Telecommunications Network Operators - 1Q20 Market Review: Telcom Revenues Decline Over 2% on YoY Basis in 1Q20 as IMF Projects 5% GDP Dip in 2020
|出版商||MTN Consulting, LLC||商品編碼||949215|
|電信網路運營商2020年第一季度市場回顧：收入同比下降超過2％ Telecommunications Network Operators - 1Q20 Market Review: Telcom Revenues Decline Over 2% on YoY Basis in 1Q20 as IMF Projects 5% GDP Dip in 2020|
|出版日期: 2020年07月01日||內容資訊: 英文||
This market review provides a comprehensive assessment of the global telecommunications industry based on financial results through January 2020 (1Q20). The report tracks revenue, capex and employee for 138 individual telecommunications network operators (TNOs). For a sub-group of 50 large TNOs, the report also assesses labor cost, opex and operating profit trends. Our coverage timeframe spans 1Q11-1Q20 (37 quarters). The report's format is Excel.
After staging a mild recovery in 4Q19, the industry's top-line growth remained under pressure yet again in 1Q20. Single-quarter revenues declined YoY by 2.2 % in 1Q20, to $446B ($1,813B annualized). Total capex was about $70B in 1Q20, down 1.3% YoY as debt concerns grew, and operators became keen on open networking, cloud partnerships, and asset spinoffs to cut capex. Telco investments in 5G and media slowed.
In the near term, the bigger concern for telcos is the global economy slipping into a prolonged recession. On June 24, the International Monetary Fund updated its forecast for 2020, now projecting global gross domestic product (GDP) to sink 4.9% for the year, and noted that "the labor market has been severely hit and at record speed, and particularly so for lower-income and semi-skilled workers who do not have the option of teleworking." A 5% dip in GDP will hit both revenues and capex hard, and more telco layoffs are expected. Further, the manufacture and distribution of network gear will also be delayed, due to supply chain constraints, thus slowing 5G and fiber network builds in the short term.
With the world reeling under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, most industries are feeling the heat of this unprecedented situation. Businesses worldwide are faced with a recessionary climate and telcos are no exception. The impact of the pandemic will likely be felt across their operations.
The telecom sector faces supply chain risks, and handset/device revenue will take a hit due to reduced production of 5G smartphones and handset components.
Lower consumer spending due to lockdown in most countries and a rise in defaults on financed handset plans will also hurt revenue generation. On the enterprise side, wireline operations could see revenue declines accelerate due to lower corporate spending and higher unemployment. Telcos with significant media and advertising segments will see revenue declines due to suspension of upcoming sporting events. Examples include Telefonica, BT Altice and AT&T.
In European countries, 5G auctions anytime in the next several months are next to impossible amid the COVID-19 pandemic; France has already postponed an auction. This will directly affect any near-term sales prospects for the telcos. Looking ahead, TNOs are likely to revisit their capex budgets and slash spending on 5G.
Amid all the bad news, the increase in data traffic and higher demand for virtual private network (VPN) capacity could offer some relief for the operators. Although not immediately, operators are likely to migrate some users in the consumer segment to more premium packages and make attempts to monetize the rise in data traffic.