促進排放量的削減:利用生質燃料·替代燃料車，達成CO2排放量的削減目標

為了防止全球暖化·氣候變動，COP21 (聯合國氣候變化綱要公約第21屆締約國大會) 中締約國提交INDC (自定草案)，制定到2030年的二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量削減目標。其具體的配合措施有藉由轉用CO2排放量少的生質燃料、及推動替代燃料車的普及，來逐日削減道路交通CO2排放量。

本報告提供活用各種生質燃料及替代燃料車以削減CO2排放量之預測相關分析，提供您各種的生質燃料 (乙醇，生質柴油等) 及替代燃料車 (電動車，燃料電池汽車等) 的CO2削減效果，及今後的道路交通CO2排放量削減預測等之調查評估。

摘要整理

市場環境

• INDC (各國的自定草案) ，到2030年削減全球道路交通23.9％的CO2排放量誓約

分析

• 如果綜合生質燃料·替代燃料車·燃油消耗率改善技術，有可能在2030年將道路交通CO2排放量削減29.1％

未來展望

圖表一覽

• 全球道路交通的CO2排放量 (1980∼2015年)
• 道路交通的CO2排放量預測:經濟活動如同以往的情況，無條件/帶條件遵守INDC誓約內容的情況
• 第1代乙醇·纖維質乙醇的CO2排放量:與汽油的比較，混合比率別 (E5，E10，E85)
• 第1代生質柴油·可再生生質柴油的CO2排放量:與汽油的比較，混合比率別 (E5，E10，E85)
• CNG (壓縮天然氣)·LNG (液化天然氣) 的CO2排放量:與柴油燃料的比較，沼氣的供給來源別 (天然氣，厭氧消化沼氣，垃圾掩埋沼氣)
• 混合動力汽車 (PHEV)·電動車 (EV)·燃料電池汽車 (FCV) 的CO2排放量:與汽油車的比較，電力·氫的供給來源別 (石化燃料，再生能源)
• 第1代/下一代型生質燃料與天然氣車 (NGV) ，可在2030年之前，取代45.4％以上道路交通的石化燃料消費量
• 道路交通的CO2排放量預測:替代燃料 (車) 的普及率零/低水準/中水準/高水準的情況

Global warming returns to center stage as a global agreement on climate change was reached at 21^st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21). Of 34 billion tons (GT) of global CO2 emissions in 2015, road transportation made up 5.7 GT and has steadily increased over the years. With Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) pledges from nations accounting for nearly 99% of global yearly CO2 emissions, significant strides must be made in biofuels and alternative fuel vehicles to achieve the goal set for 2030. The transition of the biofuels industry towards low-carbon biofuels in combination with market penetration of alternative fuel vehicles and improved vehicle technologies are pivotal in reducing global road transportation CO2 emissions.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

LANDSCAPE

• INDC pledges target 23.9% reduction in global road transportation CO₂ emissions in 2030.

ANALYSIS

• Combination of biofuels, alternative fuel vehicles, and fuel efficiency improvements results in 29.1% reduction of global road transportation CO₂ emissions in 2030.

OUTLOOK

TABLE OF FIGURES

• Figure 1: Graphic Global Road Transportation Emissions (GT CO2), 1980 to 2015
• Figure 2: Graphic Global Road Transport CO2 Emissions Projection Based on Business-as-usual, Unconditional, and Conditional INDC Pledges
• Figure 3: Graphic First-generation Ethanol and Cellulosic Ethanol CO2 Emissions Reduction Relative to Gasoline by Blending Percentage (E5, E10, and E85)
• Figure 4: Graphic First-generation Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel CO2 Emissions Reduction Relative to Diesel by Blending Percentage (B5, B20, B100)
• Figure 5: Graphic Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) CO2 Emissions Reduction Relative to Diesel by Methane Source (Natural Gas, Anaerobic Digestion Biogas, Landfill Gas)
• Figure 6: Graphic Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), Electric Vehicles (EV), and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) CO2 Emissions Reduction Relative to Gasoline by Electricity and Hydrogen Source (Fossil, Renewable)
• Figure 7: Graphic First-generation biofuels, next-generation biofuels, and NGVs account for at least 45.4% of potential fossil fuel displacement in road transportation in 2030
• Figure 8: Graphic Global Road Transportation CO2 Emission Projections Based on No-adoption, Low-adoption, Medium-adoption, and High-adoption of Alternative Fuels and Vehicles