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全球紛爭地區:造成全球重大經濟問題的3大政治熱點

Global War Zones: Three political hotspots causing significant global economic issues

出版商 MarketLine 商品編碼 923920
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 25 Pages
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全球紛爭地區:造成全球重大經濟問題的3大政治熱點 Global War Zones: Three political hotspots causing significant global economic issues
出版日期: 2019年12月01日內容資訊: 英文 25 Pages
簡介

隨著國際貿易和全球化,某些特定地區對全球經濟的運作成為絕對關鍵。目前2019年由於外交關係惡化,特別在3個地區相當脆弱:荷莫茲海峽、北非、南海。

本報告研究全球紛爭地區,系統性彙整造成全球重大經濟問題的3大政治熱點。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 荷莫茲海峽仍是全球重要經濟難關

  • 經由荷莫茲海峽的船運更昂貴且危險
  • 荷莫茲海峽石油運輸路徑的破壞將對全球供應產生重大影響
  • 沙烏地阿拉伯對石油設施的攻擊增加了引起紛爭的可能性
  • 荷莫茲海峽的石油供應崩壞將對全球經濟帶來重大影響

第3章 北非地區因社會騷亂易產生經濟動盪

  • 因飽受戰爭之苦、被認為處頹敗狀態,利比亞的潛在經濟成長被浪費
  • 阿爾及利亞仍曝露於紛爭及嚴峻經濟危機中
  • 埃及的不滿情緒正在醞釀,經濟展望惡化的可能性越來越高

第4章 南海對全球經濟構成重大的地緣政治威脅

  • 南海軍事化對全球經濟主動脈的安全性施加壓力
  • 隨著中國的活動擴大,南海中地緣政治所扮演角色擴大
  • 中國的興趣擴展將為繁雜的航路帶來風險
  • 香港的抗議活動已發展為重大國際事件

第5章 附錄

第6章 分析師觀點

第7章 關於MarketLine

目錄
Product Code: ML00026-030

Summary:

Through international trade and globalization, there are certain regions that have become absolutely critical to functioning of the global economy. As goods, energy and services move around the world they often pass through certain choke points in which any political instability or fighting would block a huge portion of world trade. Often these areas are highly unstable due to the significance of the value that moves through them and countries jostle for control over the good that move through them. At present in 2019 three areas in particular are highly vulnerable due to worsening diplomatic relations in the immediate vicinity, the Strait of Hormuz, North Africa and the South China Sea.

Key Highlights:

The waters surrounding the Arabian Peninsula are among the most sensitive to the functioning of the world economy that exist. Exposed to numerous geopolitical threats, peace in the region is easily destabilized. For shipping, the global supply of oil, and economic performance of many countries around the world, the region is especially risky. Recent political turmoil has added to sensitivities. In the event of the Persian Gulf and the neighboring Strait of Hormuz being disrupted the extent of damage to industries and whole economies would be far reaching.

Large areas of North Africa were subject to political, social and economic upheaval during the Arab Spring in 2011. Stemming from anti-government protests the collapse of governments in Egypt, Libya and beyond, depressed the economic fortunes of the region. Troublingly, many of the underlying causes of the uprisings and discontent elsewhere remain and in some instances have worsened. Libya is barely recognizable as a state and is subject to an attritional war between competing forces laying claim to the desert country. Poor living standards and tumbling personal wealth are causing strife in Egypt and Algeria. Meanwhile, Chad continues to be perilously close to further chaotic times. The region is beset by economic troubles that could easily worsen into open conflict.

Vast quantities of trade flow through the South China Sea. Chinese assertiveness and increasingly militaristic actions have ramped up geopolitical tensions in the region, threatening security in what constitutes a major choke point in the global economy. Though disputes over borders and extent of national waters have rumbled on for decades, the entry of a much more politically and economically aggressive Beijing now poses a serious threat to several economies bordering the South China Sea. Militarization is chiefly to blame and now key shipping routes are subject to an intensifying geopolitical game that appears unlikely to yield a decisive winner for quite some time to come.

Scope:

  • See how major economic disruption has been caused through political instability
  • Learn how situations might be remedied and how they came about
  • Understand the fragile nature and high risk involved in investing in some geographical areas
  • See which economic areas are most under threat globally

Reasons to buy:

  • Where are some of the most under threat regions in the world?
  • What has caused the disagreements in those areas?
  • Just what economic assets are under threat?
  • Who are the main Protaganists?
  • Could these situations be resolved, and if so how?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. Strait of Hormuz remains critical global economic choke point
  • 1.2. North Africa region vulnerable to further economic turmoil stemming from social unrest
  • 1.3. South China Sea has become big geopolitical threat to world economy

2. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS CRITICAL GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHOKE POINT

  • 2.1. Shipping through Strait of Hormuz is now more expensive and dangerous
  • 2.2. Disruption to Strait of Hormuz oil routes would have major impact on global supply
  • 2.3. Strike on Saudi Arabian oil installation ramps up likelihood of damaging conflict
  • 2.4. Impact on global economy of oil supply disruption in Strait of Hormuz would be substantial
    • 2.4.1. Alternative supply routes to improve security are possible but are a long way from happening

3. NORTH AFRICA REGION VULNERABLE TO FURTHER ECONOMIC TURMOIL STEMMING FROM SOCIAL UNREST

  • 3.1. Beset by war and considered a failed state, potential economic growth in Libya is being wasted
  • 3.2. Algeria remains exposed to forces capable of bringing about conflict and severe economic distress
  • 3.3. Discontent is brewing in Egypt, raising prospect of worsening economic outlook

4. SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS BECOME BIG GEOPOLITICAL THREAT TO WORLD ECONOMY

  • 4.1. Militarization of South China Sea exerts pressure on security of vital artery of world economy
  • 4.2. Geopolitics now plays an enlarged role in the South China Sea following expansion of Chinese activities
  • 4.3. Expanding Chinese interests poses risks to busy shipping lanes
  • 4.4. Hong Kong protests have grown into major international incident

5. APPENDIX

  • 5.1. Sources
  • 5.2. Further reading

6. ASK THE ANALYST

7. ABOUT MARKETLINE

LIST OF FIGURES

  • Figure 1: Strait of Hormuz
  • Figure 2: Grace 1
  • Figure 3: Iranian oil rent 2007 to 2017 (% of GDP)
  • Figure 4: Top oil producing nations by volume. (millions of barrels per day)
  • Figure 5: Libya: Occupiers of territory. 16th September 2019
  • Figure 6: Noureddine Bedoui
  • Figure 7: Egypt GDP growth 2010 to 2017
  • Figure 8: Paracel Islands
  • Figure 9: YJ-12 Anti-Ship Missiles
  • Figure 10: Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte
  • Figure 11: Vietnam coast line oil fields
  • Figure 12: Meng Wanzhou