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市場調查報告書

電動兩輪車2021-2041

Electric Two-wheelers 2021-2041

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 975917
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 181 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
電動兩輪車2021-2041 Electric Two-wheelers 2021-2041
出版日期: 2020年12月15日內容資訊: 英文 181 Slides
簡介

標題
電動兩輪車2021-2041
中國,印度,印度尼西亞,越南,歐洲,美國和美國的電動踏板車和電動摩托車。

世界要趕上中國需要14年。

在美國和歐洲,城市出行的主要形式是汽車,而在東亞,主要的運輸形式是摩托車,摩托車的擁有和運營成本要便宜得多。摩托車並不總是保持與汽車同等的排放標準,並且可能是高度污染的。在過去的十年中,印度已超過中國,成為世界上最大的摩托車市場,到2020財年,印度在全球5700萬輛汽車中的銷量約為1700萬輛。在全球污染最嚴重的十個城市中,印度有七個是絕非偶然的。當我們聽到來自印度等國家的雄心勃勃的電氣化目標時□□,首要關注的不是汽車的電氣化,而是兩輪車的電氣化,微型交通和公共交通。

本報告介紹並預測了純電動模式的兩輪車,其功率低於4kW( "電動踏板車" ),超過4kW( "電動摩托車" )。雖然4kW以下的兩輪車可能存在外觀或功能上的差異,但如果它們具有純電動模式並且以45kmph的速度行駛,則它們屬於同一類別。此類別與此處未包括的踏板輔助自行車(電動腳踏車)不同,後者通常僅通過踩踏動作即可激活250W電機(在歐洲很受歡迎)。

在中國和印度這兩個最大的市場,電動滑板車的平均價格分別約為420美元和850美元。相比之下,歐洲型號通常售價為幾千美元。在亞洲,趨勢是電動摩托製造商通過縮小電池尺寸和犧牲續航里程,以預先的價格平價設計和銷售兩輪車。隨著兩輪車電池成本的下降,性能的提高而不是前期價格的下降。通常,在美國和歐洲,情況恰恰相反。

對於電動摩托車,可尋址市場不是亞洲的大批量城市環境。取而代之的是環保意識的摩托車迷好奇地嘗試電動模型,也許同時又將哈雷戴維森放在車庫中。在美國和歐洲,> 250cc摩托車的用戶正在減少,而電動摩托車市場僅由少數參與者組成。在美國,摩托車並不是因為滿足核心的出行需求而被駕駛:在美國,出行之王是汽車,大多數人可以負擔得起,並且將其作為主要的運輸方式。實際上,在美國,摩托車主要是為了娛樂而騎乘,並且是生活方式的一部分。反過來,由於帶有 "大煙斗" 的懷舊和生活方式,這使得電動摩托車的銷售更加困難。

該報告進一步探討了實現電動兩輪車的核心技術。在亞洲,用於兩輪車的鉛酸電池有一個普遍的轉變,鉛酸電池目前以低成本為主導,但毒性很高且不能安全處置。隨著鋰離子電池的過渡,在諸如印度這樣的國家,由於夏季45攝氏度的高溫,以及在充電或居住或在家中或工作時將車輛停在炎熱的陽光下的文化,這給挑戰帶來了挑戰。市場領導者正在與電池供應商合作設計化學物質,以幫助解決此問題。

該報告還涉及牽引電機技術;這裡的解決方案從在加利福尼亞設計的定制創新型永磁同步電動機到從中國製造和進口的現成的無刷直流解決方案,都大不相同。

此報告中提供的預測和數據摘要:

  • 電動兩輪車的銷售量(按功率等級和地區劃分)2015-2041
  • 電動兩輪車電池需求(GWh),按功率等級和地區劃分2015-2041
  • 電動二輪車電池需求量(GWh),按鉛酸/鋰離子電池分列的地區2015-2041
  • 電動兩輪車的收入類別(按功率等級和地區劃分)2015-2041
  • 電動兩輪車公司在印度的市場份額
  • 中國鋰離子電動兩輪車原始設備製造商的市場份額
  • 美國電動摩托車製造商的市場份額

預測的地區是:中國,印度,印度尼西亞,越南,歐盟+英國,美國,其他國家/地區。

功率等級為: <4kW(電動踏板車)和> 4kW(電動摩托車)。

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目錄

1。執行摘要

  • 1.1。電動兩輪車的重要性
  • 1.2。電動兩輪車分類
  • 1.3。電動兩輪車2015-2041年銷售
  • 1.4。2015-2041年鋰離子和鉛酸電池需求(GWh)
  • 1.5。電池化學選擇
  • 1.6。2015-2041年電動兩輪車市場規模(十億美元)
  • 1.7。2020年的錢在哪裡,2041年的錢在哪裡
< h4> 2。簡介
  • 2.1。電動車條款
  • 2.2。電動汽車:基本原理
  • 2.3。低維護
  • 2.4。電動兩輪車:功率等級
  • 2.5。兩輪車與其他電動車
  • 2.6。電動輪電壓特性
  • 2.7。電動兩輪車超過4kW
  • 2.8。電動兩輪車:駕駛員
  • 2.9。高污染和石油進口推動電氣化
  • 2.10。電動兩輪車:駕駛員
  • 2.11。沒有噪音:好還是壞?
  • 2.12。電動摩托車性能
  • 2.13。電動兩輪車的障礙
  • 2.14。化石燃料禁令:解釋
  • 2.15。官方或立法的化石燃料禁令
  • 2.16。非官方,起草或擬議的化石燃料禁令
  • 2.17。揭穿電動汽車神話:排放只是轉向發電?
  • 2.18。混合動力兩輪車
  • 2.19。混合動力兩輪車:歷史性失敗
  • 2.20。本田:PCX混合動力滑板車

3。中國

  • 3.1。汽車銷售和兩輪車銷售在中國
  • 3.2。中國兩輪車有何不同
  • 3.3。在中國推動電氣化的是什麼?
  • 3.4。法規歷史和安全問題
  • 3.5。中國現行的兩輪機動車政策(2019年4月)
  • 3.6。中國的E2W禁令
  • 3.7。E2 W在中國:黨的終結
  • 3.8。中國電動兩輪車中鋰離子電池的興起
  • 3.9。鉛酸產量為何上升?
  • 3.10。鋰離子OEM市場份額
  • 3.11。中國電動兩輪車價格

4。印度

  • 4.1。印度:交通運輸多樣性
  • 4.2。印度的流動趨勢
  • 4.3。世界上最大的摩托車市場
  • 4.4。排放法規
  • 4.5。20財年摩托市場份額
  • 4.6。高污染和石油進口推動電氣化
  • 4.7。新德里:污染等於每天50支香煙
  • 4.8。印度摩托市場預測
  • 4.9。印度:歷史悠久的E2W市場增長
  • 4.10。印度:電動汽車政策有缺陷
  • 4.11。FY19的FAME:低速衝擊
  • 4.12。電氣化產品混亂
  • 4.13。電動OEM市場份額
  • 4.14。鋰離子在印度的興起
  • 4.15。印度的超級工廠
  • 4.16。印度鋰離子電池組化學和價格預測
  • 4.17。績效平價
  • 4.18。英雄電氣模型
  • 4。19.印度的電動汽車初創企業列表
  • 4.20。ther能量
  • 4.21。電子動感
  • 4.22。22馬達-流量
  • 4.23。哈雷戴維森失敗
  • 4.24。Bajaj Auto Chetak
  • 4.25。IDTechEx門戶配置文件

5。美國

  • 5.1。□他美國摩托市場
  • 5.2。美國電動摩托車預測
  • 5.3。電動兩輪車的激勵措施
  • 5.4。美國的零排放摩托車
  • 5.5。美國電動摩托車OEM市場份額
  • 5.6。美國的電動踏板車
  • 5.7。GenZ e
  • 5.8。加利福尼亞的電動摩托車
  • 5.9。零摩托車
  • 5.10。零摩托車技術
  • 5.11。增加電池容量
  • 5.12。停滯不前的行業增長的新來源
  • 5.13。阿爾塔汽車:警示故事

6。歐洲

  • 6.1。歐洲摩托車市場
  • 6.2。歐洲兩輪車分類
  • 6.3。歐洲歷史性電動兩輪車銷售
  • 6.4。2015-2041年歐洲兩輪電動車預測
  • 6.5。戈韋奇
  • 6.6。Vespa Elettrica
  • 6.7。金科
  • 6.8。法雷奧的48V踏板車動力總成
  • 6.9。大陸集團的48V踏板車動力總成
  • 6.10。寶馬C Evolution
  • 6.11。伏打
  • 6.12。電動運動
  • 6.13。能源公司
  • 6.14。IV電氣
  • 6.15。韓國電信

7。東南亞

  • 7.1。印度尼西亞:歷史性的摩托車銷售
  • 7.2。印度尼西亞:電動兩輪車預測
  • 7.3。印度尼西亞:案例研究
  • 7.4。加蘭辛多
  • 7.5。印度尼西亞:本田飛行員
  • 7.6。越南:歷史悠久的摩托車銷售
  • 7.7。越南:Takuda Motor

8。其餘世界市場

  • 8.1。台灣:歷史悠久的摩托車銷售
  • 8.2。五郎郎
  • 8.3。電池交換
  • 8.4。中國汽車公司
  • 8.5。Kymco(與Gogoro相比)

9。能源存儲

  • 9.1。鋰離子
    • 9.1.1。什麼是鋰離子電池?
    • 9.1.2。電池困境
    • 9.1.3。鋰電池家族樹
    • 9.1.4。超過一種鋰離子電池
    • 9.1.5。陰極性能比較
    • 9.1.6。矽基陽極的承諾
    • 9.1.7。矽的現實
    • 9.1.8。矽:增量步驟
    • 9.1.9。單元格中有什麼?
    • 9.1.10。惰性材料會對能量密度產生負面影響
    • 9.1.11。商業電池包裝技術
    • 9.1.12。商業細胞幾何結構的比較
    • 9.1.13。電動兩輪車電池
    • 9.1.14。法拉西斯
  • 9.2。燃料電池
    • 9.2.1。質子交換膜燃料電池
    • 9.2.2。燃料電池效率低下和冷卻方法
    • 9.2.3。燃料電池的挑戰
    • 9.2.4。灰氫
    • 9.2.5。案例研究:氫氣成本
    • 9.2.6。基礎設施成本
    • 9.2.7。美國的燃料電池充電基礎設施
    • 9.2.8。每英里燃油成本:FCEV,BEV ,內燃
    • 9.2.9。燃料電池電動兩輪車

10。電動機

  • 10.1。牽引電機:簡介
  • 10.2。無刷直流電動機(BLDC):工作原理
  • 10.3。BLDC電機:優勢與劣勢
  • 10.4。BLDC Motors:基準評分
  • 10.5。永磁同步電動機(PMSM):工作原理
  • 10.6。PMSM:優勢與劣勢
  • 10.7。PMSM:基準評分
  • 10.8。永磁輔助磁阻(PMAR)
  • 10.9。PMAR Motors:基準評分
  • 10.10。牽引電機結構比較及優點
  • 10.11。電機效率比較
  • 10.12。磁鐵價格上漲風險
  • 10.13。兩輪車的電機技術
  • 10.14。電動兩輪車組件開發人員
  • 10.15。摩托車有獨特的要求
  • 10.16。電動摩托車
  • 10.17。Magalec:賽車用電動機
  • 10.18。電動機市場份額概述(2019)

11。預測:方法論,假設,數據

  • 11.1。預測假設
  • 11.2。預測方法
  • 11.3。預測常見問題
  • 11.4。電動兩輪車銷量2015-2041
  • 11.5。2015-2041年各地區的單位預測數據
  • 11.6。2015-2041年鋰離子和鉛酸電池需求(GWh)
  • 11.7。2015-2041年GWh預測數據
  • 11.8。2015-2041年鋰離子和鉛酸GWh預測數據
  • 11.9。2015-2041年電動兩輪車市場規模(十億美元)
  • 11.10。$億美元的預測數據2015年至2041年
目錄
Product Code: ISBN 9781913899257

Title:
Electric Two-wheelers 2021-2041
Electric scooters & electric motorcycles in China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Europe, US and RoW.

It takes 14 years for the world to catch up with China.

While in the US and Europe the primary form of urban mobility is the car, in East Asia the dominant form of transportation is the motorcycle, which is much cheaper to own and run. Motorcycles are not always held to equivalent emissions standards as cars and can be highly polluting. In the past decade, India has overtaken China to become the world's largest motorcycle market, selling roughly 17 million in fiscal year 2020 in a global market of 57 million. It is no coincidence that India has seven out of the world's top ten most polluting cities. When we hear ambitious electrification targets from countries like India, it not the electrification of cars, but that of two-wheelers, micro-mobility and public transport which is the primary focus.

This report addresses and forecasts two-wheelers with pure electric modes under 4kW ('electric scooters') and over 4kW ('electric motorcycles'). While cosmetic or functional differences can exist for two-wheelers under 4kW, they belong to the same class if they have pure electric modes and travel under 45kmph. This category is distinct from pedal-assist bicycles (pedelecs), not included here, which typically have 250W motors activated only by pedalling action (popular in Europe).

The average price for the electric scooter is roughly the equivalent of $420 and $850 in China and India, respectively, the two largest markets. In contrast, European models are typically sold for a few thousand dollars. In Asia, the trend is for electric moto makers to design and sell two-wheelers at upfront price parity by downsizing the batteries and sacrificing range. As battery costs fall for two-wheelers, it is performance that increases, rather than upfront price decreasing. Generally, the opposite is true in the US and Europe.

For electric motorcycles, the addressable markets are not high-volume urban environments in Asia. It is instead environmentally conscious moto enthusiasts curious to try electric models out, perhaps whilst keeping a Harley Davidson safe in the garage. Users of > 250cc motorcycles are declining in the US and Europe, and the electric motorcycle market is made up of only a small number of players. In the US, motorcycles are not driven because they meet a core mobility need: the king of mobility in the US is the car, which most can afford and choose as their primary transport mode above all else. Indeed, motorcycles in the US are predominantly ridden for enjoyment and as part of a lifestyle choice; this in turn makes it harder to sell the electric motorcycle, because of the nostalgia and lifestyle associated with 'loud pipes'.

The report further looks at the core technologies enabling electric two-wheelers. There is a general transition away from lead-acid batteries for two-wheelers in Asia, which currently dominate for low cost but are highly toxic and not disposed of safely. With the transition to Li-ion comes challenges in countries like India because of the high temperatures of 45 degrees C in the summer, and the culture to leave vehicles parked out in the hot sun when charging or residing at home or work. Market leaders are working with battery suppliers to design chemistries to help solve this issue.

The report also addresses electric traction motor technologies; here solutions vary dramatically from custom, innovative permanent magnet synchronous motors designed in California, to off the shelf brushless DC solutions made and imported from China.

Summary of forecasts and data provided in this report:

  • Electric two-wheeler unit sales by power class and region 2015-2041
  • Electric two-wheeler battery demand (GWh) by power class and region 2015-2041
  • Electric two-wheeler battery demand (GWh) by Lead-acid / Li-ion split and region 2015-2041
  • Electric two-wheeler revenue generation by power class and region 2015-2041
  • Market shares of electric two-wheeler companies in India
  • Market shares of Li-ion electric two-wheeler OEMs in China
  • Market shares of electric motorcycle makers in the US

Forecast regions are: China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, EU + UK, US, RoW.

Power classes are: < 4kW (electric scooters) and > 4kW (electric motorcycles).

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. The Importance of Electric Two-wheelers
  • 1.2. Electric Two-wheeler Classification
  • 1.3. Electric Two-wheelers Unit Sales 2015-2041
  • 1.4. Li-ion & Lead-acid Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 1.5. Battery Chemistry Choices
  • 1.6. Electric Two-wheelers Market Size 2015-2041 ($ billion)
  • 1.7. Where's the Money in 2020, Where it Will be in 2041

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Electric Vehicle Terms
  • 2.2. Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
  • 2.3. Low Maintenance
  • 2.4. Electric Two-wheelers: Power Classes
  • 2.5. Two-wheelers vs. Other Electric Vehicles
  • 2.6. Electric Two-wheeler Voltage Characteristics
  • 2.7. Electric Two-wheelers Over 4kW
  • 2.8. Electric Two-wheelers: Drivers
  • 2.9. High Pollution and Oil Imports Drive Electrification
  • 2.10. Electric Two-wheelers: Drivers
  • 2.11. No noise: good or bad?
  • 2.12. Electric Motorcycle Performance
  • 2.13. Barriers for Electric Two-wheelers
  • 2.14. Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
  • 2.15. Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
  • 2.16. Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
  • 2.17. Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?
  • 2.18. Hybrid Two-wheelers
  • 2.19. Hybrid Two-wheelers: Historic Failures
  • 2.20. Honda: PCX Hybrid Scooter

3. CHINA

  • 3.1. Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China
  • 3.2. How Chinese Two-wheelers are Different
  • 3.3. What's Driving Electrification in China?
  • 3.4. Regulation History & Safety Concerns
  • 3.5. China's Current Two-wheeler Policy (April 2019)
  • 3.6. E2W Bans in China
  • 3.7. E2W in China: The Party's Over
  • 3.8. Rise of Li-ion in Chinese Electric Two-wheelers
  • 3.9. Why is Lead-acid Production Rising?
  • 3.10. Li-ion OEM Market Share
  • 3.11. Chinese Electric Two-wheeler Prices

4. INDIA

  • 4.1. India: Transportation Diversity
  • 4.2. Mobility Trends in India
  • 4.3. The World's Largest Moto Market
  • 4.4. Emissions Regulation
  • 4.5. Incumbent Moto Market Shares FY20
  • 4.6. High Pollution and Oil Imports Drive Electrification
  • 4.7. New Delhi: Pollution Equal to 50 Cigarettes a Day
  • 4.8. India Moto Market Forecast
  • 4.9. India: Historic E2W Market Growth
  • 4.10. India: Flawed Electric Vehicle Policy
  • 4.11. FAME in FY19: Low-speed Impact
  • 4.12. Electrification Target Confusion
  • 4.13. Electric OEM Market Shares
  • 4.14. Rise of Li-ion in India
  • 4.15. Gigafactories in India
  • 4.16. India Li-ion Battery Pack Chemistry & Price Forecast
  • 4.17. Performance Parity
  • 4.18. Hero Electric Models
  • 4.19. List of EV Startups in India
  • 4.20. Ather Energy
  • 4.21. E-motion - Surge
  • 4.22. 22Motors - Flow
  • 4.23. Harley Davidson Failure
  • 4.24. Bajaj Auto Chetak
  • 4.25. IDTechEx Portal Profiles

5. US

  • 5.1. The US Moto Market
  • 5.2. US Electric Motorcycle Forecast
  • 5.3. Incentives for Electric Two-wheelers
  • 5.4. Zero-emission Motorcycles in the US
  • 5.5. US Electric Motorcycle OEM Market Shares
  • 5.6. Electric Scooters in the US
  • 5.7. GenZe
  • 5.8. Electric Motorcycles in California
  • 5.9. Zero Motorcycles
  • 5.10. Zero Motorcycle's Technology
  • 5.11. Increasing Battery Capacity
  • 5.12. New Sources of Growth in a Stagnating Industry
  • 5.13. Alta Motors: A Cautionary Tale

6. EUROPE

  • 6.1. The European Moto Market
  • 6.2. European Two-wheeler Classification
  • 6.3. Historic Electric Two-wheeler Sales in Europe
  • 6.4. European Electric Two-wheeler Forecast 2015-2041
  • 6.5. Govecs
  • 6.6. Vespa Elettrica
  • 6.7. Kymco
  • 6.8. Valeo's 48V Scooter Powertrain
  • 6.9. Continental's 48V Scooter Powertrain
  • 6.10. BMW C Evolution
  • 6.11. Volta
  • 6.12. Electric Motion
  • 6.13. Energica
  • 6.14. IV Electrics
  • 6.15. KTM

7. SOUTH-EAST ASIA

  • 7.1. Indonesia: Historic Motorcycle Sales
  • 7.2. Indonesia: Electric Two-wheeler Forecast
  • 7.3. Indonesia: Case Study
  • 7.4. Garansindo
  • 7.5. Indonesia: Honda Pilot
  • 7.6. Vietnam: Historic Motorcycle Sales
  • 7.7. Vietnam: Takuda Motor

8. REST OF WORLD MARKETS

  • 8.1. Taiwan: Historic Motorcycle Sales
  • 8.2. Gogoro
  • 8.3. Battery Swapping
  • 8.4. China Motor Corp
  • 8.5. Kymco (versus Gogoro)

9. ENERGY STORAGE

  • 9.1. Li-ion
    • 9.1.1. What is a Li-ion battery?
    • 9.1.2. The Battery Trilemma
    • 9.1.3. Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
    • 9.1.4. More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
    • 9.1.5. Cathode Performance Comparison
    • 9.1.6. The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
    • 9.1.7. The Reality of Silicon
    • 9.1.8. Silicon: Incremental Steps
    • 9.1.9. What is in a Cell?
    • 9.1.10. Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
    • 9.1.11. Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
    • 9.1.12. Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
    • 9.1.13. Electric Two-wheeler Cells
    • 9.1.14. Farasis
  • 9.2. Fuel Cells
    • 9.2.1. Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells
    • 9.2.2. Fuel Cell Inefficiency and Cooling Methods
    • 9.2.3. Challenges for Fuel Cells
    • 9.2.4. Grey Hydrogen
    • 9.2.5. Case Study: Hydrogen Costs
    • 9.2.6. Infrastructure Costs
    • 9.2.7. Fuel Cell Charging Infrastructure in the US
    • 9.2.8. Fuel Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, internal-combustion
    • 9.2.9. Fuel Cell Electric Two-wheelers

10. ELECTRIC MOTORS

  • 10.1. Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
  • 10.2. Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
  • 10.3. BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
  • 10.4. BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
  • 10.5. Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
  • 10.6. PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
  • 10.7. PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
  • 10.8. Permanent Magnet Assisted Reluctance (PMAR)
  • 10.9. PMAR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
  • 10.10. Comparison of Traction Motor Construction and Merits
  • 10.11. Motor Efficiency Comparison
  • 10.12. Magnet Price Increase Risk
  • 10.13. Motor Technologies in Two-wheelers
  • 10.14. Component developers for electric two wheelers
  • 10.15. Motorcycles Have Unique Requirements
  • 10.16. Electric Motorcycles
  • 10.17. Magalec: electric motors for racing bikes
  • 10.18. Overview of Electric Motor Market Share (2019)

11. FORECASTS: METHODOLOGY, ASSUMPTIONS, DATA

  • 11.1. Forecast Assumptions
  • 11.2. Forecast Methodology
  • 11.3. FAQ on the Forecasts
  • 11.4. Electric Two-wheelers Unit Sales 2015-2041
  • 11.5. Unit Forecast Data by Region 2015-2041
  • 11.6. Li-ion & Lead-acid Battery Demand 2015-2041 (GWh)
  • 11.7. GWh Forecast Data 2015-2041
  • 11.8. Li-ion & Lead-Acid GWh Forecast Data 2015-2041
  • 11.9. Electric Two-wheelers Market Size 2015-2041 ($ billion)
  • 11.10. $ Billion Forecast Data 2015-2041