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市場調查報告書

先進的電動汽車:2020-2040

Advanced Electric Cars 2020-2040

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 950618
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 204 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
先進的電動汽車:2020-2040 Advanced Electric Cars 2020-2040
出版日期: 2020年07月21日內容資訊: 英文 204 Slides
簡介

在整個汽車行業正在接受重大測試的情況下,電動汽車行業預計將在2040年增長到1.8萬億美元,這是該行業的生命線。

本報告全面調查了全球電動汽車市場,並研究了市場背景和現狀,COVID-19的影響,主要地區和國家的主要趨勢,流行的模型,政策和補貼以及主要趨勢。它總結了實現技術的趨勢,自動駕駛的趨勢以及電動汽車銷售的趨勢和預測。

第1章執行摘要

第2章簡介

第3章中國電動汽車市場

  • 電動汽車銷售預測
  • 汽車銷量下降的六個原因
  • 中國汽車銷量下降:概述
  • 電氣化促進因素
  • 暢銷PHEV車型
  • 新能源汽車的衰落
  • 電動汽車政策
  • 購買補貼
  • 各種政策
  • 電動汽車政策的變化
  • 新能源汽車銷售趨勢

第4章歐洲電動汽車市場

  • 電動汽車銷售預測
  • 電動汽車銷售集中
  • 暢銷PHEV車型
  • 排放標準
  • 支持政策:概述
  • 按國家購買補貼

第5章美國電動汽車市場

  • PHEV預測
  • 暢銷PHEV車型
  • PHEV稅收抵免
  • 電池容量
  • 汽車製造商在稅收抵免方面的進步
  • 國家激勵措施
  • 皮卡車的受歡迎程度
  • 皮卡車:OEM佔有率
  • 電動皮卡車
  • Tesla: Cybertruck
  • Ford: F-150 EV
  • GMC: Hummer EV Electric Super Truck
  • Nikola: Badger
  • Fiat Chrysler: Ram/Jeep pickup electrification?
  • Rivian: R1T
  • Rivian: Skateboard Platform
  • Lordstown Motors: Endurance
  • Workhorse: W-15
  • Bollinger Motors: B2
  • Bollinger Motors: Electric Platform
  • Atlis Motor Vehicles: XT
  • Hercules Electric Vehicles: Alpha
  • Karma Automotive
  • Neuron T.One
  • Electric Pickups: Conclusions

第6章豪華車:分析和電池需求

  • 定義
  • 規格
  • 高級BEV:電池容量
  • 高檔BEV電池預測
  • 高級電池:需求預測

第7章實現技術

  • 鋰離子電池
  • 燃料電池車
  • 電動牽引電機:摘要和比較結果

第8章自動駕駛汽車

  • 自動駕駛汽車的重要性
  • 自動化級別
  • 未來出行場景
  • 自動駕駛測試比賽
  • 傳感器套件的演變:1-5級
  • 自動駕駛汽車=電動汽車?
  • 激光雷達與相機
  • 激光雷達成本
  • 激光雷達,雷達,照相機,超聲波傳感器:比較
  • 所需的攝像機數量:1級-5級

第9章預測和假設

  • 世界汽車銷量:潛在市場
  • 世界汽車銷量預測:方法
  • 短期預測方法
  • EV預測
  • 電池的假設/需求
  • 預測的前提
  • 自動駕駛汽車:假設/不確定性
  • 電池不足的假設
  • 鋰離子電池/電池組價格假設
  • 前提因素
目錄

Title:
Advanced Electric Cars 2020-2040
Electric Car, Fuel Cell Car, Autonomous Car, Peak Car, Enabling Technologies, Li-ion Batteries, Electric Traction Motors.

In an industry shaken to its core, electric cars are the lifeline growing to $1.8 trillion by 2040.

In their simplest form, an electric car consists of an energy storage device powering one electric traction motor, which spins wheels via a transmission. First invented in the 19th century, electric cars ultimately lost the battle to the internal combustion engine, unable to compete with the energy density of gasoline. Over one hundred years later, the Li-ion battery is enabling their meteoric rise as a solution for reducing local emissions and green-house gases.

Once derided as toys, today electric cars with barely 15 years of development offer cutting-edge automotive technology and performance, from sub 2.5 second 0 - 60mph acceleration, to autonomous driving functionality and solar bodywork. Battery-electric vehicles (BEV) are the endgame: zero emissions at point of use and the focus of automotive startups (and China). On the other hand, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) provide a short / mid-term solution, soothing initial fears of range anxiety; PHEVs tend to be the focus of incumbent automakers but are increasingly losing share to BEVs.

Strictly, 'Electric Vehicle' is an umbrella term and technology agnostic to the onboard energy storage device: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), for example, are also 'electric vehicles' in addition to those powered by Li-ion batteries. Their future is discussed in the report, including why they will have a place in some car segments and in non-car categories, but ultimately will not be in mainstream cars.

The aim of this report is to cover the global electric car industry in detail, with a regional breakdown as well as insight into the underlying technologies enabling the transition. The report reveals current trends and the evolution of these technologies, with a view to their impact on the overall car market.

We summarise key sections of the report below.

Forecasts and COVID-19 Impact

In the report we provide long-term forecasts to 2040 for electric passenger cars by region (China, US, UK, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW) and by powertrain (battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel-cell). Forecasts are presented in number of vehicles, battery demand (GWh) and market size ($ billion), with historic data back to 2015.

All forecasts are adjusted to reflect the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic: amid economic uncertainty and unemployment, the auto industry has been one of the hardest hit as car purchases, typically the second largest consumer purchase (the first is a house), are now more difficult to justify for millions of consumers worldwide.

Li-ion Batteries

The report identifies and explains trends in Li-ion batteries for electric cars. For example, nickel content is increasing while cobalt content is decreasing: why is this important for automakers and the overall sustainability of the industry? We also provide historic market data on the Li-ion technology mix based on our database of electric cars in top automarkets: China has phased-out LFP from over half its car market to less than 2% today; why will Tesla contradict this and adopt LFP for Model 3 sales in China?

Electric Traction Motors

All electric motors have the same purpose of converting electrical energy to mechanical energy, but there are many types of motors that derive their names from their construction, principles of operation, or even from the control technique employed on them. In this report we explore why automakers are converging on permanent magnet motors, multiple motors, provide a benchmarking analysis of the different motor types and, finally, an outlook for how we expect the motor market to evolve over the next ten years.

Autonomous Vehicle Technology

We predict the rise of autonomous vehicles will have a profound impact on the global car market as it enables mobility-as-a-service to become cheaper than private-car ownership. The report shows forecasts of autonomous passenger car miles, revealing how this will lead to a fundamental peak-car scenario. We appraise the key underlying technologies such as LiDAR and camera-based systems: is the camera-only approach a high-risk gamble or a winning strategy that will be copied?

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: % of Global Car Market
  • 1.2. BEV + PHEV Cars 2020-2040: Market Size ($ trillion)
  • 1.3. BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: China, Europe, US, RoW
  • 1.4. BEV + PHEV Cars 2015-2040: Battery Demand (GWh)
  • 1.5. Electric Car Forecast: COVID-19 Impact
  • 1.6. BEV, PHEV, FCEV cars 2015-2040 (cars, millions)
  • 1.7. Global Car Market 2020-2040: COVID-19 Impact

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. What is an Electric Vehicle?
  • 2.2. Electric Vehicles: Basic Principle
  • 2.3. Parallel and Series Hybrids: Explained
  • 2.4. Electric Cars: Typical Specs
  • 2.5. What's Driving the Transition to Electric Vehicles?
  • 2.6. What are the Barriers for Electric Vehicles?
  • 2.7. Comparison of Popular Electric Car Models
  • 2.8. Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
  • 2.9. Differences in Short-term and Long-term 'Peak Car'
  • 2.10. Fossil Fuel Bans: Explained
  • 2.11. Official or Legislated Fossil Fuel Bans
  • 2.12. Unofficial, Drafted or Proposed Fossil Fuel Bans
  • 2.13. Debunking EV Myths: Emissions Just Shift to Electricity Generation?

3. ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA

  • 3.1. China Electric Car Forecast 2015-2040 (cars, millions)
  • 3.2. The Rise of Car Sales in China
  • 3.3. Six Reasons for the Fall of Car Sales in China
  • 3.4. Summary of Falling Car Sales in China 2018-2020
  • 3.5. What's Driving Electrification in China?
  • 3.6. China: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
  • 3.7. 2019-2020 New Energy Vehicle Decline
  • 3.8. China EV policy: 2019-2022
  • 3.9. China Purchase Subsidy 2020-2022
  • 3.10. China: Double Credit Policy
  • 3.11. China Electric Vehicle Subsidy Multipliers
  • 3.12. China EV Policy History: 2010-2015
  • 3.13. China EV Policy History: 2016-2018
  • 3.14. New Energy Vehicle Sales by Month, 2016-2020

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN EUROPE

  • 4.1. Europe Electric Car Forecast 2016-2040 (UK, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, RoE)
  • 4.2. Concentration of Electric Car Sales
  • 4.3. Europe: Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
  • 4.4. Europe Emissions Standards
  • 4.5. Europe: Moving from Carrot to Stick
  • 4.6. Overview of Supportive Policy in Europe
  • 4.7. UK Purchase Subsidy
  • 4.8. Germany Purchase Subsidy
  • 4.9. France Purchase Subsidy
  • 4.10. Austria Purchase Subsidy
  • 4.11. Ireland Purchase Subsidy
  • 4.12. Belgium Purchase Subsidy (Ended)
  • 4.13. Spain Purchase Subsidy (Ended)
  • 4.14. Luxembourg Purchase Subsidy
  • 4.15. Other European Purchase Subsidies

5. ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE US

  • 5.1. US Plug-in Car Forecast
  • 5.2. US : Best Selling Plug-in Car Models
  • 5.3. US: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credit
  • 5.4. US Battery Sizes
  • 5.5. Automaker Progress Towards Tax Credits
  • 5.6. US State Incentives
  • 5.7. Pickup Truck Popularity in the US
  • 5.8. US Pickup Trucks: OEM Market Share
  • 5.9. Midsize Pickup Trucks (ICE)
  • 5.10. Full-Size Pickup Trucks (ICE)
  • 5.11. US Pickups Trucks a $132 Billion Dollar Market
  • 5.12. Why Electric Pickup Trucks?
  • 5.13. Tesla: Cybertruck
  • 5.14. Ford: F-150 EV
  • 5.15. GMC: Hummer EV Electric Super Truck
  • 5.16. Nikola: Badger
  • 5.17. Fiat Chrysler: Ram / Jeep pickup electrification?
  • 5.18. Rivian: R1T
  • 5.19. Rivian: Skateboard Platform
  • 5.20. Lordstown Motors: Endurance
  • 5.21. Workhorse: W-15
  • 5.22. Bollinger Motors: B2
  • 5.23. Bollinger Motors: Electric Platform
  • 5.24. Atlis Motor Vehicles: XT
  • 5.25. Hercules Electric Vehicles: Alpha
  • 5.26. Karma Automotive
  • 5.27. Neuron T.One
  • 5.28. Electric Pickups: Conclusions

6. PREMIUM CARS: SEGMENT ANALYSIS AND BATTERY DEMAND

  • 6.1. Definition of 'Premium' Vehicle
  • 6.2. Premium Model Specs
  • 6.3. Premium BEV Battery Sizes
  • 6.4. Premium BEV Battery Forecast
  • 6.5. Premium Battery Demand Estimate

7. ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

  • 7.1. Li-ion Batteries
    • 7.1.1. What is a Li-ion battery?
    • 7.1.2. The Battery Trilemma
    • 7.1.3. Electrochemistry Definitions 1
    • 7.1.4. Electrochemistry Definitions 2
    • 7.1.5. Lithium-based Battery Family Tree
    • 7.1.6. Battery Wish List
    • 7.1.7. More Than One Type of Li-ion battery
    • 7.1.8. NMC: from 111 to 811
    • 7.1.9. Cobalt: Price Volatility
    • 7.1.10. Cathode Performance Comparison
    • 7.1.11. EV Models with NMC 811
    • 7.1.12. 811 Commercialisation Examples
    • 7.1.13. Commercial Anodes: Graphite
    • 7.1.14. The Promise of Silicon-based Anodes
    • 7.1.15. The Reality of Silicon
    • 7.1.16. Silicon: Incremental Steps
    • 7.1.17. What is in a Cell?
    • 7.1.18. Inactive Materials Negatively Affect Energy Density
    • 7.1.19. Commercial Battery Packaging Technologies
    • 7.1.20. Comparison of Commercial Cell Geometries
    • 7.1.21. Cell Geometry Choices: Reason or Random?
    • 7.1.22. What is NCMA?
    • 7.1.23. Historic Li-ion Technology Mix, 2015-2019 (Plug-in Cars)
    • 7.1.24. LFP: Second Coming?
    • 7.1.25. Lithium-based Batteries Beyond Li-ion
    • 7.1.26. Li-ion Chemistry Snapshot: 2020, 2025, 2030
    • 7.1.27. Problems with Batteries
    • 7.1.28. Hyundai Kona Takes out a Roof in Canada
    • 7.1.29. Battery Reduction
  • 7.2. Fuel Cell Cars
    • 7.2.1. Historic Growth of Fuel Cell Cars
    • 7.2.2. BEV, PHEV, FCEV Cars 2015-2040 (cars, millions)
    • 7.2.3. Models overview
    • 7.2.4. BMW Fuel Cell Car
    • 7.2.5. Long-haul Trucking Opportunity?
    • 7.2.6. Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells: Tech Overview
    • 7.2.7. Tech Recap: Fuel Cell Inefficiency and Cooling Methods
    • 7.2.8. Diminishing Opportunity for Fuel Cells in EVs?
    • 7.2.9. Barriers for Fuel Cells
    • 7.2.10. Fuel cost comparison per kWh of propulsion in Norway
    • 7.2.11. Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
    • 7.3. Electric Traction Motors
    • 7.3.1. Electric Traction Motors: Introduction
    • 7.3.2. Brushless DC Motors (BLDC): Working Principle
    • 7.3.3. BLDC Motors: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 7.3.4. BLDC Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 7.3.5. Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSM): Working Principle
    • 7.3.6. PMSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 7.3.7. PMSM: Benchmarking Scores
    • 7.3.8. Differences Between PMSM and BLDC
    • 7.3.9. Wound Rotor Synchronous Motor (WRSM): Working Principle
    • 7.3.10. WRSM Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 7.3.11. WRSM: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 7.3.12. AC Induction Motors (ACIM): Working Principle
    • 7.3.13. AC Induction Motor (ACIM)
    • 7.3.14. AC Induction Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 7.3.15. AC Induction Motor: Advantages, Disadvantages
    • 7.3.16. Reluctance Motors
    • 7.3.17. Reluctance Motor: Working Principle
    • 7.3.18. Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM)
    • 7.3.19. Switched Reluctance Motors: Benchmarking Scores
    • 7.3.20. Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance (PMSR)
    • 7.3.21. PMSR Motors: Benchmarking Scores
  • 7.4. Electric Traction Motors: Summary and Benchmarking Results
    • 7.4.1. Benchmarking Electric Traction Motors
    • 7.4.2. Motor Efficiency Comparison
    • 7.4.3. Magnet Price Increase?
    • 7.4.4. Multiple Motors: Explained
    • 7.4.5. Lucid Motors: Dual PMSM?
    • 7.4.6. Motor per Vehicle and kWp per Vehicle Assumptions
    • 7.4.7. Electric Traction Motor Technology Forecast 2020-2030

8. AUTONOMOUS CARS

  • 8.1. Why Autonomous Cars?
  • 8.2. Levels of Automation
  • 8.3. Future Mobility Scenarios
  • 8.4. Autonomous Driving Testing Race
  • 8.5. Evolution of Sensor Suite: Level 1 to Level 5
  • 8.6. Autonomous Vehicle = Electric Vehicle?
  • 8.7. Lidar Versus Camera
  • 8.8. Lidar Costs
  • 8.9. Lidar, Radar, Camera & Ultrasonic Sensor Comparison
  • 8.10. How Many Cameras Needed: Level 1 - Level 5

9. FORECASTS & ASSUMPTIONS

  • 9.1. Global Car Sales: the Addressable Market
  • 9.2. Global Car Sales Forecast 2020-2040: Methodology
  • 9.3. Short-term Forecast Methodology (Cars)
  • 9.4. Electric Car Forecasts
  • 9.5. Cars Battery Assumptions and Demand
  • 9.6. Forecast Assumptions
  • 9.7. Autonomous Vehicle Assumptions and Uncertainty
  • 9.8. Battery Shortage Assumptions
  • 9.9. Li-ion Cell and Pack Price Assumptions 2020-2030
  • 9.10. Assumptions: Upfront Price Parity