Product Code: PGREleOct16
Title:
Electricity Costs and Economics: 2015 to 2025
Finding the optimum balance between renewable and conventional power generation in a carbon-constrained world. Intelligent comparison of the top resources available, including Lazard, Decc, EIA, IEA, IRENA, and Eurostat.
Executive Summary
Electricity Costs and Economics: 2015 to 2025 - Electricity is the most important energy source in the modern age but also the most ephemeral, a source that must be consumed as fast as it is produced. This makes modeling the economics of electricity production more complex than carrying out the same exercise for other products. Accurate modeling is important because it forms the basis for future investment decisions. In the electricity sector two fundamental yardsticks are used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity. The latter is a lifecycle cost analysis of a power plant that uses assumptions about the future value of money to convert all future costs and revenues into current prices. This model is widely used in the power industry but has some significant failings, particularly in its ability to handle risk. Even so these two measures, together, are the first consulted when power sector investment and planning decisions are to be made.
Electricity Costs and Economics supply and demand
Production of electricity has always involved an element of risk but this has been extended, and in some cases magnified by the introduction of liberalized electricity markets. One big source of risk is fuel price risk. If an investment is made today based on a predicted cost of natural gas that turns out to be wildly in error because prices soar, as has happened during the past decade, then that investment will be in danger of failing to be economical to operate. Therefore some measure of the risk of fuel price volatility should be included in any economic model. Other risks arise where large capital investment is required in untested technology. Meanwhile the liberalized market has introduced new types of risk more often associated with financial markets.
Electricity Costs and Economics on global scale
The power sector still remains an attractive area for investment but investors are now more cautious than previously. Global warming continues to be a dominant theme but alongside that there is a new pragmatism about fossil fuel combustion which will continue to dominate the power sector for another generation at least. Meanwhile renewable sources of generation continue to advance, led principally by wind power but with solar capacity growing rapidly too, though from a small base.
Key features of this report
- Analysis of power generation costs concepts, drivers and components.
- Assessment of electricity costs for different technologies in terms of the two fundamental yardsticks used for cost comparison, capital cost and the levelized cost of electricity.
- Insight relating to the most innovative technologies and potential areas of opportunity for manufacturers.
- Examination of the key power generation technologies costs.
- Identification of the key trends shaping the market, as well as an evaluation of emerging trends that will drive innovation moving forward.
Key benefits from reading this report
- Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive power cost analysis in electricity power generation markets.
- Assess power generation costs and analysis - including capital costs, overnight costs, levelized costs and risk analysis.
- Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which technology trends are likely to allow greater market impact.
- Compare how carbon costs will effect the industry in direct comparisons or renewable and conventional technologies using financial and life cycle analysis.
- Quantify structural costs of grid extension, the effect of drivers, legislation and tariffs, installation costs, and the cost of electricity.
Key findings of this report
- 1. Onshore wind power is potentially the cheapest of all the renewable technologies and it can be built for as little as $1,850/kW.
- 2. South Korean coal-fired power plants were estimated to cost $1,218/kW while in China the cost was even lower at $813/kW.
- 3. Adding CCS to a combined cycle power plant would raise the cost of electricity from the plant to $100.2/MWh.
- 4. A PC plant with CCS, meanwhile would provide electricity for £107/MWh.
- 5. In China the cost of wind power is notably higher than in the USA at $46/MWh, $60/MWh and $72/MWh at the three discount rates and in Germany it is much higher ($77/MWh - $108/MWh).
Key questions answered by this report
- What are the drivers shaping and influencing power plant development in the electricity industry?
- What are the life cycle carbon emissions of the various power generation technologies?
- What is power generation going to cost?
- Which power generation technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms power generated, cost and viability?
- Which power generation types are likely to find favour with manufacturers moving forward?
- Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity and why?
Who this report is for
Power utility strategists, energy analysts, research managers, power sector manufacturers, power developers, investors in renewables systems and infrastructure, renewable energy developers, energy/power planning managers, energy/power development managers, governmental organisations, system operators, companies investing in renewable power infrastructure and generation, investment banks, infrastructure developers and investors, intergovernmental lenders, energy security analysts.
Why buy Electricity Costs and Economics: 2015 to 2025
- To utilise in-depth assessment and analysis of the current and future technological and market state of power, carried out by an industry expert with 30 years in the power generation industry.
- Use cutting edge information and data.
- Use the highest level of research carried out. expert analysis to say what is happening in the market and what will happen next.
- Have the ‘what if' questions answered.
- Save time and money by having top quality research done for you at a low cost.
Table of Contents
About the author
- Disclaimer
- Note about authors and sources
Table of contents
Table of tables
Table of figures
Executive summary
- Chapter 1 - Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future
- Chapter 2 - The capital cost of power generation technologies
- Chapter 3 - The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies
- Chapter 4 - Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects
Chapter 1 - Electricity and fuel cost trends: the signature of the past and signs for the future
- Summary
- Introduction
- Global power generation
- Fuel costs
- Fuel cost volatility and risk
- The historical cost of electricity
- Retail prices and distributed generation
Chapter 2 - The capital cost of electricity generating technologies
- Summary
- Introduction
- Capacity factor
- Commodity prices and world markets
- Lead times
- Capital costs
- Solar photovoltaic costs
- Capital cost trends
- Regional variations in capital costs
Chapter 3 - The future cost of electricity: the levelized cost of power from conventional, nuclear and renewable technologies
- Summary
- Introduction
- The levelized cost of energy
- Levelized costs of electricity
- Levelized cost trends
- Regional variation in levelized cost
- Subsidies and other distortions
Chapter 4 - Global electricity generating capacity and the cost of power: technology growth trends and prospects
- Summary
- Introduction
- Global capacity and production levels
- A changing role for conventional generation
- Renewable growth
- The nuclear debate
- Natural gas developments
- Future generation costs
- Global finance
- Future outlook
- List of abbreviations
Table of tables
- Table 1: Global power generation 1985 - 2015 (TWh), 2016
- Table 2: Global electricity production by source in 2013 (TWh), 2015
- Table 3: Global electricity production by region in 2015 (TWh), 2016
- Table 4: Cost of fossil fuels for power generation ($/GJ and US standard units) for 2014, 2016
- Table 5: Average spot price for crude oil 1990 - 2015 ($/bbl), 2016 (Part 1)
- Table 5: Average spot price for crude oil 1990 - 2015 ($/bbl), 2016 (Part 2)
- Table 6: The average cost of natural gas 1990 - 2015 ($/GJ), 2016 (Part 1)
- Table 6: The average cost of natural gas 1990 - 2015 ($/GJ), 2016 (Part 2)
- Table 7: Average annual cost of natural gas to US utilities (2004 - 2015) ($/GJ), 2016
- Table 8: Annual cost of steam coal 1992 - 2015 ($/tonne), 2016 (Part 1)
- Table 8: Annual cost of steam coal 1992 - 2015 ($/tonne), 2016 (Part 2)
- Table 9: Annual cost of coal to US utilities 2005 - 2016 ($/tonne), 2016
- Table 10: US retail electricity costs 2005 - 2015 ($/MWh), 2016
- Table 11: Average retail electricity prices within the European Union 2007 - 2015 ($/€), 2016
- Table 12: Japanese retail electricity costs 2009 - 2014 (Yen/MWh), 2015
- Table 13: Typical capacity factors for the main power generating technologies (%), 2015
- Table 14: New power plants capital costs in the US in 2014 ($/kW), 2015
- Table 15: Lazard capital cost estimates for generating technologies ($/kW), 2015
- Table 16: UK capital costs for low-carbon generating technologies (£/kW), 2013
- Table 17: European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules 2010 - 2016 (€/W), 2016
- Table 18: US generating technology capital cost trends 2001 - 2015 ($/kW), 2015
- Table 19: Coal-fired power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Table 20: Combined cycle gas turbine power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Table 21: Onshore wind plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Table 22: Solar photovoltaic capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Table 23: US levelized cost of electricity for generating plants entering service in 2020 (2013 $/MWh), 2015
- Table 24: Lazard levelized cost of electricity in the USA in 2015 ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 25: UK levelized costs for plants entering service in 2019 (£/MWh), 2013
- Table 26: US EIA levelized cost of electricity trends 2009 - 2015 ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 27: Levelized cost of electricity from coal fired power plants, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 28: Levelized cost of electricity from natural gas-fired combined cycle plants, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 29: Levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind installations, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 30: Levelized cost of electricity from solar pV installations, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 31: Predicted global electricity generation by fuel (TWh)
- Table 32: Total global renewable capacities 2015 (GW), 2016
- Table 33: Predicted global renewable electricity generation by source 2012 - 2040 (TWh), 2016
- Table 34: Renewable growth rates 2010 - 2015 (%), 2016
- Table 35: Predicted US gas prices, 2014 - 2040 ($/GJ), 2016
- Table 36: Predicted US coal prices 2012 - 2040 ($/tonne), 2015
- Table 37: US levelized generation costs in 2020 ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 38: Projected levelized costs in the UK for different generating technologies 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
- Table 39: Predicted cost of key renewable technologies in 2025 ($/MWh), 2015
- Table 40: Annual global investment in renewable technologies 2005 - 2015 ($bn), 2016
- Table 41: Investment in renewable technologies by technology in 2015 ($bn), 2016
Table of figures
- Figure 1: Global power generation 1985 - 2015 (TWh), 2016
- Figure 2: Global electricity production by source in 2013 (TWh), 2015
- Figure 3: Global electricity production by region in 2015 (TWh), 2016
- Figure 4: Cost of fossil fuels for power generation ($/GJ and US standard units) for 2014, 2016
- Figure 5: Average spot price for crude oil 1990 - 2015 ($/bbl), 2016
- Figure 6: The average cost of natural gas 1990 - 2015 ($/GJ), 2016
- Figure 7: Average annual cost of natural gas to US utilities (2004 - 2015) ($/GJ), 2016
- Figure 8: Annual cost of steam coal 1992 - 2015 ($/tonne), 2016
- Figure 9: Annual cost of coal to US utilities 2005 - 2016 ($/tonne), 2016
- Figure 10: US retail electricity costs 2005 - 2015 ($/MWh), 2016
- Figure 11: Average retail electricity prices within the European Union 2007 - 2015 ($/€), 2016
- Figure 12: Japanese retail electricity costs 2009 - 2014 (Yen/MWh), 2015
- Figure 13: Typical capacity factors for the main power generating technologies (%), 2015
- Figure 14: New power plants capital costs in the US in 2014 ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 15: Lazard capital cost estimates for generating technologies ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 16: UK capital costs for low-carbon generating technologies (£/kW), 2013
- Figure 17: European spot prices for crystalline solar cell modules 2010 - 2016 (€/W), 2016
- Figure 18: US generating technology capital cost trends 2001 - 2015 ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 19: Coal-fired power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 20: Combined cycle gas turbine power plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 21: Onshore wind plant capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 22: Solar photovoltaic capital cost by country ($/kW), 2015
- Figure 23: US levelized cost of electricity for generating plants entering service in 2020 (2013 $/MWh), 2015
- Figure 24: Lazard levelized cost of electricity in the USA in 2015 ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 25: UK levelized costs for plants entering service in 2019 (£/MWh), 2013
- Figure 26: US EIA levelized cost of electricity trends 2009 - 2015 ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 27: Levelized cost of electricity from coal fired power plants, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 28: Levelized cost of electricity from natural gas-fired combined cycle plants, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 29: Levelized cost of electricity from onshore wind installations, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 30: Levelized cost of electricity from solar pV installations, by country ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 31: Predicted global electricity generation by fuel (TWh)
- Figure 32: Total global renewable capacities 2015 (GW), 2016
- Figure 33: Predicted global renewable electricity generation by source 2012 - 2040 (TWh), 2016
- Figure 34: Renewable growth rates 2010 - 2015 (%), 2016
- Figure 35: Predicted US gas prices, 2014 - 2040 ($/GJ), 2016
- Figure 36: Predicted US coal prices 2012 - 2040 ($/tonne), 2015
- Figure 37: US levelized generation costs in 2020 ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 38: Projected levelized costs in the UK for different generating technologies 2014 - 2030 (£/MWh), 2013
- Figure 39: Predicted cost of key renewable technologies in 2025 ($/MWh), 2015
- Figure 40: Annual global investment in renewable technologies 2005 - 2015 ($bn), 2016
- Figure 41: Investment in renewable technologies by technology in 2015 ($bn), 2016
