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美中貿易戰:禁止進口Huawei、ZTE等措施對全球通訊設備供應鏈的影響

The Impact of China-US Trade Fight and Huawei and ZTE Bans on the Global Communications Equipment Supply Chain

出版商 MIC - Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute 商品編碼 906603
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 64 Pages
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美中貿易戰:禁止進口Huawei、ZTE等措施對全球通訊設備供應鏈的影響 The Impact of China-US Trade Fight and Huawei and ZTE Bans on the Global Communications Equipment Supply Chain
出版日期: 2019年08月15日內容資訊: 英文 64 Pages
簡介

本報告分析了近來的美中經濟戰爭對全球及中國、台灣通訊設備業界(供應鏈)帶來的影響,並統整了衝突背景情況、雙方對IT、通訊產業的影響、大型企業(ZTE、Apple等)的具體情況、對中國、美國、台灣網路業界的影響、對短期、中期、長期業界趨勢的影響、中國可能採取的對策、美國以外國家的趨勢預測等資訊。

第1章 序論

  • 背景情況
  • 影響程度範圍
    • IT、通訊產業
    • 從中國出口到美國的名牌產品及OEM/ODM產品趨勢

第2章 在中國本土製造的台灣企業通訊設備

  • 智慧型手機業界
  • 無線寬頻通訊設備業界
  • 固網寬頻通訊設備業界
    • 生產額
    • 主要客戶

第3章 對於各業界的潛在影響力

  • 智慧型手機業界
  • 無線寬頻通訊設備業界
  • 固網寬頻通訊設備業界
    • 出口額
    • 利害相關者分析

第4章 MIC的見解

第5章 序論

第6章 對ZTE供應鏈的影響程度

  • 應用程式中央處理器無線通訊晶片
  • 高週波 (RF) 零件
  • OS (作業系統)
    • 市場現狀
    • 最適合下單的地點 (候補地點)

第7章 對ZTE於5G市場野心的影響程度

  • 制裁措施 - 禁止使用美國製軟硬體 - ZTE受到的壞影響
    • 缺乏獨自開發核心晶片或零件的能力,會成為往後問題
    • 美國意圖阻止中國開發5G,以ZTE為目標發動攻擊

第8章 MIC的見解

第9章 序論

  • iPhone:成為美中貿易戰殺手鑭的可能性

第10章 影響程度分析

  • iPhone:佔了美國智慧型手機市場42%以上
  • 對供應鏈的影響程度

第11章 對策

  • 短期策略:調整既有設備,轉移到台灣國內增產
  • 中長期策略:提高南亞/東南亞各國的生產佔比

第12章 MIC的見解

第13章 序論

  • 衝突激化,兩方都不讓步

第14章 美國、中國網路產業趨勢

  • 美國的市場支配與中國的挑戰
  • 中國製間諜晶片事件:世界各國對網路資安提高警覺

第15章 對台灣網路產業的影響程度

  • 對台灣網路產業連帶結構的影響程度小
  • 在網路資安的廣大影響:部分供應商將生產線移往中國

第16章 MIC的見解

  • 目前美中關係將持續緊張
  • 對網路產業的影響有限
  • 中國製間諜晶片問題:加速生產線轉移至中國境外

第17章 部分國家、通訊企業禁止使用Huawei製網路設備

第18章 對中國企業缺乏信賴:主要原因

  • 政府支援Huawei進軍世界
  • 中國企業在中國的法理體系下無法維持獨立
    • 中國政府加強對企業管制
    • 制定可經由企業收集資訊的法律

第19章 Huawei保衛設備安全

  • Huawei主張自己公司的安全管理能力與不受政府影響的獨立性
  • Huawei保證改良安全機能以獲得西方各國信賴

第20章 許多法人客戶持續使用Huawei裝置

  • Huawei在亞太地區地最大損失:在日本市佔率下降
  • 歐洲市場:除了英國,Huawei皆維持著市佔率
    • 歐洲許多通訊業者仍與Huawei保持合作關係
    • 即使德國政府表示對Huawei的安全性有疑慮,通訊業者卻不同調
    • Huawei在5G的高度優勢,令通訊業者難以斷絕關係

第21章 Huawei未來面臨的政治風險

  • Huawei未來也會持續面臨政治風險
  • 無論哪個國家的政府或業者都可能強化制裁
  • ZTE:對於美國政府禁止出口買分買中國製產品有應注意的必要

第22章 MIC的見解

  • 對Huawei品牌形象的影響程度比對市場獲益額的影響還大

第23章 G20高峰會議

  • 在G20高峰會議期間的美中首腦聲明
  • 川普政權對Huawei的禁止進口命令與美國科技企業的迴避對策

第24章 短期、中期、長期的發展傾向

  • 短期發展:情況改善
  • 中期發展:與美國以外的供應鏈加強關係
  • 長期發展:在國內建立產業連帶結構

第25章 對業界的影響程度

第26章 MIC的見解

  • 從美國企業開始的市場機會摸索
  • 以擴大產業連帶結構消除國內經濟落差
  • 使供應鏈多樣化以減輕風險

附錄

分析對像企業

  • Airoha Technology
  • Alcatel
  • Alibaba
  • Altice
  • Amazo
  • Apple
  • ARM
  • ASE
  • AT&T
  • AutoNavi
  • Baidu
  • Beijing Changjiu Logistics
  • Beijing Hyundai
  • Best Buy
  • Bloomberg
  • BMW
  • Bouygues Telecom
  • British Telecom
  • Broadcom
  • BT
  • Catcher Technology
  • CNBC. Coke Cola
  • Compeq
  • Delta
  • Der Spiegel
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Flexium Interconnect
  • Foxconn
  • Futurewei Technologies
  • Genius Electronic Optical
  • GIS
  • HiSilicon
  • HPE
  • HTC
  • Huawei. IBM. Infineon
  • Inspur
  • Inventec
  • KDDI
  • KINSUS
  • KT
  • KY
  • KYEC
  • Largan Precision
  • Lenovo
  • LG
  • Maxscend Microelectronics
  • MediaTek
  • Merry
  • Mitac
  • Motorola
  • Murata
  • 日本電信電話 (NTT)
  • NTT DoCoMo
  • OPPO
  • Optus
  • Orange
  • 松下
  • Pegatron
  • Play
  • Qorvo
  • Qualcomm
  • Quanta
  • Reuters
  • Samsung
  • Simplo
  • Sina
  • SKT
  • SkyCom
  • Skyworks
  • SoftBank
  • 索尼
  • Spark
  • SPIL
  • Stiftung Neue Verantwortung
  • Sugon
  • 太陽誘電
  • TCL
  • TDK
  • TDK EPCOS
  • Telefonia Dialog
  • Telefonica Deutschland
  • Telefonica O2
  • Tencent
  • Three
  • TI
  • TIM
  • Tizen
  • TPK
  • Tsinghua Unigroup
  • TSMC
  • Unigroup Spreadtrum RDA
  • United States Census Bureau
  • Verizon
  • VIVO
  • Vodafone
  • Vodafone Hutchison Australia
  • Walsin Technology
  • WIN Semiconductors
  • Wingtech
  • Winnebago
  • Wistron
  • Xiaomi
  • Zhen Ding
  • ZTE
目錄
Product Code: MCRPT19081501

To keep his campaign promise, Trump signed an executive memorandum to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States in March 2018, involving large amounts and plenty of goods. In the first two rounds of tariffs, the US has imposed duties on a total of US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods, including semiconductor Ics, car parts, machinery, and equipment, including servers. And smartphones are likely to be on the list. The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed a denial order against ZTE on April 16, 2018, banning American businesses or individuals from selling high-tech components and technologies to the Chinese telecom equipment maker. Despite the ban has been expanded to Huawei, the G20 Summit seems to help ratchet down the trade fight between the US and China. This report provides a description of how this all began, a whole picture of these bans and tariffs, and how these have affected the global IT industry, especially in the communications sector; looks at some of the possible consequences if the fight continues.

Table of Contents

1. Preface

  • 1.1. Background
  • 1.2. Scope of Impact
    • 1.1.1. IT and Telecom Industries
    • 1.1.2. Brands and OEM/ODMs Export Goods from China to the United States

2. Taiwanese Communications Products Manufacturered in China

  • 2.1. Smartphone Industry
    • 2.2.1. Production Value
    • 2.2.2. Major Clients
  • 2.3. Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
    • 2.3.1. Production Value
    • 2.3.2. Major Clients
  • 2.4. Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
    • 2.4.1. Production Value
    • 2.4.2. Major Clients

3. The Possible Impact on the Industry

  • 3.1. Smartphone Industry
    • 3.1.1. Export Value
    • 3.1.2. Stakeholder Analysis
  • 3.2. Wireless Broadband Equipment Industry
    • 3.2.1. Export Value
    • 3.2.2. Stakeholder Analysis
  • 3.3. Fixed Broadband Equipment Industry
    • 3.3.1. Export Value
    • 3.3.2. Stakeholder Analysis

4. MIC Perspective

5.Preface

6.Implications for the ZTE Supply Chain

  • 6.1. Application Processor and Wireless Communication Chip
    • 6.1.1. The Current Market
    • 6.1.2. Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
  • 6.2. Radio Frequency Component
    • 6.2.1. The Current Market
    • 6.2.2. Possible Places to Transfer the Orders
  • 6.3. Operating System
    • 6.3.1. The Current Market
    • 6.3.2. Possible Places to Transfer the Orders

7. Implications for ZTE's 5G Ambitions

  • 7.1. The Denial Order Seeks to Stifle ZTE's Development Momentum by Barring the Use of American Software and Hardware
    • 7.1.1. The Incapability to Conduct Independent R&D for Core Chips and Components Has Become a Major Issue
    • 7.1.2. The U.S. is Determined to Cripple China's 5G Development, and the Shots are Being Fired at ZTE

8. MIC Perspective

9.Preface

  • 9.1. iPhone Likely to Become a Bargaining Chip in US-China Trade War

10.Impact Analysis

  • 10.1. iPhone Accounts for over 42% of the Smartphone Imports in the United States
  • 10.2. Impact on Supply Chain

11.Countermeasures

  • 11.1. Short-term Strategy: Adjust Existing Capacity to Increase Production in Taiwan
  • 11.2. Mid-to Long-Term Strategy: Increase Production Share in South/Southeast Asia

12.MIC Perspective

13. Preface

  • 13.1. Conflict Intensifies as Neither Side Willing to Make Concessions

14. Development of US and Chinese Server Industries

  • 14.1. US Dominance Challenged by China
  • 14.2. China’s Spy Chip Incidents Ignites Network Security Concerns Worldwide

15. Impact on Taiwan’s Server Industry

  • 15.1. Less Impact on Taiwanese Server Industry Chain
  • 15.2. Greater Impact on Server Industry from Network Security Concerns; Some Vendors Move Production Lines out of China

16. MIC Perspective

  • 16.1. US-China Relations Remain Tense in Near Future
  • 16.2. Limited Impact on Server Industry
  • 16.3. Chinese Spy Chip Scandal Speeds up Moving Production Lines outside China

17. Huawei Network Equipment Banned by Several Countries and Telecoms

18.Main Reasons behind Lack of Trust in Chinese Enterprises

  • 18.1. Huawei’s Global Expansion Backed by Government
  • 18.2. Chinese Enterprises’ Difficulty in Maintaining Independence under China’s Legal System
    • 18.2.1. Chinese Government’s Increased Control over Chinese Enterprises
    • 18.2.2. Chinese Government’s Legitimate Rights to Conduct Intelligence through Enterprises

19. Huawei Defends Equipment Security

  • 19.1. Huawei Asserts Ability to Manage its Security and Keep Independence from the Government
  • 19.2. Huawei Proposes Security Improvement Measurements to Win Trust of Western Countries

20. Most Enterprise Customers Still Hold on to Huawei Equipment

  • 20.1. Huawei's Biggest Loss in the Asia Pacific is the Loss of Market Share in Japan
  • 20.2. Huawei's Market Share in Europe Remains Unaffected Except BT
    • 20.2.1. Other European Operators Still Cooperate with Huawei
    • 20.2.2. Germany Government Has Security Concerns about Huawei's Technology but Not Telecom Operators
    • 20.2.3. Huawei's 5G Product Advantages Make it Difficult for Telecom Operators to Give Up Easily

21. Political Risks That Huawei May Have to Encounter in the Future

  • 21.1. Huawei Continues to Face Political Risks in the Future
  • 21.2. Governments and Operators of All Countries Have High Possibility of Expanding the Blockade
  • 21.3. ZTE Should Be Worried About the US Government Bans on All China-made Products

22. MIC Perspective

  • 22.1. The Impact on Huawei’s Brand Image is Greater than on Its Revenues

23.G20. Summit

  • 23.1. G2’s Announcements in G20 Summit
  • 23.2. US Tech Companies Sidestep Trump’s Huawei Ban

24.Short-, Medium-, and Long-term Development Trends

  • 24.1. Short-term Development: Situation Seems to Get Better
  • 24.2. Medium-term Development: To Strengthen Ties with Non-US Suppliers
  • 24.3. Long-term Development: To Construct Homegrown Industry Chain

25.Impact on the Industry

26.MIC Perspective

  • 26.1. Seek Opportunities Stemming from US Companies
  • 26.2. Help China Bridge the Gap in the Industry Supply Chain
  • 26.3. Diversify Supply Chain to Reduce Risks

Appendix

  • Glossary of Terms
  • List of Companies

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Tariffs and Prices of iPhone X in Different Countries
  • Table 2: Impact of US-China Trade War on Apple’s Taiwanese Partners
  • Table 3: Analysis of EMS Providers’ Production Sites
  • Table 4: Major US Trading Partners in 2017
  • Table 5: Bans on Huawei Equipment Worldwide

List of Topics

  • Background of the China-US trade fight and the general impact on the IT and telecom industries
  • Analysis of the impact on Taiwanese communications equipment manufactured in China for the smartphone, wireless broadband equipment, and fixed broadband equipment industries from the production value and major client perspectives
  • The implications of the China-US trade fight for the ZTE supply chain, comprising of application processors and wireless communication chips, RF components, and operating systems; the implications for ZTE’s 5G ambitions
  • Analysis of the impact on the Apple iPhone and its supply chain and includes countermeasures and strategies of stakeholders in the short-, medium, and long-term.
  • Analysis of the impact on the server industry in China, the US, and Taiwan, and includes countermeasures and strategies of stakeholders in the short-, medium, and long-term
  • The reasons and political risks behind the Huawei and ZTE bans and what Huawei has done to defend its equipment security; how enterprises around the world react or have reacted to the bans, especially those in Japan, and Europe
  • The short-, medium, and long-term development trends and the impact on the industry following the G20 Summit

Companies covered:

  • Airoha Technology
  • Alcatel
  • Alibaba
  • Altice
  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • ARM
  • ASE
  • AT&T
  • AutoNavi
  • Baidu
  • Beijing Changjiu Logistics
  • Beijing Hyundai
  • Best Buy
  • Bloomberg
  • BMW
  • Bouygues Telecom
  • British Telecom
  • Broadcom
  • BT
  • Catcher Technology
  • CNBC. Coke Cola
  • Compeq
  • Delta
  • Der Spiegel
  • Deutsche Telekom
  • Flexium Interconnect
  • Foxconn
  • Futurewei Technologies
  • Genius Electronic Optical
  • GIS
  • HiSilicon
  • HPE
  • HTC
  • Huawei. IBM. Infineon
  • Inspur
  • Inventec
  • KDDI
  • KINSUS
  • KT
  • KY
  • KYEC
  • Largan Precision
  • Lenovo
  • LG
  • Maxscend Microelectronics
  • MediaTek
  • Merry
  • Mitac
  • Motorola
  • Murata
  • NTT
  • NTT Docomo
  • OPPO
  • Optus
  • Orange
  • Panasonic
  • Pegatron
  • Play
  • Qorvo
  • Qualcomm
  • Quanta
  • Reuters
  • Samsung
  • Simplo
  • Sina
  • SKT
  • SkyCom
  • Skyworks
  • SoftBank
  • Sony
  • Spark
  • SPIL
  • Stiftung Neue Verantwortung
  • Sugon
  • Taiyo Yuden
  • TCL
  • TDK
  • TDK EPCOS
  • Telefonia Dialog
  • Telefónica Deutschland
  • Telefónica O2
  • Tencent
  • Three
  • TI
  • TIM
  • Tizen
  • TPK
  • Tsinghua Unigroup
  • TSMC
  • Unigroup Spreadtrum RDA
  • United States Census Bureau
  • Verizon
  • VIVO
  • Vodafone
  • Vodafone Hutchison Australia
  • Walsin Technology
  • WIN Semiconductors
  • Wingtech
  • Winnebago
  • Wistron
  • Xiaomi
  • Zhen Ding
  • ZTE
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