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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1025844

全球網絡商資本投資趨勢——2025年5910億美元:數據中心投資增加(網絡規模/運營商中性)和提高電信運營商資本投資基數,資本投資放緩 增長前景

Network Operator Capex to Hit $591B in 2025: Capex Outlook Up Slightly Due to Increased Data Center Spending (Webscale & Carrier-neutral), and Increase in Telco Capex Baseline

出版日期: | 出版商: MTN Consulting, LLC | 英文 11 Pages | 訂單完成後即時交付

價格
  • 全貌
  • 簡介
  • 目錄
簡介

自上次分析時(2020 年 12 月)以來,全球網絡運營商的資本投資趨勢沒有發生顯著變化,各個行業都在穩步增長,但也有一些變化。

此前的預測是,總資本投資將從2020年的4250億美元增加到2025年的5200億美元。該預測從更高的基線開始,2020 年為 4570 億美元,2025 年為 5910 億美元。網絡規模資本投資的重要性略有增長,佔 2025 年資本投資的 42%(之前預測為 39%)。

本報告分析了全球網絡運營商的資本投資趨勢(截至 2021 年 8 月),並將其與之前的預測結果(2020 年 12 月)進行比較,以顯示市場的定性趨勢。我們也在調查和估算市場規模細分通信公司、網絡規模公司和運營商中立公司的資本支出趨勢和預測(2011-2025)。

來自圖表中的文字

範圍

本次預測報告涵蓋了網絡運營商的三大板塊,共計約200家運營商。

本報告中列出的具體公司和組織如下。

  • Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • Deutsche Telekom (DT)
  • Facebook
  • Indosat
  • Microsoft
  • Ooredoo
  • Optus
  • Orange
  • PCCW
  • PLDT
  • Singtel
  • Telefonica
  • Telstra
  • Vodafone

目錄

第 1 章大綱

電信公司第 2 章市場預測

第 3 章 Webs 規模市場預測

第 4 章運營商中性市場預測

第5章附錄1:附加圖表

第6章附錄2:關於MTN Consulting

目錄
Product Code: GNI-20082021-1

Summary:

This commentary explains the network spending forecast update issued in August 2021, comparing it to the forecast published in December 2020 ("Network operator capex to hit $520B in 2025"). This forecast revision is modest: market dynamics are largely as we predicted in December 2020, and most projections are on track. However, some changes have occurred.

  • Webscale continues to grow rapidly and record high profits. Webscalers are getting a boost from the lingering of COVID-19, with work and study from home becoming a long-term reality in many markets. Key cloud players are boosting capex outlook due to data center expansion, and also spending more rapidly on non-tech avenues like logistics and fulfillment.
  • There is strong private equity interest in the carrier-neutral sector, with a focus on data centers. We discuss this in our July 2021 report, "Tomorrow's carrier-neutral operators to integrate tower, fiber and data center assets." The increased PE interest in carrier-neutral models is enticing more telco asset spinoffs, including at Telefonica, Telstra, Singtel, PCCW, Indosat Ooredoo, PLDT, and Optus (some deals still under discussion).
  • MTN Consulting has significantly expanded its coverage of software capex in the telco sector. Over the last 8 months, we have increased our sample size from 24 telcos to 63, and recalculated capex historically for all these providers. The result is twofold: one, a change in historic telco capex estimates (down for 2011-15, up for 2016-19); two, an improved estimate of software's share of total capex in the telco sector. The trend in this metric is still positive, but at a more moderate clip.
  • MTN Consulting has tweaked the Network/IT vs. All other capex splits for most key webscalers. The result is to decrease the Network/IT percentage of total. Both Network/IT and All other capex projections are up in this new forecast, but All other's 2025 total is up by 35% while Network/IT is up by a more modest 15%. As webscalers use their cash and brands to expand, the tech spend piece gets a bit smaller as a share of total.

The 12/20 forecast called for total capex to climb from $425B in 2020 to $520B in 2025. The new forecast starts from a higher baseline, $457B in 2020, and grows to $591B in 2025. Webscale capex is slightly more important, accounting for 42% of 2025 capex from 39% in 2025 under the last forecast.

This product contains two files: a qualitative analytic report, and a detailed Excel file containing market size and spending estimates from 2011 through 2025 for the telecommunications, webscale, and carrier-neutral network operator segments.

VISUALS

Coverage:

This forecast report addresses three large segments of network operators, covering nearly 200 operators in total.

Specific companies or organizations mentioned in the report are as follows:

  • Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • Deutsche Telekom (DT)
  • Facebook
  • Indosat
  • Microsoft
  • Ooredoo
  • Optus
  • Orange
  • PCCW
  • PLDT
  • Singtel
  • Telefonica
  • Telstra
  • Vodafone

Table of Contents

1. Summary

2. Telco Market Forecast

3. Webscale Market Forecast

4. Carrier-neutral Market Forecast

5. Appendix 1: Additional Charts

6. Appendix 2: About MTN Consulting

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Capex by segment changes, 8/21 v. 12/20 forecast (US$B)
  • Figure 2: Telco capex by region and change from 12/20 forecast
  • Figure 3: Telco employees and average cost per employee ($K) through 2025
  • Figure 4: Software as % of total capex, telcos (August 2021 update)
  • Figure 5: Webscale capex by type: % change in forecast, 8/21 v. 12/20
  • Figure 6: New CNNO forecast compared to the 12/20 forecast
  • Figure A1: Capex by operator type ($B), August 2021 update
  • Figure A2: Capital intensity by operator type, 8/21 estimates
  • Figure A3: Webscale capex by type, 8/21 forecast update ($B)
  • Figure A4: CNNO data center footprint, net rentable square feet (M)