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數位貨幣挖礦市場展望:公用事業及硬體供應商的未來設計

Utilities and Hardware Suppliers Should Plan for a Future Without Digital Currency Mining

出版商 Navigant Research 商品編碼 813703
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 22 Pages; 11 Tables, Charts & Figures
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數位貨幣挖礦市場展望:公用事業及硬體供應商的未來設計 Utilities and Hardware Suppliers Should Plan for a Future Without Digital Currency Mining
出版日期: 2019年03月26日內容資訊: 英文 22 Pages; 11 Tables, Charts & Figures
簡介

數位貨幣挖礦市場由於技術轉變和其他因素,很可能會在未來10年縮小。

本報告從多個成長情況檢視數位貨幣挖礦市場展望,彙整數位貨幣挖礦和POW (Proof of Work) 概要、因POW共識演算法的電力消耗增加、數位貨幣挖礦市場未來的不透明性和不確定性、公用事業和硬體供應商面對未來成長需做好的準備及對策等情報。

目錄

  • 建議
  • POW (Proof of Work):能源密集型共識演算法
    • 共識演算法和分散型網路
    • POW:需要節點投資電力以獲得報酬
      • 挖礦節點:交易驗證和分組區塊
      • 挖礦節點:爭取將區塊增加到分散式帳本上的權利
      • 網路:拒絕詐欺交易或竄改數據的區塊
    • 透過POW達成共識的重要性
  • 數位貨幣的高評價導致負載激增
    • 電力消耗增加和回饋迴路
  • 數位貨幣挖礦具非常規的負載特性
    • 電力成本和營運成本
    • 數位貨幣礦工和電力成本降低的誘因
    • 數位貨幣礦工:和傳統產業顧客相較而言是非穩定的
  • 數位貨幣挖礦:不確定的未來性
    • 數位貨幣挖礦市場可能萎縮
    • 電力消費成長的影響因素
      • 過去獎勵數位貨幣挖礦的規範:目前傾向撤銷
      • POW:已過時的技術
  • 公用事業:必須為各種未來情況做好準備
    • 公用事業:不該恐慌需冷靜因應
      • 硬體供應商:需探索新成長市場
      • 公用事業:不得投資新的數位貨幣挖礦基礎建設
      • 投資者和合作夥伴:需謹防漂綠(Greenwashing)
      • 數位貨幣礦工:需要備份計畫
      • 區塊鏈技術和數位貨幣:必須分開思考
目錄
Product Code: SI-POWR-19

Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a surge in valuation in 2017 and 2018. The extraordinary revenue potential associated with digitally mining these currencies led to the growth of a new and unprecedented industry with a prevailing incentive to minimize electricity costs. With surprising rapidity, digital currency miners built large data centers full of power-hungry devices solely focused on performing calculations specified by Bitcoin's proof of work consensus algorithm.

The new industry had a marked impact on a handful of utility systems, as large-scale operations were established in cool regions with low average electricity prices. High electricity demand strained existing infrastructure and exposed vulnerabilities in these systems. The rise and fall of the digital currency mining industry contains lessons for utilities, which must make resource allocation decisions on a longtime horizon, and hardware suppliers and manufacturers, which must recognize that the digital currency market is time-limited and likely unsustainable. According to Navigant Research, the market for digital currency mining is likely to decline over the next 10 years due to technological shifts and other factors.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the drivers of the digital currency market, including utility systems most heavily affected by its growth. The study forecasts five scenarios for the growth of the digital currency mining market from 2019 to 2028 in terms of potential revenue and electricity consumption. The report examines the key factors that make low or negative growth scenarios most probable and makes recommendations for both utilities and hardware suppliers.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What is digital currency mining, and what is proof of work?
  • What are the incentive structures and principles that led to rapid and unconventional load growth?
  • Why was the digital currency mining industry particularly challenging for utilities and regulators?
  • Will the digital currency mining market experience similar growth in the future?
  • What are the characteristics of utilities most heavily affected by digital currency mining?
  • What are the implications of digital currency mining for the wider energy blockchain industry?

Who Needs This Report:

  • Central processing unit (CPU) manufacturers
  • Graphical processing unit (GPU) manufacturers
  • Digital currency mining hardware manufacturers
  • Distribution utilities
  • Public utility commissions
  • Resource planners
  • Investor community

Table Of Contents

  • Spark
  • Context
  • Recommendations
  • Proof of Work Is an Energy-Intensive Consensus Algorithm
    • Consensus Algorithms Keep Decentralized Networks on the Same Page
    • Proof of Work Requires Nodes to Invest Power for a Chance at Reward
      • Mining Nodes Validate Transactions and Group Them Into Blocks
      • Mining Nodes Compete for the Right to Add Their Block to the Distributed Ledger
      • The Network Will Reject Blocks That Include Fraudulent Transactions or Manipulated Data
    • Why Solve Consensus with Proof of Work?
  • High Digital Currency Valuation Caused Rapid Load Growth
    • Increasing Electricity Consumption Creates a Feedback Loop
  • Digital Currency Mining Has Unconventional Load Characteristics
    • Electricity Costs Are a Disproportionately High Fraction of Operating Costs
    • Digital Currency Miners Have a Prevailing Incentive to Minimize Electricity Costs
    • Digital Currency Miners Are Highly Mobile Relative to Traditional Industrial Customers
  • Digital Currency Mining Has an Uncertain Future
    • The Market for Digital Currency Mining Is Likely to Shrink
    • A Range of Factors Influence Growth in Electricity Consumption
      • Regulations That Once Encouraged Digital Currency Mining Are Being Withdrawn
      • Proof of Work Is Already an Outdated Technology
  • Utilities Must Prepare for a Range of Future Scenarios
    • Utilities Should Not Panic
    • But They Must Be Prepared
      • Hardware Suppliers Must Look to New Markets for Growth
      • Utilities Must Not Invest in New Infrastructure to Support Digital Currency Mining
      • Investors and Partners Must Be Wary of Greenwashing
      • Digital Currency Miners Need a Backup Plan
      • Blockchain Technology and Digital Currencies Must Be Viewed Separately

List of Charts and Figures

  • Monthly Revenue Potential, Bitcoin Network: January 2015-December 2018
  • Online Computing Power and Proof of Work Difficulty, Bitcoin Network: January 2015-December 2018
  • Estimated Historical Electricity Consumption, Bitcoin Network: 2015-2018
  • The Antminer S-9, a Dedicated Digital Currency Mining Node
  • Regional Vulnerability to Digital Currency Mining, Europe
  • Regional Vulnerability to Digital Currency Mining, US
  • NordCoin Module with Integrated Digital Currency Mining Hardware and Cooling Systems
  • Dollar Value of Bitcoin by Growth Scenario, Bitcoin Network: 2019-2028
  • Revenue Potential Growth Scenarios, Bitcoin Network: 2019-2028
  • Bitcoin Mining Electricity Consumption Scenarios, Bitcoin Network: 2014-2028

List of Tables

  • Bitcoin Mining Block Reward Schedule: 2008-2024 (Approximate)
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