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市場調查報告書

2020-2025年中國電信產業報告

China Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025

出版商 Idem Est Advisory & Research 商品編碼 939494
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 65 Pages
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價格
2020-2025年中國電信產業報告 China Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
出版日期: 2020年05月29日內容資訊: 英文 65 Pages
簡介

行動用戶以及固定寬頻網路用戶數量在2019年到2025年之間,將會持續推動電信市場的成長。過去6年內有超過1億6千萬人成為網路用戶,到2025年為止的6年內預計將會有1億8千萬人的網路用戶連接網路。人口增加是行動營運商的主要成長原因。根據行動數據費用的基準研究,中國過去3年來每GB的成本降低幅度最大,而印度每GB的成本僅下降幾美分,而新加坡價格仍然偏高。 中國在2020年預計會有約5億人成為5G用戶,此數量到2025年為止有可能達到6億人(約佔全球5G用戶的40%左右)

此報告研究中國電信產業,分析電信市場整體趨勢,資本投資,行動用戶數量及收入,寬頻用戶數量,車載資通訊系統基礎設施,以及主要企業

第1章 主要統計

  • 爭國人口
  • 中國家庭
  • 中國的GDP

第2章 COVID-19的影響

第3章 整體電信市場

  • 市場概述
  • 中國爭奪5G以後的主導地位
  • 歷年來通信市場收入
  • 整體電信市場預測
  • 電信市場資本支出
    • 電信設備投資實際成績
    • 資本到收入:國家基準
    • 設備投資到GDP:國家基準
    • 電信設備投資支出預測

第4章 電信營運商介紹

  • 中國行動介紹
    • 中國的行動收入與EBITDA組合
  • 中國聯通簡介
    • 中國聯通的收入與EBITDA組合
  • 中國電信簡介
    • 中國電信集團收入與EBITDA組合
  • 中國鐵塔股份公司簡介
    • 中國鐵塔公司收入,EBITDA和資本支出

第5章 行動市場

  • 行動用戶數量的實際成績和預測
    • 行動用戶數量實際成績
    • 行動用戶數量的市佔率
    • 中國的智慧型手機市佔率
    • 中國的行動用戶數量預測
  • 行動收入的實際成績和預測
    • 中國的行動服務收入實際成績
    • 行動服務收入預測
    • 行動業者ARPU
  • Spectrum Holdings
    • 頻譜價格與規範
    • 5G開發與啟動
    • 行動頻率組合分析
    • 各國的頻譜深度基準
  • 行動下載數據及價格走向
  • 行動速度測試
    • Ookla Mobile的速度測試
  • 物聯網

第6章 寬頻市場

  • 實際上加入固定寬頻的成績
  • 加入固定寬頻數量之預測

第7章 電信基礎設施的投資

  • 固定基礎設施
    • 政府計劃
    • 海底電纜
  • 行動通信基地台基礎設施格局
  • 5G的準備
  • 基地台密度基準
  • 電信基礎設施的比較

    第8章 主題/機會

    • 規模擴大-整合
    • 範圍擴大-橫跨業界
      • 電子商務
    • 新興電信業務模式
      • 多重基礎設施的魅力
    • 5G vs. 固定
      • 5G概述
      • 5G-相對的設備投資與頻率範圍
      • 固定寬頻網路可以長期且大規模工作

    第9章 電信併購交易數據庫

    第10章 研究方法

    第11章 關於著作權的相關通知

  • 目錄

    WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE CHINA TELECOMS REPORT:

    • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
    • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
    • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
    • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
    • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
    • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
    • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

    The ‘China Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025’ includes a comprehensive review of the Chinese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    China Telecoms Report at a Glance

    Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Chinese telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Growing mobile phone penetration and high fixed broadband take-up among households will fuel future growth over the next five years.

    According to our China Telecoms Report, Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions and fixed broadband subscribers will continue to fuel the telecoms sector growth in the 2019-25 period. More than 160m people became Internet users over the last in six years and another 180m more Internet users are expected to come online over the next six years by 2025.

    Following the market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2025, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.

    The Chinese government is the largest shareholder in all three Telecommunications Service providers (TSPs), swaying a large influence on strategy, network investments and pricing to the operators and putting great emphasis on developing the country's telecommunications infrastructure as it is so tightly related to developing the national economy and strengthening national unification.

    The strategic and economic competition between the US and China is at the centre of advanced technology competition and the future of global data and communications. Gaining strategic and economic power is depending heavily on having technological ascendancy, as one of the most salient feature of China's vision of its China Dream and "the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".

    Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to continue its growth through to 2025 after a marked in mobile service revenue from 2018 and 2019 putting pressure on mobile ARPU.

    Capex Investments

    The Capex from Chinese operators is cyclical with mobile rollout leading to investments in line with the operators' top-line growth. Capex investments peaked between 2015 and 2016 while all three operators built their respective 4G mobile network and is now declining to lower level in 2019 but will increase again from 2020 through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand. The Capex to GDP ratio spiked between 2015 and 2017 and its started to slide from 2017 onwards.

    5G is the backbone of a wide range of technological advances including autonomous vehicles, smart cities and Internet of Things. To that effect, China is stepping up the long march to 5G with the government directing its 3 operators to accelerate 5G network constructions despite the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

    Idem Est Research projects a significant increase in Capex spend throughout 2020 alone by installing more 5G base stations across all cities, ramping up China's 5G rollout nationwide and consolidating its 5G network leadership in terms of subscribers and availability in the country.

    Operator Profiles

    The Chinese three-player mobile market is a remarkably stable market with three established state-owned mobile and fixed operators competing under the direction of the Central Government providing directions for network speed upgrades, mobile data tariffs reduction and future investments policy on 5G and FTTH.

    Most operators lost revenue and EBITDA share to China Mobile over the last six years and China Telecom started to recover in 2019, improving its EBITDA. China Unicom lost both revenue and EBITDA share while cost reduction measures started to flow in 2019 with improving EBITDA and cash flow.

    Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

    Average annual mobile revenue growth was lower (0.1%) than mobile service subscriptions growth (4.6%) during the period 2014-2019, highlighting the structural challenges faced by mobile operators. Declining voice & SMS revenue only partially offset by wireless data monetisation is putting pressure on ARPU, compounded by a reduction of dual-SIM cards feature, driving the lower growth in mobile subscriptions.

    Population growth is a major growth driver for mobile operators, a slowdown in mobile subscriptions growth which will put long term pressure, dialling up competition for the three mobile operators fighting for fewer new customers.

    According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, China had the biggest cost reduction per GB over the last 3 years, while India has the lowest rate in the world with just a few cents per GB and Singapore remains expensive.

    Idem Est Research estimates that China could finish 2020 with about 200m 5G subscribers and that this number could rise to as many as 600m by 2025 (making up about 40% of 5G subscribers worldwide).

    Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push to Gigabit Speeds

    The fixed broadband market is experiencing strong growth mostly driven by China Mobile's push into the market over the last six years to become the market leader. Fixed broadband subscriptions are very affordable in China generating lower ARPU than than a mobile subscription, a market singularity as in most markets, fixed broadband services are usually at least twice more expensive than mobile services.

    Fixed broadband penetration is forecasted to grow modestly as China's investments on full-fibre networks are now reaching maturity with off with affordable packages and increased broadband household penetration growing towards saturation.

    Meanwhile fixed broadband customers opted to upgrade their connections with over 85% of subscribers opting for FTTH subscriptions with speeds over 100Mbps,

    Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

    Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

    Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

    ‘China Telecoms Report’ transactions database analysis highlights the dearth of inbound (domestic) transactions in the Chinese telecommunications services market, with the largest transaction being the telecommunications operators shifting assets to an infrastructure entity, China Tower Co. However, in the short to medium term, the telco sector is unlikely to experience corporate activity with the government controlling the sector and with telecommunications remaining a strategic sector with a low level of debts. Most transactions are expected in the data centre, IoT and cloud computing sector with many private sector operators and large technology companies such as Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba.

    The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

    KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS CHINA TELECOMS REPORT:

    Beijing RLZY, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Tower, China Unicom, Dr Peng, Guodong, Miteno, Sino Netstone, Tietong, Zhejiang WanXing.

    Table of Contents

    1. Key Statistics

    • 1.1. China Population
    • 1.2. China Households
    • 1.3. China's GDP

    2. COVID-19 Impact

    3. Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025

    • 3.1. Market Overview
    • 3.2. China's Race to Lead in 5G and Beyond
    • 3.3. Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
    • 3.4. Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
    • 3.5. Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
      • 3.5.1. Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
      • 3.5.2. Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
      • 3.5.3. Capex to GDP Benchmark
      • 3.5.4. Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2019-2025

    4. Telecommunications Operators Profile

    • 4.1. China Mobile Profile
      • 4.1.1. China Mobile Revenue and EBITDA Mix
    • 4.2. China Unicom Profile
      • 4.2.1. China Unicom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
    • 4.3. China telecom Profile
      • 4.3.1. China Telecom Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix
    • 4.4. China Tower Co Profile
      • 4.4.1. China Tower Co Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014 - 2019

    5. Mobile Market

    • 5.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
      • 5.1.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
      • 5.1.2. Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
      • 5.1.3. China Smartphone Share, 2019
      • 5.1.4. China Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
    • 5.2. Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
      • 5.2.1. Historical China Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
      • 5.2.2. Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
      • 5.2.3. Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
    • 5.3. Spectrum Holdings
      • 5.3.1. Spectrum Pricing and Regulation
      • 5.3.2. 5G Development and Launches
      • 5.3.3. Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
      • 5.3.1. Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
    • 5.4. Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
    • 5.5. Mobile Speed Tests
      • 5.5.1. Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
    • 5.6. Internet of Things (IoT)

    6. Broadband Market

    • 6.1. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
    • 6.2. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

    7. Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments

    • 7.1. Fixed Infrastructure
      • 7.1.1. Government Plans
      • 7.1.2. Submarine Cables
    • 7.2. Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
      • 7.2.1. Getting Ready for 5G
      • 7.2.2. Tower Density Benchmark
    • 7.3. Telco Infrastructure Comparative

    8. Thematics / Opportunities

    • 8.1. Going for Scale - Consolidation
    • 8.2. Going for Scope - Cross-Industry
      • 8.2.1. e-Commerce
    • 8.3. New Telecoms Operating Model
      • 8.3.1. The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
    • 8.4. 5G versus Fixed
      • 8.4.1. 5G Overview
      • 8.4.2. 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
      • 8.4.3. Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

    9. Telco M&A Transaction Database

    10 Methodology

    11 Copyright Notice

    List of Figures

    • Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in China
    • Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (RMB m), 2014 - 2019
    • Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market Revenue Pool, 2019
    • Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA Pool, 2019
    • Figure 5 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2019
    • Figure 6 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (RMB bn), 2019-2025
    • Figure 7 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
    • Figure 8 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
    • Figure 9 - Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
    • Figure 10 - China Mobile Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
    • Figure 11 - China Mobile Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (RMB m)
    • Figure 12 - China Unicom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
    • Figure 13 - China Unicom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (RMB m)
    • Figure 14 - China Telecom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
    • Figure 15 - China Telecom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (RMB m)
    • Figure 16 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
    • Figure 17 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2019
    • Figure 18 - Mobile Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2015-2019
    • Figure 19 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
    • Figure 20 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast (RMB bn), 2018-2025
    • Figure 21 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (RMB), 2014-2025
    • Figure 22 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
    • Figure 23 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2019
    • Figure 24 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
    • Figure 25 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
    • Figure 26 - Ookla Mobile Speedtest Speed and Ranking Comparison
    • Figure 27 - Spectrum available and IoT Landscape in China
    • Figure 28 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
    • Figure 29 - China Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2015-2019
    • Figure 30 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
    • Figure 31 - Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
    • Figure 32 - Tower per Capita, 2019
    • Figure 33 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
    • Figure 34 - 5G Network Slices Structure
    • Figure 35 - Effect of Frequency on Range
    • Figure 36 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
    • Figure 37 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
    • Figure 38 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

    List of Tables

    • Table 1 - China - Key Statistics
    • Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2014-2019
    • Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018-2025
    • Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
    • Table 5 - Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2018-2025
    • Table 6 - Historical China Mobile Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, FY14-FY19
    • Table 7 - Historical China Unicom Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
    • Table 8 - Historical China Telecom Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
    • Table 9 - Historical China Tower Co Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
    • Table 10 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
    • Table 11 - China Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
    • Table 12 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
    • Table 13 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
    • Table 14 - Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
    • Table 15 - Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
    • Table 16 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
    • Table 17 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
    • Table 18 - China Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
    • Table 19 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in China
    • Table 20 - China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, China Tower and Guodong Infrastructure Landscape
    • Table 21 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
    • Table 22 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
    • Table 23 - Telco Transaction Database, 2009-2020