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市場調查報告書
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1190982

燃料電池商用車市場——增長、趨勢、COVID-19 的影響和預測 (2023-2028)

Fuel Cell Commercial Vehicle Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 100 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

燃料電池商用車市場預計將在 2021 年增長到 20 億美元,到 2027 年增長到 140 億美元,在預測期間(2022-2027 年)的複合年增長率超過 40%。。

COVID-19 大流行對全球汽車行業產生了負面影響。 但由於該技術及其使用處於初級階段,其影響相對較小。 然而,大多數替代燃料商用車(公共汽車)在全球範圍內用於公共交通,並且受到限制和社會疏遠規範的嚴重經濟打擊。

推動市場增長的主要因素包括嚴格排放法規的頒布、城市地區公共交通的增加、替代燃料汽車需求的增加以及政府的持續支持。 然而,與製氫相關的環境問題可能會阻礙市場增長。

主導市場的主要參與者是豐田汽車公司、New Flyer America 和 Wrightbus。 燃料電池公交車在美國已投入商業使用。 2019 年 2 月,巴拉德動力系統公司宣布推出由巴拉德 FCveloCity-HD 85 千瓦 (kW) 模塊提供動力的 40 英尺和 60 英尺 Xcelsior 燃料電池電動客車 (FCEB)。 根據聯邦運輸管理局 (FTA) 計劃,在阿爾圖納巴士研究和測試中心進行了嚴格測試。

主要市場趨勢

制定嚴格的商用車排放法規

隨著環境問題的日益嚴重,政府和環保機構正在製定嚴格的排放法規和立法,預計這將在未來幾年推高生產節能柴油發動機的成本。

因此,預計短期內新型商用車柴油機細分市場增速將放緩,燃料電池商用車需求有望增加。 大多數柴油發動機能夠轉換大約 40% 到 46% 的燃料能量,剩餘的能量通過廢氣和冷卻系統以熱量的形式釋放到環境中。 大型發動機排放法規“歐六”已經生效,商用車製造商的負擔越來越重。

此外,2000 年 12 月,美國環境保護署簽署了從 2007 年款開始的重型公路發動機排放標準的法律。 加州空氣資源委員會 (CARB) 於 2001 年 10 月採用了幾乎相同的 2007 重型發動機標準。 該法規由兩部分組成:排放法規和柴油燃料法規。

*排放法規包括對 PM (0.01g/hp*hr) 和 NOx (0.20g/hp*hr) 的新嚴格限制。

在北美,環境保護署 (EPA) 和國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 聯合製定了重型和中型車輛的溫室氣體排放和燃油效率標準。

*NHTSA 根據 2007 年《能源獨立與安全法》(EISA) 制定燃油經濟性標準,EPA 根據《清潔空氣法》制定溫室氣體排放計劃。

*GHG 計劃包括 CO2 排放標準、N2O 和 CH4 排放標準,以及控制空調系統氫氟碳化物洩漏的規定。

在美國,到 2027 年,重型車輛(例如聯合牽引車/拖車、商用車、重型皮卡和廂式貨車)的二氧化碳排放量必須在 2017 年基準的基礎上最多減少 27%。不是。

亞太地區有望引領市場

由於中國、印度、印度尼西亞和泰國等主要國家/地區的汽車行業規模龐大,預計亞太地區將引領市場。 該地區還擁有燃料電池汽車技術的主要製造商。 豐田正在進行廣泛的研發,以在預測期內開發氫燃料電池汽車。

此外,在燃料電池汽車投資方面也有一些新的發展,預計將進一步推動該地區對燃料電池商用車的需求。 幾個主要城市和國家已經宣布了減少商用車排放的目標,還計劃在該領域使用氫技術和投資。

日本政府押注氫能汽車到 2050 年實現碳中和。 在第三次氫和燃料電池戰略路線圖中,日本政府制定了到 2025 年安裝 200,000 輛 FCV(2019 年約為 3,600 輛)和 320 個加氫站的宏偉目標。

日本的豐田汽車公司和本田汽車公司是商業乘用氫車型的先驅。 但韓國競爭對手現代汽車也加入了競爭,受政府計劃到 2040 年建造 620 萬輛 FCV 並至少建造 1,200 個加油站的推動。

競爭格局

與電動汽車和內燃機市場相比,燃料電池商用車市場在全球範圍內相對較新。 該市場由不同產能和規模的製造商主導,包括斯堪尼亞和豐田等主要汽車製造商,以及尼古拉汽車等該細分市場的新參與者。

其他好處

  • Excel 格式的市場預測 (ME) 表
  • 三個月的分析師支持

內容

第一章介紹

  • 調查先決條件
  • 調查範圍

第二章研究方法論

第 3 章執行摘要

第四章市場動態

  • 市場驅動力
  • 市場製約因素
  • 產業吸引力 - 波特五力分析
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 買方/消費者議價能力
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭公司之間的敵對關係

第 5 章市場細分

  • 車輛類型
    • 跟蹤
    • 巴士
  • 按輸出範圍
    • 小於 100 千瓦
    • 100kW~200kW
    • 200kW 或更多
  • 各地區構成比
    • 北美
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 其他北美地區
    • 歐洲
      • 德國
      • 英國
      • 法國
      • 西班牙
      • 其他歐洲地區
    • 亞太地區
      • 中國
      • 日本
      • 印度
      • 韓國
      • 其他亞太地區
    • 世界其他地方
      • 南美洲
      • 中東和非洲

第六章競爭格局

  • 供應商市場份額
  • 公司簡介
    • Paccar
    • New Flyer America
    • Nikola Motor Co.
    • Hyundai Motor
    • Scania
    • Foton Motor Group(Foton)
    • Zhejiang Geely Holding Group
    • Toyota Motor Company
    • Honda Motor Company Ltd.
    • Mercedes Benz Group

第7章 市場機會今後動向

簡介目錄
Product Code: 57238

The fuel cell commercial vehicle market was valued at USD 2 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow to USD 14 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of over 40% during the forecast period (2022 - 2027).

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected the global automotive industry. However, the impact was relatively low due to the beginning stages of the technology and its usage. However, most alternative fuel commercial vehicles (buses) were used in public transport worldwide, which took a huge blow in monetary terms due to the lockdown and social distancing norms.

Some of the major factors driving the market's growth are the enactment of stringent emission norms, growing mass urban transportation, rising demand for alternate fuel vehicles, and continuous government support. However, environmental concerns related to hydrogen production may hinder the market's growth.

Some key players dominating the market studied are Toyota Motor Corp., New Flyer America, and Wrightbus. Fuel cell buses are commercially being used in United States. In February 2019, Ballard Power Systems announced the launch of 40-foot and 60-foot Xcelsior fuel cell-electric buses (FCEBs), powered by Ballard FCveloCity-HD 85 kilowatt (kW) modules. They completed rigorous testing at the Altoona Bus Research and Testing Center under the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) program.

Key Market Trends

Enactment of Stringent Emission Norms for Commercial Vehicles

With the growing environmental concerns, governments and environmental agencies are enacting stringent emission norms and laws, which are expected to increase the manufacturing cost of fuel-efficient diesel engines in the coming years.

As a result, the new commercial vehicle diesel engines segment is expected to register a sluggish growth rate in the short term, thereby increasing the demand for fuel cell commercial vehicles. Most diesel engines can convert about 40%-46% of the fuel energy, while the remaining energy is lost in the environment as heat through exhaust emissions and cooling systems. The burden on commercial vehicle manufacturers has increased with the enactment of the Euro VI emission for heavy-duty engines.

Additionally, in December 2000, the US EPA signed emission standards for the model year 2007 and later heavy-duty highway engines. The California Air Resource Board (CARB) adopted virtually identical 2007 heavy-duty engine standards in October 2001. The rule included two components: emission standards and diesel fuel regulations.

* The emission standards included new and stringent limits for PM (0.01 g/bhp*hr) and NOx (0.20 g/bhp*hr).

In North America, the US GHG emissions and fuel efficiency standards for heavy- and medium-duty vehicles were jointly developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

* The NHTSA developed fuel consumption standards under the authority of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), while the EPA developed a GHG emissions program under the Clean Air Act.

* The GHG program includes CO2 emission standards, emission standards for N2O and CH4, and provisions to control hydrofluorocarbon leaks from air conditioning systems.

In United States, heavy-duty vehicles, such as combination tractors/trailers, vocational vehicles, heavy-duty pickup trucks, and vans, must achieve up to 27% CO2 emission reductions over the 2017 baselines by 2027.

Asia Pacific is Expected to Lead the Market

Asia-Pacific is expected to lead the market owing to the immense automotive industry size in major countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand. The region is also home to major manufacturers of fuel cell vehicle technology. Toyota is conducting extensive R&D to develop hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles during the forecast period.

Additionally, several new developments in the way of investments into fuel cell-powered vehicles are further expected to increase the demand for fuel cell commercial vehicles in the region. Several major cities and countries have released their goals to reduce commercial vehicle emissions, with plans for hydrogen technology and investments in this sector.

The Japanese government is banking on hydrogen vehicles to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It has set an ambitious target of having 200,000 FCVs on the road by 2025, compared to about 3,600 in 2019, along with 320 hydrogen filling stations under its third Strategic Roadmap for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells.

Japan-based Toyota and Honda Motor Co. Ltd have been the pioneers in commercial passenger hydrogen models. However, South Korean rival Hyundai Motor Co. also entered the fray, encouraged by its government's plans to produce 6.2 million FCVs and build at least 1,200 refilling stations by 2040.

Competitive Landscape

The fuel cell commercial vehicle market is fairly new compared to the electric and IC engine counterpart markets in the industry on a global scale. The market is occupied by manufacturers of different capabilities and sizes, including major automakers like Scania, Toyota, etc., and relatively new to this market segment, including companies like Nikola Motors. Due to the early stages of development and production of this technology in vehicles, the market is concentrated and occupied by legacy manufacturers and new entrants, offering excellent products in the category.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

  • 4.1 Market Drivers
  • 4.2 Market Restraints
  • 4.3 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.3.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.3.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.3.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.3.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.3.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION

  • 5.1 By Vehicle Type
    • 5.1.1 Trucks
    • 5.1.2 Buses
  • 5.2 By Power Range
    • 5.2.1 Below 100 kW
    • 5.2.2 100 kW - 200 kW
    • 5.2.3 Above 200 kW
  • 5.3 By Geography
    • 5.3.1 North America
      • 5.3.1.1 United States
      • 5.3.1.2 Canada
      • 5.3.1.3 Rest of North America
    • 5.3.2 Europe
      • 5.3.2.1 Germany
      • 5.3.2.2 United Kingdom
      • 5.3.2.3 France
      • 5.3.2.4 Spain
      • 5.3.2.5 Rest of Europe
    • 5.3.3 Asia-Pacific
      • 5.3.3.1 China
      • 5.3.3.2 Japan
      • 5.3.3.3 India
      • 5.3.3.4 South Korea
      • 5.3.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.4 Rest of the World
      • 5.3.4.1 South America
      • 5.3.4.2 Middle-East and Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Vendor Market Share
  • 6.2 Company Profiles*
    • 6.2.1 Paccar
    • 6.2.2 New Flyer America
    • 6.2.3 Nikola Motor Co.
    • 6.2.4 Hyundai Motor
    • 6.2.5 Scania
    • 6.2.6 Foton Motor Group (Foton)
    • 6.2.7 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group
    • 6.2.8 Toyota Motor Company
    • 6.2.9 Honda Motor Company Ltd.
    • 6.2.10 Mercedes Benz Group

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS