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市場調查報告書

鎳至2030 年的展望(第 17 版)

Nickel Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition

出版商 Roskill Information Services 商品編碼 1004454
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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鎳至2030 年的展望(第 17 版) Nickel Outlook to 2030, 17th Edition
出版日期: 2021年04月22日內容資訊: 英文
簡介

2020 年的鎳市場受到 COVID-19 大流行造成的全球經濟衰退的強烈影響。世界各地已採取封鎖措施以減緩病毒的傳播,導致鎳產品的最終需求減少。儘管需求受到影響,但鎳供應相對未受影響,預計 2020 年將增長 4%。這主要是由於來自印度尼西亞的精煉鎳供應激增。結果,鎳市場四年來首次實現盈利。

原鎳消費量在過去十年中穩步增長,但由於 COVID-19 的流行,2020 年需求同比下降,這是自全球金融危機 (GFC) 以來的首次。不袗需求最初受到為緩解 COVID-19 疫情而反覆封鎖的動盪影響,對建築和酒店業產生了負面影響。航空和汽車行業的大幅下滑分別減少了對鎳合金和鑄件中鎳的需求。

本報告調查了全球鎳市場,並提供了有關鎳供需、貿易、成本和價格、市場趨勢和前景、競爭條件以及主要公司概況的信息。

目錄

第 1 章執行摘要

  • 鎳市場概況
  • 鎳需求
  • 鎳供應
  • 鎳貿易
  • 展望

第2章鎳流程圖

第 3 章世界生產

  • 鎳礦生產
  • 鎳中間產品製造
  • 鎳的精煉生產
    • 鄉村製作
    • 按工藝生產
    • 按類型生產
    • 頂級鎳生產商
  • 鎳回收
    • 冶金應用中的鎳回收
    • 回收電池中的鎳

第 4 章製造成本

  • 鎳製造成本
  • 生產成本趨勢
    • 礦石價格
    • 電力成本
    • 金屬副產品
    • 匯率
    • 人工成本
    • 運輸成本
  • 鎳項目分析

第五章世界消費

  • 直接使用鎳
    • 應用程序首次使用
    • 按形狀劃分的初級鎳消耗量
  • 按地區劃分的初級消費

第六章國際貿易

  • 鎳礦和精礦
  • 鎳中間體
    • 鎳墊
    • 氧化鎳及燒結製品
  • 鎳鐵
  • 非合金原鎳金屬
  • 鎳粉和鎳片
  • 鎳化學品
    • 硫酸鎳
    • 氧化鎳和氫氧化物
  • 關稅等影響鎳市場的因素

第 7 章價格

  • 鎳價
  • 精煉鎳價格
  • 鎳礦價格
  • 鎳中間價
  • NPI 價格
  • 硫酸鎳價格

第 8 章展望

  • 需求展望
    • 不袗
    • 合金鋼和鑄件
    • 有色合金
    • 電池
    • 電鍍
    • 其他用途的鎳消耗量
    • 按類型劃分的鎳需求展望
    • 各國鎳消費展望
  • 供應展望
    • 主要趨勢
    • 新項目概述
    • 供應基礎案例展望
  • 一階複雜的市場平衡基本案例展望
  • 價格基本情況展望
    • 印尼 NPI 供應的影響
    • 印度尼西亞 HPAL 項目開發的激勵價格
    • 鎳價分行
    • 基本情況鎳價預測
    • 價格預測風險因素
  • 另類展望
    • 需求增加
    • 需求減少

第 9 章背景

  • 歷史
  • 屬性
    • 健康和環境問題
  • 發生
    • 硫化礦
    • 紅土礦
  • 儲量和資源
    • 世界保護區
    • 世界資源
  • 鎳加工
    • 火法冶金
    • 濕法冶金

第 10 章可持續性

  • 環境、社會、治理 (ESG)
    • 環境
    • 社交
    • 治理
  • 重要原材料
  • 負責任採購倡議
    • 經濟合作與發展組織 (OECD)
    • LME 紅旗評級計劃
    • 世界報導倡議
    • 責任指數
    • 負責任採購區塊鍊網絡 (RSBN)
    • 負責任採礦保障倡議
    • 負責任鋼鐵管理倡議

第 11 章國家概況

  • 阿爾巴尼亞
  • 阿根廷
  • 澳大利亞
  • 奧地利
  • 比利時
  • 博茨瓦納
  • 巴西
  • 喀麥隆
  • 加拿大
  • 中國
    • 礦山生產
    • I 類鎳生產
    • II 類鎳生產
  • 哥倫比亞
  • 古巴
  • 塞浦路斯
  • 多米尼加共和國
  • 芬蘭
  • 法國
  • 德國
  • 希臘
  • 危地馬拉
  • 印度
  • 印度尼西亞
    • 印尼鎳礦出口
    • 印度尼西亞精煉鎳的生產
    • 在印度尼西亞生產中間產品
  • 科特迪瓦
  • 日本
  • 哈薩克斯坦
  • 科索沃
  • 北馬其頓
  • 馬達加斯加
  • 馬拉維
  • 緬甸
  • 新喀裡多尼亞
  • 挪威
  • 巴布亞新幾內亞
  • 菲律賓
  • 波蘭
  • 俄羅斯
  • 南非
  • 韓國
  • 西班牙
  • 瑞典
  • 台灣
  • 坦桑尼亞
  • 泰國
  • 土耳其
  • 烏克蘭
  • 英國
  • 美國
  • 委內瑞拉
  • 越南
  • 贊比亞
  • 津巴布韋

第12章公司簡介

  • 英美
    • 巴西
    • 南非和津巴布韋
  • 必和必拓鎳西部
  • 埃拉梅特
    • 法國
    • 新喀裡多尼亞
    • 印度尼西亞
  • 嘉能可
    • 澳大利亞
    • 加拿大
    • 挪威
    • 新喀裡多尼亞
  • 金川集團有限公司 (JNMC)
  • 正鎳
    • MMC 可樂
    • 極地司
    • 哈亞瓦爾塔
  • PT 安塔姆
  • 住友金屬礦業 (SMM)
    • 日本
    • 菲律賓
  • 青山
  • 淡水河谷
    • 巴西
    • 加拿大
    • 印度尼西亞
    • 日本
    • 新喀裡多尼亞
    • 英國

第 13 章首次使用的消耗

  • 不袗
    • 不袗型
    • 不袗表觀消耗量
    • 不袗生產
    • 不袗廢料
    • 不袗的最終用途
    • 不袗外觀
    • 不袗中的鎳前景
  • 合金鋼和鑄件
    • 合金鋼型
    • 合金鋼及鑄造前景
  • 有色合金
    • 有色合金型
    • 高性能合金
    • 特殊性能合金
    • 一般工業合金
    • 有色合金的前景
  • 電鍍
    • 使用的鎳類型
    • 電鍍類型
    • 工業鍍鎳和塗層應用
    • 電鍍前景
  • 電池
    • 電池中的鎳前景
    • 電池行業概況
    • 鋰離子價值鏈
    • 主要化學概述
    • 陰極材料組成
    • 化學概述與展望
    • 汽車市場
    • 儲能
    • 便攜式電子產品
    • 動力和動力應用
  • 其他應用

第 14 章宏觀經濟展望

目錄

The nickel market in 2020 was strongly impacted by the global slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdown measures were implemented across the globe to slow the spread of the virus, which resulted in a reduction of end-use demand for nickel products. Despite the impact to demand, nickel supply remained relatively unaffected and saw estimated growth of 4% in 2020. This was almost entirely the result of surging supply of refined nickel from Indonesia. As a result, the nickel market switched to surplus for the first time in four years.

Consumption of primary nickel has risen strongly over the past decade, although demand declined y-o-y in 2020 for the first time since the global financial crisis (GFC) as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stainless steel demand was initially impacted by the disruptions caused by repeated lockdowns to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, which had negative consequences on construction and the hospitality sector. Large downturns for the aviation and automotive sectors reduced nickel demand in nickel alloys and castings respectively.

The nickel price averaged US$13,771/t in 2020, which was marginally down on the average for 2019. However, this does not highlight the large price movement over the year, starting with an early slump that was followed by a strong rally over the second half of 2020, despite the market surplus. Such a detachment between market fundamentals and the price, implies other factors were responsible for driving this increase.

At the beginning of 2020, Indonesia reimposed its ban on the export of unprocessed nickel ores and concentrates to attract further investment in constructing processing capacity, after having successfully increased market share following a similar export ban in 2014. The move once again has been largely successful, with nickel pig iron (NPI) supply estimated to have soared by a staggering 67% y-o-y in 2020. As a result, however, the loss of material available for processing in China led to fears of a decline in domestic NPI production, amid a stimulated Chinese economy and healthier stainless steel demand over H2 2020.

Investor speculation interest in nickel has been fuelled by the positive outlook for nickel in batteries. Comments by Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, demanding more sustainably sourced nickel have provided additional support to the bullish narrative for nickel. Batteries will find a growing market share for nickel over the next decade, although this currently represents a small proportion of nickel consumption. Several high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects are being constructed in Indonesia to serve the growing demand for intermediates used in nickel sulphate production. Slowing the development of these projects has been a change in plans for their tailings disposal methods. Initially these projects had planned to utilise deep sea tailings placement, but in October 2020, under pressure from concerned stakeholders along the supply chain, they have opted against this method in favour of on-land tailings storage. With sustainability concerns ranging from the large areas of land clearance involved in nickel laterite mining to the high energy consumption involved in nickel smelting, Roskill believes that ESG will become an increasingly significant component of the nickel market over 2021 and the years to come.

Demand is expected to recover through 2021 subject to the roll out of vaccines globally and national stimulus packages taking effect. Roskill forecasts stainless steel to remain the main application for nickel over the course of the next decade driven by continued growth in demand from China. Low use of nickel in scrap by Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel mills will continue to drive consumption of nickel in primary units. However, eating into stainless steel's share of the nickel market over the next decade, will be lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles that will see rapid uptake over the next decade. Owing to the rising demand for nickel products suitable for processing to nickel sulphate including Class I nickel, this is likely to impact stainless steel mills as they increasingly substitute such high-purity nickel for Class II nickel and scrap.

Roskill's New “Nickel Outlook 17th edition” provides a comprehensive insight into the trends and likely future direction of the primary nickel market.

Roskill experts will answer your questions:

  • What are the likely supply developments in Indonesia?
  • Which projects are in the pipeline?
  • How is demand from the stainless steel and other industries likely to develop in the next decade?
  • How is demand from lithium-ion batteries likely to develop and how will this affect the rest of the nickel industry?
  • What is the outlook for the market balance and for prices?

Subscribe now and receive:

  • A comprehensive report with ten-year forecasts
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  • Quarterly updates to supply, demand and price forecasts
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Table of Contents

1. Executive summary

  • 1.1 Nickel market overview
  • 1.2 Nickel demand
  • 1.3 Nickel supply
  • 1.4 Nickel trade
  • 1.5 Outlook

2. Nickel flowchart

3. World production

  • 3.1 Mine production of nickel
  • 3.2 Production of nickel intermediate products
  • 3.3 Refined production of nickel
    • 3.3.1 Production by country
    • 3.3.2 Production by process
    • 3.3.3 Production by type
      • 3.3.3.1 Electrolytic nickel cathode
      • 3.3.3.2 Powder and briquettes
      • 3.3.3.3 Ferronickel and NPI
      • 3.3.3.4 Primary nickel sulphate
    • 3.3.4 Top producers of nickel
  • 3.4 Recycling of nickel
    • 3.4.1 Recycling of nickel in metallurgical applications
    • 3.4.2 Recycling of nickel in batteries

4. Production costs

  • 4.1 Cost of production of nickel
  • 4.2 Trends in production costs
    • 4.2.1 Ore prices
    • 4.2.2 Power costs
    • 4.2.3 By-product metals
    • 4.2.4 Exchange rates
    • 4.2.5 Labour costs
    • 4.2.6 Transport Costs
  • 4.3 Nickel project analysis

5. World consumption

  • 5.1 Direct use of nickel
    • 5.1.1 First use by application
    • 5.1.2 Primary nickel consumption by form
  • 5.2 Primary consumption by region

6. International trade

  • 6.1 Nickel ores and concentrates
  • 6.2 Nickel intermediates
    • 6.2.1 Nickel matte
    • 6.2.2 Nickel oxides and sinters
  • 6.3 Ferronickel
  • 6.4 Unwrought nickel metal, not alloyed
  • 6.5 Nickel powders and flakes
  • 6.6 Nickel chemicals
    • 6.6.1 Nickel sulphate
    • 6.6.2 Nickel oxides and hydroxides
  • 6.7 Tariffs and other factors impacting the nickel market

7. Prices

  • 7.1 How nickel is priced
  • 7.2 Prices of refined nickel
  • 7.3 Prices of nickel ore
  • 7.4 Prices of nickel intermediates
  • 7.5 Prices of NPI
  • 7.6 Prices of nickel sulphate

8. Outlook

  • 8.1 Outlook for demand
    • 8.1.1 Stainless steel
    • 8.1.2 Alloy steels and castings
    • 8.1.3 Non-ferrous alloys
    • 8.1.4 Batteries
    • 8.1.5 Plating
    • 8.1.6 Nickel consumption in other applications
    • 8.1.7 Outlook for demand by type of nickel
    • 8.1.8 Outlook for nickel consumption by country
  • 8.2 Outlook for supply
    • 8.2.1 Key trends
      • 8.2.1.1 Developments in Indonesia
      • 8.2.1.2 Developments in China
      • 8.2.1.3 Developments in the Philippines
      • 8.2.1.4 Trends among other existing producers
      • 8.2.1.5 Conversion of NPI to matte
    • 8.2.2 Overview of new projects
      • 8.2.2.1 New mine production
      • 8.2.2.2 New intermediate production
      • 8.2.2.3 New refined production
    • 8.2.3 Base case outlook for supply
      • 8.2.3.1 Mine production
      • 8.2.3.2 Intermediate production
      • 8.2.3.3 Refined production
  • 8.3 Base-case outlook for primary refined market balance
  • 8.4 Base-case outlook for prices
    • 8.4.1 Effects of Indonesian NPI supply
    • 8.4.2 Incentive prices for Indonesian HPAL project development
    • 8.4.3 Nickel price bifurcation
    • 8.4.4 Base-case nickel price forecast
    • 8.4.5 Risk factors to the price forecast
  • 8.5 Alternative outlooks
    • 8.5.1 Demand upside
    • 8.5.2 Demand downside

9. Background

  • 9.1 History
  • 9.2 Properties
    • 9.2.1 Health and environmental issues
  • 9.3 Occurrence
    • 9.3.1 Sulphide ores
    • 9.3.2 Lateritic ores
  • 9.4 Reserves and resources
    • 9.4.1 World reserves
    • 9.4.2 World resources
  • 9.5 Processing of nickel
    • 9.5.1 Pyrometallurgical Processing
      • 9.5.1.1 Pyrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates
      • 9.5.1.2 Pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores
      • 9.5.1.3 Nickel Pig Iron
    • 9.5.2 Hydrometallurgical processing
      • 9.5.2.1 Hydrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates
      • 9.5.2.2 Hydrometallurgical processing of laterite ores
      • 9.5.2.3 Hydrometallurgical matte refining

10. Sustainability

  • 10.1 Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • 10.1.1 Environmental
      • 10.1.1.1 Resource consumption and emissions
      • 10.1.1.2 Water consumption
      • 10.1.1.3 Biodiversity and land use
      • 10.1.1.4 Tailings disposal
      • 10.1.1.5 'Green Steel'
    • 10.1.2 Social
      • 10.1.2.1 Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM)
      • 10.1.2.2 Human rights
    • 10.1.3 Governance
      • 10.1.3.1 Corruption
      • 10.1.3.2 Ease of Doing Business (EoDB)
  • 10.2 Critical raw materials
  • 10.3 Responsible sourcing initiatives
    • 10.3.1 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
    • 10.3.2 LME Red Flag Assessment scheme
    • 10.3.3 Global Reporting Initiative
    • 10.3.4 Responsible Mining Index
    • 10.3.5 Responsible Sourcing Blockchain Network (RSBN)
    • 10.3.6 Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance
    • 10.3.7 Responsible Steel Stewardship Initiative

11. Country profiles

  • 11.1 Albania
  • 11.2 Argentina
  • 11.3 Australia
  • 11.4 Austria
  • 11.5 Belgium
  • 11.6 Botswana
  • 11.7 Brazil
  • 11.8 Cameroon
  • 11.9 Canada
  • 11.10 China
    • 11.10.1 Mine production
    • 11.10.2 Class I nickel production
    • 11.10.3 Class II nickel production
  • 11.11 Colombia
  • 11.12 Cuba
  • 11.13 Cyprus
  • 11.14 Dominican Republic
  • 11.15 Finland
  • 11.16 France
  • 11.17 Germany
  • 11.18 Greece
  • 11.19 Guatemala
  • 11.20 India
  • 11.21 Indonesia
    • 11.21.1 Exports of Indonesian nickel ores
    • 11.21.2 Production of refined nickel in Indonesia
    • 11.21.3 Production of intermediate products in Indonesia
  • 11.22 Ivory Coast
  • 11.23 Japan
  • 11.24 Kazakhstan
  • 11.25 Kosovo
  • 11.26 North Macedonia
  • 11.27 Madagascar
  • 11.28 Malawi
  • 11.29 Myanmar
  • 11.30 New Caledonia
  • 11.31 Norway
  • 11.32 Papua New Guinea
  • 11.33 Philippines
  • 11.34 Poland
  • 11.35 Russia
  • 11.36 South Africa
  • 11.37 South Korea
  • 11.38 Spain
  • 11.39 Sweden
  • 11.40 Taiwan
  • 11.41 Tanzania
  • 11.42 Thailand
  • 11.43 Turkey
  • 11.44 Ukraine
  • 11.45 United Kingdom
  • 11.46 USA
  • 11.47 Venezuela
  • 11.48 Vietnam
  • 11.49 Zambia
  • 11.50 Zimbabwe

12. Company profiles

  • 12.1 Anglo American
    • 12.1.1 Brazil
    • 12.1.2 South Africa and Zimbabwe
  • 12.2 BHP Nickel West
  • 12.3 Eramet
    • 12.3.1 France
    • 12.3.2 New Caledonia
    • 12.3.3 Indonesia
  • 12.4 Glencore
    • 12.4.1 Australia
    • 12.4.2 Canada
    • 12.4.3 Norway
    • 12.4.4 New Caledonia
  • 12.5 Jinchuan Group Limited (JNMC)
  • 12.6 Nornickel
    • 12.6.1 MMC Kola
    • 12.6.2 Polar Division
    • 12.6.3 Harjavalta
  • 12.7 PT Antam
  • 12.8 Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM)
    • 12.8.1 Japan
    • 12.8.2 Philippines
  • 12.9 Tsingshan
  • 12.10 Vale
    • 12.10.1 Brazil
    • 12.10.2 Canada
    • 12.10.3 Indonesia
    • 12.10.4 Japan
    • 12.10.5 New Caledonia
    • 12.10.6 United Kingdom

13. Consumption by first use

  • 13.1 Stainless steel
    • 13.1.1 Types of stainless steel
    • 13.1.2 Stainless steel apparent consumption
    • 13.1.3 Stainless steel production
      • 13.1.3.1 Production by grade: substitution of 300-series complete
      • 13.1.3.2 Indonesia likely a limited growth pole for stainless
    • 13.1.4 Stainless steel scrap
    • 13.1.5 End uses of stainless steel
    • 13.1.6 Stainless steel outlook
    • 13.1.7 Outlook for nickel in stainless steel
  • 13.2 Alloy steels and castings
    • 13.2.1 Types of alloy steels
    • 13.2.2 Outlook for alloy steels & castings
  • 13.3 Non-ferrous alloys
    • 13.3.1 Types of non-ferrous alloys
    • 13.3.2 High-performance alloys
      • 13.3.2.1 HPA consumption by the aerospace industry
      • 13.3.2.2 HPA consumption by non- aerospace industries
    • 13.3.3 Special performance alloys
    • 13.3.4 General technical alloys
    • 13.3.5 Outlook for non-ferrous alloys
  • 13.4 Plating
    • 13.4.1 Types of nickel used
    • 13.4.2 Types of plating
    • 13.4.3 Applications of industrial nickel plating and coating
    • 13.4.4 Outlook for plating
  • 13.5 Batteries
    • 13.5.1 Outlook for nickel in batteries
    • 13.5.2 Battery industry overview
    • 13.5.3 Li-ion value chain
    • 13.5.4 Overview of main chemistries
    • 13.5.5 Material composition of cathodes
    • 13.5.6 Chemistry overview and outlook
    • 13.5.7 Automotive market
    • 13.5.8 Energy Storage
    • 13.5.9 Portable electronics
    • 13.5.10 Power & Motive applications
  • 13.6 Other applications

14. Macro economic outlook

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Nickel mine production by country, 2014-2020
  • Table 2: Production of refined nickel by country, 2014-2020
  • Table 3: Production of refined nickel by type, 2014-2020
  • Table 4: Major primary refined nickel producers, 2020
  • Table 5: nickel consumption by the stainless steel industry, 2014-2020
  • Table 6: Primary nickel consumption by application, 2014-2020
  • Table 7: Primary nickel consumption by application and form, 2014-2020
  • Table 8: Primary refined nickel consumption by region, 2014-2020
  • Table 9: Exports of nickel ores and concentrates: 2014-2020
  • Table 10: Imports of nickel ores and concentrates: 2014-2020
  • Table 11: Exports of nickel matte: 2014-2020
  • Table 12: Imports of nickel matte: 2014-2020
  • Table 13: Exports of nickel oxides and sinters, 2014-2020
  • Table 14: Imports of nickel oxides and sinters, 2014-2020
  • Table 15: Exports of ferronickel, 2014-2020
  • Table 16: Imports of ferronickel, 2014-2020
  • Table 17: Exports of nickel metal, 2014-2020
  • Table 18: Imports of nickel metal, 2014-2020
  • Table 19: Exports of nickel powders and flakes, 2014-2020
  • Table 20: Imports of nickel powders and flakes, 2014-2020
  • Table 21: Exports of nickel sulphate, 2014-2020
  • Table 22: Imports of nickel sulphate, 2014-2020
  • Table 23: Exports of nickel oxides and hydroxides, 2014-2020
  • Table 24: Imports of nickel oxides and hydroxides, 2014-2020
  • Table 25: China: Import tariff on nickel products, 2021
  • Table 26: LME-approved nickel brands
  • Table 27: LME-approved warehouse locations
  • Table 28: SHFE-approved nickel brands
  • Table 29: LME average nickel cash price, Q1 2013-Q4 2020
  • Table 30: Primary nickel consumption by application 2020-2030
  • Table 31: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2020-2030
  • Table 32: Forecast nickel use by the stainless steel industry, 2020-2030
  • Table 33: Forecast primary nickel use by the alloy steels and castings industries, 2020-2030
  • Table 34: Forecast primary nickel use by the non-ferrous alloys industries, 2020-2030
  • Table 35: Nickel use batteries by battery type and by use, 2020-2030
  • Table 36: Source of nickel consumed in batteries, 2019-2029
  • Table 37: Forecast primary nickel use by the plating industry, 2020-2030
  • Table 38: Forecast primary nickel use by other industries, 2020-2030
  • Table 39: Outlook for nickel demand by type and application 2020-2030
  • Table 40: Primary nickel consumption by country, 2020-2030
  • Table 41: Outlook for nickel mine production from potential new projects and restarts, 2021-2030
  • Table 42: Outlook for intermediate production from potential new projects, 2021-2030
  • Table 43: Outlook for refined nickel production from potential new projects and restarts, 2021-2030
  • Table 44: Outlook for nickel mine production, by country, 2020-2030
  • Table 45: Outlook for intermediate production of nickel, by country, 2020-2030
  • Table 46: Outlook for refined nickel supply by type, 2020-2030
  • Table 47: Outlook for production of refined nickel, 2021-2030
  • Table 48: Base case outlook for primary supply, demand and market balance, 2020-2030
  • Table 49: Base case price forecast for LME cash prices: 2020-2030
  • Table 50: Primary nickel consumption under upside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Table 51: Primary nickel market balance under base case and upside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Table 52: Upside scenario price forecast for LME cash prices: 2020-2030
  • Table 53: Market balance under base case and downside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Table 54: Downside scenario price forecast for LME cash prices: 2020-2030
  • Table 55: Selected properties of nickel
  • Table 56: Nickel-containing minerals
  • Table 57: World estimated nickel reserves, early 2021
  • Table 58: Nickel mine production vs Human Freedom Index
  • Table 59: Nickel mine production vs Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Table 60: Nickel mine production vs World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index
  • Table 61: Critical raw materials identified by key Government bodies
  • Table 62: Responsible sourcing initiatives and policies, 2021
  • Table 63: OECD Due Diligence Guidance for minerals - 5-Step Framework for Upstream and Downstream Supply Chains
  • Table 64: Albania: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 65: Albania: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 66: Australia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 67: Australia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 68: Australia: Details of advanced projects, 2021
  • Table 69: Australia: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 70: Austria: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 71: Austria: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 72: Belgium: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 73: Belgium: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 74: Botswana: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 75: Botswana: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 76: Brazil: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 77: Brazil: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 78: Brazil: Details of projects
  • Table 79: Canada: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 80: Canada: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 81: Canada: Details of advanced projects
  • Table 82: Canada: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 83: China: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 84: China: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 85: China: Details of NPI projects
  • Table 86: Colombia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 87: Colombia: South32 resources and reserves
  • Table 88: Colombia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 89: Cuba: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 90: Cuba: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 91: Dominican Republic: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 92: Dominican Republic: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 93: Finland: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 94: Finland: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 95: Finland: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 96: France: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 97: France: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 98: Germany: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 99: Greece: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 100: Greece: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 101: Guatemala: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 102: Guatemala: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 103: India: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 104: India: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 105: Indonesia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 106: Indonesia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 107: Indonesia: Details of NPI/ferronickel projects
  • Table 108: Indonesia: Details of intermediate and battery-grade nickel projects
  • Table 109: Ivory Coast: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 110: Ivory Coast: Details of projects
  • Table 111: Japan: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 112: Japan: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 113: Kosovo: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 114: Kosovo: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 115: North Macedonia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 116: North Macedonia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 117: Madagascar: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 118: Madagascar: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 119: Myanmar: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 120: Myanmar: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 121: New Caledonia mining districts
  • Table 122: New Caledonia: mines
  • Table 123: New Caledonia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 124: New Caledonia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 125: Norway: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 126: Norway: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 127: Papua New Guinea: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 128: Papua New Guinea: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 129: Papua New Guinea: Details of projects
  • Table 130: Philippines: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 131: Philippines: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 132: Philippines: Details of projects
  • Table 133: Poland: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 134: Russia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 135: Russia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 136: Russia: Details of projects
  • Table 137: South Africa: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 138: South Africa: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 139: South Korea: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 140: South Korea: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 141: Spain: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 142: Spain: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 143: Sweden: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 144: Taiwan: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 145: Taiwan: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 146: Tanzania: List of early-stage projects
  • Table 147: Thailand: Details of projects
  • Table 148: Turkey: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 149: Turkey: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 150: Turkey: Details of projects
  • Table 151: Ukraine: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 152: Ukraine: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 153: United Kingdom: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 154: United Kingdom: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 155: USA: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 156: USA: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 157: USA: Details of projects
  • Table 158: Venezuela: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 159: Vietnam: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 160: Vietnam: Details of projects
  • Table 161: Zambia: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 162: Zambia: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 163: Zimbabwe: Summary statistics, 2014-2020
  • Table 164: Zimbabwe: Summary of operations, 2020
  • Table 165: Anglo American: Summary of operations
  • Table 166: Anglo American: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 167: Anglo American: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 168: Brazil: Anglo American: Reserves and resources
  • Table 169: BHP Nickel West: Summary of operations
  • Table 170: BHP Nickel West: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 171: BHP Nickel West: Nickel resources
  • Table 172: BHP Nickel West: Nickel reserves
  • Table 173: BHP Nickel West: Quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 174: Eramet: Summary of operations
  • Table 175: Eramet: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 176: Sandouville: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 177: Glencore: Summary of operations
  • Table 178: Glencore: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 179: Glencore: Nickel resources
  • Table 180: Glencore: Nickel reserves
  • Table 181: Murrin Murrin: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 182: Nikkelverk refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 183: Koniambo: Refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 184: JNMC: Summary of operations
  • Table 185: JNMC: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 186: Nornickel: Summary of operations
  • Table 187: Nornickel: Production of refined nickel, 2014-2020
  • Table 188: Nornickel MMC Kola mining assets
  • Table 189: Nornickel Polar Division mining assets
  • Table 190: Nornickel: Nickel reserves
  • Table 191: Nornickel: Nickel resources
  • Table 192: PT Antam: Summary of operations
  • Table 193: PT Antam: Nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 194: PT Antam: Quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 195: PT Antam: Nickel reserves
  • Table 196: PT Antam: Nickel resources
  • Table 197: PT Antam: Gag Nickel reserves
  • Table 198: PT Antam: Gag Nickel resources
  • Table 199: SMM: Summary of operations
  • Table 200: Vale: Summary of operations
  • Table 201: Vale: Refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Table 202: Vale: nickel intermediates production, 2014-2020
  • Table 203: Vale proven and probable reserves
  • Table 204: Onça Puma quarterly ferronickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 205: Vale refined nickel production in Canada, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 206: Clydach quarterly refined nickel production, Q1 2018-Q4 2020
  • Table 207: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2014-2020
  • Table 208: Nickel consumption in stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Table 209: Nickel consumption in stainless steel, 2020-2030
  • Table 210: Production of crude stainless steel by region, 2014-2020
  • Table 211: net imports of stainless steel scrap
  • Table 212: Stainless steel apparent consumption forecast, 2020-2030
  • Table 213: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2020-2030
  • Table 214: Nickel consumption in alloy steels & castings, 2014-2020
  • Table 215: Primary nickel consumption in alloy steels and castings, 2020-2030
  • Table 216: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2014-2020
  • Table 217: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2020-2030
  • Table 218: Nuclear reactors under construction (November 2020)
  • Table 219: Primary nickel use in plating, 2014-2020
  • Table 220: Outlook for nickel in plating, 2020-2030
  • Table 221: Estimated breakdown of nickel use in plating by end-applications
  • Table 222: Nickel consumption in batteries, 2014-2020
  • Table 223: Forecast primary nickel consumption in batteries, 2020-2030
  • Table 224: Primary nickel consumption in other applications, 2020-2030
  • Table 225: Primary nickel consumption in other applications, 2020-2030
  • Table 226: Base Case Forecast GDP for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 227: Base Case Forecast GDP growth rates for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 228: Base Case Forecast GDP per capita for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 229: Forecast population for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 230: Forecast inflation for top-30 economies and regions, 2020-2031
  • Table 231: Forecast exchange rates and energy prices, 2020-2031

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: LME nickel cash price, 1997-2020
  • Figure 2: Primary nickel market balance and LME nickel cash price, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Refined nickel production by class of nickel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 4: Reported nickel stocks and LME nickel cash price, Jan 2014-Feb 2021
  • Figure 5: LME daily nickel cash price, Jan 2019-Mar 2021
  • Figure 6: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Primary nickel consumption by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Refined nickel production by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Refined nickel production by type, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Base case outlook for primary nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 11: Outlook for market balance and prices, 2020-2030
  • Figure 12: Nickel flowchart
  • Figure 13: Nickel mine production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 14: Nickel mine production by ore type and country, 2020
  • Figure 15: Nickel mine production by ore type, 2014-2020
  • Figure 16: Production of nickel intermediates by product, 2014-2020
  • Figure 17: Production of nickel intermediates by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Production of refined nickel by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Production of refined nickel by process, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Production of refined nickel by type, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Production of electrolytic nickel by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 22: Production of powder and briquettes by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 23: Production of ferronickel and NPI, 2014-2020
  • Figure 24: Production of ferronickel and NPI by country, 2014-2020
  • Figure 25: Production of primary nickel sulphate by country, 2020
  • Figure 26: Scrap use in stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 27: External scrap ratios in stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Use of primary versus secondary nickel in batteries, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Total cash and all-in sustaining cost curve for select producers, 2020
  • Figure 30: All-in sustaining cost curve for select producers by deposit type, 2020
  • Figure 31: Unit value of Philippine and Indonesian ore exports to China and LME nickel cash price. 2010-2020
  • Figure 32: Brent crude oil price, coal price and natural gas price, 2015-2020
  • Figure 33: Revenue share at nickel operations by metal, 2020
  • Figure 34: Nickel, cobalt and copper price, 2015-2020, Q1 2015=100
  • Figure 35: Exchange rates of major refined nickel producing countries, 2015-2020 (Q1 2015 = 100)
  • Figure 36; Ruble exchange rate movement, 2015-2020 (Q1 2015 = 100)
  • Figure 37: Quarterly Baltic Dry Shipping Index, 2015-2020
  • Figure 38: Nickel mining project capital intensity, 2020
  • Figure 39: Nickel project incentive price required to deliver a 20% IRR1
  • Figure 40: primary nickel consumption, 2019-2020
  • Figure 41: Primary nickel use by application and form, 2020
  • Figure 42: Refined nickel consumption by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 43: Major exports of nickel ores and concentrates by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 44: Major exports of nickel matte by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 45: Major exports of nickel oxides and sinters by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 46: Major exports of ferronickel by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 47: Major exports of nickel powders and flakes by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 48: Major exports of nickel sulphate by origin and destination, 2020
  • Figure 49: LME stocks by type, 2014-2021
  • Figure 50: LME stocks and cancelled warrants, Jan 2019-Jan 2021
  • Figure 51: SHFE nickel stocks, Apr 2015-Dec 2020
  • Figure 52: Total reported stocks: Jan 2014-Feb 2020
  • Figure 53: LME nickel cash price, Jan 2000-Dec 2020
  • Figure 54: LME nickel cash-3M contango/backwardation, Jan 2019-Jan 2021
  • Figure 55: Price of nickel ores, Jan 2016-Dec 2020
  • Figure 56: Indicative nickel payability for tradeable MHP and MSP, 2014-2020
  • Figure 57: Indicative nickel payability and volume for MHP and MSP imports from China, 2014-2020
  • Figure 58: Indicative nickel payability and volume for MSP imports from Japan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 59: NPI price vs nickel metal price, Jan 2014-Dec 2020
  • Figure 60: Tradeable NPI stocks at Chinese NPI plants
  • Figure 61: Trends in the prices of nickel metal and nickel sulphate, Jan 2013-Dec 2020
  • Figure 62: China: Nickel sulphate premium over nickel metal price, Jan 2013-Dec 2020
  • Figure 63: Primary nickel consumption by application 2020-2030
  • Figure 64: Stainless steel apparent consumption forecast, 2020-2030
  • Figure 65: Forecast crude stainless steel production, 2020-2030
  • Figure 66: Forecast crude stainless steel production by grade, 2020-2030
  • Figure 67: Forecast nickel use in stainless steel by source of nickel units, 2020-2030
  • Figure 68: Oil & gas rig count and Brent crude oil price, Jan 2019-Feb 2021
  • Figure 69: Global automotive production, Q1 2019-Q4 2020
  • Figure 70: Global automotive sales, 2014-2030
  • Figure 71: Forecast demand, deliveries, and production of civilian aircraft, 2019-2030
  • Figure 72: World: Outlook for nickel use in batteries by battery type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 73: Nickel use by type of battery market, 2020-2030
  • Figure 74: Nickel consumption in batteries by share, 2020-2030
  • Figure 75: Outlook for primary nickel use in stainless steel by class of nickel, 2010-2030
  • Figure 76: Primary nickel consumption by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 77: Historical and forecast Class II production in Indonesia, 2010-2030
  • Figure 78: Forecast new production of hydrometallurgical intermediates and nickel matte in Indonesia, 2021-2030
  • Figure 79: Forecast refined nickel production in China, 2017-2030
  • Figure 80: Outlook for nickel mine production from mining projects, 2021-2030
  • Figure 81: Outlook for nickel intermediate production from projects by product, 2021-2030
  • Figure 82: Outlook for expected nickel intermediate production from projects by country, 2021-2030
  • Figure 83: Outlook for refined nickel production from projects and restarts, 2021-2030
  • Figure 84: Outlook for nickel mine production by ore type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 85: Outlook for nickel mine production by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 86: Outlook for intermediate production by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 87: Outlook for intermediate production by product, 2020-2030
  • Figure 88: Outlook for refined nickel supply by type, 2020-2030
  • Figure 89: Outlook for nickel supply by country, 2020-2030
  • Figure 90: Primary nickel balance, 2014-2020
  • Figure 91: Base case outlook for primary nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 92: Revisited: Forecast new production of hydrometallurgical intermediates and nickel matte in Indonesia, 2021-2030
  • Figure 93: Nickel project incentive price required to deliver a 20% IRR
  • Figure 94: Base case price forecast and nickel market balance, 2020-2030
  • Figure 95: Nickel market balance and price under base case and upside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Figure 96: Nickel market balance and price under base case and downside scenario, 2020-2030
  • Figure 97: Average grades of nickel sulphide ores by country
  • Figure 98: Average grades of laterite reserves by country
  • Figure 99: Simplified flowchart of main nickel production process
  • Figure 100: Typical pyro metallurgical processing of sulphide ores flowsheet
  • Figure 101: Typical pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores flowsheet
  • Figure 102: NPI production process flowsheet
  • Figure 103: Typical hydro metallurgical processing of laterite ores flowsheet
  • Figure 104: UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Figure 105: Roskill's ESG framework
  • Figure 106: Primary energy demand and global warming potential for nickel products
  • Figure 107: Total CO2 emissions from shipping transport of nickel sulphate feedstocks, 2020
  • Figure 108: Nickel mine production vs Human Freedom Index
  • Figure 109: Nickel mine production vs Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index
  • Figure 110: Nickel mine production vs World Bank's Ease of Doing Business
  • Figure 111: Criticality matrix
  • Figure 112: European CRM list 2020
  • Figure 113: Australia: Nickel mineral occurrences and operating mines, 2021
  • Figure 114: Australia mine, intermediate and primary production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 115: Brazil mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 116: Brazil: refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 117: Canada mine, intermediate and primary production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 118: Canada, refined nickel production, Q1 2016-Q4 2020
  • Figure 119: China mine, intermediate refined and NPI production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 120: Cuba: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 121: Finland: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 122: Indonesia: mine, intermediate and refined production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 123: Indonesia: Exports of nickel ores and concentrates, Q1 2010-Q4 2020
  • Figure 124: Indonesia: production of ferronickel and NPI, 2014-2020
  • Figure 125: Indonesia: production of nickel intermediates, Q1 2016-Q4 2020
  • Figure 126: New Caledonia: mine, intermediate and refined nickel production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 127: New Caledonia, refined nickel production Q1 2017-Q4 2020
  • Figure 128: Papua New Guinea: Ramu NiCo production, Q1 2017-Q4 2020
  • Figure 129: Philippines: mine and intermediate nickel production, 2011-2020
  • Figure 130: China: imports of ores and concentrates by source, 2010-2020
  • Figure 131: Philippines: production of nickel intermediates, 2014-2020
  • Figure 132: Russia: Nornickel refined production, Q1 2016-Q4 2020
  • Figure 133: Turkey: mine and intermediate production, 2014-2020
  • Figure 134: Anglo American diagram of operations
  • Figure 135: BHP Billiton diagram of operations
  • Figure 136: Glencore diagram of operations
  • Figure 137: Nornickel diagram of operations
  • Figure 138: SMM diagram of operations
  • Figure 139: Tsingshan diagram of operations
  • Figure 140: Vale diagram of operations
  • Figure 141: Primary nickel consumption by first use, 2014-2020
  • Figure 142: Forecast nickel use in stainless steel by source of units, 2014-2030
  • Figure 143: Apparent consumption of stainless steel, 2014-2020
  • Figure 144: Production of crude stainless steel by region, 2014-2020
  • Figure 145: Production of crude stainless steel by grade, 2014-2020
  • Figure 146: Global nickel content in stainless steel and scrap ratio, 2014-2020
  • Figure 147: Estimated end-use of stainless by sector, 2020
  • Figure 148: Forecast crude steel production by region, 2020-2030
  • Figure 149: Forecast crude stainless steel production by grade
  • Figure 150: Outlook for nickel contained in stainless steel and scrap ratio, 2014-2030
  • Figure 151: Primary nickel consumption in alloy steels and castings, 2014-2030
  • Figure 152: Global installed wind power capacity, 2010-2024
  • Figure 153: Primary nickel consumption in non-ferrous alloys, 2014-2030
  • Figure 154: Civilian jet aircraft deliveries: 2014-2020
  • Figure 155: Forecast demand, deliveries, and production of civilian aircraft, 2019-2030
  • Figure 156: Forecast power generation by fuel, 2020-2030
  • Figure 157: Primary nickel consumption in plating, 2014-2020
  • Figure 158: Nickel use in plating, 2014-2020
  • Figure 159: Total vehicle sales, 2020-2030
  • Figure 160: Li-ion cell structure including exterior cell components
  • Figure 161: Gravimetric Energy density at cathode level, 2020
  • Figure 162: Simplified value chain for Li-ion batteries
  • Figure 163: Crystal structure of ideal LiCoO2
  • Figure 164: Crystal structure of ideal LiMn2O4
  • Figure 165: Material composition by cathode chemistry
  • Figure 166: Cathode chemistry split, 2014-2020
  • Figure 167: Vehicle sales, 2014-2020
  • Figure 168: Passenger vehicle sales, 2014-2030
  • Figure 169: Forecast sales of batteries by vehicle category, 2014-2030
  • Figure 170: Cathode chemistry split in the automotive segment, 2014-2030
  • Figure 171: Use of batteries in ESS, 2020
  • Figure 172: Forecast battery use in ESS, 2014-2030
  • Figure 173: Use of Li-ion batteries in portable products, 2020
  • Figure 174: Use of batteries in portable electronics, 2014-2030 350