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關於網路規模資本支出的說明(2020年第1季度):COVID-19推動線上經濟發展,使網路規模快速增長,資本支出在2020年第1季度同比增長20%為中國WNO削減緊急問題

Commentary - Webscale Capex in 1Q20: COVID-19 Pushes More of Economy Online, Giving Webscale Opening to Faster Growth, Capex up 25% YoY in 1Q20, Chips a Looming Issue for Chinese WNOs

出版商 MTN Consulting, LLC 商品編碼 949213
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 8 Pages
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關於網路規模資本支出的說明(2020年第1季度):COVID-19推動線上經濟發展,使網路規模快速增長,資本支出在2020年第1季度同比增長20%為中國WNO削減緊急問題 Commentary - Webscale Capex in 1Q20: COVID-19 Pushes More of Economy Online, Giving Webscale Opening to Faster Growth, Capex up 25% YoY in 1Q20, Chips a Looming Issue for Chinese WNOs
出版日期: 2020年06月25日內容資訊: 英文 8 Pages
簡介

儘管電信行業在2020年第一季度(20年第一季度)難以實現增長,但Web規模網絡運營商(WNO)部門已利用其強大的資產負債表和敏捷的運營模式。因此,自2019年第一季度以來,我們的資本支出(資本支出)同比增長25%(同比)。這種激增是在2019年下降8%之後。網絡規模的研發(R&D)成本也同比增長了15%,略低於2019年社交距離成為標準之前的水平。多年來,Microsoft,Alphabet和Apple等網絡規模的運營商一直在產生令人難以置信的高自由現金流率,以防萬一,他們增加了現金儲備。

在本報告中,我們正在調查網絡規模的資本支出(capex),並提供諸如COVID-19的影響,增長前景,未來趨勢以及主要公司的概況之類的信息。

上市公司

  • Alibaba/AliCloud
  • Baidu
  • IBM
  • Nokia
  • Tencent
  • Alphabet/GCP
  • Broadcom
  • IMF
  • Nvidia
  • TSMC
  • Amazon/AWS
  • ByteDance
  • Intel
  • Oracle
  • U.S. Commerce Department
  • AMDHuawei
  • Cumulus Networks
  • JD.COM
  • Quanta Computer
  • Verizon
  • Ampere
  • Facebook
  • Mellanox
  • Samsung
  • Wiwynn
  • Apple
  • HPE
  • Microsoft/Azure
  • SMIC
  • Zoom

內容

  • 摘要
  • 2020年第一季度的資本投資增長25%,目標是更多的服務器,而不是更多的配置
  • 某些網路規模的運營商的研發費用可能會使資本投資不明顯
  • 芯片級差異在Web級部門中變得越來越重要
  • 美國實體名單可能會滲透到中國的網路規模領域
  • 預測:儘管經濟衰退,2020年的資本投資將增長8-15%
  • 附錄
目錄
Product Code: GNI-26062020-1

While the telco sector struggled to achieve any growth at all in the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20), the webscale network operator (WNO) sector leveraged its strong balance sheet and nimble operational model to grow capital expenditures (capex) by 25% year-over-year (YoY) from 1Q19. This surge followed an 8% decline in 2019. Webscale research and development (R&D) expenses also rose, by 15% YoY, just a bit less than the rate in 2019, before social distancing became the norm. For years, webscale operators like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple have been generating free cash flow at incredibly high rates, and adding to their cash stockpile just in case a rainy day ever came.

COVID-19 is far more than a rainy day: on June 24, the International Monetary Fund updated its forecast for 2020 , now projecting global gross domestic product (GDP) to sink 4.9% for the year, and noted that "the labor market has been severely hit and at record speed, and particularly so for lower-income and semi-skilled workers who do not have the option of teleworking." With 1Q20 webscale revenue growth of 11% YoY, roughly the same as in CY2019, so far the sector has been successful in using the crisis to coerce more offline businesses to go online; making working, studying and playing from home acceptable alternatives to the old ways; and accelerating its customers' digital transformation journeys. Webscale operators like Alibaba are persuading more users that their value add is not "just about shifting traffic onto the cloud to save costs," but about leveraging "big data and cloud enabled computing capacity to achieve better efficiencies and drive value for the business."

Coverage:

Organizations mentioned in this report include:

  • Alibaba/AliCloud
  • Baidu
  • IBM
  • Nokia
  • Tencent
  • Alphabet/GCP
  • Broadcom
  • IMF
  • Nvidia
  • TSMC
  • Amazon/AWS
  • ByteDance
  • Intel
  • Oracle
  • U.S. Commerce Department
  • AMDHuawei
  • Cumulus Networks
  • JD.COM
  • Quanta Computer
  • Verizon
  • Ampere
  • Facebook
  • Mellanox
  • Samsung
  • Wiwynn
  • Apple
  • HPE
  • Microsoft/Azure
  • SMIC
  • Zoom

Table of Contents

  • Summary (p2)
  • Capex growth of 25% in 1Q20 targeted more servers, not more construction (p2)
  • R&D spending can overshadow capex for some webscale operators (p4)
  • Chip-level differentiation increasingly important in the webscale sector (p5)
  • U.S. Entity List may trickle down to China webscale sector (p6)
  • What to expect: CY2020 capex growth of 8-15% despite recession (p7)
  • Appendix (p7)

Figures

  • Figure 1: Webscale network operator capex for key companies, 1Q19 v. 1Q20 ($B)
  • Figure 2: Webscale capex by company, 1Q20 growth and 2020 outlook
  • Figure 3: Webscale network operator R&D vs. capex spend in 1Q20 ($B)
  • Figure 4: Alibaba's data center footprint