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市場調查報告書

印度的經濟和社會變革

India's Economic and Social Transformation

出版商 Frost & Sullivan 商品編碼 988604
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 46 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
價格
印度的經濟和社會變革 India's Economic and Social Transformation
出版日期: 2021年01月08日內容資訊: 英文 46 Pages
簡介

印度是增長最快的主要經濟體之一,擁有得天獨厚的中產階級和適齡工作人口。但是,在2019年,有跡象表明經濟放緩,新的冠狀病毒感染(COVID-19)的傳播導致了嚴重的衰退,就像世界其他國家一樣。

更仔細地觀察COVID-19的影響和未來前景,預計2022年至2023年初之間的國內生產總值(GDP)將完全恢復。通常,第二波利差可能會使完全恢復延遲四分之一或二分之一。此後,預計增長率約為6%。協作性結構改革應有助於使印度在預測期(2020年至2030年)處於更高的增長軌跡。

關於城市的經濟趨勢,隨著大城市面臨市場飽和和資源壓力,下一波增長將來自二級城市(農村中小型城市)。在未來十年中,這些城市的增長速度預計將超過城市地區。此外,印度中產階級家庭的數量預計將從2018年的2.93億增加到2030年的3.86億。

就人口而言,印度正受益於勞動年齡人口和規模的增長,與中國的下降趨勢相比,印度有望在未來十年繼續增長。總的來說,整個印度的人口密度有望增加。根據2017年的數據,尤其是孟買,在世界範圍內排名第二。

就健康和醫療而言,印度非傳染性疾病的發病率正在上升。國內健康保險的覆蓋率很低,但是在政府的新計劃於2018年在全國範圍內推出之後,似乎已經有所改善。在窮人中擴大計劃的潛力有助於增加健康保險的覆蓋面。

本報告分析了印度當前的經濟和社會狀況以及未來10年的趨勢展望,包括GDP增長前景,主要的未來增長機會,中產階級增長前景和外國,我們將為您提供信息影響因素,當前人口結構和未來變化的可能性(直到2030年)以及傳染病和各種疾病的發作狀況。

目錄

戰略挑戰

增長機會分析:印度的宏觀經濟環境

  • 印度的經濟和社會環境:概述
  • 印度的經濟和社會環境:主要增長指標
  • 印度社會經濟增長的促進因素
  • 印度社會經濟增長的限制因素

經濟分析

  • GDP增長率
  • 每個城市的GDP
  • 中產階級的成長
  • 冠狀病毒感染(COVID-19):對財政和貨幣政策的影響
  • 財務分析
  • 貿易分析
  • 全球經濟趨勢和動向的影響
  • 在GPI(世界績效指數)中的位置

印度社會分析

  • 人口結構
  • 人口規模/密度
  • 人口規模:按世代劃分
  • 疾病概況:傳染病
  • 疾病概況:非傳染性疾病
  • 健康保險和自付費用
  • 健康保險:按州/保險類型分析

增長機會

  • 增長機會(一): "擺脫對中國的依賴,實現生產基地多元化" 的國內生產機會
  • 增長機會(2):消除低迷的消費者需求
  • 增長機會(3):當地中小城市對產品和服務的強勁需求
  • 增長機會(四):人口老齡化與產出差距
  • 增長機會(5):勞動年齡和中產階級繁榮,相關需求增長
目錄
Product Code: 9AE5/33

Future Growth Potential Driven by Robust Medium-term GDP and Expansive Working-age and Middle-class Populations

India is among the fastest-growing major economies, advantaged by an expanding middle class and working-age population. While signs of a slowdown were evident in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has catapulted the economy into a deep recession, similar to the global trend. This research examines the country's outlook for the next decade and evaluates its socio-economic growth trajectory and transformation.

Looking more closely at the impact of COVID-19 and future outlook, full gross domestic product (GDP) recovery is expected by the early part of fiscal year 2022-2023. Potential unravelling caused by a second wave of the pandemic would likely delay full recovery by a quarter or two. Thereafter, about 6% growth levels are expected. Concerted structural reforms, if implemented, should help put India on a higher growth trajectory during the forecast period of 2020-2030.

In terms of city-based trends, with metros facing saturated markets and resource pressure, the next wave of growth will arise from tier II cities. Several of these cities are expected to outpace Indian metros in regards to economic growth during the next decade. In this scenario, businesses should look to cater to higher middle-class demand, with the number of Indian middle-class households expected to grow from 293 million in 2018 to 386 million by 2030.

On the demographic front, India is enjoying the benefits of a growing working-age population and size, a trend expected to continue for the next decade, in contrast to a declining trend in China. Overall, population density across India is expected to increase. Mumbai, in particular, stands out, ranked as the second-most densely populated city on a global level according to 2017 data.

Healthcare trends reveal a growing incidence of non-communicable diseases amongst the Indian population. While health insurance coverage in the country has typically been low, it appears to have improved following national rollout of the government's Ayushman Bharat scheme back in 2018. Potential expansion of the scheme among the non-poor would help lift health insurance coverage rates.

This research also explores growth opportunities tied to economic and social transformation expected during the next decade, including factors such as manufacturing prospects and population characteristics.

Key Issues Addressed:

  • What is the 2025-2026 GDP growth outlook for India?
  • What are some of India's key macroeconomic growth opportunities for the next decade?
  • What are the expectations for Indian middle-class growth?
  • How will global events and trends such as the US elections and supply chain diversification impact India?
  • How will India's population structure evolve up to 2030?
  • What does India's communicable and non-communicable disease profile look like?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

  • Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8™
  • The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Economic and Social Environment in India
  • Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis-Macroeconomic Environment inIndia

  • India Economic and Social Environment-An Overview
  • Key Growth Metrics for the Economic and Social Environment in India
  • Socio-Economic Growth Drivers in India
  • Socio-Economic Growth Restraints in India

Economic Analysis

  • GDP Growth
  • GDP by City
  • Middle-class Growth
  • COVID-19 Impact on Fiscal and Monetary Policy
  • Fiscal Analysis
  • Trade Analysis
  • Trade Analysis (continued)
  • Impact of Global Economic Trends and Events
  • Positioning on Global Performance Indices

India Social Analysis

  • Population Structure
  • Population Size and Density
  • Generational Population Sizing
  • Disease Profile-Communicable Diseases
  • Disease Profile-Non-Communicable Diseases
  • Health Insurance and Out-of-Pocket Expenditures
  • Health Insurance-Analysis by State and Insurance Type

Growth Opportunity Universe

  • Growth Opportunity 1: Domestic Production Opportunities Amidst Diversification Away from China
  • Growth Opportunity 1: Domestic Production Opportunities Amidst Diversification Away from China (continued)
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Release of Pent-up Consumer Demand
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Release of Pent-up Consumer Demand (continued)
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Robust Demand in Goods and Services from Tier II Cities
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Robust Demand in Goods and Services from Tier II Cities (continued)
  • Growth Opportunity 4: Ageing Population and Demand-supply Gap
  • Growth Opportunity 4: Ageing Population and Demand-supply Gap (continued)
  • Growth Opportunity 5: Working-age and Middle-class Boom and Associated Demand Growth
  • Growth Opportunity 5: Working-age and Middle-class Boom and Associated Demand Growth (continued)
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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