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市場調查報告書

離網零排放電力:2018年∼2038年 - 新市場與新技術藍圖

Distributed Generation: Minigrid Microgrid Zero Emission 2018-2038 - Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Gaps in Market

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 578153
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 390 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
離網零排放電力:2018年∼2038年 - 新市場與新技術藍圖 Distributed Generation: Minigrid Microgrid Zero Emission 2018-2038 - Forecasts, Technology Roadmap, Gaps in Market
出版日期: 2019年03月31日內容資訊: 英文 390 Slides
簡介

本報告提供全球離網零排放電力的市場調查,市場及技術概要,市場成長的影響因素及課題分析,系統元素,主要地區的配合措施,主要的發電技術和趨勢,今後的技術發展發展藍圖,主要企業、組織的措施範例等彙整資料

第1章 摘要整理、總論

  • 所謂離網零排放電力供給
  • 零排放離網的系統結構
  • 多模式電力採集的迷你電網
  • 電力自給型船舶的市場機會
  • 並聯型 vs 離網:各國
  • 概要:離網結構、過程
  • 離網的主要技術
  • 潛在市場
  • 技術藍圖等

第2章 簡介

  • 系統元素
  • 基礎設定
  • 能源採集 (EH)
  • 市場上差距
  • 電動力學
  • 地熱
  • 超過100kW的波浪發電磁致伸縮
  • 電池等

第3章 全球進步、市場機會範例

  • 概要
  • 財政&協調
  • 非洲趨勢
  • 美屬薩摩亞
  • 安地卡
  • 澳洲
  • 孟加拉
  • 柬埔寨
  • 中國
  • 剛果民主共和國
  • 杜拜
  • 印度
  • 再生能源
  • 地區的體驗
  • 日本
  • 肯亞
  • 寮國
  • 馬利共和國
  • 馬爾他
  • 摩洛哥
  • 紐西蘭
  • 奈及利亞
  • 波多黎各
  • 獅子山共和國
  • 坦尚尼亞
  • 美國等

第4章 離網能源採集技術比較

  • 概要
  • 重要參數
  • EH技術的預期功能比較
  • EH技術的相對優點及需求
  • EH技術的超曲線

第5章 來自光、紅外線的電力

  • 概要
  • 案例:迷你電網的船艇
  • 矽以外主要的PV的選項
  • pn接合 vs 光電化學效果DSSC
  • G24i室內模組 vs aSi模組的電力密度比較
  • DSSC潛在範圍利基市場
  • BIPV
  • 發電的道路:PV、壓電等

第6章 風力發電

  • 概要
  • 利基的功率小於100kw的風力發電機
  • 風力的電力自給:Inergy 70kW
  • Energy Observer:風力和太陽光
  • 空中浮體式風力發電
  • 電動力學:繫留無人機的抽吸作用
  • 主要的空中浮體式風力發電的選項
  • 案例:AWE的市場機會
  • AWE的需求等

第7章 青能源發電

  • 概要
  • WITT:6D波浪發電發電
  • 沖繩科學技術大學「Sea Horse」

第8章 電池

  • 電化學定義
  • 三元悖論
  • 固定式儲存的重要性的擴大
  • 固定式儲存的新的路程
  • 離網蓄電技術
  • 蓄電技術比較
  • 配套服務的電池貯存的價值
  • 成本:主要的障礙
  • 價值鏈
  • 產業間的電池合作範例
  • Tesla Energy
  • Powerwall
  • BYD
  • Sharp Corp
  • SONY
  • 東芝
  • Mercedes-Benz、Daimler
  • 氧化還原液流電池 (RFB)等

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目錄

Grid electricity is being bypassed. Extension of national grids is nowhere near keeping up with population growth. The sheer cost of upgrading national grids and their vulnerability to terrorism and natural disasters is leading to clean off grid power. It will also replace 800 GW of diesel gensets.

The new 370+ page IDTechEx report, "Off Grid Distributed Generation: Minigrid and Microgrid 2018-2038" reveals the market drivers and changing technologies involved. Primarily it concerns the rapid expansion of clean distributed energy as microgrids and minigrids of 0.5kW- 1MW. The Executive Summary and Conclusions includes detailed forecasts and technology roadmaps. The Introduction explains off grid history, definitions, comparison of the ten energy harvesting technologies, the fringe topic geothermal and the nature and challenges of off grid batteries plus electricity cost comparisons. A chapter on progress and opportunities worldwide: profiles continents and 21 countries. Chapter 4 compares technologies in more detail than earlier. The emphasis is on what is new and important for the future: this is seen in the drill down chapter on electricity from light and infrared scoping such things as perovskites, Building Integrated Photovoltaics BIPV, solar vs piezo roads and "Silent City" leading to the chapter on electricity from wind including a close look at the newly commercial Aerial Wind Energy AWE and such things as piezo + photovoltaic sails as multi-mode harvesting becomes important. Off grid electricity from water is then explained with a detailed look at off grid battery technologies at the end of the report.

The presentation is compact with new detailed infograms and forecasts and a creative, critical approach by the many PhD level analysts who have toured the world to gain the information using local languages for technical interviews. It is shown that the biggest markets are on the mainland initially mainly in developing countries but mini grids are popular in island states, both developed and developing. There are more than 10,000 inhabited islands around the world and an estimated 750 million islanders and the report profiles many doing off grid, giving gives statistics, trends and achievements. In most cases, renewables are already a cost-effective replacement for their diesel generators and others benefit from solar panels taking much of their load as is also scoped in Africa and elsewhere.

The report even shows that vehicles and charging stations where needed will become micro and mini grids increasingly not connected to national grids. For example, Tesla promises solar bodywork and Elon Musk says he will take all his intended 10 GW of charging stations worldwide off grid. There is a clear roadmap in the report showing 2.2 million larger vehicles becoming candidates for energy independence as clean off grid minigrids in 2028 including the largest ships having zero emission instead of each emitting NOx and particulates of millions of cars. Off grid is shown to be a prudent diversification for utilities and fossil fuel companies now investing in it. The potential is considerable and for the first time it has now been fully scoped by this report, from single solar panels on huts in Africa to the 17 types of land vehicle, boat, ship and plane from 2014-2028 that will trend to being travelling minigrids with zero emission.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. What is an off grid zero emission electricity supply?
  • 1.2. Zero emission off grid system architecture
  • 1.3. Minigrids with multi-mode harvesting
  • 1.4. Purpose and context of this report
  • 1.5. Much is changing
  • 1.5.1. Stealing the emperor's clothes: Market drivers for off grid are strengthening
  • 1.6. Zero emission electricity generation market by source $bn <100MW groups 2028 and 2038
  • 1.7. Market driven approach: uninterrupted transportable green electricity
  • 1.8. Energy independent ship opportunity: 3MW gap in the market
  • 1.9. The ultimate all-weather mobile genset: no emissions, little energy storage?
  • 1.10. Definitions
    • 1.10.1. Overview
  • 1.11. On-grid vs off grid by country
  • 1.12. More reasons to worry about national grids now
    • 1.12.1. Five factors
    • 1.12.2. Why even electricity utilities back off grid
  • 1.13. Overview of off grid structure and history
    • 1.13.1. Structure
    • 1.13.2. History
    • 1.13.3. Electricity supply in 2018 and 2050: here comes off grid
    • 1.13.4. Access to electricity by people in 2018: conflicting forces
    • 1.13.5. Bridging technologies: solar assisted diesel gensets
  • 1.14. Which renewables, mainly zero emission, take over grid and off grid generation
  • 1.15. Off-grid leading technologies: PV with Li-ion batteries winning
  • 1.16. Addressable markets
    • 1.16.1. Introduction
    • 1.16.2. Reliable electricity in Africa
    • 1.16.3. Population by per capita income
    • 1.16.4. Off grid renewable energy installed capacity in 2050
    • 1.16.5. Installed capacity 2018-2050 kTWh/yr by grid, fringe of grid, off grid stationary, vehicle
    • 1.16.6. Installed capacity 2018kTWh/yr by grid, fringe of grid, off grid stationary, vehicle
    • 1.16.7. Installed capacity 2028 kTWh/yr by grid, fringe of grid, off grid stationary, vehicle
    • 1.16.8. Installed capacity 2040 kTWh/yr by grid, fringe of grid, off grid stationary, vehicle
    • 1.16.9. Installed capacity 2050 kTWh/yr by grid, fringe of grid, off grid stationary, vehicle
    • 1.16.10. Situation where grid access is lacking or poor
    • 1.16.11. Average annual lighting spend by off-grid population $/year 2012
    • 1.16.12. Africa
    • 1.16.13. Sales of large hybrid and pure electric vehicles globally in 17 categories number k 2013-2028
    • 1.16.14. Off-grid solar forecast
    • 1.16.15. Pico solar as indicator of microsolar
  • 1.17. Technology roadmaps
    • 1.17.1. Overview
    • 1.17.2. Off grid technology and adoption roadmap: harvesting
    • 1.17.3. Off grid technology and adoption roadmap: storage
  • 1.18. Continuity as important as cost: energy storage vs energy harvesting for continuity
    • 1.18.1. Overview
    • 1.18.2. Adoption, transition, optimisation
    • 1.18.3. Options for tapping excellent 200+m wind: particularly strong at night when PV is off
  • 1.19. Solar power for sustainable development

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Electrification alone will save 42% of world power demand
  • 2.2. System elements
    • 2.2.1. Where the term zero emission off-grid is used
    • 2.2.2. Off-grid structural types
  • 2.3. Basic configuration
  • 2.4. Energy harvesting (EH)
    • 2.4.1. Definition and overview
    • 2.4.2. Market drivers for off grid energy harvesting
    • 2.4.3. Features of energy harvesting
    • 2.4.4. EH transducer construction, materials
    • 2.4.5. Energy harvesting transducer options compared for all applications
    • 2.4.6. Off-Grid Energy Harvesting technology intermittent power generated
    • 2.4.7. Efficiency
    • 2.4.8. Energy harvesting is an immature industry
    • 2.4.9. IFEVS Italy energy independent electric restaurant van
  • 2.5. Gaps in the market : replace 6-800GWh of diesel gensets
  • 2.6. Electrodynamics
    • 2.6.1. Overview
    • 2.6.2. Electrodynamic parameters
  • 2.7. Geothermal
  • 2.8. Magnetostriction for 100kW+ wave power
  • 2.9. What is a battery?
    • 2.9.1. Basics
    • 2.9.2. Ecosystem for the whole battery life
    • 2.9.3. Ongoing lithium-ion fires and explosions - computers, cars, aircraft
    • 2.9.4. Hoverboards
    • 2.9.5. Next Li-ion failures and production delays due to cutting corners
  • 2.10. E.ON electricity utility promotes off-grid
  • 2.11. Standards and certification
  • 2.12. ABB microgrids
  • 2.13. China leads in photovoltaics
  • 2.14. Renault Group's smart island
  • 2.15. Australia can and should go off grid?
    • 2.15.1. IRENA view
    • 2.15.2. IRENA background data
  • 2.16. Local experience
  • 2.17. International Energy Agency (IEA) view
  • 2.18. Palau to host world's largest microgrid

3. PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITIES WORLDWIDE: EXAMPLES

  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. Finance and coordination
  • 3.3. Trend in Africa
  • 3.4. American Samoa
  • 3.5. Antigua
  • 3.6. Australia
    • 3.6.1. Schneider gets greenlight for energy project in South Australia
    • 3.6.2. Tesla off grid houses 30% cheaper than grid
  • 3.7. Bangladesh
  • 3.8. Cambodia
  • 3.9. China
  • 3.10. Democratic Republic of Congo
  • 3.11. Dubai
  • 3.12. India
  • 3.13. Renewable electricity: more attention now
  • 3.14. Japan
  • 3.15. Kenya
  • 3.16. Laos
  • 3.17. Mali
  • 3.18. Malta
  • 3.19. Morocco
  • 3.20. New Zealand
  • 3.21. Nigeria
  • 3.22. Puerto Rico
    • 3.22.1. sonnen brings power to Puerto Rico
  • 3.23. Sierra Leone
  • 3.24. Tanzania
  • 3.25. USA
    • 3.25.1. Microgrids boost edge of grid and provide backup

4. OFF-GRID ENERGY HARVESTING TECHNOLOGIES COMPARED

  • 4.1. Overview
  • 4.2. Important parameters
  • 4.3. Comparison of desirable features of EH technologies
  • 4.4. Relative benefits of EH technologies vs needs
  • 4.5. Hype curve for EH technologies
  • 4.6. Thermoelectric microgrids: when?

5. ELECTRICITY FROM LIGHT AND INFRARED

  • 5.1. Overview
  • 5.2. Thermoelectric Microgrids: When?
  • 5.3. Example: boat as a minigrid
  • 5.4. Main PV options beyond silicon
  • 5.5. Best research-cell efficiencies
  • 5.6. Photovoltaics becomes cheaper than large onshore wind in 2020
  • 5.7. Photovoltaics experience curve 2018
  • 5.8. pn junction vs photoelectrochemical DSSC
  • 5.9. Comparison G24i Indoor Module vs aSi Module Power Density
  • 5.10. DSSC addressable niche markets
  • 5.11. Solar greenhouses generate electricity and grow crops
  • 5.12. University of Colorado Boulder 2018
  • 5.13. Building integrated photovoltaic thermal (BIPVT)
  • 5.14. Electricity generating roads, paths: Piezo, electrodynamic or heat?
  • 5.15. Electricity from heat of roads, parking lots etc
  • 5.16. Silent city
  • 5.17. Building integrated photovoltaics BIPV
  • 5.18. Increasing silicon photovoltaic efficiency

6. ELECTRICITY FROM WIND

  • 6.1. Small wind turbines
  • 6.2. Electricity from wind
  • 6.3. Below 100kW wind turbines get niche
  • 6.4. Off grid electricity from wind
  • 6.5. Ground turbine wind power does not downsize well: physics and poorer wind
  • 6.6. Turbine choices
  • 6.7. Vertical Axis Wind Turbines VAWT have a place
  • 6.8. Electrical autonomy using wind alone: Inerjy 70kW energy independent boat being built with H-VAWT
  • 6.9. Energy Observer microgrid - VAWT wind and sun
  • 6.10. Airborne Wind Energy
  • 6.11. Electrodynamics: pumping action of tethered drone
  • 6.12. Main Airborne Wind Energy options taken seriously
  • 6.13. Example: opportunities for AWE
  • 6.14. Two very different needs for AWE
  • 6.15. Bladetips Energy
  • 6.16. Ampyx Power
  • 6.17. TwingTec
  • 6.18. Primary conclusions: the MW grid opportunity most are chasing
  • 6.19. Primary conclusions: the opportunity beyond MW grid
  • 6.20. Primary conclusions: AWE technologies
  • 6.21. Hybrid piezo photovoltaic film and fiber for sails etc
  • 6.22. More efficient small wind turbines

7. ELECTRICITY FROM WATER "BLUE ENERGY"

  • 7.1. Focus of this chapter
  • 7.2. Sources and technologies of inland water power
    • 7.2.1. Inland water power: sources, location potential
    • 7.2.2. Overall small hydro potential for steady supply with little or no storage
  • 7.3. Sources and technologies of marine (ocean) power
    • 7.3.1. Marine power: sources, location potential
    • 7.3.2. Where ocean power is both strongest and close to population
    • 7.3.3. Location of strongest ocean power for replacing diesel gensets
  • 7.4. Zero emission technology evolution: water power in context
    • 7.4.1. Overview
    • 7.4.2. Brief summary of water power technologies using water movement
    • 7.4.3. Technology options wave and tide stream: popularity by projects examined
    • 7.4.4. Ocean conversion technology winners and losers
  • 7.5. Optimal power ranges for hydro and marine mini/ microgrid power sources
  • 7.6. Small inland hydro <10MW SOFT report
  • 7.7. Wave power <10MW SOFT report
  • 7.8. Tidal power <10MW SOFT report
  • 7.9. Three strategies for new water power: very different LCOE targets needed
  • 7.10. Inland hydro the only past water success, wave takes big orders, tidal stream later
  • 7.11. Global primary energy consumption TWh
  • 7.12. Expect many new applications: Example - Sea Bubble water taxi charging
  • 7.13. Hype curve for water power

8. BATTERIES

  • 8.1. Electrochemistry definitions
  • 8.2. Useful charts for performance comparison
  • 8.3. The battery trilemma
  • 8.4. Stationary energy storage is not new
  • 8.5. The increasingly important role of stationary storage
  • 8.6. New avenues for stationary storage
  • 8.7. Off grid energy storage technologies
  • 8.8. Energy storage technologies in comparison
  • 8.9. Values provided by battery storage in ancillary services
  • 8.10. Costs: a major impediment
  • 8.11. Value Chain
  • 8.12. The launch of Tesla Energy and corresponding sales
  • 8.13. Powerwall's specifications
  • 8.14. Powerwall - a breakthrough product?
  • 8.15. Analysis of Tesla's strategy
  • 8.16. Background of Tesla's Gigafactory
  • 8.17. The impact of Tesla's Gigafactory
  • 8.18. The story did not start with Tesla and will not end with Tesla
  • 8.19. BYD
  • 8.20. BYD's layout is similar to Tesla and it makes wind turbines too
  • 8.21. Mercedes-Benz Energy Storage and Daimler's 2nd-use stationary battery storage project
  • 8.22. Redox Flow Batteries (RFB)
  • 8.23. The case for RFBs
  • 8.24. The price of RFBs
  • 8.25. The price of RFBs - LCOS
  • 8.26. Redox flow batteries in the news
  • 8.27. Redox flow batteries and caves
  • 8.28. Guide to understanding the charts
  • 8.29. Largest operational RFB projects
  • 8.30. Market players (operational projects)
  • 8.31. Hype curve for RFB technologies
  • 8.32. Other RFB configurations

9. OTHER OFF GRID ENERGY STORAGE

  • 9.1. Gravity storage cheaper, safer, cleaner, longer lived than batteries?
  • 9.2. Borkum Municipality with a flagship project for energy storage - news in 2019
  • 9.3. Other off grid energy storage