市場調查報告書

電動校車、小型巴士的全球市場:2019-2039年

Electric School Buses and Midi Buses 2019-2039

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 801092
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 131 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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電動校車、小型巴士的全球市場:2019-2039年 Electric School Buses and Midi Buses 2019-2039
出版日期: 2019年07月31日內容資訊: 英文 131 Slides
簡介

電動校車市場預測在2029年急遽增加至69億美元。

本報告調查了全球電動校車市場,並分析了市場概要、電動巴士技術、主要巴士製造商動態及各地區的校車業者動態等。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 介紹

  • 都市的道路交通
  • 世界的大型柴油引擎車排放氣體規範路線圖
  • 電動校車經濟
  • Peak Car增加校車使用的可能性
  • 推動電化巴士的因素

第3章 電動巴士技術

  • 概要
  • 動力總成選項
  • Body Charge
  • 實現純電動汽車的可能性 vs. 巴士/卡車的能源儲存kWh
  • 純電動巴士、卡車的電池參數。
  • 中國:校車的電車市場會超過10億美元嗎?
  • 能源儲存的選擇:鋰電池的優勢
  • 能源儲存系統的能源密度改善:儲存類型
  • 更換電池:超級電容器的實現可能性 vs 巴士/卡車的容量 kWh。
  • 稀少電池:超級電容器、燃料電池組合
  • 稀少電池:動態充電後,能源獨立型的電動巴士、卡車
  • V2G使電動校車成為可能
  • 機器人接駁車
  • 邁向能源獨立:巴士範圍擴大

第4章 巴士製造商:油電混合巴士、純電動巴士、校車、電動校車

  • 全球油電混合巴士製造商
  • 全球純電動巴士製造商
  • 北美校車製造商
    • Blue Bird
    • Collins Bus (REV Group)
    • IC Bus (Navistar)
    • Green Power Motor
    • Lion Electric
    • Micro Bird Girardin
    • Starcraft
    • Trans Tech
  • 中國校車製造商

第5章 北美的校車業者

  • 傳統校車
  • 在數個地區推動電化
  • 成本問題
  • 美國校車實例
  • 美國、加拿大的校車銷售額
  • 國:擁有全球最多受認可校車
  • 統計:地區分類
  • 自律需求:駕駛不足與成本高漲
  • 美國的純電動動力總成優點
  • 伊利諾觀點:環境法及政策中心
  • 實例:ComEd服務地區的電動校車機會
  • 美國公共事業業者參與電動校車的駕駛計畫
  • 校車購買者關心電動化
  • 加拿大
  • 墨西哥

第6章 中國的校車業者

  • 中國:具有極大可能性、尚未興起
  • 校車:美國與中國的比較
  • 現實確認
  • 香港

第7章 其他地區的校車業者

  • 澳洲
  • 阿拉伯聯邦
  • 德國
  • 印度
  • 義大利
  • 日本
  • 紐西蘭
  • 波蘭
  • 俄羅斯
  • 新加坡
  • 西藏
  • 烏克蘭
  • 英國

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目錄

We all know China has 400,000 large battery buses and they are spreading across the world thanks to strong subsidies but there is another big opportunity coming with smaller buses. Uniquely, the new IDTechEx report, "Electric School Buses and Midi Buses 2019-2039" appraises this. There are over 1.5 million school buses, mostly midi buses but with larger ones favorite in North America. Federal support for electrification is poor or non-existent so adoption of electric versions has had to await public outcry about the entirely avoidable poisoning of children with engine fumes and cost-effectiveness even parity of up front price between the clean and dirty options. This is imminent.

The report reveals how the school electric bus market extends from Dubai to New Zealand and it will jump to $6.9 billion in 2029 with rapid increase thereafter. The market for small and midi buses for other purposes will be a multiple of that and include robot shuttles rapidly becoming its biggest part. By the end of the decade, some robot shuttles may be acting as school bus, urban bus and taxi all in one day. There will be much innovation and the report has an image of what the planned Tesla midi bus may look like, leveraging existing Tesla technologies. Indeed, Tesla has just bought the world's largest supercapacitor manufacturer and the report looks at the potential for supercapacitors to replace batteries in such buses.

School bus diesel exposures to children pose as much as 23 to 46 times the cancer risk considered significant under US federal law. There is no known safe level of exposure to diesel or gasoline exhaust for children. Their weak, developing immune systems get a huge belt when the bus doors open. In the USA alone, the captive ridership is around 26 million twice daily injured by this extreme case of cruelty to children. Indeed, US school buses emit 3,000 tons of cancer-causing soot and 95,000 tons of smog-causing compounds every year. Each year, one school bus in Texas emits the equivalent of 114 cars according to the EPA.

The Executive Summary and Conclusions of the report pulls all this together in easily understood infographics, forecasts for electric school buses in China, USA, Canada and Other Regions and also buses in general, robot shuttles and fuel cell buses. A technology timeline covers 2019-2040.

Chapter 2 Introduction covers school bus economics, regulations and market forces. That includes fewer people taking driving licenses, shortages of bus drivers and other reasons for robot buses eventually. Chapter 3 details the technology, criticising the poor start with hybrid electric buses and heavy old chassis and clarifying technologies that will succeed, benchmarking other more advanced sectors through to "massless energy" from bodywork making and storing electricity. Here are the battery and supercapacitor advances coming up to 2030, the trend to less battery, new supercapacitor buses, options for charging on-the-move and more given by year ahead. Learn how vehicle-to-grid and solar bodywork are making school buses affordable and how robot buses will function.

Chapter 4 profiles relevant bus manufacturers by type and their activity prioritising school and midi buses. Chapters 5, 6 and 7 detail the latest situation, learnings and issues with school buses in North America, China and Other Regions respectively.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Focus of this report
  • 1.2. Why adopt buses?
  • 1.3. Buses worldwide: breakdown of types 2025
  • 1.4. Types of bus
  • 1.5. Disruptive redesign is coming: big market emerging
  • 1.6. Cruelty to children
  • 1.7. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
  • 1.8. Rationale and examples of electric school buses
  • 1.9. Driverless school buses
    • 1.9.1. TEAGUE
    • 1.9.2. Potential for Tesla high density robot bus
  • 1.10. Technology timeline for school buses
  • 1.11. Market forecasts
    • 1.11.1. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 number (thousand)
    • 1.11.2. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 unit price $k
    • 1.11.3. Electric bus market forecast 2019-2029 $ billion market value

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. On-road transport in cities
  • 2.2. Technology to the rescue
    • 2.2.1. Electrification, autonomy, sharing
    • 2.2.2. Synergy and benefits of electric and robotic school buses
  • 2.3. Worldwide regulatory emissions roadmap for heavy duty diesel
  • 2.4. Electric school bus economics
  • 2.5. Peak car may increase school bus usage
  • 2.6. Drivers of bus electrification

3. ELECTRIC BUS TECHNOLOGY

  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. Powertrain options
  • 3.3. Body and chassis
    • 3.3.1. Overview
    • 3.3.2. ADOMANI
    • 3.3.3. Lightweighting buses by monocoque construction: Anhui China
  • 3.4. Pure electric vehicle viability vs energy storage kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040
  • 3.5. Battery parameters in pure electric buses and trucks 2019
  • 3.6. China - extra $1 billion battery market for school buses?
  • 3.7. Choosing energy storage: lithium-ion batteries dominate
  • 3.8. Energy density improvement of energy storage systems by storage type 2019-2029
  • 3.9. Battery replacement: supercapacitor viability vs capacity kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040
  • 3.9.1. BlueSG announce shuttle bus with super capacitors and flash-charging
  • 3.10. Less battery: supercapacitor, fuel cell combinations
  • 3.11. Less battery: dynamically charged then energy independent electric buses and trucks
  • 3.12. Vehicle to Grid V2G making electric school buses affordable
    • 3.12.1. V2G assessment for buses
    • 3.12.2. V2G saving projections by ELPC
    • 3.12.3. Blue Bird V2G award
    • 3.12.4. Fermata V2G investment
  • 3.13. Robot shuttles
  • 3.14. Towards energy independence: increasing bus range

4. BUS MANUFACTURERS: HYBRID, PURE ELECTRIC, SCHOOL, ELECTRIC SCHOOL

  • 4.1. Hybrid bus manufacturers worldwide
  • 4.2. Pure electric bus manufacturers worldwide
  • 4.3. School bus manufacturers in North America
    • 4.3.1. Blue Bird
    • 4.3.2. Collins Bus (REV Group)
    • 4.3.3. IC Bus (Navistar)
    • 4.3.4. Green Power Motor
    • 4.3.5. Lion Electric
    • 4.3.6. Micro Bird Girardin
    • 4.3.7. Starcraft
    • 4.3.8. Trans Tech
  • 4.4. School bus manufacturers in China

5. SCHOOL BUS OPERATION IN NORTH AMERICA

  • 5.1. Traditional school buses: big oil user, injuring children, fires
  • 5.2. Push for electric in some regions
  • 5.3. Cost issues
  • 5.4. US school bus examples
  • 5.5. US and Canada school bus sales 2018
  • 5.6. USA: world's largest licensed school bus fleet
  • 5.7. Statistics by region
  • 5.8. Autonomy needed: driver shortages and cost escalation
  • 5.9. Pure electric powertrain benefits in USA
  • 5.10. Illinois viewpoint: Environmental Law and Policy Center
  • 5.11. Example: Electric School Bus Opportunities In ComEd's Service Territory
  • 5.12. USA utilities engaging In electric school bus pilot programs in 2019
  • 5.13. School bus purchasers interested in electric
  • 5.14. Canada
    • 5.14.1. Requirements and sources
  • 5.15. Mexico

6. SCHOOL BUS OPERATION IN CHINA

  • 6.1. China: big potential, not much happening yet
  • 6.2. School buses: USA and China compared
  • 6.3. Reality check
  • 6.4. Hong Kong

7. SCHOOL BUS OPERATION IN OTHER REGIONS

  • 7.1. Australia
  • 7.2. Emirates
  • 7.3. Germany
  • 7.4. India
  • 7.5. Italy
  • 7.6. Japan
  • 7.7. New Zealand
  • 7.8. Poland
  • 7.9. Russia
  • 7.10. Singapore
  • 7.11. Tibet
  • 7.12. Ukraine
  • 7.13. United Kingdom
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