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市場調查報告書

全球48V輕度混合和48V重度混合動力車市場:2020-2030年

48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030

出版商 IDTechEx Ltd. 商品編碼 350435
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 203 Slides
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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全球48V輕度混合和48V重度混合動力車市場:2020-2030年 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030
出版日期: 2019年08月23日內容資訊: 英文 203 Slides
簡介

預估全球48V混合動力汽車銷售台數將於2030年成長至900萬台以上、超過2,180億美元市場規模。

本報告研究48V混合動力車 (輕度及重度混合) 市場,分析市場概要、48V混合動力車技術、銷售台數、市場規模、按地區的銷售台數、市場成長推動因素、主要企業、以及組件等內容。

第1章 摘要整理和結論

  • 本研究目的
  • 基本的48V輕度混合:更聰明的馬達、更強健的電池是關鍵
  • 48V重度混合的製造方法
  • 主要結論:市場
  • 主要結論:技術
  • 主要結論:製造商
  • 主要結論:Tier1供應商
  • 以適度的成本持續進行改善
  • 部分使用所有額外電力
  • 動力總成的選擇:48V混合動力車的背景
  • 動力總成的競爭
  • 為什麼汽車是48V輕度混合的焦點?
  • 汽車案例和時間表
  • 48V輕度混合模型案例
  • 日本特殊案例
  • 48V輕度混合技術
  • 48V輕度混合動力車和48V重度混合動力車的發售日
  • 市場分析

第2章 簡介

  • 什麼是電動車?
  • 48V混合動力車相關動力總成的競爭以及Peak Car的襲擊
  • 按功能的混合動力車選項:48V輕度混合動力車背景
  • 令人驚訝的未來證據:48V混合動力車的改善將持續到2030年
  • 未來的48V混合動力車技術改善
  • VW SUV的ROADMAP, IDTechEx 評論
  • 第二代48V輕度混合動力車

第3章 48V重度混合動力車

  • 48V重度混合動力車的設計
  • Continental的48V重度混合動力車
  • Borg Warner的48V重度混合動力車
  • 48V PEHV?
  • Eaton 的48V重度混合卡車

第4章 48V輕度混合動力車:按製造商

  • Alfa Romeo
  • Aston Martin Lagond
  • Audi
  • Bentley
  • BMW
  • Buick
  • Cadillac
  • Chang'an Motors
  • FAW
  • FCA
  • Ferrari
  • Ford
  • Geely
  • General Motors
  • Honda
  • Hyundai
  • Jaguar Land Rover
  • Kia
  • Mahindra & Mahindra
  • Mazda
  • Mercedes-Benz
  • Mitsubishi Motors
  • Nissan
  • Porsche
  • PSA
  • RAM
  • Renault
  • SAIC-GM
  • SsangYong
  • Skoda
  • Suzuki
  • Tata Motors and
  • Toyota
  • Volkswagen
  • Volvo Motors

第5章 48V輕度混合卡車

第6章 電動發電機

第7章 電池、超級電容器、太陽能電池

  • 概要
  • 更優異的電池及超級電容器的到來:W/kg vs Wh/kg
  • Geely和Maxwell的發表
  • 超級電容器主要優勢
  • 汽車市場的超級電容器:案例
  • 路上汽車市場的超級電容器
  • 動力總成的普及:按超級電容器
  • 超級電容器和衍生物
  • 結構性超級電容器:ZapGo, Lamborghini, MIT, Imperial College
  • 太陽能電池車身

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目錄

48V hybrid cars will exceed 9 million unit sales in 2030, over $218 billion.

New research by IDTechEx in its report, "48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030" reveals that the 48V mild hybrid powertrain is a done deal. Launched in 2016, now a flood of car models with this modification to traditional cars will keep them legal in the face of tightening emissions laws and save fuel. Indeed, it is now clear that they improve comfort, for example by powering active suspension and in some cases improve performance too. Next year the 48V repertoire will be seen from Ferrari to Volkswagen Golf and family cars in China. The Bentley Bentaygo and RAM pickup truck has the option so its universality is well proven even before we see substantial sales in the Daimler bus version. None are electric vehicles because they never drive the wheels electrically but it is now clear that they can be developed into just that. They are 48V mild hybrids heralding another big step forward, the 48V full hybrid.

The new powertrain called the 48V full hybrid promises to beat traditional hybrid electric vehicles on price by a big margin. "70% of an engine-dominant high-voltage hybrid's benefits at 30% of the powertrain cost" is what it will achieve. That means it will, at peak sales, take around $300 billion dollars of the car business by displacing conventional vehicle business even more than traditional hybrid business.

2020 will see first sales and 2023 the first substantial sales of what is still incremental improvement, albeit more costly and time-consuming than the 48V mild hybrid fix. The big prize is silent takeoff, creep in traffic, active cruising at speed and parking all with engine off but also more comfort and features. This is a prize worth delivering in this more affordable form. The companies behind this big step forward include Skoda experimenting with them for four years and Continental and Borg Warner newly offering a full kit of parts to carmakers. Continental points out that not long ago this was thought to be impossible. 48V mild hybrids were seen as a quick fix with a limited window of opportunity and that was that. Now, 48V mild hybrids are seeing a new roadmap of great improvements discussed in the report and the 48V full hybrid could take the technology past 2030. That is possibly beyond the life in the marketplace of the traditional HEV and plug in hybrid PHEV as they get throttled between 48V full hybrids on price and pure electric cars (including solar 1000km range versions) on performance and convenience. Indeed, it is now realised that incremental improvements to 48V full hybrid powertrains may possibly extend to such exotica as solar and supercapacitor bodywork, electricity producing suspension, autonomy and other features previously reserved for a pure electric end game.

The report reflects these new realities. The Executive Summary and Conclusions is sufficient in itself for those with limited time. It explains the architecture including that of the important new 48V full hybrids. It lists primary conclusions by market, technology, vehicle manufacturers and Tier One suppliers strongly involved. The Introduction explains the ongoing incremental improvements including those producing more electricity and the large number of ways it can be used to improve emissions, comfort, performance and economy. New infographics explain how these powertrains fit in with all options and you see the four key sales propositions for 48V hybrids as they evolve. Learn where 48V opportunities in other vehicles fit in and see many examples of such vehicles but discover the curious case of Japan. Launch dates and fuel for different versions in 25 brands are tabled. There is a SOFT report for the 48V powertrain and forecasts 2020-2030 for number price and value market including geographical market. There are detailed technology roadmaps to 2030.

Chapter 3 is unique in explaining the new 48V full hybrids, the work of those involved, product positioning, technology futures including whether a 48V plug in hybrid makes sense. Chapter 4 extensively appraises 48V hybrid work by manufacturer. That is 83 pages of ghost diagrams, vehicle images and commentary. Chapter 5 addresses 48V hybrid trucks preparing for market and Chapter 6 covers the technology detail for the all-important starter-motor-generators. Chapter 7 completes the report with many new infograms revealing how batteries, supercapacitors and solar bodywork form a part of the future 48V mild and full hybrid options. 30 minutes free consultancy on the topic comes with the deal.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose of this report
  • 1.2. Basic 48V mild hybrid: cleverer motor, stronger battery are key
  • 1.3. How to make a 48V full hybrid
  • 1.4. Primary conclusions: Market 2020-2030
  • 1.5. Primary conclusions: Technology
  • 1.6. Primary conclusions: Manufacturers
  • 1.7. Primary conclusions: Tier one suppliers
  • 1.8. Many ongoing incremental improvements at modest cost
  • 1.9. Some uses for all that extra electricity
  • 1.10. Powertrain options: 48V hybrid cars in context
  • 1.11. Powertrain competition to 2030
    • 1.11.1. Hit traditional ICE and HV HEV/PHEV
    • 1.11.2. Four sales propositions for 48V cars
  • 1.12. Why cars are the main focus of 48V MH
  • 1.13. Examples and timeline for cars
  • 1.14. Examples of 48V mild hybrid models
  • 1.15. The curious case of Japan
  • 1.16. Launch dates of 48V MH and 48V FH vehicles
  • 1.17. SOFT report for 48V hybrids
  • 1.18. Market forecasts
    • 1.18.1. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by number k 2019-2030
    • 1.18.2. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by unit price $ 2019-2030
    • 1.18.3. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by market value $m 2019-2030
    • 1.18.4. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by kWh 2020-2030
    • 1.18.5. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by total GWh 2020-2030
    • 1.18.6. 48V MH cars by number % sold by region
    • 1.18.7. Car manufacturer 48V hybrid thrust and demand by region
    • 1.18.8. Alternative projections for cars

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. What is an electric vehicle?
  • 2.2. Powertrain competition for 48V hybrids and peak car hitting everything
  • 2.3. Hybrid options by functionality: 48V MH in context
  • 2.4. Surprisingly future proof: 48V hybrid improvement continues through 2030
    • 2.4.1. Overview
    • 2.4.2. Option of replacing turbocharger with electric supercharger for efficiency
    • 2.4.3. Overstated mild hybrid benefits against HV HEV
  • 2.5. 48V hybrid technology improvements ahead
    • 2.5.1. Functions vs architectures
    • 2.5.2. Summarised interviews on abandoning dual 12V + 48V car systems
    • 2.5.3. Windows of opportunity for launch of 48V MH car variants
  • 2.6. VW SUV roadmap , IDTechEx comment
  • 2.7. Second generation 48V mild hybrid cars 2021-5 VW, Delphi

3. 48V FULL HYBRIDS

  • 3.1. Design of a 48V full hybrid vehicle
    • 3.1.1. Market positioning and technology choices
    • 3.1.2. Primitive 48V full hybrid: Skoda
    • 3.1.3. 48V full hybrid with maximum benefits
  • 3.2. Continental 48V full hybrid car
  • 3.3. Borg Warner 48V full hybrid car
  • 3.4. 48V Plug-in PHEV?
  • 3.5. Eaton 48V full hybrid truck

4. 48V MH CARS BY MANUFACTURER

  • 4.1. Alfa Romeo Italy
  • 4.2. Aston Martin Lagonda UK
  • 4.3. Audi Germany
  • 4.4. Bentley UK
  • 4.5. BMW Germany
  • 4.6. Buick USA
  • 4.7. Cadillac USA
  • 4.8. Chang'an Motors China
  • 4.9. FAW China
  • 4.10. FCA USA/ Italy
  • 4.11. Ferrari Italy
  • 4.12. Ford USA
  • 4.13. Geely China
  • 4.14. General Motors USA
  • 4.15. Honda Japan
  • 4.16. Hyundai Korea
  • 4.17. Jaguar Land Rover UK
  • 4.18. Jeep USA
  • 4.19. Kia Korea
  • 4.20. Mahindra & Mahindra India
  • 4.21. Mazda Japan
  • 4.22. Mercedes-Benz Germany
  • 4.23. MG Morris Garages India
  • 4.24. Mitsubishi Motors Japan
  • 4.25. Nissan Japan
  • 4.26. Porsche Germany
  • 4.27. PSA France
  • 4.28. RAM USA
  • 4.29. Renault France
  • 4.30. SAIC-GM China
  • 4.31. Subaru Japan
  • 4.32. SsangYong Korea
  • 4.33. Skoda Czech Republic
  • 4.34. Suzuki Japan
  • 4.35. Tata Motors India
  • 4.36. Toyota Japan
  • 4.37. Volkswagen Germany
  • 4.38. Volvo Motors Sweden

5. 48V MH TRUCKS

  • 5.1. Volvo Group
  • 5.2. Class 8 trucks: Nikola fuel cell left or Tesla battery right?
  • 5.3. US DOE Supertruck program
  • 5.4. AVID first 48V hybrid truck
  • 5.5. Renault

6. MOTOR GENERATORS

  • 6.1. Rotating electric machines REM: e-machines
    • 6.1.1. Technology choices
    • 6.1.2. Great improvements needed and possible
  • 6.2. Evolution to multifunctional rotating machines
  • 6.3. Ssangyong, Bosch, Federal Mogul CPT and other views
  • 6.4. Bosch "E-Machine"
  • 6.5. Federal Mogul Powertrain CPT
  • 6.6. Delphi 48V MH motor generator
  • 6.7. Mercedes
  • 6.8. Borg Warner
  • 6.9. Volabo

7. BATTERIES, SUPERCAPACITORS, PHOTOVOLTAICS

  • 7.1. Overview
  • 7.2. Better batteries and supercapacitors coming: W/kg vs Wh/kg
  • 7.3. Geely and Maxwell announcements
  • 7.4. Some benefits of supercapacitors
  • 7.5. Supercapacitors in the automotive sector: examples
  • 7.6. Supercapacitors in the on-road automotive sector 2010-2030
  • 7.7. Powertrain penetration by supercapacitors
  • 7.8. Supercapacitors and their derivatives: device physics
  • 7.9. Structural supercapacitors ZapGo, Lamborghini, MIT, Imperial College
  • 7.10. Photovoltaic bodywork
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