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1197581

甲醇市場 - 增長、趨勢、COVID-19 影響和預測 (2023-2028)

Methanol Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2023 - 2028)

出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 180 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

到今年年底,甲醇市場估計將超過 92,700 千噸。

預計在預測期內復合年增長率將保持在 3.5% 以上。

由於政府在 2020 年和 2021 年上半年實施禁令和限制,COVID-19 大流行嚴重限制了工業活動,限制了甲醇市場的增長。 化學工業因原材料供應短缺、工作時間/財務限制、需求下降和財務限製而陷入癱瘓。 不過,自2021年年中疫情消退後,化工石化行業步入復甦軌道。 終端用戶部門對化學品需求的快速增長繼續施加壓力,預計將促進甲醇市場的增長。

主要亮點

  • 從中期來看,中國、美國和其他亞太國家/地區石化行業的擴張以及對甲醇燃料的需求增加是該市場增長的主要驅動力。 此外,在使用 MTO 的烯烴生產中越來越多地使用甲醇正在推動化學工業的增長。
  • 另一方面,相對於甲醇,乙醇燃料和生物乙醇的偏好以及相關的健康危害預計將在預測期內限制目標行業的增長。
  • 但是,甲醇在新的和擴展的燃料應用中的使用以及該行業對可再生甲醇的日益傾向可能會在不久的將來為市場帶來有利可圖的增長機會。
  • 亞太地區已成為最大的甲醇市場。 預計在預測期內將保持最高複合年增長率。 亞太地區的主導地位是由於中國、日本和其他東南亞國家對甲醇的高需求,以及化工和其他應用領域的擴大。

甲醇市場趨勢

能源相關應用主導市場

  • 在過去幾年中,能源相關應用中甲醇的使用量顯著增加。 甲醇廣泛用於甲醇制烯烴(MTO)轉化反應,為從煤和天然氣等非石油資源中生產基礎石化產品(乙烯、丙烯、丁烯、丁二烯等)提供了機會。。
  • 甲醇是甲基叔丁基醚 (MTBE) 的前體,添加到汽油中可增加氧氣濃度並提高辛烷值。 由於MTBE完全燃燒汽油,因此減少了汽車排放的一氧化碳和尾氣等有害氣體,從而抑制了空氣污染。
  • 甲醇已成功用於增加全球許多汽油市場的汽油供應。 在汽油供應中添加甲醇可以提供非石油替代品和清潔、高度可燃的高辛烷值燃料。 根據甲醇研究所的說法,與其他酒精不同,將甲醇混合到汽油中是經濟的,沒有政府補貼或燃料混合要求。
  • 甲醇還用於生產二甲醚,由於其高可燃性和高十六烷值,甲醇作為替代燃料發揮著重要作用。 二甲醚在柴油發動機中的燃燒非常乾淨,無菸灰。 DME 可用於柴油發動機,作為傳統柴油燃料的替代品。
  • 甲醇是生產生物柴油的重要起始原料,作為一種可替代原油衍生柴油的可再生燃料而備受關注。 甲醇比乙醇更適合用於酯交換反應,因為它與甘油三酯的反應性很強,並且易溶於鹼。
  • 生物柴油是一種清潔燃燒的燃料,可以提高能源安全並減少碳排放。 此外,它的閃點高(至少100°C),可與輕油以任意比例混合,為汽車供油時可將兩種燃料混合使用。 多年來,除了 2020 年大流行期間外,生物柴油的環保性能刺激了生物柴油產量的上升趨勢。 根據 BP 世界能源統計評論,2022 年,生物柴油產量在 2020 年略有下降後將在 2021 年反彈,達到每天 734,000 桶(高於大流行前水平)。 在預測期內,產量的增加趨勢預計將增加甲醇消費在生物柴油生產中的份額。
  • 鑑於上述因素,預計在預測期內,能源相關應用中對甲醇的使用和需求將會擴大。

亞太地區主導市場

  • 亞太地區以巨大的市場份額主導著全球市場。 預計它將在預測期內保持其主導地位。 僅中國就生產和消費了全球60%以上的甲醇,居世界首位。 在中國河南省安陽市,一座“最先進”的二氧化碳甲醇化工廠已開始生產,這將是世界上第一個商業規模的從捕獲的二氧化碳和氫氣中生產甲醇的設施。
  • 根據甲醇研究所的數據,中國有 700 萬輛汽車使用甲醇,佔中國燃料總量的 5% 以上。 甲醇排放的二氧化碳比傳統汽油車少 26%,即使是採用煤基發電方式也是如此。 中國工信部已公佈“擴大甲醇汽車推廣”計劃,正在研究“綠色甲醇+甲醇汽車”的概念。
  • 在印度,NITI Aaayog 制定了一項戰略,到 2030 年僅用甲醇替代 10% 的原油進口。 這需要大約 30MT 的甲醇。 甲醇和二甲醚比汽油和柴油便宜得多,印度預計到 2030 年將燃料成本降低 30%。
  • 日本有川崎重工、雅馬哈、豐田、本田、日產和鈴木等主要汽車製造商,它們都計劃開發甲醇燃料汽車。 日本國家能源戰略旨在到 2030 年將汽油依賴性從 50% 降低到 40%,將能源效率提高 30%,並用甲醇等替代燃料替代 20% 的運輸燃料,市場研究的需求正在增加。
  • 新加坡是最新加入建立全球基礎設施以生產和分銷作為船用燃料的甲醇的國家/地區。 新加坡已被公認為世界上最大的航運加油中心,得益於航運和燃料行業之間的合作,新加坡將成為東南亞首個綠色電子甲醇設施。
  • 上述所有因素預計將在預測期內推動亞太地區甲醇市場的增長。

甲醇市場競爭對手分析

甲醇市場是分散的,頂級公司沒有單獨擁有足夠的市場份額來影響市場需求。 市場上的主要參與者(排名不分先後)包括 SABIC、Proman、寧夏寶豐能源集團、Methanex Corporation 和 ZPCIR。

其他好處

  • Excel 格式的市場預測 (ME) 表
  • 三個月的分析師支持

內容

第1章介紹

  • 調查先決條件
  • 調查範圍

第2章研究方法論

第 3 章執行摘要

第4章市場動態

  • 司機
    • 在中國、美國和其他亞太國家/地區擴大石化行業
    • 對甲醇燃料的需求增加
    • 在使用 MTO 的烯烴生產中增加甲醇的使用
  • 約束因素
    • 使用比甲醇更多的乙醇燃料和生物乙醇
    • 對健康的有害影響
  • 工業價值鏈分析
  • 波特的五力分析
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 買家的議價能力
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭程度
  • 世界主要原料甲醇產能
  • 技術快照
  • 貿易分析
  • 價格趨勢

第 5 章市場細分(市場規模:基於數量)

  • 通過使用
    • 常規化學品
      • 甲醛
      • 醋酸
      • 溶劑
      • 甲胺
      • 其他傳統化學品
    • 能源相關
      • 甲醇-烯烴 (MTO)
      • 甲基叔丁基醚 (MTBE)
      • 混合汽油
      • 二甲醚 (DME)
      • 生物柴油
  • 區域信息
    • 亞太地區
      • 中國
      • 印度
      • 日本
      • 韓國
      • 其他亞太地區
    • 北美
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 墨西哥
    • 歐洲
      • 德國
      • 英國
      • 意大利
      • 法國
      • 其他歐洲
    • 南美洲
      • 巴西
      • 阿根廷
      • 其他南美洲
    • 中東
      • 沙特阿拉伯
      • 南非
      • 其他中東地區

第6章競爭格局

  • 併購、合資企業、聯盟、合同
  • 市場份額 (%) 分析
  • 主要參與者採用的策略
  • 公司簡介
    • Atlantic Methanol
    • BASF SE
    • Celanese Corporation
    • Coogee
    • Enerkem
    • Eni SPA
    • Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited(GSFC)
    • Ineos
    • Kingboard Holdings Limited
    • Lyondellbasell Industries Holdings BV
    • Methanex Corporation
    • Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc.
    • Mitsui & Co. Ltd
    • Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co. Ltd
    • OCI NV
    • Petroliam Nasional Berhad
    • Proman
    • Sabic
    • ZPCIR

第7章市場機會與未來趨勢

  • 在新的和擴展的燃料應用中使用甲醇
  • 可再生甲醇的增長趨勢
簡介目錄
Product Code: 50934

The methanol market is estimated to reach over 92,700 kilo tons by the end of the current year. It is projected to register a CAGR of over 3.5% during the forecast period.

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically curtailed industrial activities due to imposed government bans and restrictions in 2020 and the first half of 2021, limiting the growth of the methanol market. The chemical industry was paralyzed due to scarce raw material supply, limited working hours/labor strength, reduced demand, and constrained financials. However, the chemical and petrochemical industries have been on track for recovery since the retraction of the pandemic in mid-2021. The exponential rise in demand for chemicals in end-user sectors continues to exert pressure, which is expected to contribute to the growth of the methanol market.

Key Highlights

  • Over the medium term, the expanding petrochemical sector in China, the United States, and other Asia-Pacific countries and the rising demand for methanol-based fuels are the major driving factors augmenting the growth of the market studied. Furthermore, the growing utilization of methanol in producing olefins using MTO propels increased offtakes in the chemical industries.
  • On the other side, the higher preference for ethanol fuel or bioethanol over methanol and the health hazardous impacts associated with it are anticipated to restrain the growth of the target industry over the forecast period.
  • Nevertheless, the use of methanol in new and expanding fuel applications and the growing industrial inclination toward renewable methanol are likely to create lucrative growth opportunities for the market soon.
  • The Asia-Pacific emerged as the largest market for methanol. It is expected to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The dominance of the Asia-Pacific is attributed to the high demand for methanol in China, Japan, and other Southeast Asian countries, expanding chemical and other application sectors.

Methanol Market Trends

Energy-related Applications to Dominate the Market

  • The use of methanol in energy-related applications increased significantly in the past few years. Methanol is widely used in methanol-to-olefins (MTO) transformation reactions, which provides a chance to produce basic petrochemicals (such as ethene, propene, butene, and butadiene) from non-oil resources like coal and natural gas.
  • Methanol is a precursor for producing methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), which is added to gasoline to enhance the octane number by increasing the oxygen content. MTBE leads to the complete combustion of gasoline and, thus, lowers the exhaust of harmful gases, like carbon monoxide, and other emissions from vehicles, reducing air pollution.
  • Methanol has been successfully used to extend gasoline supplies in many gasoline markets worldwide. Adding methanol to the gasoline supply provides non-petroleum alternative energy and a clean-burning, high-octane fuel. According to the Methanol Institute, unlike other alcohols, methanol blending in gasoline has been economical without government subsidies or fuel-blending mandates.
  • Methanol is also used to produce dimethyl ether, which registers significant usage as a fuel substitute, due to its good ignition quality and high cetane number. DME in diesel engines burns very cleanly with no soot. It can be used in diesel engines as a substitute for conventional diesel fuel.
  • Methanol is a crucial starting material for the production of biodiesel, which is viewed as an alternative renewable fuel for crude oil-derived diesel. Methanol is preferred over ethanol for the transesterification reaction due to its superior reactivity with triglycerides and high alkaline dissolution properties.
  • Biodiesel is a clean burning fuel that increases energy security and leads to a lower carbon footprint. It exhibits a higher flash point (100°C minimum) and can be blended with diesel fuel at any proportion; both fuels can be mixed during the fuel supply to vehicles. The environmental benefits of biodiesel had spurred the continued increase in biodiesel production in the historical years, except for 2020, when the pandemic was at large. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2022, the production of biodiesel in 2021 recovered, reaching 734 thousand barrels per day (higher than pre-pandemic levels) after showing a slight decrement in 2020. The increasing production trend is likely to increase the share of methanol consumption in biodiesel production during the forecast period.
  • Considering all the abovementioned factors, the use and demand of methanol for energy-related applications are expected to grow in the forecast period.

Asia-Pacific Region to Dominate the Market

  • The Asia-Pacific dominated the worldwide market with a significant market share. It is projected to maintain its dominance during the forecast period. China alone is the largest producer and consumer of over 60% of the world's methanol, making the country the worldwide leader. In Anyang, Henan Province, China, a 'cutting-edge' carbon dioxide-to-methanol plant has begun production, becoming the world's first commercial-scale facility to manufacture methanol from captured waste carbon dioxide and hydrogen gases.
  • According to the Methanol Institute, methanol powers up to 7 million automobiles in China, contributing to more than 5% of the country's fuel pool. Methanol emits 26% less carbon dioxide than conventional gasoline-powered automobiles, even when generated primarily using coal-based techniques. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to "increase the popularity of methanol automobiles" and study the 'green methanol + methanol cars' concept.
  • In India, NITI Aaayog has designed a strategy to replace 10% of crude imports with methanol alone by 2030. This takes about 30 MT of methanol. Methanol and DME are significantly less expensive than petrol and diesel; India expects to lower its fuel expense by 30% by 2030.
  • Japan is home to some major automotive producers, including Kawasaki, Yamaha, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Suzuki, who are planning to develop vehicles that use methanol as fuel. The National Energy Strategy of Japan focuses on reducing petrol dependency from 50% to 40% by 2030, improving energy efficiency by 30%, and replacing 20% of transport fuel with an alternative fuel, such as methanol, enhancing the demand for the market studied.
  • Singapore is the most recent country to join the ongoing efforts to establish a worldwide infrastructure for producing and distributing methanol as a marine fuel. Singapore, which is already recognized as the world's largest bunkering center for the shipping sector, is set to become the first green e-methanol facility in Southeast Asia, a collaboration between the shipping and fuel industries.
  • All abovementioned factors are likely to fuel the growth of the methanol market in the Asia-Pacific over the forecast period.

Methanol Market Competitor Analysis

The methanol market is fragmented, with top players holding insignificant shares to affect market demand individually. Some major players in the market (in no particular order) include SABIC, Proman, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co. Ltd, Methanex Corporation, and ZPCIR.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET DYNAMICS

  • 4.1 Drivers
    • 4.1.1 Expanding Petrochemical Sector in China, the United States, and Other Asia-Pacific Countries
    • 4.1.2 Rising Demand for Methanol-based Fuel
    • 4.1.3 Increasing Utilization of Methanol in the Production of Olefins Using MTO
  • 4.2 Restraints
    • 4.2.1 Usage of Ethanol Fuel or Bioethanol in Comparison to Methanol
    • 4.2.2 Hazardous Impacts on Health
  • 4.3 Industry Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.4 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.4.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.4.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.4.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.4.4 Threat of Substitute Products and Services
    • 4.4.5 Degree of Competition
  • 4.5 Global Methanol Production Capacity by Key Feedstock
  • 4.6 Technological Snapshot
  • 4.7 Trade Analysis
  • 4.8 Price Trends

5 MARKET SEGMENTATION (Market Size in Volume)

  • 5.1 By Application
    • 5.1.1 Traditional Chemical
      • 5.1.1.1 Formaldehyde
      • 5.1.1.2 Acetic Acid
      • 5.1.1.3 Solvent
      • 5.1.1.4 Methylamine
      • 5.1.1.5 Other Traditional Chemicals
    • 5.1.2 Energy Related
      • 5.1.2.1 Methanol-to-olefin (MTO)
      • 5.1.2.2 Methyl Tert-butyl Ether (MTBE)
      • 5.1.2.3 Gasoline Blending
      • 5.1.2.4 Dimethyl Ether (DME)
      • 5.1.2.5 Biodiesel
  • 5.2 By Geography
    • 5.2.1 Asia-Pacific
      • 5.2.1.1 China
      • 5.2.1.2 India
      • 5.2.1.3 Japan
      • 5.2.1.4 South Korea
      • 5.2.1.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.2.2 North America
      • 5.2.2.1 United States
      • 5.2.2.2 Canada
      • 5.2.2.3 Mexico
    • 5.2.3 Europe
      • 5.2.3.1 Germany
      • 5.2.3.2 United Kingdom
      • 5.2.3.3 Italy
      • 5.2.3.4 France
      • 5.2.3.5 Rest of Europe
    • 5.2.4 South America
      • 5.2.4.1 Brazil
      • 5.2.4.2 Argentina
      • 5.2.4.3 Rest of South America
    • 5.2.5 Middle East
      • 5.2.5.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.2.5.2 South Africa
      • 5.2.5.3 Rest of Middle East

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
  • 6.2 Market Share (%) Analysis
  • 6.3 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
  • 6.4 Company Profiles
    • 6.4.1 Atlantic Methanol
    • 6.4.2 BASF SE
    • 6.4.3 Celanese Corporation
    • 6.4.4 Coogee
    • 6.4.5 Enerkem
    • 6.4.6 Eni SPA
    • 6.4.7 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC)
    • 6.4.8 Ineos
    • 6.4.9 Kingboard Holdings Limited
    • 6.4.10 Lyondellbasell Industries Holdings BV
    • 6.4.11 Methanex Corporation
    • 6.4.12 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc.
    • 6.4.13 Mitsui & Co. Ltd
    • 6.4.14 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co. Ltd
    • 6.4.15 OCI NV
    • 6.4.16 Petroliam Nasional Berhad
    • 6.4.17 Proman
    • 6.4.18 Sabic
    • 6.4.19 ZPCIR

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

  • 7.1 Use of Methanol in New and Expanding Fuel Applications
  • 7.2 Growing Trends Toward Renewable Methanol