By the end of 2020, the global passenger vehicle demand is predicted to plunge by 11% due to Covid-19 pandemic and commercial vehicle industry is expected to witness a fall in the demand for the first time in the decade. All the major markets are estimated to witness sharp decline, while, the countries including the U.S., Italy, India, France, South Korea, Japan, China, United Kingdom, and Spain are expected to witness fall of more than 10%. From a more optimistic perspective, the year 2021 could see a positive growth- curve in terms of passenger cars demand; however, the auto industry would at least need minimum of 5 years' time to regain the sales volumes of 2019.
M14 Intelligence predicts that passenger vehicle demand is expected to grow by 1.9% between 2020 to 2030 with more than 56 million cars equipped with some level of autonomy. The penetration rate of level 1 and level 2 autonomy would be highest during these years; while, level 3 autonomy will take slower pace. Besides, as per the current industry developments from tech companies and traditional OEMs, level 4/5 AVs for ride-hailing or car sharing are likely to be on streets by 2025. The trend shows that AVs for shared mobility would see larger scale deployment from 2025, across big cities with connected infrastructure and with high population density.
The detailed analysis of the ADAS & autonomous driving technology penetration in passenger and commercial vehicles, robotaxis, shuttles, pods and goods-delivery vehicles, autonomy package analysis, sensor and sub-component market, competitive assessment, and trends finds a major place in latest report "Edition 2020, ADAS & Autonomous Driving Technology- Market & Industry Analysis, Forecast - 2020 - 2040" published in June 2020.
The current effect of COVID-19 on auto sales, development of autonomous driving technologies and its future impact have been considered in the market analysis of the study. The autonomous shuttles and good-delivery autonomous vehicles have been deployed in few countries during this pandemic time which is expected to further give a push to this market. A separate analysis on these autonomous commercial vehicles and the competition between the players have been included in the study. Autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has been a trending topic and automakers are promoting driverless ridesharing as low-cost transit option that has potential to change the transportation system. Car sharing is great opportunity particularly for the companies having hands-on autonomous vehicles such as Tesla, Daimler, Waymo, and others. Driverless ridesharing is expected to become future of intelligent transportation. The early deployment of robotaxis is expected in the countries of Western Europe, the U.S., China, and Japan. However, post 2030, the deployment in Chinese market is anticipated to overtake the Western markets of the U.S. and Europe. The study has also focused on these potential markets and anticipated the demand for this way of commute in near future. By 2025, the commercial vehicle industry is expected to get disrupted largely by autonomous and connected vehicle technology. This penetration of autonomous driving in trucking industry is expected to bring multiple changes in the operations of OEMs and tech players. The development of SAE level 1 and level 2 trucks is making steady progress and expected to gain momentum early this year (2020) in some states of the U.S. and few European countries; while level 4 autonomy of trucks with estimated time to market between 2025 to 2030. The report is inclusive of level wise analysis of the complete commercial vehicle industry.
Sensors and software are the vital components for enabling the automation in the passenger as well as commercial vehicles. A typical autonomy package consist of key technologies such as - sensing and mapping hardware, sensor-supporting hardware, mapping and localization software, control systems and computing hardware, control system software, data/cyber security software, connectivity hardware, V2X/connectivity software, HMI & safety related hardware, and HMI software. While the key components are LiDAR, camera, radar, V2X hardware and software, mapping hardware and software, HMI hardware and software, cyber security software, embedded controls hardware and software, and other electronics & architecture. The market analysis of sensor suite and sub-components in the autonomous vehicle accounts the major share in the study. The autonomy package and the cost vary with every level of automation, which is also represented graphically in this study.
Moreover, to understand industry sentiments and every other aspect of this industry, the automotive analysts and consultants at M14 Intelligence have interviewed more than 30 players in the ecosystem. These includes the OEMs, new entrants, sensor suppliers, component manufacturers, tier-1s, and tier-2s. Furthermore, the key enablers that are pushing the market towards new growth prospects and challenges that needs to be worked upon are analyzed in this research study. Also, understanding of the latest technological advancements and opportunities that could disrupt this market in near future, find a significant place in this study.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
01. SCOPE OF RESEARCH
02. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
03. AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND POST COVID-19
04. ADAS PASSENGER VEHICLES - LEVEL 1 & 2
05. AUTONOMOUS OEM PASSENGER VEHICLES - LEVEL 3 AND ABOVE
06. ROBOTAXIS - AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE
07. ADAS AND AUTONOMOUS COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
- 7.1.. ROLE OF SUPPLIERS IN AUTONOMOUS TRUCKING INDUSTRY
08. CAMERA SENSOR
- 8.1.. MARKET FORECAST
- 8.1.1. CAMERA DEMAND BY LEVELS OF AUTOMATION
- 8.1.2. CAMERA DEMAND BY TECHNOLOGY TYPES
- 8.2. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
- 8.2.1. FORWARD MAIN CAMERA (MONO, STEREO, TRIPLE)
- 8.2.2. SURROUND-VIEW CAMERA SYSTEM
- 8.2.3. THERMAL CAMERA
- 8.2.4. IN-CABIN MONITORING - DRIVER MONITORING SYSTEM AND GESTURE RECOGNITION
- 8.3. SUPPLIERS ANALYSIS
- 8.4. IMAGE SENSOR SUPPLIERS ANALYSIS
- 8.5. TIER 1 SUPPLIERS ANALYSIS
09. RADAR SENSOR
- 9.1. MARKET FORECAST
- 9.1.1. RADAR DEMAND BY LEVELS OF AUTOMATION
- 9.1.2. RADAR DEMAND BY TECHNOLOGY TYPES
- 9.2. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
- 9.2.1. SHORT/MEDIUM-RANGE RADAR
- 9.2.2. LONG-RANGE RADAR
- 9.2.3. HIGH-RESOLUTION IMAGING RADAR/ 4D RADAR
- 9.3. SUPPLIERS ANALYSIS
10. LIDAR SENSOR
- 10.1. MARKET FORECAST
- 10.2. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
- 10.2.1. MECHANICAL SCANNING LIDAR
- 10.2.2. SOLID-STATE LIDAR
- 10.2.3. LIDAR SUPPLIERS ANALYSIS
- 10.3. LIDAR SUB-COMPONENTS
- 10.3.1. PHOTODETECTOR TECHNOLOGIES
- 10.3.2. VCSEL
11. AUTONOMY PACKAGE COST ANALYSIS
- 11.1. VALUE SHARE OF COMPONENTS FOR L1 AND L2 AUTONOMY PACKAGES
- 11.2. VALUE SHARE OF COMPONENTS FOR L3 AND ABOVE AUTONOMY PACKAGES
12. ACCESSING COUNTRIES AD REGULATIONS AND IMPACT
- 12.1. NORTH AMERICA
- 12.2. EUROPE
- 12.3. LATIN AMERICA
- 12.4. AUSTRALIA
- 12.5. ASEAN
13. ACCESSING COUNTRIES' AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES READINESS INDEX
14. ADAS AND AD R&D SPENDINGS
- 14.1. COUNTRY LEVEL ASSESSMENT
- 14.2. OEM R&D ASSESSMENT
15. PRIVATE INVESTMENTS IN ADAS AND AD INDUSTRY
16. MACRO FACTORS IMPACT ON ADAS & AD INDUSTRY
17. MICRO FACTORS IMPACT ON ADAS & AD INDUSTRY
18. TIER-1 SUPPLIERS LANDSCAPE
- 18.1. TIER 1 SUPPLIERS R&D EXPENSES ASSESSMENT
- 18.2. TIER 1 SUPPLIERS - OEMS PARTNERSHIP MAPPING
- 18.3. TIER 1 SUPPLIERS - STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP MAPPING
19. APPENDICES
- 19.1. ADAS AND AUTONOMOUS FUNCTIONS
- 19.2. LEVELS OF AUTONOMY
- 19.3. AUTONOMOUS DRIVING FROM CONSUMERS PERSPECTIVE
- 19.4. LIST OF COMPANIES ANALYSED IN THIS STUDY
LIST OF EXHIBITS
- Exhibit 1. Covid-19 Impact on Passenger and Commercial Vehicles Demand, 2020
- Exhibit 2. Impact of COVID-19 on Passenger and Commercial Vehicles Demand in Top Automotive Markets of United States, China, and Western Europe, 2019-20
- Exhibit 3. Global Heat Map - Estimated COVID-19 Impact on Passenger Vehicles Demand, 2019-20
- Exhibit 4. Worldwide Passenger and Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecast, 2020-40
- Exhibit 5. Level 1 and Level 2 Passenger Vehicles Demand in 2020, Breakdown by Top Markets
- Exhibit 6. Level 1 and Level 2 Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast and Penetration Rate, 2020-40
- Exhibit 7. Level 1 and Level 2 Passenger Vehicle Sales Forecast, Breakdown by Top Markets, 2020-40
- Exhibit 8. Leading Level 2 Models by OEMs
- Exhibit 9. Operating Environments for Different Levels of Autonomous Vehicles
- Exhibit 10. Level 3 and Level 4 Private OEM Passenger Vehicles Launch Timelines and Sales Forecast
- Exhibit 11. Level 3 PV Sales Forecast and Adoption Rate, Breakdown by Top Markets, 2020-40
- Exhibit 12. Estimated Robotaxis Sales Demand and Market Penetration for Autonomous Shared Mobility, 2020-40
- Exhibit 13. Robotaxis for Shared Mobility Demand Forecast, Breakdown by Top Markets, 2020-40
- Exhibit 14. Communicated Time-to-market by Leading Robotaxi Players
- Exhibit 15. Robotaxis Tested Miles, Fleet Size, and Disengagements in California
- Exhibit 16. Robotaxi Companies Analysis - Global Fleet, Funding, and Communicated Time-to-Market
- Exhibit 17. Estimated Sales Demand Forecast and Market Penetration of Commercial Vehicles, Breakdown by Levels of Automation, 2019-40
- Exhibit 18. Autonomy Level-wise Commercial Vehicles Sales Forecast, Breakdown by Top Markets
- Exhibit 19. Communicated Time-to-Market AVs by Commercial Vehicles OEM
- Exhibit 20. Fleet Size Commercial Vehicle
- Exhibit 21. Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Players Analysis
- Exhibit 22. Global ADAS and AD Camera Sales Forecast, Breakdown by PV and CV, 2020-40
- Exhibit 23. Camera Content per Car, Breakdown by Levels of Automation
- Exhibit 24. Average Camera Content per Passenger and Commercial Vehicle, 2020-40
- Exhibit 25. ADAS & AD-PV & CV Camera Sales Forecast, Breakdown by Autonomy Levels, 2020-40
- Exhibit 26. ADAS and AD Camera Sales Forecast, Breakdown by Technology Types, 2020-40
- Exhibit 27. ADAS and AD Camera Sensing Technologies
- Exhibit 28. Camera Sensing Technologies Comparison - Mono, Stereo, Thermal, and ToF
- Exhibit 29. ADAS Functions Served by Camera Technologies
- Exhibit 30. List of Front Mono, Stereo, and Triple Camera Systems by Suppliers and Levels of Autonomy
- Exhibit 31. List of Surround-view Systems by Suppliers and Levels of Autonomy
- Exhibit 32. List of Thermal Camera Systems by Suppliers and Levels of Autonomy
- Exhibit 33. List of Driver Monitoring Systems by Suppliers and Levels of Autonomy
- Exhibit 34. ADAS and Autonomous Driving Camera Ecosystem - Image Sensor, Camera Module, SOC, Vision Processor, AI, Computer Vision, Optics Suppliers
- Exhibit 35. Image Sensor Suppliers Analysis - ADAS and Autonomous Driving Industry, 2019
- Exhibit 36. Tier 1 Camera System Suppliers Analysis
- Exhibit 37. ADAS and Autonomous Driving Radar Sales Demand, Breakdown by PV and CV, 2020-40
- Exhibit 38. Radar Content per Passenger Vehicles, Breakdown by Levels of Automation
- Exhibit 39. Average Radar Content per Passenger and Commercial Vehicle, 2020-40
- Exhibit 40. ADAS and AV Radar Sales Forecast for PV and CV, Breakdown by Levels of Automation, 2020-40
- Exhibit 41. ADAS and AD Short/Medium-range and Long-range Radar Sales Forecast, 2020-40
- Exhibit 42. ADAS and Autonomous Driving Radar Ecosystem - Radar Module, Sensor, SoC/Chip, and High-resolution Imaging Radar Suppliers
- Exhibit 43. List of Radar Suppliers by Product Specification and Customer Mapping
- Exhibit 44. ADAS and Autonomous Driving LiDAR Sales Forecast, Breakdown by PC and CV, 2020-40
- Exhibit 45. Possible Positions of LiDAR Deployment in L3 Cars, L4/5 OEM Cars, L4/5 Robotaxis, and L4/5 Trucks
- Exhibit 46. Average LiDAR Content in PV and CV, Breakdown by Levels of Automation, 2020-40
- Exhibit 47. ADAS and AD - Mechanical Scanning and Solid-state LiDAR Sales Forecast, 2020-2040
- Exhibit 48. ADAS and AD LiDAR Technologies Types and Suppliers Snapshot, 2020
- Exhibit 49. ADAS and AD LiDAR Industry Evolution Timeline
- Exhibit 50. LiDAR Technology Suppliers Analysis - Ranking
- Exhibit 51. ADAS and AD LiDAR Sub-component Ecosystem - Illumination, Photodiode, and Optical
- Exhibit 52. Comparison of Photodetector Technologies
- Exhibit 53. Level 1, Level 2, Level 3, Level 4 - Robotaxi, and Level 4 - OEM Autonomy Package Cost Projections, 2020 - 2040
- Exhibit 54. Estimated Breakdown of L1 and L2 Autonomy Package Cost to OEM
- Exhibit 55. Estimated Breakdown of L3 and L4/5 Autonomy Package Cost to OEM
- Exhibit 56. Percentage of OEM Car Models Equipped with AEB Feature
- Exhibit 57. IIHS Ratings-2020 Winner Car Models
- Exhibit 58. Car Models Equipped with Automated Driving Systems
- Exhibit 59. Euro NCAP 2019 Car Ratings
- Exhibit 60. Latest ANCAP Published 5-Star Car Models
- Exhibit 61. ASEAN NCAP Star Car Ratings, 2019-2020
- Exhibit 62. 5 Autonomous Vehicle Readiness Index Scores by Country
- Exhibit 63. Government's Role Index Score in Country's AV Readiness
- Exhibit 64. Social Acceptance Index Score in Country's AV Readiness
- Exhibit 65. Ease of Adoption Score For Country's AV Readiness
- Exhibit 66. Technological Advancements Score for Country's AV Readiness
- Exhibit 67. R&D Ratios of Top Automotive OEMs
- Exhibit 68. Recent Private Investments in ADAS and AD Industry, 2017-2020
- Exhibit 69. Leading Tier 1 Suppliers R&D Expense Ratio - Comparison
- Exhibit 70. Tier 1 Suppliers Partnership Mapping with OEMs
- Exhibit 71. Recent Acquisitions by Tier 1s in ADAS and AD Industry
- Exhibit 72. Recent Partnerships/Collaborations/JVs by Tier 1s in ADAS and AD Industry
- Exhibit 73. Recent Investments by Tier 1s in ADAS and AD Industry
- Exhibit 74. SAE International - Levels of Automation
- Exhibit 75. U.K Representation of Levels of Automation
- Exhibit 76. List of Companies Analysed in This Study
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