The purpose of this report is to forecast the future (2016-2021) of the North American telecommunications network, and from that forecast to identify the major equipment needs to fulfill that forecast. There has been a great deal of turmoil in the area of telecommunications, much of it leading to spectacular changes and advances. Turmoil has been created by technological changes, by regulatory changes, by the development of new products and applications, by the introductions of new, or new flavors, of services, and by the entry of non-traditional competitors.
Because of this turmoil, consumers have much greater capabilities in the broad area of telecommunications than ever before. The reality has passed the fantasy in many ways: cell phones are more capable than Dick Tracys wrist radio, and more capable than Flash Gordons communicator.
Even though there is a great deal of turmoil and uncertainty, forecasting is very important, because as a great philosopher once said;
"Without a forecast, there can be no planning.
Without planning, there can only be chaos."
This report will use the technique of asking the experts for their view of the future and then distilling from that input (some of which will be contradictory) a consistent, unified, organized view of the next five years of telecommunications in North America.
The first chapter will describe the survey that was used to "ask the experts." After that, the reader will be presented with several of the raw answers for the responders to the survey. It is intended to give the reader a first hand view of some of the material in the responders' words. Following the raw answers sample, the author will provide a summary and analysis of the answers and then the resulting forecast for the future of the network.
Finally, this general forecast will be used to provide specific equipment forecasts for this period. This will be accomplished by combining the Forecast of the Future Network that we have constructed with the Survey, with information about forecast of traffic demand and likely investment (supply). The report will thus produce detailed forecasts for the major types of equipment used in optical networks. A description of the makeup and function of each type of equipment will precede the forecast.
At the end of the report, a listing of major vendors that provide this equipment is provided a swell as Appendixes to assist in understanding traffic concepts.
Table of Contents
NETWORK OF THE FUTURE - WITH EQUIPMENT FORECASTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NETWORK OF THE FUTURE - WITH EQUIPMENT FORECASTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
NETWORK OF THE FUTURE - WITH EQUIPMENT FORECASTS
THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS
- The Lightwave Network
- The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
NETWORK OF THE FUTURE - WITH EQUIPMENT FORECASTS
INTRODUCTION
THE SURVEY
SURVEY SAMPLE RAW RESULTS
View of Future Network 2016-2021- Base Case
- Base Case
- Network
- Industry
- Response 1
- Response 2
- Response 3
- Response 4
- Response 5
- Response 6
- Response 7
- Response 8
SURVEY SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
- General
- Access Network
- Transport Network
- Applications
FORECAST FOR NETWORK OF THE FUTURE
General
- The continuing forces of disruption
Access
- Access Network - Wired
- The wired network will tend toward fiber
- Access Network - Cellular
- The cellular network will be forced to deploy 5G in some areas.
Transport
- Transport facilities will become virtually all fiber
Applications
- The Application area will see the most growth
EQUIPMENT FORECAST
TRAFFIC - THE OPTICAL NETWORK DEMAND
Major Traffic Sources
Four Major Sources of Traffic
- AAA Access Lines
- Mobile Devices
- International Traffic
- H-S Access Lines
Demand Growth - Summary
INVESTMENT - THE NETWORK SUPPLY
Carriers Investments
SUPPLY - CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY THE RBOCS
RBOC Investment Plans and Forecast
AT&T Investment Plans and Forecast
Verizon Investment Plans and Forecast
- Loss of Main Lines
- Summary Thoughts on Investment
EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTIONS AND FORECASTS
ROADM Description
Types of ROADMs
- First Generation ROADM - PLC-Based ROADMs
- Colorless vs. Colored Ports
- Other Names
- Benefits and Problems with PLC ROADMs
- The Second-Generation ROADM - Blocker-Based ROADMs
- Other Names
- Alternative Designs for Blockers
- Problems with Blocker-based ROADMs
- Third-Generation ROADM - Wavelength Selective Switch (WSS)
- Other Names
- Problems and Benefits of WSS ROADMs
- Fourth-Generation ROADMS - Edge ROADM (ER)
Summary of ROADM Features by Utilization
Summary of ROADM Types by Generation
Summary of ROADM Description
ROADM Forecast
ROADM Systems - US Forecast
- US Edge ROADMs
- US Market Forecast
World Market Forecast
DWDM
DWDM Description
METRO DWDM
What is Metro DWDM?
Types of DWDM - 40 and 100 Gbps Channels
DWDM Forecast
- North American Forecast
- World DWDM Forecast
Switches
IP and Ethernet Switches
Switch Forecast
- North American Switch Forecast
- World Switch Forecast
ROUTERS
What is a Router?
Why Use Routers?
What is a Terabit Router?
- Traditional Router Technology
Traditional Router Applications
Router Forecast
- North American Forecast
- World Router Forecast
VENDORS
System Vendor Listing
- Adva Optical Networking
- Alcatel-Lucent
- Auxora, Inc.
- CALIENT Technologies
- Ciena
- Cisco
- ECI
- Ericsson
- Fujitsu
- Infinera
- Juniper
- Huawei Technologies
- Kingfisher International
- Mahi Networks (formerly Photuris) - Meriton - Now Xtera
- Marconi Corporation plc (Ericsson)
- Meriton Networks
- Movaz Networks (ADVA)
- Movaz NEC America Inc.
- Nistica
- Nokia Siemens (NSN)
- Nortel (Now dissolved)
- Performance Motion Devices
- Tellabs
- Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent)
- ZTE
APPENDIX I, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS
APPENDIX II, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS
Internet Traffic Calculations
- Bits and Bytes
- Transfer Rate
- Busy Hour Traffice
- Protocol Efficiencies
- Peaking
Table of Figures
- FIGURE 1, LIGHTWAVE NETWORK
- FIGURE 2, TRAFFIC FORECAST - AAA LINES
- FIGURE 3, MOBILE TRAFFIC FORECAST
- FIGURE 4, MOBILE - WIRELINE ACCESS
- FIGURE 5, INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC
- FIGURE 6, DATA TRAFFIC FROM MAJOR SOURCES
- FIGURE 7, COMPARISON OF FOUR MAJOR SOURCES TO TOTAL TRAFFIC
- FIGURE 8: INTERNET GROWTH RATE - NEW FORECAST
- FIGURE 9, SUMMARY POINTS ON DEMAND
- FIGURE 10, SUPPLY DEMAND RELATIONSHIP
- FIGURE 11, NETWORK SHOWING WIRELESS ACCESS
- FIGURE 12, WIRELESS DATA FORECAST
- FIGURE 13, AT&T CAPITAL INVESTMENT 2009-2014
- FIGURE 14, VERIZON WIRELINE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 2009-2014
- FIGURE 15, VERIZON WIRELINE NEGATIVE GROWTH
- FIGURE 16, VERIZON WIRELINE REVENUE NEGATIVE GROWTH
- FIGURE 17, VERIZON REVENUE PER WIRELINE
- FIGURE 18: ROADM GENERAL CONFIGURATION
- FIGURE 19: PLC BASED ROADM
- FIGURE 20: DETAILED 'BLOCKER' ROADM ARCHITECTURE
- FIGURE 21: ALTERNATIVE M-Z DIODE-BASED BROADCAST ROADM
- FIGURE 22: WSS STRUCTURE
- FIGURE 23: WSS-BASED ROADM
- FIGURE 24: WSS-BASED MULTI-DEGREE NODE INTERCONNECTION
- FIGURE 25: TYPICAL BLOCKER ROADM
- FIGURE 26: WSS ADDED TO BLOCKER
- FIGURE 27: SUMMARY OF ROADM TYPES BY UTILIZATION
- FIGURE 28: FOUR GENERATIONS OF ROADMS
- FIGURE 29, ROADM SYSTEM UNIT FORECAST - US
- FIGURE 30, US MARKET - CHANGE IN PREDOMINANT TYPE OF ROADM OVER TIME
- FIGURE 31, US EDGE ROADMS SYSTEMS
- FIGURE 32, PRICE FORECAST FOR ROADMS
- FIGURE 33, ROADMS MARKET FORECAST - US
- FIGURE 34, ROADM MARKET - US - BY TECHNOLOGY
- FIGURE 35, WORLD ROADM SYSTEMS BY TYPE
- FIGURE 36, WORLD ROADM MARKET
- FIGURE 37, TYPICAL DWDM LAYOUT
- FIGURE 38, METRO DWDM TYPICAL LAYOUT
- FIGURE 39, METRO DWDM SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS
- FIGURE 40, NORTH AMERICAN DWM SYSTEM ENDS
- FIGURE 41, NORTH AMERICAN DWDM MARKET
- FIGURE 42, US DWDM FORECAST BY CHANNEL SPEED
- FIGURE 43, DWDM - WORLD FORECAST - SYSTEM ENDS
- FIGURE 44, DWDM WORLD MARKET FORECAST
- FIGURE 45, DWDM WORLD FORECAST BY SPEED
- FIGURE 46, NORTH AMERICAN SWITCH MARKET FORECAST
- FIGURE 47, NORTH AMERICAN SWITCHES - UNITS FORECAST
- FIGURE 48, WORLD SWITCH MARKET
- FIGURE 49, WORLD SWITCHES - UNITS
- FIGURE 50, ROUTER LAYOUT
- FIGURE 51, ROUTER APPLICATIONS
- FIGURE 52, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTERS - TOTAL - UNITS
- FIGURE 53, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTERS TOTAL MARKET
- FIGURE 54, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTER MARKET - BY TYPES
- FIGURE 55, WORLD ROUTER FORECAST - UNITS
- FIGURE 56, WORLD ROUTER MARKET - TOTAL
- FIGURE 57, WORLD ROUTER MARKET - BY TYPES
- FIGURE 58: TRAFFIC/SPEED RELATIONSHIPS
- FIGURE 59: EXAMPLE OF VARIOUS TRAFFIC SIZES
- FIGURE 60, MULTIPLES OF BYTE
- FIGURE 61: NEW TRANSFER RATE FORECAST
- FIGURE 62: SUMMARY OF CONCEPTS
