表紙
市場調查報告書

電動廂型車市場 2020-2030年

Electric Vans 2020-2030

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 923204
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 190 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
電動廂型車市場 2020-2030年 Electric Vans 2020-2030
出版日期: 2020年01月28日內容資訊: 英文 190 Slides
簡介

全球電動小型商用車 (LCV) 生產輛數預測在2030年之前會超過240萬台。 推動商用車電動化的因素在各地區市場皆不同,但每個地區都快速引進電動發動機代替傳統內燃機,成為了強力成長因素。

本報告調查了全球主要地區的電動小型商用車 (LCV) 市場,提供10年份的詳細展望,並統整了各地區受歡迎的電動LCV、主要賦能技術和市場展望等。

第1章 執行摘要與結論

第2章 簡介

第3章 小型商用車 (LCV) 的分類

  • 小型商用車 (LCV) 的分類
  • 商品運輸各部門:土地別
  • 受歡迎的On Road Track的種類
  • LCV車隊說明:地區別

第4章 ELCV的TCO探討事項

  • 光是環保,對於eLCV的採用是不充分的
  • 有關eLCV的TCO探討事項
  • 克服低排放技術的障礙
  • 例:eLCV的TCO(Renault Kangoo)
  • 例:eLCV的TCO(日產e-NV200)
  • 柴油引擎與eLCV之間的TCO Parity的時間表
  • 何時能到達成本等價?
  • 電動及柴油引擎LCV的成本等價

第5章 歐洲的電動LCV

  • 歐洲:LCV販售
  • LCV歐洲市場
  • 在歐洲的使用中LCV車隊與新登記者
  • 歐洲的6大LCV車隊的新登記者
  • 歐洲的電動LCV販售
  • 歐洲的人氣e-LCV
  • 歐洲的人氣e-LCV:StreetScooter
  • 歐洲的人氣e-LCV:小巧型公用載體
  • 歐洲e-LCV的未來
  • 歐洲可使用的e-LCV車款
  • Arrival:來自Hyundai Motor Group的投資
  • 市場展望:國家及地方的政策
  • 市場展望:瑞典預測

第6章 中國的電動LCV

  • 中國:商用車販售
  • 小型商用車的中國市場
  • 中國:電動SPV的販售
  • 在中國受歡迎的電動小型廂型車
  • 在中國受歡迎的電動廂型車
  • 中國:對中國電動LCV的主要電池供應商
  • 中國:中國的電動LCV主要發動機供應商
  • 在中國促進LCV電動化的因素
  • 市場展望:中國的電動LCV

第7章 美國的電動LCV

  • 美國:商用廂型車販售
  • 廂型車的美國市場
  • 在美國受歡迎的電動廂型車
  • Rivian / Amazon 電動配送廂型車
  • 在美國促進LCV車隊電動化的商業?

第8章 其他電動LCV

  • TOYOTA Proace
  • 大和/ DHL Street Scooter
  • 三菱MiniCab MiEV廂型車
  • Hyundai-Kia
  • Tata Motors Ace
  • Mahindra eSupro Cargo Van
  • Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept
  • Ashok Leyland - 要轉型到LCV領域還為時尚早
  • Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T
  • SEA E4V 送貨用廂型車

第9章 主要賦能技術

第10章 ELCV市場預測

  • LCV預測前提條件
  • 市場預測:電動LCV的平均電池容量(kWh) - 歐洲
  • 市場預測:電動LCV的平均電池容量(kWh) - 中國
  • 市場預測:電動LCV的平均電池容量(kWh) - 北美
  • 市場預測:電動LCV的平均電池容量(kWh) - 其他
  • 全球LCV市場預測
  • 全球LCV生產輛數
  • 全球eLCV生產輛數
  • 全球eLCV生產輛數:地區別
  • 全球LCV市佔率預測:eLCV
  • 全球eLCV總電池條件
  • eLCV電池條件預測:地區別
  • LCV (全燃料) 市場預測
  • LCV (全燃料) 市場預測:地區別
  • eLCV在LCV市場整體獲益所佔市佔率預測
  • 歐洲LCV市場預測
  • 歐洲LCV生產輛數
  • 歐洲eLCV生產輛數
  • 歐洲LCV市佔率預測:eLCV
  • 歐洲eLCV總電池條件
  • 歐洲eLCV市場預測
  • eLCV在歐洲LCV市場整體獲益所佔LCV市佔率預測
  • 歐洲LCV市場預測
  • 歐洲LCV生產輛數
  • 歐洲eLCV生產輛數
  • 歐洲LCV市佔率預測:eLCV
  • 歐洲eLCV總電池條件
  • 歐洲eLCV市場預測
  • eLCV在歐洲LCV市場整體獲益所佔LCV市佔率預測
  • 中國LCV市場預測
  • 中國LCV生產輛數
  • 中國eLCV生產輛數
  • 中國LCV市佔率預測:eLCV
  • 中國eLCV總電池條件
  • 中國eLCV市場預測
  • eLCV在中國LCV市場整體獲益所佔市佔率預測
  • 北美LCV市場預測
  • 北美LCV生產輛數
  • 北美eLCV生產輛數
  • 北美LCV市佔率預測:eLCV
  • 北美eLCV總電池條件
  • 北美eLCV市場預測
  • eLCV在北美LCV市場整體獲益所佔市佔率預測
  • ROW (其他) LCV市場預測
  • ROW (其他) LCV生產輛數
  • ROW (其他) eLCV生產輛數
  • ROW (其他) LCV市佔率預測:eLCV
  • ROW (其他) eLCV總電池條件
  • ROW (其他) eLCV市場預測
  • eLCV在ROW (其他) LCV市場整體獲益所佔市佔率預測,等
目錄

Title:
Electric Vans 2020-2030
Detailed regional production, market, battery requirement and market value forecasts for electric light commercial vehicles, 2020-2030. Background to the developing electric van markets in Europe, China and the US: players and drivers for electrification.

Global production of electric light commercial vehicles to exceed 2.4 million units annually by 2030.

Astute businesses are recognising that electrifying their light commercial vehicle fleets is not only a successful mechanism by which they can demonstrate their green credentials to their customers, but is also, increasingly, the prudent economic decision.

Whilst there are differing motivations for commercial vehicle electrification in each of the key geographical markets, there are strong drivers in each which are pushing them towards the rapid adoption of electric motors in place of conventional internal combustion engines.

The new IDTechEx forecast report "Electric Vans 2020-2030" provides a detailed ten-year outlook for the uptake of electric light commercial vehicles across key regions; China, Europe, North America and the rest of the world. The report contains over 50 market forecast slides, outlining eLCV production, penetration, market revenue and battery requirement. This report will be of great value to companies across the automotive industry including OEMs, battery manufactures, electric drivetrain parts and systems suppliers, materials and research organisations, charging infrastructure developers, government agencies and companies with significant LCV fleets.

IDTechEx Electric Vans 2020-2030 forecast segmentation:

  • By geography; North America, China, Europe (EU + EFTA) and ROW as well as an aggregate global forecast.
  • 10-year outlook; production, market penetration, market revenue, battery capacity requirement and eLCV share of total LCV market.

Also included in the report:

  • 2020-2030 eLCV sales forecasts for each European country with greater than 25,000 LCV units sales p.a. (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, Norway and Switzerland).
  • 2020-2040 market penetration and sales forecasts for France, the UK and Germany, incorporating IDTechEx's 2020-2030 forecasts into a longer-term LCV electrification pathway in the three largest European markets.

Along with the forecasts, the IDTechEx Electric Vans report 2020-2030, provides a background to the addressable LCV market in each of the key regions; describes the current state of the eLCV market in each of these regions, highlighting the major players; and looks at the distinct drivers in each region that are promoting the growth of electric light commercial vehicles, including total cost of ownership considerations.

The LCV market is uniquely positioned for the rapid uptake of electric vehicles for a number of reasons, which include:

  • LCV purchase decisions are commonly made on a total cost of operation (TCO) basis. The significant operational cost saving of electricity, in place of diesel, as a fuel is incorporated into the decision-making process of an LCV purchaser to a much greater degree than is the case for private customers in the electric passenger car market, where upfront cost is more often the determining factor. Where the TCO benefit of an electric vehicle can be demonstrated, it becomes a competitive advantage for operators to run electric vehicles. For smaller vans there is evidence that this is already the case, for larger vans the TCO parity is projected for the mid-2020s.
  • Fleet managers have a detailed knowledge of the daily duty requirements of their vehicles. As LCV operators understand the daily mileage they require from their vehicles, range anxiety should not be an issue for the LCV market. OEMs must work with their customers, pre-sale, to understand firstly if their vehicle can meet the daily duty demand in the worst case scenario (cold, fully laden, congested traffic, etc) and further to this, to work with them to optimise the battery size and charging strategy to meet their customers' need, with the effect of reducing the upfront cost of the vehicle and minimising the weight of the installed battery.
  • Along with the concerns common to all combustion driven vehicles around fuel efficiency / CO2 emission and the impact of this on the global climate, a further driver for eLCV is the effect of exhaust emissions on local air quality. LCVs are often employed in urban environments as a key element in the logistics chain. There is growing evidence of the detrimental impact that exhaust pollutant emissions, especially NOx and PM, have on local air quality and public health. As a direct result, many large cities are in the process of introducing mechanisms to limit the access of polluting vehicles to city centres. Combustion engine driven vehicles will increasingly have to pay to access low emission zones within cities, vastly increasing their operating costs. Urbanisation and the continued growth of e-commerce is set to increase demand for the delivery of goods, but the tariff on exhaust emissions in congested urban areas will make eLCV the cheapest way to meet the demand.

The total cost of ownership is important to LCV purchasers and will be a driving force for uptake, however in the short term IDTechEx expect there to be a period of progressively larger pilot projects, conducted by commercial fleet operators to establish that eLCVs meet the businesses operational requirements. This period of validation will be necessary for fleet operators to determine that the vehicle range, load volume capacity, payload weight and reliability in real-world operation are sufficient to replace the existing diesel fleet. Once this has been shown, the widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCV will take begin.

Analyst access from IDTechEx

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. An imminent boom in eLCV sales
  • 1.2. Light commercial vehicle classification
  • 1.3. Continued growth in road freight demand
  • 1.4. Electric small vans TCO advantage over diesel
  • 1.5. eLCV regional summary
  • 1.6. Key global forecast takeaways
  • 1.7. Key Regional Forecast takeaways:
  • 1.8. LCV global production (000s units)
  • 1.9. eLCV global production by region (000s units)
  • 1.10. eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh)
  • 1.11. eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn)

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Climate change
  • 2.2. Global CO2 emission from transport
  • 2.3. CO2 emissions from the LCV sector
  • 2.4. Urban air quality
  • 2.5. Road transport the main source of urban NOx
  • 2.6. Global efforts to limit urban road transport emissions
  • 2.7. National diesel and petrol vehicle bans
  • 2.8. The worldwide freight transport industry
  • 2.9. Projected increase in global road freight activity
  • 2.10. The rise of e-commerce: increased freight demand
  • 2.11. Fuel / emissions regulation for new LCVs
  • 2.12. GHG emission from light commercial vehicles
  • 2.13. Europe legislating CO2 emission from LCV
  • 2.14. The developing electric light commercial vehicle market
  • 2.15. The developing electric light commercial vehicle market
  • 2.16. Considerations for eLCV adoption
  • 2.17. Do electric LCVs offer sufficient range?
  • 2.18. An imminent boom in eLCV sales
  • 2.19. New eLCV sales (BEV & PHEV), 2005-18 (000s)
  • 2.20. eLCV stock (BEV & PHEV), by country, 2005-18 (000s)

3. LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION

  • 3.1. Light commercial vehicle classification
  • 3.2. Different segments of goods transportation by land
  • 3.3. Types of popular on-road truck
  • 3.4. LCV fleet description by region

4. TCO CONSIDERATIONS FOR ELCV

  • 4.1. Environmental goodwill insufficient for uptake of eLCV
  • 4.2. TCO considerations for eLCV
  • 4.3. Overcoming barriers for low emission technologies
  • 4.4. Example: TCO for eLCV (Renault Kangoo)
  • 4.5. Example: TCO for eLCV (Nissan e-NV200)
  • 4.6. Timeline for TCO parity between diesel and eLCV
  • 4.7. When will cost parity be reached?
  • 4.8. Electric and diesel LCV cost parity

5. ELECTRIC LCVS IN EUROPE

  • 5.1. Europe: LCV sales 2018
  • 5.2. European market for LCVs
  • 5.3. European in-use LCV fleet and new registrations
  • 5.4. New registrations in Europe's six largest LCV fleets
  • 5.5. 2018 European Electric LCV Sales
  • 5.6. Popular e-LCVs in Europe
  • 5.7. Popular e-LCVs in Europe: StreetScooter
  • 5.8. Popular e-LCVs in Europe: compact utility vehicles
  • 5.9. Future e-LCVs in Europe
  • 5.10. Specifications of eLCVs available in Europe
  • 5.11. Arrival: Investment from Hyundai Motor Group
  • 5.12. Market outlook: national and local policy
  • 5.13. Market Outlook: Example Sweden Forecast

6. ELECTRIC LCVS IN CHINA

  • 6.1. China: Commercial Vehicle Sales 2018
  • 6.2. Chinese Market for Light Commercial Vehicles
  • 6.3. China: Electric Special-Purpose Vehicle Sales
  • 6.4. Popular Electric Micro-Vans in China
  • 6.5. Popular Electric Vans in China
  • 6.6. China: Main Battery Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs
  • 6.7. China: Main Motor Suppliers to Chinese Electric LCVs
  • 6.8. Drivers for the electrification of LCVs in China
  • 6.9. Drivers for Electrification of LCV Market in China
  • 6.10. Market Outlook: China electric LCVs

7. ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE US

  • 7.1. US: Commercial Van Sales 2018
  • 7.2. US Market for Vans
  • 7.3. Popular Electric Vans in the US
  • 7.4. Rivian / Amazon electric delivery van
  • 7.5. Business to drive electrification of LCV fleet in US?

8. ELECTRIC LCVS IN THE ROW

  • 8.1. Toyota PROACE
  • 8.2. Yamato / DHL StreetScooter
  • 8.3. Mitsubishi MiniCab MiEV Van
  • 8.4. Hyundai-Kia
  • 8.5. Tata Motors Ace
  • 8.6. Mahindra eSupro Cargo Van
  • 8.7. Maruti Suzuki India Eeco Charge Concept
  • 8.8. Ashok Leyland - Too early to move LCV range electric
  • 8.9. Croyance Electro 1.T and Electro 2.T
  • 8.10. SEA E4V Delivery Van

9. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES

  • 9.1. The key enabling technologies are changing
  • 9.2. Research reports
  • 9.3. Energy storage
  • 9.4. Is LiB Capacity sufficient?
  • 9.5. More than one type of cell design
  • 9.6. Cell, module, and pack
  • 9.7. Changes at cell level
  • 9.8. Timeline for cell improvements
  • 9.9. How do high-power ES variants compare?
  • 9.10. Motor technology choices
  • 9.11. Technology preference by type of vehicle
  • 9.12. Limited 48V opportunity with delivery vans
  • 9.13. Ford Transit Custom PHEV

10. ELCV MARKET FORECASTS 2020-2030

  • 10.1. Assumptions behind the LCV forecasts
  • 10.2. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in Europe 2020-2030
  • 10.3. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in China 2020-2030
  • 10.4. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the North America 2020-2030
  • 10.5. Market forecast: Average battery capacity for electric LCV (kWh) in the ROW 2020-2030
  • 10.6. Global Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.7. LCV global production (000s units)
  • 10.8. eLCV global production (000s units)
  • 10.9. eLCV global production by region (000s units)
  • 10.10. Global LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.11. Global eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.12. eLCV battery requirement forecast by region (GWh)
  • 10.13. LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.14. LCV (all fuels) market forecast 2020-2030 by region ($ Bn)
  • 10.15. eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.16. eLCV market forecast by region ($US Bn)
  • 10.17. Forecast eLCV share of total LCV market revenue
  • 10.18. Europe Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.19. Europe LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.20. Europe eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.21. Europe LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.22. Europe eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.23. Europe eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.24. Forecast eLCV share of total Europe LCV market revenue
  • 10.25. China Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.26. China LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.27. China eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.28. China LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.29. China eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.30. China eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.31. Forecast eLCV share of total China LCV market revenue
  • 10.32. North America Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.33. North America (NA) LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.34. NA eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.35. NA LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.36. NA eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.37. NA eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.38. Forecast eLCV share of total NA LCV market revenue
  • 10.39. ROW Forecast: LCV Market 2020-2030
  • 10.40. ROW LCV production (000s units)
  • 10.41. ROW eLCV production (000s units)
  • 10.42. ROW LCV market share forecast for eLCV
  • 10.43. ROW eLCV total battery requirement 2020-2030 (GWh)
  • 10.44. ROW eLCV market forecast 2020-2030 ($US Bn)
  • 10.45. Forecast eLCV share of total ROW LCV market revenue
  • 10.46. EU+EFTA Sales Forecast: eLCV market 2020-2030, by county, for markets greater than 25,000 LCV units p.a.
  • 10.47. Austria eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.48. Belgium eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.49. Denmark eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.50. France eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.51. Germany eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.52. Ireland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.53. Italy eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.54. Netherlands eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.55. Poland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.56. Portugal eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.57. Spain eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.58. Sweden eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.59. UK eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.60. Norway eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.61. Switzerland eLCV sales and market penetration forecast
  • 10.62. Europe Forecast: eLCV Market 2020-2040 For France, UK and Germany
  • 10.63. France eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040
  • 10.64. UK eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040
  • 10.65. Germany eLCV penetration and sales, pathway to 2040