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市場調查報告書

馬來西亞的通訊產業報告:2020-2025年

Malaysia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025

出版商 Idem Est Advisory & Research 商品編碼 925960
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 58 Pages
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馬來西亞的通訊產業報告:2020-2025年 Malaysia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
出版日期: 2020年02月18日內容資訊: 英文 58 Pages
簡介

馬來西亞的通訊市場以4大行動公司與1個固定通訊大公司為中心構成,政治的不確定性雖然部分存在,但是是支撐強力的經濟基本面的穩定成長發展的市場。手機用戶預計從2019年到2025年持續增加,預計固定寬頻用戶也相同地繼續增加。

本報告提供馬來西亞的通訊產業調查,人口等國內主要統計,整體市場收益及CAPEX的變化、預測,通訊業者的簡介,行動&加入寬頻的用戶數及收益的變化、預測,通訊基礎設施投資趨勢,市場機會分析等彙整資料。

第1章 主要統計

  • 馬來西亞的人口
  • 馬來西亞的家庭數
  • 馬來西亞的GDP

第2章 通訊市場整體變化、預測

  • 市場概要
  • 收益變化
  • 市場預測
  • CAPEX的變化、預測
    • CAPEX:過去的轉變
    • CAPEX、收益的基準
    • CAPEX支出預測

第3章 通訊業者的簡介

  • Telekom Malaysia
    • 收益、EBITDA結構
  • Maxis
    • 收益、EBITDA結構
  • Celcom
    • 收益、EBITDA結構
  • DiGi
    • 收益、EBITDA結構
  • TIMe dotCOM
    • 收益、EBITDA結構
  • 其他
    • U Mobile
    • 其他

第4章 行動市場

  • 手機用戶數的變化、預測
    • 手機用戶數的變化
    • 手機用戶的市場佔有率
    • 智慧型手機的佔有率
    • 手機用戶數的預測
  • 行動收益的變化、預測
    • 行動收益變化
    • 行動收益的市場佔有率
    • 行動收益的預測
    • 手機用戶數的ARPU
  • 頻寬
    • 現有頻寬、5G試用
    • 今後的5G競標
    • 行動頻寬組合分析
  • 行動下載資料、費用趨勢
  • 行動速度實驗
    • Ookla
  • IoT

第5章 寬頻市場

  • 固定加入寬頻的用戶數的變化
  • 固定加入寬頻的用戶數的預測

第6章 通訊基礎設施投資

  • 固定基礎設施
    • 政府的計劃: HSBB、NFCP
    • 海底電纜
  • 行動塔基礎設施環境
  • 通訊基礎設施比較

第7章 課題、市場機會

  • 規模
  • 範圍
  • 通訊業者的新運用模式
  • 5G vs 固定

第8章 通訊業者的交易資料庫

第9章 調查手法

第10章 版權聲明

目錄

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Malaysian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review
  • Telco Transaction Database

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE MALAYSIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

‘The Malaysia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025’ includes a comprehensive review of the Malaysia market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Malaysia Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

The Malaysian telecommunications market is a thriving mobile market with four large network operators, an incumbent fixed-line provider with near-monopoly and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, albeit some political uncertainties.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2010, sliding down every year since then.

Mobile subscribers numbers and revenue are growing strongly and the back of population growth and the market shift to postpaid.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2017 and 2018 due to legacy voice revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but has been sliding in 2019 and is expected to remain at the same level through to 2025. Telekom Malaysia nearly halved its Capex in 2019 while Maxis, Celcom and Digi have more consistent investment profiles.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

Over the last five years, the market shifted to postpaid as subscribers move to with increased data allowances. Overall, the number of prepaid subscribers decreased significantly. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to legacy prepaid voice and SMS to data-centric usage increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Malaysia has the highest monthly download per user while pricing per GB decreased by half for Malaysian users.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless

The National Fiberisation and Connectivity Plan (NFCP) is a Malaysian government program of building full-fibre networks to homes, businesses and government buildings covering 98% of the population by the end of 2023 with minimum speeds of 30Mbps and 500Mbps in urban areas and gigabit speeds in industrial areas. It is a public-private partnership of the government with four companies with a total government investment of RM11 billion.

The broadband market is now experiencing low growth mostly driven by low competition with Telekom Malaysia remaining the dominant fixed broadband incumbent.

Households growth and new investments by Maxis, TIME dotCom and YTL will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Idem Est Research predicts the next wave of transactions is likely to continue being about “scale” among small ISPs and largely about infrastructure for Telekom Malaysia, Maxis, Axiata and Digi.

In most markets, telcos operators increasingly find inorganic market growth very challenging, provided the limited scope for M&A due to regulatory barriers.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:

Altel, Astro, Axiata, Celcom, Digi, edotco, Maxis, REDtone, Sacofa, Telekom Malaysia, TIME dotCom, Usaha Tegas, U Mobile, ViewQuest and YTL.

Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics

  • 1.1. Malaysia Population
  • 1.2. Malaysian Households
  • 1.3. Malaysia's GDP

2. Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025

  • 2.1. Market Overview
  • 2.2. Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
  • 2.3. Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
  • 2.4. Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
    • 2.4.1. Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
    • 2.4.2. Capex to Revenue Benchmark
    • 2.4.3. Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3. Telecommunications Operators Profile

  • 3.1. Telekom Malaysia Profile
    • 3.1.1. Telekom Malaysia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.2. Maxis Profile
    • 3.2.1. Maxis Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.1. Celcom Profile
    • 3.1.1. Celcom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.2. DiGi Profile
    • 3.2.1. Digi Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.3. TIMe dotCOM Profile
    • 3.3.1. TIME dotCom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.4. Other Players Profile
    • 3.4.1. U Mobile
    • 3.4.2. Other Telecoms Operators

4. Mobile market

  • 4.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.1.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.2. Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.3. Malaysia Smartphone Share, 2019
    • 4.1.4. Malaysia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
  • 4.2. Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.2.1. Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2019
    • 4.2.1. Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2019
    • 4.2.2. Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
    • 4.2.3. Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
  • 4.3. Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.1. Existing Spectrum Holdings and 5G Trials
    • 4.3.2. Upcoming 5G Auctions
    • 4.3.3. Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
  • 4.4. Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
  • 4.5. Mobile Speed Tests
    • 4.5.1. Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
  • 4.6. Internet of Things (IoT)

5. Broadband Market

  • 5.1. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
  • 5.2. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

6. Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments

  • 6.1. Fixed Infrastructure
    • 6.1.1. Government Plans - HSBB and NFCP
    • 6.1.2. Submarine Cables
  • 6.2. Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
    • 6.2.1. Getting Ready for 5G
  • 6.3. Telco Infrastructure Comparative

7. Thematics / Opportunities

  • 7.1. Going for Scale
  • 7.2. Going for Scope
  • 7.3. New Telecoms Operating Model
    • 7.3.1. The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
  • 7.4. 5G versus Fixed
    • 7.4.1. 5G Overview
    • 7.4.2. Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8. Telco Transaction Database

9. Methodology

10. Copyright Notice

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Malaysia
  • Figure 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018
  • Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2018
  • Figure 4 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2019e
  • Figure 5 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019e
  • Figure 6 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
  • Figure 7 - Telekom Malaysia Service Revenue Mix, FY14-FY18
  • Figure 8 - Telekom Malaysia Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019e (RM m)
  • Figure 9 - Maxis Revenue Mix, 2016-2019
  • Figure 10 - Maxis Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 11 - Celcom Revenue and EBITDA (RM m), 2014-2019e
  • Figure 12 - Digi Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 13 - Digi Historical Revenue Mix, FY14 - FY19 (RM m)
  • Figure 14 - TIME Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 15 - Digi Historical Revenue Mix, FY14 - FY19 (RM m)
  • Figure 16 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 17 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
  • Figure 18 - Mobile Revenue Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 19 - Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 20 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (RM), 2014-2019
  • Figure 21 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
  • Figure 22 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
  • Figure 23 - Ookla Mobile Speedtest Ranking Comparison
  • Figure 24 - Spectrum available for IoT in Malaysia
  • Figure 25 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 26 - Malaysia Broadband Services by Speed Tiers
  • Figure 27 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 28 - Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
  • Figure 29 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
  • Figure 30 - 5G Network Slices Structure
  • Figure 31 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

List of Tables

  • Table 1 - Malaysia - Key Statistics
  • Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
  • Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
  • Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
  • Table 5 - Historical Telekom Malaysia Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, FY14-FY19e
  • Table 6 - Historical Maxis Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019e
  • Table 7 - Historical Celcom Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019e
  • Table 8 - Historical Digi Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 9 - Historical TIME dotCom Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 10 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019e
  • Table 11 - Malaysia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 12 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019e
  • Table 13 - Historical ‘Big 3' Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 14 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
  • Table 15 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 16 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 17 - Malaysia Brodband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 18 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing stations in Malaysia
  • Table 19 - Telekom Malaysia, Maxis, Digi, Axiata and TIME dotcom Telecoms Infrastructure Landscape
  • Table 20 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
  • Table 21 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
  • Table 22 - Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2019