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The 2014 U.S.-China Solar Trade Dispute: Status, Strategies and Market Impacts

出版商 Greentech Media Inc. 商品編碼 306008
出版日期 內容資訊 英文
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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美國和中國間的太陽能貿易摩擦:情形、策略、對市場的影響 The 2014 U.S.-China Solar Trade Dispute: Status, Strategies and Market Impacts
出版日期: 2014年06月19日 內容資訊: 英文


第1章 簡介

第2章 發展的摘要

  • 美國-中國的貿易案例
  • 美國-中國-台灣的貿易案例
  • 注意:全部可能會有所不同

第3章 中國的進口策略

  • TTC:台灣製的晶圓與電池、中國製的模組組裝零件
  • COO:利用中國製晶圓、非中國製的OEM電池與模組製造
  • CCC:全部利用中國產品,美國子公司支付轉讓價格相關電池關稅
  • COO2:供給美國市場的海上電池/模組能力的建立或利用
  • 關稅策略:摘要、結論

第4章 市場的壞影響

  • 中國製模組的價格
  • 美國的模組供應商市場佔有率
  • 中國的模組供應商競爭動態
  • 美國的太陽能需求
  • 未來的製造業投資的影響

第5章 結論



Despite the now nearly three years of ongoing solar trade disputes between the U.S. and China, GTM Research has found that both the tariff process and its potential outcomes remain poorly understood by much of the solar industry. This new report presents the status and provisional outcomes from the latest petition (filed by SolarWorld on December 31, 2013) for a specific time period: after the preliminary decision regarding countervailing duties on China (June 4, 2014) and before the preliminary determination regarding antidumping duties on China and Taiwan (July 24, 2014). Despite the ongoing nature of the case, we believe there is valuable insight to be gained from an overview of the current status and potential outcomes of this latest battle.


The 30-page report provides an overview of the initial, currently under order tariffs on Chinese cells and the latest developments in the 2014 tariff petition, compares potential strategies for Chinese suppliers to continue shipping product into the U.S., and discusses potential market impacts of the case as it stands today.

Companies covered include:

  • Canadian Solar
  • First Solar
  • Gehrlicher Solar
  • Hanwha SolarOne
  • JA Solar
  • JinkoSolar
  • LG Solar
  • REC Solar
  • ReneSola
  • Silevo
  • SolarCity
  • SolarWorld
  • Suniva
  • SunPower
  • Trina Solar
  • Yingli Solar

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. Report Background and Scope
  • 1.2. Key Findings

2. Summary of Developments

  • 2.1. 2012 U.S.-China Trade Case
  • 2.2. 2013-14 U.S.-China-Taiwan Trade Case
  • 2.3. Caution: Everything Could Change

3. Chinese Import Strategies

  • 3.1. TTC: Taiwanese Wafer and Cell, China Module Assembly
  • 3.2. COO: Use China Wafer and non-China OEM Cell and Module Manufacturing
  • 3.3. CCC: Use All-China Product and Pay Cell Tariff on Transfer Price to U.S. Subsidiary
  • 3.4. COO2: Build or Use Off-Shore Cell/Module Capacity to Serve U.S. Market
  • 3.5. Tariff Strategies: Summary and Conclusions

4. Market Ramifications

  • 4.1. Chinese Module Pricing
  • 4.2. Module Supplier Market Shares in the U.S.
  • 4.3. Chinese Module Supplier Competitive Dynamics
  • 4.4. U.S. Solar Demand
  • 4.5. Impact on Future Manufacturing Investments

5. Conclusions

List of Figures

2. Summary of Developments

  • Delivered Tier-1 China Module Pricing Buildup, Q1 2014
  • Delivered U.S. Module Pricing, 1-5 MW Orders, Q1 2014
  • U.S. Module Imports by Country of Origin, 2012-2013 (MW)
  • Chinese Module Market Share of U.S. PV Installations, 2012-2013
  • Module Shipments into U.S., Leading Chinese Suppliers, 2012-2014E (Target)
  • 2014 China Solar AD/CVD Petition Scope Table
  • Preliminary Subsidy Rates, June 2014
  • Trade Case Provisional Calendar

3. Chinese Import Strategies

  • Estimated U.S. Module Price For Chinese Module Using Chinese Wafers, Taiwanese Cells and China Module Assembly and Paying Preliminary CVD Margin, H2 2014E
  • Import Scenarios Analyzed
  • Ramped Merchant Non-China Wafer Capacity by Region and Key Producers, 2014
  • Estimated U.S. Module Price For Chinese Module Using Taiwanese Wafers and Cells and China Module Assembly, H2 2014E
  • Estimated U.S. Module Price for Chinese Module Using Chinese Wafer, Korea Cell Tolling and Poland OEM Module Assembly, H2 2014E
  • Ramped Merchant Non-China Cell Capacity by Region and Key Producers, 2014
  • Estimated U.S. Module Price for China-Produced Wafer/Cell/ Module Paying Transfer Price Markup to U.S. Subsidiary and Paying 2012 Cell Tariff, H2 2014E
  • Off-Shore Cell/Module Manufacturing Capacity Owned by Chinese PV Firms, June 2014
  • Summary of U.S. Market Supply Strategies Available to Chinese Suppliers

4. Market Ramifications

  • Estimated Delivered Chinese Module Pricing into U.S. Market based on Tariff Mitigation Strategy, H2 2014E
  • Estimated Top Module Suppliers to SolarCity (Residential), 2013
  • Estimated Top Module Suppliers to Gehrlicher Solar (Commercial), 2013
  • Module Manufacturing Cost, Selected Chinese Firms, Q1 2014
  • Prominent Cell and Module Manufacturing Facilities Located in Malaysia, Mexico and India and YE 2014E Production Capacity
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