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市場調查報告書

48V全混合動力/ 48V輕度混合動力/ 48V BEV市場/技術路線圖(2021-2041)

48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Cars: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 961311
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 288 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
48V全混合動力/ 48V輕度混合動力/ 48V BEV市場/技術路線圖(2021-2041) 48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Cars: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041
出版日期: 2020年09月23日內容資訊: 英文 288 Slides
簡介

到2032年,預計48V混合動力汽車的銷量將達到2000萬輛。快速的技術發展正在加速銷售增長。隨著特斯拉的崛起,更嚴格的排放法規以及BEV開發的延遲,製造商被迫通過混合使用現有的內燃機車輛做出回應。

本報告調查了全球48V全混合動力,48V中度混合動力和48V BEV市場,以及向48V過渡,技術路線圖,48V全混合動力功能,優缺點,設計和新型冠狀病毒。總結了對傳染病(COVID-19)和其他市場影響因素的分析,相關公司的努力,未從事發展的公司及其原因以及未來前景的分析。

第1章執行摘要/概述

第2章簡介

  • 電動汽車市場和選擇:大局
  • 過渡到48V
  • 動力總成競賽
  • 48V輕度混合動力車
  • 美好的未來:可持續發展
  • 汽車:為什麼48VMH是主要焦點
  • 48V混合:SOFT報告等。

第3章48V全混合動力汽車:定位/技術/初始引入操作員

  • 48V全混合動力:特性/優點/缺點
  • 48V全混合動力汽車設計
  • 製造商
    • ChangAn Motors China
    • FAW China
    • Skoda
    • Volkswagen
  • 48V MH/FH部件示例/系統開發人員
    • Borg Warner USA
    • Continental (Vitesco)
    • Ricardo
    • Mahle
    • Valeo
  • 48V插電式PHEV的可能性

第4章48V溫和混合動力汽車:40個製造商和6個未製造的原因

  • Alfa Romeo
  • Aston Martin Lagonda
  • Audi
  • Bentley (VW Group)
  • BMW
  • Buick (GM)
  • Cadillac (GM)
  • Chery
  • Chevrolet (GM)
  • FCA (Stellantis)
  • Fiat (Stellantis)
  • Ford
  • Geely China (Volvo, Proton, Lotus, LEVC taxis, Lotus etc)
  • General Motors
  • Hyundai Kia Automotive Group
  • Jaguar Land Rover (Tata Motors)
  • Jeep (Stellantis)
  • Kia Motors
  • Lamborghini (VW Group)
  • Mahindra & Mahindra
  • Maruti Suzuki
  • Mazda
  • Mercedes-Benz
  • MG Morris Garages
  • Maserati (Stellantis)
  • Opel
  • Porsche
  • PSA (Stellantis)
  • RAM (Stellantis)
  • Renault France
  • Rolls Royce Motors (BMW)
  • SAIC-GM
  • SEAT (VW Group)
  • Skoda (VW Group)
  • Subaru
  • Suzuki
  • SsangYong (Mahindra and Mahindra)
  • Tata Motors
  • Volkswagen
  • Volvo Motors (Geely)
  • 6家公司不致力於48V混合動力汽車的理由

第5章48VMH軌道和總線

  • 製造商
    • Daimler
    • General Motors
    • Renault
    • Volvo Group
  • 程序
    • Class 8 trucks
    • US DOE Supertruck program
  • 1級供應商
    • AVID
    • Eaton

第6章48V混合動力的新組件

  • REM (Rotating Electric Machines):e-machines
  • 向多功能旋轉機發展
  • Borg Warner,Bosch,Federal Mogul,Valeo和其他視圖
  • 48V混合蓄電池/DC-DC轉換器
目錄

Title:
48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Cars: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041
Post COVID, capacitor assisted batteries, PV wrap, next rotating machines, parts, systems, features, trucks, buses.

"A massive 20 million 48V hybrid cars will be sold in 2032."

The new IDTechEx report, "48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Vehicles: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041" is a complete rewrite of the annual IDTechEx reports on this subject because the technology is now improving radically, powering rapid sales increase. Car companies have been caught out by Tesla. Many are waking up late to the severity of impending penalties for making too many polluting vehicles. They now race to the end game of battery electric but that takes eye-watering sums of money and delay so they buy time with adaptation of their existing internal combustion-only vehicles.

The quick upgrade is replacing the alternator with something cleverer and adding a second battery to create a "48V mild hybrid" meeting 2025 emissions laws and creating 15% fuel saving. IDTechEx scopes 40 companies doing that with a many existing models. 48V adds about $1200 to cost - not a lot more than the less-effective clean-up equipment that would otherwise have to be added to conventional cars to keep them legal but the story does not end there.

To the excitement of all involved, a pipeline of easy, incremental further improvements await and IDTechEx proposes more. Later, some "48V hybrids" may even replace high voltage hybrids by costing 10% less. Pop in an e-axle and a mild hybrid becomes that full hybrid with excellent 40+km silent, all-electric range, even engine-off active cruising, electrically maintaining speed. All in very easy incremental steps. Indeed, some of the new parts can be used in the rocketing 10 million-units-yearly market for small 48V BEVs where they now say "48V is the new 12V".

Emissions and fuel economy of 48V full hybrids will improve 20%. Evolved 48V hybrids will grab a huge 20% of the light vehicle market, peak at around $500 billion and be around longer than originally thought - 2035.

For example, they will work without the lead-acid battery, use a smaller, non-flammable 48V battery and, with the General Motors COVACS breakthrough, then replace the two batteries and the converter with a single cheaper, better device. IDTechEx has identified an opportunity for $10 billion yearly sales of solar wrap that can make 10% more electricity to multiply such delights as sophisticated driver assistance, heated seats and predictive suspension.

There is therefore an urgent need for a post COVID report on all this based on ongoing PhD level interviews worldwide in local languages, deep technical insights and presentations by the companies involved. The new IDTechEx report, "48V Full Hybrid, 48V Mild Hybrid, 48V BEV Vehicles: Markets, Technology Roadmap 2021-2041" is just that. Little wonder that it now runs to 300 densely packed pages.

This is analysis not evangelism. It explains why six manufacturers disagree, how sales will be dented by COVID, why the smallest cars often have better options and when BEVs kill all 48V hybrids. It shares higher forecasts from other analysts explaining why IDTechEx thinks they are wrong.

Replete with new infograms, the Executive Summary and Conclusions gives the essentials - basics, 46 primary conclusions, ten-year forecasts by number, unit value, market value, region, by 48V mild vs 48V full hybrid and by rotating machine position. Background forecasts show COVID effect on the car market. See a 20 year 48V technology roadmap. Understand relevance of components to 48V BEVs. The Introduction give the emissions background, powertrain choices and data. It explains the move to 48V, presenting the IDTechEx survey on architecture attitudes and timescales, windows of opportunity, advantages, disadvantages, SOFT report.

Chapter 3 covers the imminent 48V full hybrid cars: positioning, technology, early adopters. Chapter 4 is the longest chapter in the report because it analyses 40 manufacturers of 48V mild hybrid cars and six saying no. That takes 98 pages because it includes many ghost diagrams, analyses, interviews, predictions and even presentations from the companies involved. Chapter 5 appraises the opportunity in buses and trucks, Chapter 6 analyses new 48V components such as GM COVACS, solar wrap, next rotating machines and batteries, supercapacitors. No other report comes close.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose and methodology of this report
  • 1.2. Primary conclusions: Markets
  • 1.3. 48V hybrid market drivers
  • 1.4. Regional trends
    • 1.4.1. 43 examples of 48V hybrid brands and regions targeted
    • 1.4.2. Car manufacturer 48V hybrid thrust and demand by region
    • 1.4.3. Unit sales of 48V hybrid cars % by region 2019-2041 after effect of COVID
  • 1.5. Primary conclusions: Technology
    • 1.5.1. 48V technology roadmap 2021-2041
    • 1.5.2. Huge scope for simplification and integration
    • 1.5.3. Design and impact
    • 1.5.4. Mild vs full hybrid
    • 1.5.5. Engine
    • 1.5.6. Energy storage
    • 1.5.7. DC-DC inverter
    • 1.5.8. Start-motor-generator and motor-generator positioning
    • 1.5.9. Electrification possible with 48V mild hybrid powertrains: examples
    • 1.5.10. 48V powertrains in context of others
    • 1.5.11. Rising ambitions: Comparison of powertrain benefits
    • 1.5.12. Can 48V full hybrids beat HV full hybrids?
    • 1.5.13. 48V hybrid car components useful for 48V pure electric vehicles?
  • 1.6. Primary conclusions: Manufacturers
  • 1.7. Primary conclusions: Tier one suppliers
  • 1.8. Forecasts
    • 1.8.1. Unit sales of 48V hybrid cars mild vs full hybrid 2019-2041 global number million after effect of COVID
    • 1.8.2. Unit price of 48V cars (US$) 2019-2041 after effect of COVID
    • 1.8.3. Market value of 48V cars (US$ billion) 2019-2041 after effect of COVID
    • 1.8.4. 48V hybrids 2019-2041 global market number share % by rotating electric machine REM position
    • 1.8.5. Pre-COVID forecasts to compare
    • 1.8.6. Background: IDTechEx car market analysis post COVID
    • 1.8.7. Battery electric vehicles that are often 48V (number thousand) 2019-2030
    • 1.8.8. Battery electric vehicles that are often 48V (market value $ billion) 2019-2030
    • 1.8.9. Market forecast for cars worldwide (number thousand) - 2015-2041
    • 1.8.10. 48V hybrid influence on supercapacitor market by application $ billion 2021-2041
    • 1.8.11. Upside forecast of global supercapacitor market by application $ billion 2025-2041

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Electric vehicle markets and options: the big picture
  • 2.2. The move to 48V
  • 2.3. 48V alone - abandoning dual 12V + 48V car systems
  • 2.4. Windows of opportunity for launch of 48V MH car variants
  • 2.5. Powertrain competition 2021-2041
  • 2.6. Powertrain competition for 48V hybrids
  • 2.7. Many ongoing incremental improvements at modest cost
  • 2.8. 48V mild hybrid cars
    • 2.8.1. Basic architecture
    • 2.8.2. P0 position for 48V mild hybrid
    • 2.8.3. 48V mild hybrid evolution, benefits and disadvantages
    • 2.8.4. Hybrid options by functionality: AVL view of 48V MH in context
    • 2.8.5. Option of replacing mechanical and hydraulic devices
    • 2.8.6. Second generation hybrid powertrain by Delphi
    • 2.8.7. Overstated mild hybrid benefits against HV HEV
  • 2.9. Surprisingly future proof: 48V hybrid improvement continues through 2030
    • 2.9.1. 48V hybrid technology improvements ahead - Functions vs architectures
    • 2.9.2. Launch dates of 48V MH and 48V FH vehicles
  • 2.10. Why cars are the main focus of 48V MH
  • 2.11. SOFT report for 48V hybrids

3. 48V FULL HYBRID CARS: POSITIONING, TECHNOLOGY, EARLY ADOPTERS

  • 3.1. 48V full hybrid features, advantages disadvantages
  • 3.2. Impacting but not quickly eliminating 48VMH and HV HEV
  • 3.3. Design of a 48V full hybrid vehicle
    • 3.3.1. Market positioning and technology choices
    • 3.3.2. Preferred 48V FH device locations
    • 3.3.3. 48V full hybrid with maximum benefits
  • 3.4. Manufacturers launching first 48V full hybrid cars
    • 3.4.1. ChangAn Motors China
    • 3.4.2. FAW China 48V full hybrid
    • 3.4.3. Skoda: 48V full hybrid as mild hybrid upgrade
    • 3.4.4. Volkswagen
  • 3.5. Examples of 48V MH and FH parts, systems developers
    • 3.5.1. Borg Warner USA
    • 3.5.2. Continental (Vitesco) Germany
    • 3.5.3. Ricardo UK
    • 3.5.4. Mahle Germany
    • 3.5.5. Valeo France
  • 3.6. 48V Plug-in PHEV?

4. 40 MANUFACTURERS OF 48V MILD HYBRID CARS ANALYSED AND SIX SAYING NO: 92 PAGES

  • 4.1. Introduction
  • 4.2. Alfa Romeo Italy
  • 4.3. Aston Martin Lagonda UK
  • 4.4. Audi Germany
  • 4.5. Bentley (VW Group) UK
  • 4.6. BMW Germany
  • 4.7. Buick (GM) USA
  • 4.8. Cadillac (GM) USA
  • 4.9. Chery China
  • 4.10. Chevrolet (GM) China
  • 4.11. FCA (Stellantis) USA/ Italy
  • 4.12. Fiat (Stellantis) Italy
  • 4.13. Ford USA, Europe
  • 4.14. Geely China (Volvo, Proton, Lotus, LEVC taxis, Lotus etc)
  • 4.15. General Motors USA
  • 4.16. Hyundai Kia Automotive Group Korea
  • 4.17. Jaguar Land Rover (Tata Motors) UK
  • 4.18. Jeep (Stellantis) USA
  • 4.19. Kia Motors Korea
  • 4.20. Lamborghini (VW Group) Italy
  • 4.21. Mahindra & Mahindra India
  • 4.22. Maruti Suzuki India
  • 4.23. Mazda Japan
  • 4.24. Mercedes-Benz Germany
  • 4.25. MG Morris Garages India
  • 4.26. Maserati (Stellantis) Italy
  • 4.27. Opel Germany
  • 4.28. Porsche Germany
  • 4.29. PSA (Stellantis) France
  • 4.30. RAM (Stellantis) USA
  • 4.31. Renault France
  • 4.32. Rolls Royce Motors (BMW) UK
  • 4.33. SAIC-GM China
  • 4.34. SEAT (VW Group) Spain
  • 4.35. Skoda (VW Group) Czech Republic
  • 4.36. Subaru Japan
  • 4.37. Suzuki Japan
  • 4.38. SsangYong (Mahindra and Mahindra) Korea
  • 4.39. Tata Motors India
  • 4.40. Volkswagen Germany
  • 4.41. Volvo Motors (Geely) Sweden
  • 4.42. Six manufacturers with no 48V hybrid priority: reasons

5. 48V MH TRUCKS AND BUSES

  • 5.1. Truck and bus manufacturers involved
    • 5.1.1. Daimler Germany
    • 5.1.2. General Motors USA
    • 5.1.3. Renault France
    • 5.1.4. Volvo Group Sweden
  • 5.2. Programs
    • 5.2.1. Class 8 trucks
    • 5.2.2. US DOE Supertruck program
  • 5.3. Tier One suppliers involved
    • 5.3.1. AVID first 48V hybrid truck
    • 5.3.2. Eaton 48V full hybrid truck systems

6. NEW COMPONENTS FOR 48V HYBRIDS

  • 6.1. Rotating electric machines REM: e-machines
    • 6.1.1. Technology choices
    • 6.1.2. Great improvements : example Mercedes
  • 6.2. Evolution to multifunctional rotating machines
  • 6.3. Borg Warner, Bosch, Federal Mogul, Valeo and other views
  • 6.4. Energy storage and DC-DC converters for 48V hybrids
    • 6.4.1. Overview
    • 6.4.2. Li-ion battery improvement for hybrid cars: COSMX
    • 6.4.3. Better batteries and supercapacitors coming: W/kg vs Wh/kg
    • 6.4.4. Supercapacitors
    • 6.4.5. Hybrid Energy Storage Systems HESS
    • 6.4.6. 48V supercapacitor on battery example: Geely and Maxwell Tesla
    • 6.4.7. Capacitor Assisted Battery CAB for 48V hybrids
    • 6.4.8. GM COSMX breakthrough MODACS
    • 6.4.9. Photovoltaic bodywork will be very important for 48V: Toyota, Hyundai etc