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New Zealand Telecommunications 2014-2018 Forecast and Analysis: Running to Stand Still

出版商 IDC 商品編碼 323392
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 136 Pages
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紐西蘭的通訊市場:預測與分析 New Zealand Telecommunications 2014-2018 Forecast and Analysis: Running to Stand Still
出版日期: 2015年01月23日 內容資訊: 英文 136 Pages







  • 調查手法



  • 固定市場
  • 光纖/RBI的發展趨勢
  • 主要的零售業者
  • 主要的法規趨勢與問題點
  • 商務上通訊趨勢


  • 預測與前提條件
  • 市場背景


  • 好的方面為何?電信業者的應對
  • 結論


  • 相關調查
  • 摘要


Product Code: NZ245371

This IDC study provides a market analysis and forecast of the New Zealand (NZ) telecommunications market and combines commentary, research, and insights about the main NZ telecommunications operators (the supply side) with research and survey data on telecommunications trends in the consumer and business markets (the demand side). "Telcos and mobile network operators (MNOs) do not usually receive a lot of empathy from the NZ public, but the NZ telecommunications industry is starting to do it tough," says IDC Research Director, Peter Wise, IDC New Zealand.

IDC has titled this annual market analysis and forecast study for the NZ telecommunications sector, Running to Stand Still. "During the past year, the industry has invested more, well over NZ$1.5 billion in capital, including significant spend on NZ's future telecommunications infrastructure of Ultra Fast Broadband (UFB), Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI), and 4G. NZ is getting world-leading infrastructure as a result. However, at the same time, the industry is also faced with a shrinking market. IDC forecasts telecommunications revenues to shrink by 2.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years. The past year has seen fierce competition in the broadband and mobile markets with customers receiving cheaper prices and/or a lot more value. We have seen unlimited data plans both in fixed and unlimited calling, increased data caps, and shared data plans in mobile. Competition is driving a lot more value into the products and the operators are fighting it out to retain or grow market share as NZ embraces the new technologies of 4G, VDSL and Fibre," says Wise. The study is intended to provide a comprehensive overview and reference guide to the NZ telecommunications market.

Included in the study are:

  • Extensive quantitative data of the market including market sizing and market shares of the main players by revenues and connections
  • Comprehensive analysis of the issues facing the NZ broadband and mobile markets
  • Analysis of the consumer market based on survey data identifying technology trends (e.g., smartphone penetration) of consumers
  • International comparisons - NZ trends in fixed access, broadband, and mobile and how they compare with other countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)
  • Analysis and profiles of the key players in the NZ telecommunications industry (retail service providers [RSPs] and local fibre companies [LFCs]) and commentary on the main telecommunications suppliers
  • Review of the key 2013 and 2014 events such as the government's UFB and RBI
  • IDC's forecast of revenue, connections, market share, and market size for the NZ telecommunications industry for 2014-2018

Table of Contents

IDC Opinion

In This Study

  • Methodology

Executive Summary

  • The Numbers - Market Review and Forecast
    • Small Shifts in Market Share
    • The Future

Situation Overview

  • The Fixed Market
    • Market Statistics
      • Broadband
      • Fixed Voice
    • Broadband Connection Trends and Overseas Comparisons
    • Copper Wholesale Pricing Developments
    • Differing Investment Decisions and Cost Structures
    • The Changing Nature of Bundles
    • The Rise of Naked Services
    • The Ongoing Development of the Fibre Market
    • Competition, Consolidation, and Value-Added Services
      • Content - Renewed Focus
      • SKY TV - A Market Competitor, Market Partner, or Regulatory Target?
      • Competition for Content
      • Other Players
      • The Mobile Market
    • Market Performance
    • Connections
    • Competition within the Mobile Market
      • Prepaid
      • On Account
      • Mobile Pricing
      • 4G Data - Driving Future Success
      • Data Volume
    • Mobile Centricity
    • 700MHz Spectrum
    • Network Development
      • International Development
      • New Zealand's 4G Networks
        • Vodafone
        • Spark
        • 2degrees
        • 4G Network Competition
    • Device Trends/Smartphone Ownership
      • Smartphones
      • Tablets
  • Fibre/RBI Developments
    • UFB Landscape
      • Uptake
    • Rural Broadband Initiative
      • Chorus
        • Why Did It Happen?
    • Enable
    • Ultrafast Fibre (UFF)
    • Northpower
  • Main Retail Players
    • Spark (Previously Telecom)
    • Vodafone
    • 2Degrees
    • CallPlus
    • Snap
    • Kordia
    • SKY
    • Key Suppliers
  • Key Regulatory Trends and Issues
    • Final Pricing Principle for UBA and UCLL
    • Chorus Boost HD products
    • Broadband Disclosure Code
    • Net Neutrality
    • Other Regulatory Matters Coming Up
      • PSTN Shutdown
      • RBI Extension
      • Copyright/Nanny State
      • UFB Installations - MDUs, Right of Way Assumed Consent
  • Telecommunications Trends in Business

Future Outlook

  • Forecast and Assumptions
    • Fixed Voice
    • Fixed Broadband
    • Mobile
  • Market Context

Essential Guidance

  • So Where Is the Upside? What Is a Telco to Do?
  • Conclusion

Learn More

  • Related Research
  • Synopsis

List of Tables

  • Table: Copper Market Pricing Regulatory Developments
  • Table: Naked Broadband Connections as a Percentage of Total Broadband Connections
  • Table: Spark and Vodafone Unlimited Plans (with Phone Line)
  • Table: Comparisons of Selected Plans (Voice and Minutes Focus)
  • Table: Wholesale Copper Pricing Uncertainty Timeline
  • Table: Key Suppliers
  • Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the New Zealand Telecommunications Market, 2014-2018
  • Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the New Zealand Telecommunications Market, 2014-2018

List of Figures

  • Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Retail Revenues, June 2009-June 2014
  • Figure: Vendors' Share, Year to June 2014
  • Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Vendors' Share by Connections, June 2014
  • Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Revenues, 2013-2018
  • Figure: New Zealand ICT Services Change, June 2013 to June 2014
  • Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Retail Revenues by Segment, June 2009-June 2014
  • Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Market Share (Connections), June 2014
  • Figure: Change in Connections, June 2013-June 2014
  • Figure: Market Share by Vendor, Year to June 2014
  • Figure: OECD Broadband Penetration Growth, December 2012-December 2013
  • Figure: OECD Comparison of Broadband Penetration Relative to GDP
  • Figure: Fibre Uptake Drivers
  • Figure: Traditional Voice 2013-2014 (f)
  • Figure: Data Caps: New Zealand Broadband Lines
  • Figure: Comparison of Naked Broadband Offerings: Standalone versus Bundled with Mobile
  • Figure: Fibre 100/50 Pricing: September 2013 versus September 2014
  • Figure: Mobile Revenues, June 2008-2014
  • Figure: Mobile Connections, June 2014
  • Figure: Postpaid versus Prepaid Connections, June 2014
  • Figure: Prepaid Pricing Offers (NZ$16/19 Packs), September 2014
  • Figure: OECD Mobile Phone Services Benchmarking, June 2013
  • Figure: Growth in Mobile Data Volume Purchased
  • Figure: Changes in Mobile Data and Mobile Voice Revenues, 2012-2013
  • Figure: Change in Mobile, PC, and Tablet Use of Application
  • Figure: Vodafone's 4G Network Coverage (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch)
  • Figure: Spark's 4G Network Coverage
  • Figure: 2degrees' 4G Network Coverage, as of September 15, 2014 (Auckland and Wellington)
  • Figure: Smartphone Market Vendor Share
  • Figure: Tablet Market Share by Price Band (US$)
  • Figure: Tablet Market Share by Screen Size Band
  • Figure: Tablet Market Share by Vendor
  • Figure: Chorus Share Price
  • Figure: NZ Organisations' ICT Priorities
  • Figure: The C-Suite versus LOB Focus Areas
  • Figure: Mobility Investment
  • Figure: Unified Communications and Collaboration
  • Figure: NZ Telecommunications Market Revenues, 2008-2018
  • Figure: Total Telecommunications Market - Net Change, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Net Change in Business and Consumer Revenues, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Total Market Forecast, 2014-2018
  • Figure: PSTN Fixed Voice Forecasts - Consumer and Business, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Business Market Forecasts - Migration to IP Voice, 2014-2018
  • Figure: PSTN Fixed Voice Forecasts - Access and Calling Trends, 2014-2018
  • Figure: IP Voice Forecasts - Consumer and Business, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Internet Connection and Revenue Forecasts, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Broadband Connection Forecasts by Technology, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Broadband Revenue Forecasts, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Internet Connection and Revenue Forecasts, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Fibre Connection and Revenue Forecasts, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Mobile Connections - Voice and Data Forecasts
  • Figure: Mobile Revenue Forecasts, 2014-2018
  • Figure: Mobile Data Forecasts, 2014-2018
  • Figure: NZ Smartphone Market Share Forecast by Operating System, 2014-2018
  • Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Revenues 2008-2018: Comparison of 2013 and 2014 Forecasts
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