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市場調查報告書

商用車的電力驗證:潛在性、趨勢預測 (∼2025年)

Global Commercial Vehicle Electrification Potential and Trends, Forecast to 2025

出版商 Frost & Sullivan 商品編碼 739361
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 91 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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商用車的電力驗證:潛在性、趨勢預測 (∼2025年) Global Commercial Vehicle Electrification Potential and Trends, Forecast to 2025
出版日期: 2018年10月26日內容資訊: 英文 91 Pages
簡介

中型、大型卡車的電力驗證, 由於電池包裝價格降低到100美元/kwh以下,活用津貼的許多電器卡車產品的銷售順利發展,到2025年為11.1%的成長率,創造250,000台的市場機會。

本報告提供全球商用車的電力驗證趨勢調查,市場定義和概要,市場成長的促進因素、阻礙要素分析,中型、大型卡車的電力驗證的案例,電力驗證技術概要,各卡車區分、地區的銷售台數的預測,主要各地區、國家的詳細分析,成長機會、推薦行動分析 等彙整資料。

第1章 摘要整理

第2章 調查範圍、市場區隔

第3章 市場環境、市場動態

  • 電力驗證的主要影響因素
  • 法律規章因素分析
  • 經濟因素分析
  • 基礎設施因素分析
  • 技術因素分析

第4章 利用案例分析

  • 中型卡車
  • 大型卡車

第5章 電力驗證技術概要

  • EV的主要零組件
  • 電力驅動系統架構的基準
  • 電動馬達技術發展藍圖
  • 電動馬達技術標竿
  • 電力電子技術技術發展藍圖
  • EV的電池化學的未來:技術藍圖
  • 鋰離子電池:比較分析
  • 電池製造能力的預測
  • CHAdeMO充電發展藍圖
  • CHARIN (Charging Interface Initiative)

第6章 全球市場的展望:中型、大型電力卡車

  • 預測手法
  • 電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 市場分析、預測:各重量區分、地區
  • 中型電力卡車市場展望:各地區
  • 大型電力卡車市場展望:各地區

第7章 中國的中型、大型電力卡車市場:概要

  • 電動動力傳動:中國的購買獎勵
  • 電力卡車:主要自治政府的購買獎勵
  • 電動動力傳動:主要的影響因素
  • 產品系列、市場投入藍圖
  • 大型電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 大型卡車:電動動力傳動引進預測
  • 中型電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 中型卡車:電動動力傳動引進預測

第8章 北美中型、大型電力卡車市場:概要

  • 國家卡車燃料經濟和GHG排放標準
  • 產品系列、市場投入藍圖
  • 大型電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 大型卡車:電動動力傳動引進預測
  • 中型電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 中型卡車:電動動力傳動引進預測

第9章 歐洲中型、大型電力卡車市場:概要

  • 主導英國、義大利、德國:低排放地帶舉措
  • 市中心的點閱存取的限制
  • 獎勵概要
  • 產品系列、市場投入藍圖
  • 大型電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 大型卡車:電動動力傳動引進預測
  • 中型電力卡車銷售台數的預測
  • 中型卡車:電動動力傳動引進預測

第10章 成長機會、推薦行動

第11章 總論、未來展望

第12章 附錄

目錄
Product Code: K2FF-18

Drop in Battery Pack Price Below $100/kwh Compounded by Slew of eTruck Product Launches to Capitalise on Subsidies are Poised to Push Electrification in MD & HD Truck Segment to 11.1% by 2025 Translating to 250,000 Market Opportunity

GHG emission regulations are ever strengthening in North America, Europe, and China. Climate change concerns among the public is especially propelling the automotive industry to reduce carbon footprint. Countries are looking for options to improve air quality in their communities and to contribute to mitigation of global climate change through electrification. This study provides an overview of the key trends in medium commercial vehicle ranging between 6.1 tonnes and 16 tonnes, and heavy commercial vehicle ranging above 16 tonnes segments of global electric truck market from 2016 to 2025. The various factors attracting adoption of electric trucks and the top challenges are studied in brief. The study reveals that the Chinese truck market will dominate the electric truck market with aggressive plan of subsidy rollout coupled with deployment of charging infrastructure systems in large scale. China is leading the electrification and contributes to 50% of the global electric truck sales in today's scenario, and the trend is expected to remain the same by 2025. North America, mainly Canada and the US, is expected to be the second largest market for electric trucks, having new disruptors emerging from the market. The incentive policies and stringent emission regulations in Europe, North America, and China will motivate the buyers, and the growing consumer demand for electric trucks will be satisfied by the product line-ups planned by OEMs. New entrants like Tesla and Nikola are expected to disrupt the North American market, while Chinese manufacturers are eyeing on export markets to uphold the market dominance in terms of electric truck sales volume. The electric powertrain adoption is poised to accelerate post 2020 due to the fall in battery prices. This study provides a summary on the available drivetrain technologies in the industry and future adoptions. By 2025, the penetration of electrification is expected to be 28.5% in medium-duty trucks and 6.5% in heavy-duty trucks in China. In North America, the penetration of electric powertrain is expected to be 8.3% and 12.3% in medium- and heavy-duty trucks, respectively. Several Western European countries are planning to adopt the ICE ban from 2025-2030, with expanding low-emission zones planning to ban diesel and gasoline engines. The new GHG emission regulations in Europe are pushing hard to achieve CO2 and fuel economy standards to satisfy EISA lead-time requirement. The electric powertrain adoption is expected to be 15% in medium-duty trucks and 5.2% in heavy-duty trucks in Europe. The world of batteries is changing very rapidly making it very hard to predict the most promising battery chemistry; however, some trends are already visible when limiting to lithium-ion based batteries. With battery prices dropping nearly 80% during 2010-2017, electric vehicles have become the favourite alternative powertrain for automakers both incumbent (such as Daimler, Volvo, and Scania) and startups (such as Tesla, Orange EV, and Nikola) ahead of hybrids. Fuel cell electric vehicles will be the future trend and will start acquiring the market from 2020 due to the intensity of energy in hydrogen and light weight, making the technology suitable for trucks. The rapid technology developments in electrification and huge market potential are inviting new technology participants and startups to invest in the CV space, whereas the transition is compelling the existing manufacturers to adopt the next-generation technology. With wide range of fiscal incentives and other benefits by government, emergence of eMobility value chain, and rising consumer awareness on usage benefits and cost savings, the market opportunity for electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks is predicted to be 250,000 units by 2025.

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Electric Truck Market-Outlook of Key Regions
  • Technology Advancements Aiding Electric Trucks
  • Top 4 Market Drivers in Adoption of Electric Trucks
  • Top 4 Challenges in Adoption of Electric Trucks
  • Key Developments in the Electric Truck Market

2. RESEARCH SCOPE AND SEGMENTATION

  • Research Scope
  • Powertrain Technology Segmentation
  • Definitions
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions This Study Will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology
  • Partial List of Industries Compared

3. MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND DYNAMICS

  • Key Factors Impacting Electrification
  • Legislative Factors Analysis
  • Economic Factors Analysis
  • Economic Factors Analysis (continued)
  • Infrastructure Factors Analysis
  • Technological Factors Analysis

4. USE CASE ANALYSIS

  • MD Truck Use Case Analysis
  • HD Truck Use Case Analysis
  • HD Truck Use Case Analysis (continued)

5. ELECTRIFICATION TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW

  • Key Components of Electric Vehicles
  • Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking
  • Electric Motor Technology Roadmap
  • Electric Motor Technology Benchmarking
  • Power Electronics Technology Roadmap
  • Future of Battery Chemistries in EVs-Technology Roadmap
  • Lithium Ion Batteries Comparative Analysis
  • Lithium-ion Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains
  • Battery Production Capacity to 2025
  • CHAdeMO Charging Roadmap
  • Charging Interface Initiative (CHARIN)

6. GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK-MD & HD ELECTRIC TRUCKS

  • Forecasting Methodology
  • MD & HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • Breakdown by Weight Segment and Region
  • Electric MD Market Outlook of Key Regions-2025
  • Electric HD Market Outlook of Key Regions-2025

7. CHINESE MD & HD ELECTRIC TRUCK MARKET OVERVIEW

  • Electric Powertrain-Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government
  • Electric Trucks-Purchase Incentive by Key Regional Government
  • Electric Powertrain-Key Influencing Trends
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued)
  • HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • HD Truck-Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast
  • MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • MD Truck-Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

8. NORTH AMERICAN MD & HD ELECTRIC TRUCK MARKET OVERVIEW

  • National Truck Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued)
  • HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • HD Truck-Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast
  • MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • MD Truck-Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

9. EUROPEAN MD & HD ELECTRIC TRUCK MARKET OVERVIEW

  • UK, Italy, and Germany-Leading the Initiative with Low-Emission Zones
  • City Urban Access Restriction
  • Overview of Incentives
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • HD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • HD Truck-Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast
  • MD Electric Truck Sales Forecast
  • MD Truck-Electric Powertrain Adoption Forecast

10. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPANIES TO ACTION

  • Growth Opportunity
  • Strategic Imperatives for Electric MD & HD Truck Market

11. KEY CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • Future Outlook-2025
  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

12. APPENDIX

  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
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