瞬息萬變電動車市場中的電池更換新機會

本報告研究推動電池更換為目標的組織所面臨的課題和機會。分析目前電池更換未獲廣泛利用的理由、推動電池更換最佳的車輛部門、電池更換對公共事業負荷形成的影響，特別是高使用率地區中電池更換對公共事業的商業模式影響。

建議

過去電池更換產業的低迷未反映未來機會

• 電池更換技術的糟糕的開端並非糟糕的結局
• 前導測試的第二波瞄準輕型車量
• 競爭劇烈中國市場中輕型電動車製造商摸索差異化
• 其他開發提案更多前導計畫

對於目前充電技術而言電池更換的優勢深具魅力，但存在相當大的課題

• 電池更換改善了電池健康及生命週期的可視性
• 技術提供了擴張的VGI優點
• 電池更換可延遲輸配電升級
• 電池標準化為一大阻礙
• 成本和可靠性為重要關心事項

車輛能源需求最少時，電池更換機會最佳

• 微型交通提供商需思考、電動機車、人力車、低速車等輕型電動車的電池更換前導計畫
• 差異化顯示了高速公路的電氣機會
• 充電服務企業需要決定電池更換如何適合商業模式
• 公共事業應調查二次電池市場

Initial battery-swapping efforts during the early 2010s sought to allow battery EV (BEV) owners to quickly replace batteries, offering drivers practically unlimited driving range. However, the high cost of batteries and low number of vehicles that could access swap stations contributed to market failure. Considering current efforts by automakers and ridesharing companies, the 2010 battery-swapping approach might have been the right move at the wrong time.

Renewed interest in battery swapping has coincided with dramatic decreases in battery costs per kilowatt-hour and rapid growth in the EV market. In addition, CO emissions concerns and urban air pollution have helped bring focus to EV use, specifically in urban areas. These dynamics have provided opportunities for battery-swapping niches to emerge.

This Navigant Research, a Guidehouse company, ‘Strategy Insight ’ report gives an overview of the challenges and opportunities currently faced by organizations seeking to promote battery-swapping. It identifies market segments that offer the best prospects for fostering the nascent battery-swapping market and recommendations for decision makers. This report's findings are especially relevant to fleet managers and utility decision makers who need to determine whether battery swapping makes sense for their organizations.

Key Questions Addressed:

• Why did battery swapping fail during a major push in the early 2010s?

• Why is battery swapping not commonly available now?

• Which vehicle segments are most suitable to foster battery swapping?

• How will battery swapping likely affect utility load shapes?

• In what ways can battery swapping affect utility business models, specifically in areas with time of use rates?

• How can fleet managers leverage battery swapping to add value to their organizations?

• Which types of organizations should consider partnerships to take advantage of battery-swapping opportunities?

Who Needs This Report:

• Fleet managers
• Utility executives
• Automobile and bus manufacturers
• Charging station operators
• Two-wheel and three-wheel vehicle manufacturers
• Investor community

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

The Past Lackluster Performance of the Battery-Swapping Industry Does Not Reflect Future Opportunities

• A Bad Start Is Not a Bad Ending for Battery-Swapping Technology

• Second-Wave Pilots Target Light Vehicles

• Light Duty EV Makers in Highly Competitive China Seek Differentiation

• Other Developments Suggest More Pilots Programs to Come

The Advantages of Battery Swapping over Current Charging Technologies Are Enticing, But Its Challenges Are Significant

• Battery Swapping Offers Greater Visibility into Battery Health and Life Cycle

• The Technology Also Offers Expanded VGI Benefits

• Battery Swapping Could Defer Transmission and Distribution Upgrades

• Battery Standardization Looms as a Major Hurdle

• Cost and Reliability Pose Significant Concerns

The Opportunities for Battery Swapping Are Best Where Vehicle Energy Needs Are Least

• Micromobility Providers Should Consider Battery-Swap Pilot Projects with Light EVs: E-scooters, Rickshaws, and Low Speed Vehicles

• Differentiation Represents an Opportunity for Highway-Capable Electrics

• Charging Service Companies Need to Decide How Battery Swapping Fits into Business Models

• Utilities Should Investigate Secondary Battery Markets

List of Charts and Figures

• Electric Two-Wheel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2019-2030
• NIO Battery-Swap Station at the 2019 Shanghai Auto Show
• BAIC Battery-Swap Demonstration at the 2018 Guangzhou Auto Show
• LED BEV Battery Pack Price Actual and Projections, World Markets: 2010-2030
• Example Skateboard Designs