roskill has reviewed the plans of developers evaluating greenfield projects that could contribute to supply in the 2020s.

For each project, the report provides a summary, outlook, critical influencing factors, location and infrastructure, project history, geology, resources, development plans, capital intensity, operating margin and economic analysis with comparative calculations of net present value, internal rate of return, payback and project incentive pricing.

Nickel is already a large-scale business, but one that requires significant capital investment per tonne of new capacity. It is also an industry that needs to transition legacy and new projects from metallic to chemical industry focus. Activity is currently centred on Southeast Asia, Australia and Brazil, with these and other projects reviewed for their potential as new sources of supply. As a mostly by-product metal, potential new cobalt sources are evaluated from both copper and nickel sources, with a focus on DRC copper based by-product, and nickel-based output from the nickel projects reviewed above.

Numerous primary cobalt projects have sprung-up, largely in Canada and Australia, but there is also the potential for cobalt driving DRC-based production if the economics support it.

Projects Included:

There will be profiles on 24 of the most advanced projects that are yet to secure financing.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Executive summary

  • 2.1. Context of this study
  • 2.2. Cobalt
  • 2.3. Nickel
  • 2.4. Manganese
  • 2.5. Comparing investment returns

3. Commodity outlook and price assumption

  • 3.1. Cobalt
    • 3.1.1. Cobalt industry structure
    • 3.1.2. Cobalt in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 3.1.3. Cobalt supply and demand
    • 3.1.4. Cobalt prices
  • 3.2. Manganese
    • 3.2.1. Manganese industry structure
    • 3.2.2. Manganese in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 3.2.3. Manganese supply and demand
    • 3.2.4. Manganese prices
  • 3.3. Nickel
    • 3.3.1. Nickel industry structure
    • 3.3.2. Nickel in the Li-ion battery industry
    • 3.3.3. Nickel supply and demand
    • 3.3.4. Nickel prices
  • 3.4. Long-term price assumptions

4. Cobalt, copper, nickel and manganese project analysis

  • 4.1. Introduction
    • 4.1.1. Cobalt projects
    • 4.1.2. Copper projects
    • 4.1.3. Nickel projects
    • 4.1.4. Manganese projects
  • 4.2. Reserves & resources
    • 4.2.1. Resource size and grade
      • 4.2.1.1. Cobalt Reserves and Resources
      • 4.2.1.2. Nickel Reserves and Resources
      • 4.2.1.3. Copper Reserves and Resources
      • 4.2.1.4. Manganese Reserves and Resources
  • 4.3. Mining
    • 4.3.1. Strip ratios and waste-diluted grades
  • 4.4. Ore processing
    • 4.4.1. Sulphide concentrates and EMM
    • 4.4.2. Ambient pressure leaching
    • 4.4.3. High pressure/pressurised acid leach projects
    • 4.4.4. HPAL ramp-ups and cost overruns
    • 4.4.5. HPAL process operating costs
  • 4.5. All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC)
  • 4.6. Life-of-mine cost summary-all-in costs
  • 4.7. Capital development costs
  • 4.8. Net metal revenues and intermediate products
    • 4.8.1. Intermediate products-mixed hydroxides
    • 4.8.2. Intermediate products-mixed sulphides
    • 4.8.3. Intermediate products-nickel and cobalt sulphates
    • 4.8.4. Intermediate products-sulphide concentrates
    • 4.8.5. Intermediate products-manganese
    • 4.8.6. Payability and payable yield
  • 4.9. Cash flow analysis
    • 4.9.1. Project Incentive Price (PIP)

5. Appendix

  • 5.1. Cost estimation methodology
    • 5.1.1. What production unit is appropriate?
    • 5.1.2. Total cash costs and all-in sustaining costs
    • 5.1.3. By-Product or normal costing
    • 5.1.4. Co-product or pro-rata costing
  • 5.2. Commodity conversion tables
  • 5.3. Ore resources (inclusive of reserves)

6. Project profile notes

  • 6.1. Cobalt projects
    • 6.1.1. Idaho Cobalt
    • 6.1.2. Kipushi Tailings
    • 6.1.3. Mt Thirsty
    • 6.1.4. Musonoi
    • 6.1.5. NICO
    • 6.1.6. Nkamouna
    • 6.1.7. Thackaringa
  • 6.2. Copper projects
    • 6.2.1. Kalongwe
    • 6.2.2. NorthMet
    • 6.2.3. Twin Metals
  • 6.3. Manganese projects
    • 6.3.1. Artillery Peak
    • 6.3.2. Chvaletice Tailings
    • 6.3.3. Hermosa (Central Deposit)
    • 6.3.4. Plymouth (Woodstock)
  • 6.4. Nickel projects
    • 6.4.1. Dumont
    • 6.4.2. Eagle's Nest
    • 6.4.3. Enterprise Nickel
    • 6.4.4. Goongarrie
    • 6.4.5. Minago
    • 6.4.6. Ravensthorpe
    • 6.4.7. SCONI
    • 6.4.8. Sunrise (Syerston)
    • 6.4.9. Turnagain
    • 6.4.10. Wingellina

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Project list
  • Table 2: Summary of capital costs and annual production capacity by commodity
  • Table 3: Project KPIs
  • Table 4: Cobalt used in battery technologies, 2010-2028
  • Table 5: Manganese used in battery technologies, 2010-2028
  • Table 6: Nickel used in battery technologies, 2008-2028
  • Table 7: Summary of long-term price vs. 2018 average
  • Table 8: Project summary
  • Table 9: Technical study criteria summary
  • Table 10: Summary of cobalt ore, proven and probable reserves and total resources
  • Table 11: Summary of copper ore, proven and probable reserves and total resources
  • Table 12: Summary of nickel ore, proven and probable reserves and total resources
  • Table 13: Summary of manganese ore, proven and probable reserves and total resources
  • Table 14: Summary of contained metal hosted in reserves and resources.
  • Table 15: Intermediate products and processing route options
  • Table 16: HPAL operation and autoclave characteristics
  • Table 17: Leach plant acid consumption, autoclave temperature and flowsheet
  • Table 18: Summary of cobalt costs-ranked on pro-rata all-in cost
  • Table 19: Summary of copper costs-ranked on pro-rata all-in cost
  • Table 20: Summary of nickel costs-ranked on pro-rata all-in cost
  • Table 21: Summary of manganese costs-ranked on pro-rata all-in cost
  • Table 22: Capital development and intensity cost summary table-cobalt and copper
  • Table 23: Capital development and intensity cost summary-nickel and manganese
  • Table 24: Percentage of net revenues by metal and intermediate products
  • Table 25: Summary of sulphide concentrate composition-grades of key metals
  • Table 26: Recovery rates, payability terms and payable yield across intermediate products
  • Table 27: Project valuations and investment returns
  • Table 28: Summary by-product / normal cost analysis
  • Table 29: Net revenue calculation
  • Table 30: Cost allocation based on net revenue percentage
  • Table 31: Summary co-product / pro-rata cost analysis
  • Table 32: Cobalt compound conversions
  • Table 33: Nickel compound conversions
  • Table 34: Manganese compound conversions
  • Table 35: Copper compound conversions
  • Table 36: Cobalt ore resources, measured & indicated and inferred
  • Table 37: Copper ore resources, measured & indicated and inferred
  • Table 38: Nickel ore resources, measured & indicated and inferred
  • Table 39: Manganese ore resources, measured & indicated and inferred
  • Table 40: Idaho mineral resource summary
  • Table 41: Idaho mineral reserve summary
  • Table 42: Kipushi Tailings mineral resource summary
  • Table 43: Mt Thirsty mineral resource summary
  • Table 44: Musonoi mineral resource estimate
  • Table 45: Musonoi mineral reserve estimate
  • Table 46: NICO mineral resource summary
  • Table 47: NICO mineral reserve summary
  • Table 48: Nkamouna mineral resource summary
  • Table 49: Nkamouna mineral reserve summary
  • Table 50: Thackaringa mineral resource summary
  • Table 51: Thackaringa mineral reserve summary
  • Table 52: Kalongwe mineral copper resource summary
  • Table 53: Kalongwe mineral reserve summary
  • Table 54: NorthMet mineral resource summary
  • Table 55: NorthMet mineral reserve summary
  • Table 56: Twin Metals mineral resource summary
  • Table 57: Twin Metals mineral reserve summary
  • Table 58: Artillery Peak: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 59: Chvaletice: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 60: Hermosa, Taylor deposit: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 61: Hermosa, Central deposit: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 62: Dumont: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 63: Dumont: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 64: Eagle's Nest: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 65: Eagle's Nest: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 66: Enterprise, primary sulphide: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 67: Enterprise, near surface, oxidized, non-primary sulphide: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 68: Enterprise, primary sulphide: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 69: Enterprise, near surface, oxidized, non-primary sulphide: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 70: Goongarrie: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 71: Goongarrie: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 72: Minago: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 73: Minago: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 74: Ravensthorpe: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 75: Ravensthorpe: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 76: SCONI: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 77: SCONI: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 78: Sunrise, Ni and Co: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 79: Sunrise, Sc: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 80: Sunrise: Mineral reserve summary
  • Table 81: Turnagain: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 82: Wingellina: Mineral resource summary
  • Table 83: Wingellina: Mineral reserve summary

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Locations of projects analysed
  • Figure 2: North American projects analysed
  • Figure 3: Central African projects analysed
  • Figure 4: European projects analysed
  • Figure 5: Australian projects analysed
  • Figure 6: Ni, Co, Cu and Mn projects all-in sustaining margins
  • Figure 7: Project competitiveness-incentive price to capital intensity
  • Figure 8: Project Risk
  • Figure 9: Projects ranked by IRR
  • Figure 10: Mine supply of cobalt by source, 2010-2018
  • Figure 11: Refined cobalt supply by country, 2010-2018
  • Figure 12: Cobalt price and supply/demand forecast 2018-2028
  • Figure 13: Mine supply of manganese by country, 2000-2018
  • Figure 14: World: Production of EMD by country, 2009-2018
  • Figure 15: Outlook for manganese ore demand and supply, 2018-2028
  • Figure 16: Manganese price and demand forecast 2018-2028
  • Figure 17: Demand for nickel by type, 2008-2028
  • Figure 18: Outlook for primary nickel production by traded product, 2012-2028
  • Figure 19: Outlook for nickel prices, 2001-2027
  • Figure 20: Total resources vs. cobalt resource grade
  • Figure 21: Cobalt producing projects ranked by contained metal in reserves and resources
  • Figure 22: Cobalt projects in context with global deposits
  • Figure 23: Total resources vs. nickel resources grade
  • Figure 24: Nickel producing projects ranked by contained metal in reserves and resources
  • Figure 25: Total copper resources vs. copper resource grade
  • Figure 26: Copper producing projects ranked by contained metal in reserves and resources
  • Figure 27: Total resources vs. manganese resource grade
  • Figure 28: Manganese producing projects ranked by contained metal in reserves and resources
  • Figure 29: Underground mining costs vs. mining rate
  • Figure 30: Open pit mining costs vs. mining rate
  • Figure 31: Open pit mining costs per tonne of ore milled vs. strip ratio
  • Figure 32: Process costs ($/t ore). Conventional circuit-crush, grinding, concentrate flotation
  • Figure 33: Process costs ($/t ore). Ambient pressure leach SXEW / hydromet circuits
  • Figure 34: Acid consumption vs. average autoclave temperature
  • Figure 35: Historic Nickel HPAL ramp-up rates
  • Figure 36: HPAL ramp-up rates vs. revised plan and historic rates
  • Figure 37: Historic capital cost blowouts vs. new cobalt projects
  • Figure 38: Processing costs vs. annual capacity at nickel HPAL plants
  • Figure 39: LOM Cobalt All-in Sustaining Costs (pro-rata / co-product costing) long term prices
  • Figure 40: Cobalt projects (blue bars) vs. producing mines in 2017$ AISC (pro-rata costing)
  • Figure 41: LOM Nickel All-in Sustaining Costs (pro-rata / co-product costing)
  • Figure 42: LOM Copper All-in Sustaining Costs (pro-rata / co-product costing)
  • Figure 43: Total development capex per tonne of annual ore milled capacity
  • Figure 44: Development capex per pound of metal equivalent production
  • Figure 45: Capital Intensity ratio (metal equivalent)
  • Figure 46: IRR vs. Capital Intensity Ratio
  • Figure 47: Project net revenue split by metal
  • Figure 48: Project Net Present Value (US$M) at 8% discount rate
  • Figure 49: IRR vs. % metal price increase required to achieve a 20% IRR
  • Figure 50: Internal rate of return (IRR)-Cobalt projects (pre-tax, pre-finance)
  • Figure 51: Internal rate of return (IRR)-Nickel projects (pre-tax, pre-finance)
  • Figure 52: Internal rate of return (IRR)-Copper producing projects (pre-tax, pre-finance)
  • Figure 53: Internal rate of return (IRR)-Manganese producing projects (pre-tax, pre-finance)
  • Figure 54: Project Incentive Price (PIP) for Cobalt projects to achieve 0%, 15% and 20% IRRs
  • Figure 55: Project Incentive Price (PIP) for Copper projects to achieve 0%, 15% and 20% IRRs
  • Figure 56: Project Incentive Price (PIP) for Nickel projects to achieve 0%, 15% and 20% IRRs
  • Figure 57: Project Incentive Price for Manganese projects to achieve 0%, 15% and 20% IRRs