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市場調查報告書

電信網路運營商2020年第一季度市場回顧:收入同比下降超過2%

Telecommunications Network Operators - 1Q20 Market Review: Telcom Revenues Decline Over 2% on YoY Basis in 1Q20 as IMF Projects 5% GDP Dip in 2020

出版商 MTN Consulting, LLC 商品編碼 949215
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
訂單完成後即時交付
價格
電信網路運營商2020年第一季度市場回顧:收入同比下降超過2% Telecommunications Network Operators - 1Q20 Market Review: Telcom Revenues Decline Over 2% on YoY Basis in 1Q20 as IMF Projects 5% GDP Dip in 2020
出版日期: 2020年07月01日內容資訊: 英文
簡介

電信網路運營商的銷售額在2019年第四季度略有恢復,然後在2020年第一季度再次下降。第一季度銷售額為4460億美元(一年為18130億美元),比去年同期下降2.2%。由於債務問題增加,資本支出總額約為700億美元,下降了1.3%,運營商正在剝離資產以進行開放式網絡,雲合作夥伴關係和減少資本支出。對於運營商來說,短期的擔憂是全球經濟處於長期衰退中。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測,到2020年世界國內生產總值(GDP)將下降4.9%。 GDP下降近5%會對收入和資本支出產生巨大□□的負面影響,許多航空公司可能會裁員。此外,由於供應鏈的限制,與網絡相關的設備的生產和分配將被延遲,而5G和光纖網絡的建設將被延遲。

本報告對2020年第一季度全球電信行業進行了全面評估,跟蹤了138個電信網絡運營商(TNO)的收入,資本支出和員工人數,它還顯示了50家主要公司的人工成本,運營成本和運營利潤趨勢。

主要分析結果

  • 1) 2020年第一季度收入為4,463億美元,較2019年第一季度下降2.2%。零售業務關閉和供應鏈中斷導致手機銷售下降,以及由於全球旅行限製而導致的漫遊收入下降,是造成這種下降的一些因素。未來,儘管抵消了政府刺激措施和線上活動增加等影響,電話公司的收入將至少下降百分之幾。
  • 2)由於COVID情況的不確定性,2020年第一季度的全球資本支出同比下降約1.3%至702億美元。為了減少支出,電信公司將維護和容量升級的投資放在優先位置,而不是網路覆蓋範圍擴展項目。該行業的年度資本投資回報率為16.3%,低於去年的16.5%。
  • 3)從人均收入(RPE)來看,電信行業自2011年以來一直停滯不前,過去四個季度的年化價值為36.2萬美元。平均為$ 351,000。每名員工的人事成本每年從2019年第一季度的556,000美元增加到2020年第一季度的563,000美元。
  • 4)電信公司在2020年第一季度擁有510萬員工,比上一季度下降1.4%。在過去的幾年中,全球電話公司的員工人數一直相對穩定,部分原因是亞洲的增長,但是2020年的衰退可能會改變這一狀況。考慮到當前的大流行情況,隨著零售業裁員的增加以及消費者選擇線上購買,電信公司將需要關閉其實體店。預計裁員將在未來1-2年內發生。
  • 5)併購活動仍在繼續,許多電信公司看到其核心市場下降,並在精簡資產基礎的同時擴展到其他市場。 ..
  • 6)過去11個季度中,電信行業的營業利潤率一直保持穩定,平均約為13.7%。 2020年第一季度的營業利潤率從2019年第一季度的13.8%增加到14.5%。盈利能力的提高歸因於較低的運營成本,該成本在2020年第一季度比上一年下降了1.4%。

2020年COVID-19大流行的影響:手機和廣告收入下降,5G部署延遲

在COVID-19大流行的影響下,世界震驚了,許多行業都在感受到這種前所未有的局面的熱烈影響。世界各地的企業都面臨衰退,電信公司也不例外。在整個企業中都可以感受到大流行的影響。

電信部門面臨供應鏈風險,而5G智能手機和手機組件的產量下降將損害手機/設備收入。

由於大多數國家/地區的封鎖導致消費者支出減少,以及借出的移動計劃的違約率上升,也對創收產生負面影響。在企業方面,在有線業務中,由於公司支出減少和失業率上升,收入下降可能會加速。由於即將到來的體育賽事中斷,擁有大量媒體和廣告業務的運營商預計將損失收入。例如Telefonica,BT Altice,AT&T。

在歐洲國家,由於COVID-19大流行,未來幾個月很難舉行5G拍賣。法國已經推遲了拍賣。這直接影響運營商的短期銷售前景。展望未來,TNO可能會重新評估其資本支出預算並減少5G支出。

另一方面,日益增長的數據流量和對虛擬專用網(VPN)容量的需求也在增長。將來,運營商可能會將消費者領域的一些用戶轉移到更多高級套餐中,以利用數據流量的增長獲利。

內容

  • 1。摘要
  • 2。市場概況
  • 3。市場概況
  • 4。直到2020年第一季度的關鍵統計數據
  • 5。運算符排名
  • 6。每個公司的詳細分析
  • 7。按國家/地區分類
  • 8。按地區分類
  • 9。 TNO-138:138公司的利潤,資本投資,數量
  • 10。 TNO-50:成本和獲利能力指標
  • 11。併購,軟件,頻譜支出
  • 12。原始數據
  • 13。訂戶和流量
  • 14。匯率
  • 15。報告(包括調查方法)
目錄
Product Code: GNI-01072020-1

This market review provides a comprehensive assessment of the global telecommunications industry based on financial results through January 2020 (1Q20). The report tracks revenue, capex and employee for 138 individual telecommunications network operators (TNOs). For a sub-group of 50 large TNOs, the report also assesses labor cost, opex and operating profit trends. Our coverage timeframe spans 1Q11-1Q20 (37 quarters). The report's format is Excel.

After staging a mild recovery in 4Q19, the industry's top-line growth remained under pressure yet again in 1Q20. Single-quarter revenues declined YoY by 2.2 % in 1Q20, to $446B ($1,813B annualized). Total capex was about $70B in 1Q20, down 1.3% YoY as debt concerns grew, and operators became keen on open networking, cloud partnerships, and asset spinoffs to cut capex. Telco investments in 5G and media slowed.

In the near term, the bigger concern for telcos is the global economy slipping into a prolonged recession. On June 24, the International Monetary Fund updated its forecast for 2020, now projecting global gross domestic product (GDP) to sink 4.9% for the year, and noted that "the labor market has been severely hit and at record speed, and particularly so for lower-income and semi-skilled workers who do not have the option of teleworking." A 5% dip in GDP will hit both revenues and capex hard, and more telco layoffs are expected. Further, the manufacture and distribution of network gear will also be delayed, due to supply chain constraints, thus slowing 5G and fiber network builds in the short term.

Key findings from our 1Q20 analysis include:

  • 1) Telecom revenues in 1Q20 were $446.3B, dropping a bit faster than capex, down 2.2% from 1Q19. Decline in handset sales - due to closure of retail stores and supply chain disruption - and decrease in roaming revenues arising from global travel restrictions are a few factors for this declining revenue. Going forward, telco revenues will drop by several percentage points, at a minimum, even with offsetting effects such as government stimulus and an increase in online activity.
  • 2) Global capex declined by approximately 1.3% YoY to $70.2 billion in 1Q20, in line with the expectations, due to the uncertainty around the COVID situation. Telcos are prioritizing their investment on maintenance and capacity upgrades rather than network coverage expansion projects, to preserve cash. The industry's annualized capex to revenue ratio was 16.3% in 1Q20 compared to 16.5% a year ago.
  • 3) On a revenue per employee (RPE) basis, the telco sector has been stagnant since 2011: the annualized figure was $362K that year, and the average figure for the last four quarters was $351K. Labor costs per employee, on an annualized basis, increased from $55.6K in 1Q19 to $56.3K in 1Q20.
  • 4) Telcos employed 5.1M people in 1Q20, down 1.4% compared to its previous quarter. Global telco headcount has been relatively stable for several years, due in part to growth in Asia, but the 2020 recession could change this. Layoffs on the retail front are on the rise, with consumers opting for online purchases given the current pandemic situation thus forcing telcos to shut down their physical stores. We expect more layoffs to happen in the next 1-2 years. India alone may cut up to 100K employees in that timeframe, due to Jio's consolidation & BSNL reforms.
  • 5) The M&A climate remains strong for the sector in 2020. Many telcos see their core markets declining, and are buying their way into other markets while also streamlining their asset base. Noteworthy recent deals include the recent merger of T-Mobile and Sprint, America Movil's acquisition of Nextel in Brazil, Comcast's acquisition of Sky, the merger of Vodafone India and Idea Cellular; and Vodafone's $18B acquisition of Liberty Global's Germany and Eastern Europe cable and broadband assets. However, after the M&A deal paperwork is signed, integrating operations and actually achieving synergies continues to be a challenge for telcos. Managing the debt from these acquisitions is just as hard, as AT&T and others are discovering.
  • 6) Telco industry operating margins have been stable for the last 11 quarters, averaging around 13.7%, on an annualized basis. Single quarter operating margins increased in 1Q20, to 14.5% from 13.8% in 1Q19. The rise in margins is due to a fall in opex which declined by 1.4% in 1Q20 versus 1Q19.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: Lower handset and ad revenue, delayed 5G rollout

With the world reeling under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, most industries are feeling the heat of this unprecedented situation. Businesses worldwide are faced with a recessionary climate and telcos are no exception. The impact of the pandemic will likely be felt across their operations.

The telecom sector faces supply chain risks, and handset/device revenue will take a hit due to reduced production of 5G smartphones and handset components.

Lower consumer spending due to lockdown in most countries and a rise in defaults on financed handset plans will also hurt revenue generation. On the enterprise side, wireline operations could see revenue declines accelerate due to lower corporate spending and higher unemployment. Telcos with significant media and advertising segments will see revenue declines due to suspension of upcoming sporting events. Examples include Telefonica, BT Altice and AT&T.

In European countries, 5G auctions anytime in the next several months are next to impossible amid the COVID-19 pandemic; France has already postponed an auction. This will directly affect any near-term sales prospects for the telcos. Looking ahead, TNOs are likely to revisit their capex budgets and slash spending on 5G.

Amid all the bad news, the increase in data traffic and higher demand for virtual private network (VPN) capacity could offer some relief for the operators. Although not immediately, operators are likely to migrate some users in the consumer segment to more premium packages and make attempts to monetize the rise in data traffic.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  • 1. Abstract
  • 2. Market snapshot
  • 3. Market overview
  • 4. Key stats through 1Q20
  • 5. Operator rankings
  • 6. Single-company drilldowns
  • 7. Country breakouts
  • 8. Regional breakouts
  • 9. TNO-138: Revenue, capex and headcount for 138 TNOs
  • 10. TNO-50: Cost and profitability metrics
  • 11. M&A, software & spectrum spend
  • 12. Raw Data
  • 13. Subs & traffic
  • 14. Exchange rates
  • 15. About (including methodology)

FIGURES AND CHARTS

  • 1) TNOs: Annualized revenue ($M) and YoY growth (%), 1Q15-1Q20
  • 2) TNOs: Annualized capex ($M) and capital intensity (%), 1Q15-1Q20
  • 3) Labor cost/revenue (%), 2019
  • 4) Labor cost and labor cost per employee, 2019 YoY change (%)
  • 5) Change in annualized operating margins (YoY percentage point difference 1Q14-1Q20)
  • 6) Local currency value vs. US$ (QoQ change)
  • 7) Top 20 share of the market, 1Q20
  • 8) Top 20 TNOs by total capex, 1Q20
  • 9) Top 20 TNOs by total revenue, 1Q20
  • 10) TNOs: YoY growth in single quarter revenues
  • 11) TNOs: Annualized capital intensity, 1Q12-1Q20
  • 12) TNOs: Revenue and RPE, annualized 1Q15-1Q20
  • 13) TNOs: Capex and capital intensity (annualized), 1Q15-1Q20
  • 14) TNOs: Total headcount trends, 1Q15-1Q20
  • 15) TNOs: Revenue and RPE trends, 2011-19
  • 16) TNOs: Capex and capital intensity, 2011-19 ($ Mn)
  • 17) TNOs: Capex and capital intensity, 1Q15-1Q20 ($ Mn)
  • 18) TNOs: Revenue and RPE trends, 1Q15-1Q20
  • 19) Top 50 TNOs by total opex, 1Q20
  • 20) Top 50 TNOs by labor costs, 1Q20
  • 21) TNOs: Software as % of total capex
  • 22) TNOs: Software & spectrum spend
  • 23) TNOs: Total M&A, spectrum and capex (excl. spectrum)
  • 24) Top 50 TNOs by total debt: 2011-19
  • 25) Top 50 TNOs by total net debt: 2011-19
  • 26) Top 50 TNOs by long term debt: 2011-19
  • 27) Top 50 TNOs by short term debt: 2011-19
  • 28) Top 50 TNOs by total cash and short term investments ($M): 2011-19