表紙
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
975918

電動汽車:陸地,海洋和空中2021-2041

Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2021-2041

出版日期: | 出版商: IDTechEx Ltd. | 英文 289 Slides | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格
  • 全貌
  • 簡介
  • 目錄
簡介

標題
電動汽車:陸,海和空2021-2041
IDTechEx關於全球電動汽車市場的主要報告,包括BEV,PHEV和FCEV兩輪車,汽車,貨車,卡車,公共汽車,輪船,輪船和飛機。

"到2041年,橫跨陸地,海洋和空中的電動汽車市場將達到2.3萬億美元。"

"電動汽車:陸地,海洋和空中2021-2041" 將IDTechEx的核心電動汽車預測放在一個地方:單位銷量,電池需求,市場規模等。每章都總結了車輛細分(兩輪車,小汽車,廂式貨車/輕型貨車,卡車,公共汽車,休閒船,短途和深海船舶,有人駕駛飛機)或啟用技術(Li-離子電池,電動機)。

通過更清晰地瞭解相對市場規模,電池需求以及除汽車以外增長最快的電動汽車市場,我們的目標是使行業內的人們能夠對他們的投資做出更明智的決策,並專注於電動汽車汽車工業。我們在下面總結每一章。

在美國和歐洲,城市出行的主要形式是汽車,而在東亞,主要的交通形式是摩托車,摩托車的擁有和運營成本要便宜得多。通常,摩托車不符合與汽車相同的排放標準,並且污染更嚴重。在過去的十年中,印度已超過中國,成為世界上最大的摩托車市場,在2020財年(SIAM)售出了約1700萬輛摩托車,而全球市場為5700萬輛(Marklines)。在全球污染最嚴重的十個城市中,印度有七個是絕非偶然的。當我們聽到來自印度等國家的雄心勃勃的電氣化目標時□□,重點是兩用車和微型機動車輛的電氣化,而不是汽車。

電動車

曾經被嘲笑為玩具的電動車如今僅用了不到15年的時間就提供了先進的汽車技術和性能,從2.5秒0-6 0mph加速,到自動駕駛功能和太陽能車身。電動汽車(BEV)是最終的競爭:使用時的零排放和汽車初創公司(以及中國)的關注點。另一方面,插電式混合動力汽車(PHEV)提供了短期/中期解決方案,從而緩解了人們最初對範圍焦慮的擔憂。插電式混合動力汽車往往是老牌汽車製造商關注的焦點,但越來越失去了電動汽車的份額。由於汽車銷量龐大,而且每輛汽車的電池尺寸相對較大,因此到2041年,汽車將主導電池需求和單位銷量。

電動貨車/輕型商用車(LCV)

如今,電動LCV市場處於起步階段:它比電動汽車市場小得多,並且幾乎沒有可供購買的模塊。未來幾年,公司將進行大型試點項目,以確保eLCV滿足其運行範圍,負載能力,有效載荷和可靠性要求。隨著對電氣技術的經驗和信任的增長,將開始用eLCV廣泛替代老化的柴油LCV。隨著零售業發展其在線銷售平台,以及對消費者逐漸放棄私家車主IP的移動即服務(MaaS)平台的推動,貨運需求的增長也推動了電氣化。

電動卡車

與其他汽車行業一樣,中型(MD)和重型(HD)卡車市場也在不斷發展。世界各地的政府,認識勢的盟友無拘無束氣候變化的災難性影響,並見證來自汽車尾氣污染物排放人體健康的不利影響,正在採取果斷的行動,這將在未來幾十年中,驅動汽車製造商零O N-道路廢氣排放動力總成解決方案。因此,對化石燃料動力內燃機的日子進行了編號。

電動巴士

中國在公共汽車電氣化方面處於世界領先地位,並將在可預見的未來繼續主導銷量。但是,由於補貼逐步取消以及一級城市的電動公交車日益飽和,IDTechEx預測,在經歷了迄今為止最大的降幅之後,中國的電動公交車銷售將穩定在低於補貼繁榮時期的水平。 2020年covid-19大流行。未來的增長將來自中國以外的國家,歐洲和東南亞。

電動船和船

在IDTechEx所從事的所有電動汽車領域中,陸上,海上和空中,在接下來的二十年中,我們主要預計將部分或全部過渡到牽引電池。對於海洋部門而言,情況並非如此簡單:由於許多船舶的功率,能源和距離要求龐大,減少海上排放將需要從電池和燃料電池到優質燃料,洗滌塔和慢速蒸汽的解決方案。

如今,電池主要出現在休閒划船,渡輪和短途船隻中,由於船隻尺寸小或定義明確的週期性路線(允許機會充電),它們一直處於穩定的攝取狀態。在大型深海船舶中,吸收緩慢,但是前所未有的全球排放法規正在推動變革,而即將出現的傳統解決方案短缺正在為舞台上的儲能初創企業創造新的機會。

載人電動飛機

在電動航空航天領域將有一些戲劇性的贏家和輸家。本報告探討了新型載人電動飛機的三種選擇的故事。小型固定翼純電動汽車現在正在交易。十年之內,我們將擁有更大的混合動力和純電動飛機,直至支線飛機:巨大的潛在市場。通配符是垂直起飛的純電動飛機,如空中出租車(eVTOL)和個人飛機。

鋰離子電池

該報告確定並解釋了電動汽車用鋰離子電池的發展趨勢。例如,鎳含量增加而鈷含量減少:為什麼這對於汽車製造商和整個行業的可持續性很重要?我們還根據頂級汽車市場的電動汽車數據庫提供有關鋰離子技術組合的歷史市場數據:中國已將LFP從其一半以上的汽車市場淘汰到今天的不足2%;為什麼特斯拉會與此相矛盾,並採用LFP在中國進行Model 3銷售?

電動牽引電機

所有電動機都具有將電能轉換為機械能的相同目的,但是有許多類型的電動機是根據其構造,工作原理甚至是所採用的控制技術來命名的。在這份報告中,我們探討為什麼汽車製造商CONV永磁電機,多電機erging,提供不同的電機類型的標桿分析,最後,我們如何指望電機市場的前景在未來十年發展了。

預測摘要

提供了直到2041年每個車輛細分的全球預測,並提供了歷史數據。

  • 總預測:電動汽車2015-2041年陸地,海洋,空中(單位,TWh,萬億美元)
  • 汽車 BEV,PHEV,FCEV,48V MH,48V FH 2015-2041(單位)
  • 汽車 BEV + PHEV 2016-2041(佔全球汽車市場的百分比,單位:GWh,十億美元)
  • 電動兩輪車,2015-2041年功率類別(單位,GWh,十億美元)
  • 輕型商用車 BEV,PHEV,FCEV 2017-2041(單位,GWh,10億美元)
  • 中型卡車 BEV,PHEV,FCEV 2017-2041(單位,GWh,10億美元)
  • 重型卡車 BEV,PHEV,FCEV 2017-20 41(單位,GWh,$ 10億)
  • 公共汽車 BEV,PHEV,FCEV 2017-2041(單位,GWh,10億美元)
  • 電動船和船 2015-2041年近海,近海短途休閒船(單位,GWh,10億美元)
  • 載人電動飛機垂直TOL,常規TOL,短程,遠程,BEV,HEV 2020-2041(單位,GWh,十億美元)

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目錄

1。執行摘要

  • 1.1 。IDTechEx電動汽車主要報告
  • 1.2。電動車條款
  • 1.3。電動汽車陸地,海洋和空中單位銷售2015-2041
  • 1.4。2015-2041年電動汽車陸地,海洋和空氣電池需求(TWh)
  • 1.5。2015-2041年電動汽車陸地,海洋和空氣市場價值(萬億美元)
  • 1.6。動力總成全球汽車銷量:2015-2041年BEV,PHEV,FCEV,HEV,48V MH,48V FH(汽車,百萬)
  • 1.7。鋰離子技術展望評論
  • 1.8。個人報告

2。簡介

  • 2.1。電動汽車:基本原理
  • 2.2。並聯和串聯混合動力:解釋
  • 2.3。電動汽車:典型規格
  • 2.4。什麼是鋰離子電池?
  • 2.5。電池困境
  • 2.6。鋰基電池家族樹
  • 2.7。是什麼推動了向電動汽車的過渡?
  • 2.8。是什麼推動了向電動汽車的過渡?
  • 2.9。電動汽車的壁壘是什麼?
  • 2.10。電動汽車的壁壘是什麼?
  • 2 .11。化石燃料禁令:解釋
  • 2.12。官方或立法的化石燃料禁令
  • 2.13。非官方,起草或擬議的化石燃料禁令
  • 2.14。揭穿電動汽車神話:排放剛剛轉向發電?
  • 2.15。揭穿電動汽車神話:排放只是轉向發電?
  • 2.16。PHEV的總結與展望
  • 2.17。電池願望清單
  • 2.18。鋰離子電池以外的鋰電池

3。電動兩輪車(E2W)

  • 3.1。電動兩輪車的重要性
  • 3.2。電動兩輪車:駕駛員
  • 3.3。電動兩輪車:功率等級
  • 3.4。電動兩輪車:功率等級
  • 3.5。電動兩輪車電壓特性
  • 3.6。汽車銷售和兩輪車銷售在中國
  • 3.7。中國:黨的終結
  • 3.8。中國的E2W禁令
  • 3.9。印度:高污染和石油依賴
  • 3.10。印度:交通運輸多樣性
  • 3.11。印度的流動趨勢
  • 3.12。印度:歷史悠久的E2W市場增長
  • 3.13。印度:電動汽車政策有缺陷
  • 3.14。FY19的FAME:低速衝擊
  • 3.15。電動兩輪車超過4kW
  • 3.16。電動摩托車調查
  • 3.17。電動摩托車性能
  • 3.18。摩托車具有獨特的詢價uirements
  • 3.19。定制組件
  • 3.20。2020年的價值所在,2041年的價值所在
  • 3.21。電動兩輪車,功率等級2015-2041(兩輪車,百萬)
  • 3.22。電動兩輪車,功率等級2015-2041(GWh)
  • 3.23。2015-2041年按功率類別劃分的電動兩輪車(十億美元)

4。電動車

  • 4.1。全球汽車銷售:潛在市場
  • 4.2。短期和長期 "高峰汽車" 的差異
  • 4.3。2016- 2041年BEV + PHEV汽車:佔全球汽車市場的百分比
  • 4.4。2020-2041年BEV + PHEV汽車:市場規模(萬億美元)
  • 4.5。2016-2041年BEV + PHEV汽車:電池需求(GWh)
  • 4.6。陰極化學變化:鎳上升,鈷下降
  • 4.7。乘用車:能源密度趨勢
  • 4.8。中國,歐洲,美國,ROW評論
  • 4.9。2020年可回彈的電動汽車
  • 4.10。特斯拉的瘋狂估值
  • 4.11。鋰離子技術展望討論
  • 4.12。電動汽車預測:Covid-19的影響
  • 4.13。動力總成全球汽車銷量:2015-2041年BEV,PHEV,FCEV,HEV,48V MH,48V FH(汽車,百萬)
  • 4.14。中國電動汽車政策:2019-2022
  • 4.15。歐洲:最暢銷的插電式汽車模型
  • 4.16。歐洲排放標準
  • 4.17。美國:暢銷的插電式汽車型號
  • 4.18。汽車製造商在稅收抵免方面的進展
  • 4.19。流行的BEV模型的比較
  • 4.20。FCEV汽車:車型概述
  • 4.21。燃料電池的挑戰
  • 4.22。公開收費
  • 4.23。基礎設施成本
  • 4.24。美國的燃料電池充電基礎設施
  • 4.25。每英里燃油成本:FCEV,BEV,內燃

5。電動輕型商用車(ELCV)

  • 5.1。介紹
  • 5.2。LCV定義
  • 5.3。TCO優勢
  • 5。4.電動和柴油LCV成本平價
  • 5.5。小型eVan收支平衡:購買贈款
  • 5.6。eLCV市場驅動力
  • 5.7。區域摘要
  • 5.8。2017-2041年電動LCV市場滲透率
  • 5.9。2017-2041年電動LCV銷售量(BEV,PHEV和F CEV)
  • 5.10。電動LCV電池需求2017-2041(GWh)
  • 5.11。2017-2041年電動LCV市場價值(十億美元)

6。電動卡車

  • 6.1。電動卡車:駕駛員和障礙
  • 6.2。卡車分類
  • 6.3。公路貨運市場
  • 6.4。全球二氧化碳道路貨運排放量
  • 6.5。歐洲卡車製造商
  • 6.6。美國卡車製造商
  • 6.7。中國卡車製造商
  • 6.8。零排放中型和重型卡車的範圍
  • 6.9。重型:BEV或燃料電池?
  • 6.10。電動汽車的MW充電困難
  • 6.11。尼古拉時間表
  • 6.12。IDTechEx採訪:尼古拉的未來
  • 6.13。2017-2041年MD和HD卡車市場滲透率
  • 6.14。2017-2041年MD和HD卡車銷售(BEV,PHEV,FCEV)
  • 6.15。2017-2041年電動MD和HD卡車電池需求(GWh)
  • 6.16。2017-2041年電動MD和HD卡車市場價值(十億美元)

7。電動巴士

  • 7.1。巴士類型
  • 7.2。為什麼採用公共汽車?
  • 7.3。為什麼採用電動巴士?
  • 7.4。為什麼採用電動巴士?
  • 7.5。電動巴士的採用挑戰
  • 7.6。自主巴士:機器人班車
  • 7.7。自主公交車: "自主軌道交通" (ART)
  • 7.8。電動巴士:市場歷史
  • 7.9。插入式Hyb在中國和歐洲流行
  • 7.10。公交車電氣化的驅動因素和時機
  • 7.11。全球和區域銷售趨勢快照
  • 7.12。公交技術時間表2020-2040
  • 7.13。21個國家目標概述
  • 7.14。21種嘗試目標概述
  • 7.15。預計到2030年的較低的前期價格
  • 7.16。2015-2041年電動客車銷售量(千)
  • 7.17。2015-2041年電動客車電池需求(GWh)
  • 7.18。2015-2041年電動客車市場價值(十億美元)

8。ELEC TRIC船和船

  • 8.1。電動船和輪船:歷史悠久?
  • 8.2。運輸排放
  • 8.3。排放控制世界:硫
  • 8.4。2020年的排放控制區
  • 8.5。二氧化碳排放量
  • 8.6。監管發展時間表
  • 8.7。排放法規解決方案
  • 8.8。為什麼要電氣化?
  • 8.9。海事部門摘要
  • 8.10。歷史性市場增長和2020-21年管道
  • 8.11。領先的海上電池供應商
  • 8.12。產品陣容
  • 8.13。Covid-19:延誤而非取消
  • 8.14。Covid-19:OSV
  • 8.15。OSV投資回報率
  • 8.16。Covid-19:遊輪
  • 8.17。燃油價格
  • 8.18。競爭解決方案
  • 8.19。休閒划船:舷內和舷外
  • 8.20。強大的舷外機破壞舷內機
  • 8.21。舷外排放物
  • 8.22。忽略船外污染
  • 8.23。2015-2041年電動船和船舶銷售
  • 8.24。2015-2041年電動船和輪船電池需求(GWh)
  • 8.25。2015-2041年電動船市值與船舶市場價值(十億美元)

9。電動飛機

  • 9.1。介紹
  • 9.2。驅動因素和約束條件摘要
  • 9.3。電動飛機司機
  • 9.4。挑戰性
  • 9.5。更多電動飛機
  • 9.6。載人電動飛機的分類
  • 9.7。模型分析-預期範圍
  • 9.8。當前的中短期可尋址市場
  • 9.9。當前的遠程可尋址市場
  • 9.10。通過分類列出一些關鍵參與者和模型
  • 9.11。監管壁壘和立法動因
  • 9.12。無人機:用途和類型不斷擴展
  • 9.13。高空無人機的大量支出
  • 9.14。電動飛機市場預測

10。啟用技術S

  • 10.1。鋰離子電池
    • 10.1.1。什麼是鋰離子電池?
    • 10.1.2。電池困境
    • 10.1.3。電化學定義1
    • 10.1.4。電化學定義2
    • 10.1.5。鋰基電池家族樹
    • 10.1.6。電池願望清單
    • 10.1.7。超過一種鋰離子電池
    • 10.1.8。NMC:111至811
    • 10.1.9。鈷:價格波動
    • 10.1.10。陰極性能比較
    • 10.1.11。配備NMC 811的EV車型
    • 10.1.12。811商業化實例
    • 10.1.13。商業陽極:石墨
    • 10.1.14。矽基陽極的承諾
    • 10.1.15。矽的現實
    • 10.1.16。矽:增量步驟
    • 10。1.17。單元格中有什麼?
    • 10.1.18。惰性材料會對能量密度產生負面影響
    • 10.1.19。商業電池包裝技術
    • 10.1.20。商業細胞幾何結構的比較
    • 10.1.21。單元幾何選擇:是隨機的還是隨機的?
    • 10.1.22。什麼是NCMA?
    • 10.1.23。2015-2019年鋰離子技術歷史融合(插電式汽車)
    • 10.1.24。陰極化學變化:鎳上升,鈷下降
    • 10.1.25。乘用車:電池組能量密度趨勢
    • 10.1 .26。LFP:第二次來嗎?
    • 10.1.27。鋰離子電池以外的鋰電池
    • 10.1.28。鋰離子化學快照:2020,2025,2030
    • 10.1.29。電池問題
    • 10.1.30。現代科納在加拿大拿出屋頂
    • 10.1.31。減少電池
  • 10.2。電動牽引電機
    • 10.2.1。牽引電機:簡介
    • 10.2.2。牽引電機:簡介
    • 10.2.3。無刷直流電動機(BLDC):工作原理
    • 10.2 .4。BLDC電機:優勢與劣勢
    • 10.2.5。BLDC Motors:基準評分
    • 10.2.6。永磁同步電動機(PMSM):工作原理
    • 10.2.7。PMSM:優勢與劣勢
    • 10.2.8。PMSM:標桿sco的資源
    • 10.2.9。PMSM和BLDC之間的差異
    • 10.2.10。繞線轉子同步電動機(WRSM):工作原理
    • 10.2.11。WRSM汽車:標桿得分
    • 10.2.12。WRSM:優勢與劣勢
    • 10.2.13。交流感應電動機(ACIM):工作原理
    • 10.2.14。交流感應電動機(ACIM)
    • 10.2.15。交流感應電動機:基準評分
    • 10.2.16。交流感應電動機:優點,缺點
    • 10.2.17。磁阻電機
    • 10.2.18。磁阻電機:工作原理
    • 10.2.19。開關磁阻電機(SRM)
    • 10.2.20。開關磁阻電機:基準評分
    • 10.2.21。永磁輔助磁阻(PMAR)
    • 10.2.22。PMAR Motors:基準評分
  • 10.3。牽引電機:摘要和基準測試結果
    • 10.3.1。牽引電機結構比較及優點
    • 10.3.2。電機效率比較
    • 10.3.3。磁鐵價格上漲風險
    • 10.3.4 。多電機:解釋
    • 10.3.5。清醒汽車:雙PMSM?
    • 10.3.6。每輛車的電機和每輛車的kWp假設
    • 10.3.7。電動牽引電機技術展望2020-2030
    • 10.3.8。新興電機技術 10.3.9。徑向磁通電動機
    • 10.3.10。軸向磁通電動機
    • 10.3.11。徑向磁通與軸向磁通電動機
    • 10.3.12。軸向磁通馬達:有趣的玩家
    • 10.3.13。軸向磁通馬達玩家名單
    • 10.3.14。飛機的軸向磁通電動機
    • 10.3.15。西門子
    • 10.3.16。AVID EVO為10 kW/kg
    • 10.3.17。Avid著陸大訂單
    • 10.3.18。瑪格納克斯
    • 10.3.19。雅莎汽車
    • 10.3.20。實例探究
    • 10.3.21。輪轂電機
    • 10.3.22。輪轂電機的風險與機遇
    • 10.3.23。輪轂電機的風險與機遇
    • 10.3.24。輪轂電機的風險與機遇
    • 10.3.25。減少電動機中的稀土消耗
    • 10.3.26。減少電動機中的稀土用量
    • 10.3.27。鋁與銅繞組
    • 10.3.28。示例:帶有鋁繞組的SRM?
    • 10.3.29。示例:帶有鋁繞組的SRM?
    • 10.3.30。總結與展望

11。預測S:概述,假設,方法論

  • 11.1。預測假設
  • 11.2。預測常見問題
  • 11.3。電動汽車陸地,海洋和空中2015-2041
  • 11.4。2015-2041年電動汽車陸地,海洋和空氣電池需求(TWh)
  • 1 1.5。2015-2041年電動汽車陸地,海洋和空氣市場價值(萬億美元)
  • 11.6。動力總成全球汽車銷量:2015-2041年BEV,PHEV,FCEV,HEV,48V MH,48V FH (汽車,百萬)
  • 11.7。電動兩輪車,功率等級2015-2041(兩輪車,百萬)
  • 11.8。電動兩輪車,功率等級2015-2041(GWh)
  • 11.9。電動兩輪車,功率等級2015-2041(GWh)
  • 11.10。2015-2041年按功率類別劃分的電動兩輪車(十億美元)
  • 11.11。2016-2041年BEV + PHEV汽車:佔全球汽車市場的百分比
  • 11.12。2016-2041年BEV + PHEV汽車:電池需求(GWh)
  • 11.13。2017-2041年電動LCV市場滲透率
  • 11.14。2017-2041年電動LCV銷售量(BEV,PHEV和FCEV)
  • 11.15。電動LCV電池需求2017-2041(GWh)
  • 11.16。2017-2041年電動LCV市場價值(十億美元)
  • 11.17。2017-2041年MD和HD卡車市場滲透率
  • 11.18。2017-2041年MD和HD卡車銷售(BEV,PHEV,FCEV)
  • 11.19。2017-2041年電動MD和HD卡車電池需求(GWh)
  • 11.20 。2017-2041年電動MD和HD卡車市場價值(十億美元)
  • 11.21。2015-2041年電動客車銷售量(千)
  • 11.22。2015-2041年電動客車電池需求(GWh)
  • 11.23。2015-2041年電動客車市場價值(十億美元)
  • 11.24。2015-2041年電動波輪船銷售
  • 11.25。2015-2041年電動船和輪船電池需求(GWh)
  • 11.26。2015-2041年電動船和輪船市場價值(十億美元)
  • 11.27。2020-2041年電動飛機市場預測
目錄
Product Code: ISBN 9781913899141

Title:
Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2021-2041
IDTechEx master report on the global electric vehicle market including BEV, PHEV & FCEV two-wheelers, cars, vans, trucks, buses, boats, ships, and aircraft.

"Electric vehicles across land, sea and air will rise to a market of $2.3 trillion by 2041."

'Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea and Air 2021-2041' puts IDTechEx's core electric vehicle forecasts in one place: unit sales, battery demand, market sizing and more. Each chapter summarises the main drivers, trends and forecasts for a vehicle subsegment (two-wheelers, cars, vans / LCV, trucks, buses, leisure boats, commercial short and deep-sea ships, manned aircraft) or enabling technology (Li-ion batteries, electric motors).

By providing a clearer understanding of relative market sizes, battery demand and the fastest-growing electric vehicle markets beyond cars, our aim is to give those in the industry the knowledge to make more informed decisions on their investments and focus into the electric vehicle industry. We summarise each chapter below.

While in the US and Europe the primary form of urban mobility is the car, in east Asia the dominant form of transportation is the motorcycle, which is much cheaper to own and run. Often, motorcycles are not held to equivalent emissions standards as cars, and are more highly polluting. In the past decade, India has overtaken China to become the world's largest motorcycle market, selling roughly 17 million in fiscal year 2020 (SIAM) in a global market of 57 million (Marklines). It is no coincidence that India has seven out of the world's top ten most polluting cities. When we hear ambitious electrification targets from countries like India, it is the electrification of two-wheelers and micro-mobility, not cars, which is the focus.

Electric Cars

Once derided as toys, today electric cars with barely 15 years of development offer cutting-edge automotive technology and performance, from sub 2.5 second 0-60mph acceleration, to autonomous driving functionality and solar bodywork. Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are the endgame: zero emissions at point of use and the focus of automotive startups (and China). On the other hand, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) provide a short / mid-term solution, soothing initial fears of range anxiety; PHEVs tend to be the focus of incumbent automakers but are increasingly losing share to BEVs. Due to the sheer volume of vehicle sales and their relatively large battery sizes per vehicle, cars dominate battery demand and unit sales by 2041.

Electric Vans / Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV)

Today the electric LCV market is at a nascent stage: it is much smaller than the electric car market and few models are available for purchase. The next few years will see companies conducting large pilot projects to establish that eLCVs meet their operational range, load capacity, payload and reliability requirements. As experience and trust in electric technology grows, widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCVs will begin. Electrification is also driven by increasing demand for freight delivery as the retail industry grows its online sales platforms, and consumers gradually abandon private car ownership for mobility as a service (MaaS) platforms.

Electric Trucks

Along with the rest of the automotive sector, the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) truck market is evolving. Governments around the world, recognising the potentially catastrophic repercussions of unfettered climate change and witnessing the detrimental impact on human health from vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions, are taking decisive action, that will, in the coming decades, drive vehicle manufacturers to zero on-road exhaust emission powertrain solutions. Consequently, the days of the fossil fuel powered combustion engine are numbered.

Electric Buses

China has led the world in bus electrification and will continue to dominate sales volume for the foreseeable future. However, as a result of the subsidy phase-outs and the increasing saturation of electric buses in Tier 1 cities, IDTechEx project that electric bus sales in China will stabilise at a lower level than during the subsidy boom years, after the biggest decline yet in 2020 from the covid-19 pandemic. Future growth will be sourced from countries outside of China, in Europe and south-east Asia.

Electric Boats and Ships

Across all electric vehicle sectors tracked by IDTechEx over land, sea and air, we predominantly foresee a transition partly or completely to a traction battery over the next two decades. The case is not so simple for the marine sector: due to the sheer scale of the power, energy and distance requirements for many vessels, reducing maritime emissions will require solutions varying from batteries and fuel cells to premium fuels, scrubbers and slow-steaming.

Today, batteries have mainly emerged in leisure boating, ferries and short-sea vessels, where they have enjoyed steady uptake due to small vessel sizes or well-defined cyclical routes (that allow for opportunity charging). In larger deep-sea vessels, uptake is slow, but unprecedented global emissions regulations are driving change, and shortages of traditional solutions on the horizon are creating new opportunities for energy storage start-ups in the arena.

Manned Electric Aircraft

There will be some dramatic winners and losers in electric aerospace. The report explores the story of three options for new manned electrically-driven aircraft. Small fixed-wing pure-electric is trading now. Larger hybrid and pure electric aircraft up to regional aircraft will be with us within ten years: a huge addressable market. The wild card is vertical-takeoff pure-electric aircraft as air taxis (eVTOL) and personal aircraft.

Li-ion Batteries

The report identifies and explains trends in Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles. For example, nickel content is increasing while cobalt content is decreasing: why is this important for automakers and the overall sustainability of the industry? We also provide historic market data on the Li-ion technology mix based on our database of electric cars in top auto markets: China has phased-out LFP from over half its car market to less than 2% today; why will Tesla contradict this and adopt LFP for Model 3 sales in China?

Electric Traction Motors

All electric motors have the same purpose of converting electrical energy to mechanical energy, but there are many types of motors that derive their names from their construction, principles of operation, or even from the control technique employed on them. In this report we explore why automakers are converging on permanent magnet motors, multiple motors, provide a benchmarking analysis of the different motor types and, finally, an outlook for how we expect the motor market to evolve over the next ten years.

Summary of Forecasts

Global forecasts are provided for each vehicle subsegment up to 2041, with historic data.

  • Total Forecast: Electric vehicles Land, Sea, Air 2015-2041 (units, TWh, $ Trillion)
  • Cars BEV, PHEV, FCEV, 48V MH, 48V FH 2015-2041 (units)
  • Cars BEV + PHEV 2016-2041 (as a % of Global Car Market, units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Light Commercial Vehicles BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Medium-duty Truck BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Heavy-duty Truck BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Bus BEV, PHEV, FCEV 2017-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Electric Boat & Ship Leisure Boat, Short-sea, Deep-sea 2015-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)
  • Manned Electric Aircraft Vertical TOL, Conventional TOL, short-range, long-range, BEV, HEV 2020-2041 (units, GWh, $ billion)

Analyst access from IDTechEx

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. IDTechEx Electric Vehicle Master Report
  • 1.2. Electric Vehicle Terms
  • 1.3. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Unit Sales 2015-2041
  • 1.4. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Battery Demand 2015-2041 (TWh)
  • 1.5. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Market Value 2015-2041 ($ trillion)
  • 1.6. Global Car Sales by Powertrain: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, 48V MH, 48V FH 2015-2041 (cars, millions)
  • 1.7. Li-ion Technology Outlook Commentary
  • 1.8. Individual Reports

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
  • 2.2. Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
  • 2.3. Electric Vehicles: Typical Specs
  • 2.4. What is a Li-ion battery?
  • 2.5. The Battery Trilemma
  • 2.6. Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
  • 2.7. What's Driving the Transition to Electric Vehicles?
  • 2.8. What's Driving the Transition to Electric Vehicles?
  • 2.9. What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
  • 2.10. What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
  • 2.11. Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
  • 2.12. Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
  • 2.13. Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
  • 2.14. Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
  • 2.15. Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
  • 2.16. Summary and Outlook of PHEVs
  • 2.17. Battery Wish List
  • 2.18. Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion

3. ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS (E2W)

  • 3.1. The Importance of Electric Two-wheelers
  • 3.2. Electric Two-wheelers: Drivers
  • 3.3. Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
  • 3.4. Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
  • 3.5. Electric Two-wheeler Voltage Characteristics
  • 3.6. Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China
  • 3.7. China: The Party's Over
  • 3.8. E2W Bans in China
  • 3.9. India: High Pollution and Oil Dependence
  • 3.10. India: Transportation Diversity
  • 3.11. Mobility Trends in India
  • 3.12. India: Historic E2W Market Growth
  • 3.13. India: Flawed Electric Vehicle Policy
  • 3.14. FAME in FY19: Low-speed Impact
  • 3.15. Electric Two-wheelers Over 4kW
  • 3.16. Electric Motorcycle Survey
  • 3.17. Electric Motorcycle Performance
  • 3.18. Motorcycles Have Unique Requirements
  • 3.19. Custom Components
  • 3.20. Where the Value is in 2020, Where it Will be in 2041
  • 3.21. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (two-wheelers, millions)
  • 3.22. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 3.23. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 ($ billion)

4. ELECTRIC CARS

  • 4.1. Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
  • 4.2. Differences in Short-term and Long-term 'Peak Car'
  • 4.3. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: % of Global Car Market
  • 4.4. BEV + PHEV Cars 2020-2041: Market Size ($ trillion)
  • 4.5. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: Battery Demand (GWh)
  • 4.6. Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down
  • 4.7. Passenger Cars: Pack Energy Density Trends
  • 4.8. China, Europe, US, RoW Commentary
  • 4.9. Electric Cars Resilient in 2020
  • 4.10. Tesla's Crazy Valuation
  • 4.11. Li-ion Technology Outlook Discussion
  • 4.12. Electric Car Forecast: Covid-19 Impact
  • 4.13. Global Car Sales by Powertrain: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, 48V MH, 48V FH 2015-2041 (cars, millions)
  • 4.14. China EV policy: 2019-2022
  • 4.15. Europe: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
  • 4.16. Europe Emissions Standards
  • 4.17. US : Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
  • 4.18. Automaker Progress Towards Tax Credits
  • 4.19. Comparison of Popular BEV Models
  • 4.20. FCEV Car: Models Overview
  • 4.21. Challenges for Fuel Cells
  • 4.22. Public Charging
  • 4.23. Infrastructure Costs
  • 4.24. Fuel Cell Charging Infrastructure in the US
  • 4.25. Fuel Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, internal-combustion

5. ELECTRIC LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (ELCV)

  • 5.1. Introduction
  • 5.2. LCV Definition
  • 5.3. TCO Advantage
  • 5.4. Electric and Diesel LCV Cost Parity
  • 5.5. Small eVan Break-Even: Purchase Grant
  • 5.6. eLCV Market Drivers
  • 5.7. Regional Summary
  • 5.8. Electric LCV Market Penetration 2017-2041
  • 5.9. Electric LCV Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV and FCEV)
  • 5.10. Electric LCV Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
  • 5.11. Electric LCV Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)

6. ELECTRIC TRUCKS

  • 6.1. Electric Trucks: Drivers and Barriers
  • 6.2. Truck classifications
  • 6.3. Road Freight Market
  • 6.4. Global CO2 Road Freight Emissions
  • 6.5. Truck Makers in Europe
  • 6.6. Truck Makers in the US
  • 6.7. Truck Makers in China
  • 6.8. Range of zero emission medium and heavy trucks
  • 6.9. Heavy-duty: BEV or Fuel Cell?
  • 6.10. MW Charging Difficulty for BEVs
  • 6.11. Timeline for Nikola
  • 6.12. IDTechEx Take: The Future for Nikola
  • 6.13. MD & HD Truck Market Penetration 2017-2041
  • 6.14. MD & HD Truck Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
  • 6.15. Electric MD & HD Truck Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
  • 6.16. Electric MD & HD Truck Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)

7. ELECTRIC BUSES

  • 7.1. Bus Types
  • 7.2. Why Adopt Buses?
  • 7.3. Why Adopt Electric Buses?
  • 7.4. Why Adopt Electric Buses?
  • 7.5. Challenges for Electric Bus Adoption
  • 7.6. Autonomous Buses: Robot Shuttles
  • 7.7. Autonomous Buses: "Autonomous Rail Transit" (ART)
  • 7.8. Electric Buses: Market History
  • 7.9. Plug-in Hybrids in China and Europe
  • 7.10. Drivers and timing of bus electrification
  • 7.11. Snapshot of Global and Regional Sales Trends
  • 7.12. Bus technology timeline 2020-2040
  • 7.13. Overview of 21 Country Targets
  • 7.14. Overview of 21 Country Targets
  • 7.15. Expectation of Lower Up-front Price to 2030
  • 7.16. Electric Bus Sales 2015-2041 (Thousands)
  • 7.17. Electric Bus Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 7.18. Electric Bus Market Value 2015-2041 ($ billion)

8. ELECTRIC BOATS & SHIPS

  • 8.1. Electric Boats and Ships: A Long History?
  • 8.2. Shipping Emissions
  • 8.3. Emissions Control World: Sulphur
  • 8.4. Emission Control Areas in 2020
  • 8.5. CO2 Emissions
  • 8.6. Regulatory Developments Timeline
  • 8.7. Solutions to Emissions Regulation
  • 8.8. Why Electrification?
  • 8.9. Summary of Maritime Sectors
  • 8.10. Historic Market Growth and 2020-21 Pipeline
  • 8.11. Leading Maritime Battery Vendor
  • 8.12. Product Line-up
  • 8.13. Covid-19: Delays, not Cancellations
  • 8.14. Covid-19: OSVs
  • 8.15. OSV Return on Investment
  • 8.16. Covid-19: Cruise Ships
  • 8.17. Fuel Prices
  • 8.18. Competing Solutions
  • 8.19. Leisure Boating: Inboards & Outboards
  • 8.20. Powerful Outboards Undermining Inboards
  • 8.21. Outboard Emissions
  • 8.22. Outboard Pollution Ignored
  • 8.23. Electric Boat & Ship Sales 2015-2041
  • 8.24. Electric Boat & Ship Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 8.25. Electric Boat & Ship Market Value 2015-2041 ($ Billion)

9. ELECTRIC AIRCRAFT

  • 9.1. Introduction
  • 9.2. Summary of Drivers and Restraints
  • 9.3. Drivers for Electric Aircraft
  • 9.4. Challenges
  • 9.5. More Electric Aircraft
  • 9.6. Categorisation of Manned Electric Aircraft
  • 9.7. Model analysis - anticipated range
  • 9.8. Current short and medium-range addressable market
  • 9.9. Current long-range addressable market
  • 9.10. List of some key players and models by categorisation
  • 9.11. Regulatory barriers and legislative drivers
  • 9.12. Drones: Widening Uses and Types
  • 9.13. Large expenditure on high altitude drones
  • 9.14. Electric Aircraft Market Forecast

10. ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

  • 10.1. Li-ion Batteries
    • 10.1.1. What is a Li-ion battery?
    • 10.1.2. The Battery Trilemma
    • 10.1.3. Electrochemistry Definitions 1
    • 10.1.4. Electrochemistry Definitions 2
    • 10.1.5. Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
    • 10.1.6. Battery Wish List
    • 10.1.7. More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
    • 10.1.8. NMC: from 111 to 811
    • 10.1.9. Cobalt: Price Volatility
    • 10.1.10. Cathode Performance Comparison
    • 10.1.11. EV Models with NMC 811
    • 10.1.12. 811 Commercialisation Examples
    • 10.1.13. Commercial Anodes: Graphite
    • 10.1.14. The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
    • 10.1.15. The Reality of Silicon
    • 10.1.16. Silicon: Incremental Steps
    • 10.1.17. What is in a Cell?
    • 10.1.18. Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
    • 10.1.19. Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
    • 10.1.20. Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
    • 10.1.21. Cell Geometry Choices: Reason or Random?
    • 10.1.22. What is NCMA?
    • 10.1.23. Historic Li-ion Technology Mix, 2015-2019 (Plug-in Cars)
    • 10.1.24. Cathode Chemistry Changes: Nickel up Cobalt down
    • 10.1.25. Passenger Cars: Pack Energy Density Trends
    • 10.1.26. LFP: Second Coming?
    • 10.1.27. Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
    • 10.1.28. Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
    • 10.1.29. Problems with Batteries
    • 10.1.30. Hyundai Kona Takes out a Roof in Canada
    • 10.1.31. Battery Reduction
  • 10.2. Electric Traction Motors
    • 10.2.1. Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
    • 10.2.2. Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
    • 10.2.3. Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
    • 10.2.4. BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 10.2.5. BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 10.2.6. Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
    • 10.2.7. PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 10.2.8. PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
    • 10.2.9. Differences Between PMSM and BLDC
    • 10.2.10. Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM): Working Principle
    • 10.2.11. WRSM Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 10.2.12. WRSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 10.2.13. AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle
    • 10.2.14. AC Induction Motor (ACIM)
    • 10.2.15. AC Induction Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 10.2.16. AC Induction Motor: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 10.2.17. Reluctance Motors
    • 10.2.18. Reluctance Motor: Working Principle
    • 10.2.19. Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
    • 10.2.20. Switched Reluctance Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 10.2.21. Permanent Magnet Assisted Reluctance (PMAR)
    • 10.2.22. PMAR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
  • 10.3. Electric Traction Motors: Summary and Benchmarking Results
    • 10.3.1. Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
    • 10.3.2. Motor Efficiency Comparison
    • 10.3.3. Magnet Price Increase Risk
    • 10.3.4. Multiple Motors: Explained
    • 10.3.5. Lucid Motors: Dual PMSM?
    • 10.3.6. Motor per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions
    • 10.3.7. Electric Traction Motor Technology Forecast 2020-2030
    • 10.3.8. Emerging Motor Technologies
    • 10.3.9. Radial Flux Motors
    • 10.3.10. Axial Flux Motors
    • 10.3.11. Radial Flux vs Axial Flux Motors
    • 10.3.12. Axial Flux Motors: Interesting Players
    • 10.3.13. List of Axial Flux Motor Players
    • 10.3.14. Axial Flux Motors in Aircraft
    • 10.3.15. Siemens
    • 10.3.16. AVID EVO at 10 kW/kg
    • 10.3.17. Avid Landing Large Orders
    • 10.3.18. Magnax
    • 10.3.19. Yasa Motors
    • 10.3.20. Case-studies
    • 10.3.21. In-Wheel Motors
    • 10.3.22. Risks and Opportunities for In-wheel Motors
    • 10.3.23. Risks and Opportunities for In-wheel Motors
    • 10.3.24. Risks and Opportunities for In-Wheel Motors
    • 10.3.25. Reducing Rare-Earth Usage in Electric Motors
    • 10.3.26. Reducing Rare-Earth Usage in Electric Motors
    • 10.3.27. Aluminium vs Copper Windings
    • 10.3.28. Example: SRMs with Aluminium Windings?
    • 10.3.29. Example: SRMs with Aluminium Windings?
    • 10.3.30. Summary and Outlook

11. FORECASTS: OVERVIEW, ASSUMPTIONS, METHODOLOGY

  • 11.1. Forecast Assumptions
  • 11.2. FAQ on the Forecasts
  • 11.3. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air 2015-2041
  • 11.4. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Battery Demand 2015-2041 (TWh)
  • 11.5. Electric Vehicles Land, Sea & Air Market Value 2015-2041 ($ trillion)
  • 11.6. Global Car Sales by Powertrain: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, 48V MH, 48V FH 2015-2041 (cars, millions)
  • 11.7. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (two-wheelers, millions)
  • 11.8. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.9. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.10. Electric Two-wheelers by Power Class 2015-2041 ($ billion)
  • 11.11. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: % of Global Car Market
  • 11.12. BEV + PHEV Cars 2016-2041: Battery Demand (GWh)
  • 11.13. Electric LCV Market Penetration 2017-2041
  • 11.14. Electric LCV Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV and FCEV)
  • 11.15. Electric LCV Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.16. Electric LCV Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
  • 11.17. MD & HD Truck Market Penetration 2017-2041
  • 11.18. MD & HD Truck Sales 2017-2041 (BEV, PHEV, FCEV)
  • 11.19. Electric MD & HD Truck Battery Demand 2017-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.20. Electric MD & HD Truck Market Value 2017-2041 ($ Billion)
  • 11.21. Electric Bus Sales 2015-2041 (Thousands)
  • 11.22. Electric Bus Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.23. Electric Bus Market Value 2015-2041 ($ billion)
  • 11.24. Electric Boat & Ship Sales 2015-2041
  • 11.25. Electric Boat & Ship Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.26. Electric Boat & Ship Market Value 2015-2041 ($ Billion)
  • 11.27. Electric Aircraft Market Forecast 2020-2041