Indonesia's 5G progress depending on end-2020 auction
Indonesia's large population and complex geography pose a number of challenges for governments to develop economic growth. These challenges are mirrored in the telecom sector, which is well served by mobile infrastructure, but which has inadequate fixed-line capacity in many areas. Continued progress in developing the telecom sector requires further government action on restructuring the industry, promoting foreign investment and encouraging further competition.
The Indonesian data centre market has experienced significant growth over the past two decades as the country has sought to bridge the gap with neighbours such as Singapore and Malaysia. The market is attracting investment from hyperscale cloud providers such as Google, Alibaba and Amazon.
Compared to other Asian nations, Indonesia has very low fixed line and fixed broadband penetration, high mobile penetration and moderate mobile broadband penetration. Development of the fixed broadband market has been restricted due to poor infrastructure, though the number of subscribers of the two main providers, which between them command a 93% market share, increased by around 22% in 2019. The market has considerable room for growth, given that household penetration is only about 15%.
The extensive reach of 3G and LTE networks provide voice and data coverage to the vast majority of the population. Although the MNOs have trialled 5G since mid-2019 the sector has been hampered by the lack of available spectrum. In recent years the market has been characterised by high growth in data services and a reduction in the use of voice and SMS.
BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.
On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.
Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.
The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.
Key Developments
- Steady growth anticipated in mobile broadband through to 2025, supported by high smartphone penetration;
- Smartfren selects ZTE to help develop 5G;
- Report update includes Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of COVID-19 on the telecoms sector, MoCI's 2019 market report, operator data to Q2 2020, recent market developments.
Key companies mentioned in this report:
Telkom; Indosat; Satelindo; Smart Telecom, Bakrie Telecom, Temasek, TelkomNet, Telkomsel.
Table of Contents
Key statistics
Regional Asian Market Comparison
Country overview
COVID-19 and its impact on the telecom sector
- Economic considerations and responses
- Mobile devices
- Subscribers
- Infrastructure
Telecommunications market
- Market analysis
- Historical overview
Regulatory environment
- Regulatory authority
- Ministry of Communication and Informatics (MoCI)
- Fixed-line developments
- Telecommunications Law 1989
- Telecommunications Law 2000
- Telecommunications reform
- Badan Regulasi Telekomunikasi Indonesia (BRTI)
- Foreign ownership
- Access
- Universal Service Obligation (USO)
- Mobile network developments
- Spectrum
- Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
Mobile market
- Market overview and analysis
- Mobile statistics
- Mobile infrastructure
- 5G
- 4G / LTE
- Other infrastructure developments
- IoT and M2M networks
- Mobile broadband
- Major mobile operators
- Operator statistics
- XL Axiata
- Telkomsel
- Indosat Ooredoo
- Hutchison 3 Indonesia
- Smartfren Telecom
- Bakrie Telecom (BTEL)
- Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia (STI) / (Net1)
- Internux (Bolt!)
Fixed-line broadband market
- Market overview and analysis
- Fixed broadband service providers
- TelkomNet
- LinkNet
- MNC Kabel Mediacom
- Biznet Networks
- XL Axiata
- MyRepublic (Indonesia)
- Fixed line broadband technologies
- Fixed wireless (WiFi and WiMAX)
Fixed network operators
- Telkom Indonesia
- Indosat Ooredoo
Telecommunications infrastructure
- Overview of the national telecom network
- NGN, fibre networks
- Palapa Ring Project
- High-Speed Broadband (HSBB) project
- TITO (Trade In Trade Off) Access Modernisation Project
- Other developments
- International infrastructure
- International gateway exchanges
- Submarine cable networks
- Satellite networks
- Data centres
- Market overview
- Major data centre providers
- Smart infrastructure
Glossary of abbreviations
Related reports
List of Tables
- Table 1 - Top level country statistics and telco authorities - 2020 (e)
- Table 2 - Development of telecom sector contribution to non-tax state revenue - 2011 - 2019
- Table 3 - Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Table 4 - Decline in mobile voice traffic - 2014 - 2018
- Table 6 - Decline in SMS traffic - 2014 - 2018
- Table 7 - Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Table 8 - Growth in the number of Telkomsel's mobile broadband subscribers - 2012 - 2020
- Table 9 - Market share of mobile subscribers by major operator - 2017 - 2018
- Table 10 - Change in the number of XL Axiata's mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2020
- Table 11 - Change in XL Axiata's mobile ARPU - 2013 - 2020
- Table 12 - Development of XL Axiata's financial data - 2013 - 2020
- Table 13 - Change in the number of Telkomsel's mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2020
- Table 14 - Development of Telkomsel's mobile revenue - 2013 - 2019
- Table 15 - Development of Telkomsel's mobile blended ARPU - 2013 - 2020
- Table 16 - Change in the number of Indosat Ooredoo's mobile subscribers - 2013 - 2020
- Table 17 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's mobile ARPU (IDR) - 2016 - 2020
- Table 18 - Change in Indosat Ooredoo's ARPU (QAR) - 2013 - 2020
- Table 19 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's revenue by type (QAR) - 2013 - 2020
- Table 20 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's financial data (QAR) - 2013 - 2020
- Table 21 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's revenue by type (IDR) - 2012 - 2020
- Table 22 - Change in the number of 3 Indonesia's subscribers - 2010 - 2019
- Table 23 - Development of 3 Indonesia's mobile revenue - 2017 - 2019
- Table 24 - Change in the number of Smartfren' mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2018
- Table 25 - Development of Smartfren's financial data - 2016 - 2020
- Table 26 - Growth in the number of Internux (Bolt!)'s mobile subscribers - 2014 - 2018
- Table 27 - Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers, penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Table 28 - Change in the number of DSL subscribers - 2010 - 2021
- Table 29 - Change in the number of fibre broadband subscribers - 2016 - 2021
- Table 30 - Growth in the number of Telkom's fixed broadband subscribers - 2010 - 2020
- Table 31 - Development of PT Telkom's financial data - 2010 - 2020
- Table 32 - Change in the number of fixed lines and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Table 33 - Growth in international internet bandwidth - 2010 - 2018
- Table 34 - Historic - Mobile subscribers - 1995 - 2009
- Table 35 - Historic - Frequency spectrum overview - major mobile operators (2015)
- Table 36 - Historic - XL Axiata mobile subscribers - 2007 - 2009
- Table 37 - Historic - Telkomsel mobile subscribers - 2007 - 2009
- Table 38 - Historic - Telkom's fixed broadband subscribers - 2004 - 2009
- Table 39 - Historic - Indosat Ooredoo - mobile subscribers - 2007 - 2013
- Table 40 - Historic - 3 Indonesia subscribers - 2007 - 2009
- Table 41 - Historic - Major mobile operators by system - 2010
- Table 42 - Historic - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2005 - 2009
- Table 43 - Historic - DSL subscribers - 2001 - 2009
- Table 44 - Historic - International internet bandwidth - 2005 - 2009
- Table 45 - Historic - Internet users - 1998 - 2006
- Table 46 - Historic - Bakrie Telecom mobile subscribers - 2007 - 2015
List of Charts
- Chart 1 - Asian Telecoms Maturity Index by Market Category
- Chart 2 - Asian Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
- Chart 3 - Telecoms Maturity Index - South East Asia
- Chart 5 - Development of telecom sector contribution to non-tax state revenue - 2011 - 2019
- Chart 6 - Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Chart 7 - Decline in mobile voice traffic - 2014 - 2018
- Chart 8 - Decline in SMS traffic - 2014 - 2018
- Chart 9 - Growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Chart 10 - Growth in the number of Telkomsel's mobile broadband subscribers - 2012 - 2020
- Chart 11 - Change in the number of XL Axiata's mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2020
- Chart 12 - Change in XL Axiata's mobile ARPU - 2013 - 2020
- Chart 13 - Development of XL Axiata's financial data - 2013 - 2020
- Chart 14 - Change in the number of Telkomsel's mobile subscribers - 2010 - 2020
- Chart 15 - Development of Telkomsel's mobile revenue - 2013 - 2019
- Chart 16 - Change in the number of Indosat Ooredoo's mobile subscribers - 2013 - 2020
- Chart 17 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's mobile ARPU (IDR) - 2016 - 2020
- Chart 18 - Change in Indosat Ooredoo's ARPU (QAR) - 2013 - 2020
- Chart 19 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's revenue by type (QAR) - 2013 - 2020
- Chart 20 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's financial data (QAR) - 2013 - 2020
- Chart 21 - Development of Indosat Ooredoo's revenue by type (IDR) - 2012 - 2020
- Chart 22 - Change in the number of 3 Indonesia's subscribers - 2010 - 2019
- Chart 23 - Development of 3 Indonesia's mobile revenue - 2017 - 2019
- Chart 24 - Growth in the number of fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Chart 25 - Growth in the number of Telkom's fixed broadband subscribers - 2010 - 2020
- Chart 26 - Development of PT Telkom's financial data - 2010 - 2020
- Chart 27 - Change in the number of fixed lines and penetration - 2010 - 2025
- Chart 28 - Growth in international internet bandwidth - 2010 - 2018
- Chart 29 - Mobile subscriber and mobile broadband penetration rates in countries to benefit from the Kacific-1 satellite
List of Exhibits
- Exhibit 1 - Key Market Characteristics by Market Segment
- Exhibit 2 - South East Asia - Key Characteristics of Telecoms Markets by Country
- Exhibit 3 - Major shareholders in Indosat
- Exhibit 4 - Major shareholders in Telkom
- Exhibit 5 - Palapa Ring Project - specification of rings
- Exhibit 6 - Indonesian satellites
