全球行動電話市場預測:2020年∼2024年(2020年12月更新版)

全球行動電話的市場規模，預計從2019年出貨的17億9,540萬台，以10.4％的年複合成長率減少，2020年成為總合16億960萬台，到2024年全球減少到整體出貨台數為16億7,030萬台。因此導致從2019年到2024年的年複合成長率成為-1.4％。

本報告提供全球行動電話市場相關調查分析，各設備類型的全球行動電話出貨台數的5年預測。還有對技術供應商的建議，最新的市場預測，市場趨勢等系統性資訊。

IDC的市場預測圖

摘要整理

對技術供應商的建議

• 供應鏈多樣化
• 畫面，相機，電池持續有相關性

市場預測

• 各設備類型市場預測
  • 功能型手機
  • 智慧型手機
• 無線接口及無線接口群組市場預測
  • CDMA
  • GSM
  • UMTS/WCDMA
  • 4G
  • 5G
• 各ASP市場預測

市場情形

• 成長要素及阻礙因素
  • 成長要素
    • 更大的螢幕大小
    • 5G行動電話
  • 阻礙因素
    • COVID-19(新型冠狀病毒感染疾病)
    • 經濟
    • 市場飽和
    • 替換週期
• 主要的市場趨勢
  • Apple進入5G產業
• 上次預測後的變更點
  • LATAM(7.3％，2020)

市場定義

• 功能型手機
• 智慧型手機

調查方法

• 一次資料來源
• 二次來源
• IDC的全球行動電話追蹤(以季度為基礎)

相關調查

This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device type. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1,609.6 million unit shipments in 2020, down 10.4% from the 1,795.4 million units shipped in 2019. From there, total mobile phone shipments will dip to 1,670.3 million units worldwide by 2024, resulting in a CAGR of -1.4% from 2019 to 2024. "New holiday deals proved to be more powerful than the ongoing pandemic as smartphone shipments increase yet again compared with what we previously predicted," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager, IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Strong early demand for fourth-quarter flagships combined with robust trade-in offers has enticed consumers to take advantage of mouthwatering deals while they still exist. Events such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Singles Day have acted as an upgrade catalyst for consumers to take advantage of healthy promotions and price drops over the last month."

IDC Market Forecast Figure

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

• Diversify Your Supply Chain
• Screen, Camera, and Battery Remain Relevant

Market Forecast

• Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Device Type
  • Feature Phones
  • Smartphones
• Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by Air Interface and Air Interface Group
  • CDMA
  • GSM
  • UMTS/WCDMA
  • 4G
  • 5G
• Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast by ASP

Market Context

• Drivers and Inhibitors
  • Drivers
    • Larger Screen Sizes
    • 5G Handsets
  • Inhibitors
    • COVID-19
    • Economy
    • Market Saturation
    • Replacement Cycle
• Significant Market Developments
  • Apple Enters the World of 5G
• Changes from Prior Forecast
  • LATAM (7.3%, 2020)

Market Definition

• Feature Phone
• Smartphone

Methodology

• Primary Data Sources
• Secondary Sources
• IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker

Related Research