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市場調查報告書

自動駕駛技術和北美的汽車維修市場的影響:∼2030年

Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030

出版商 Frost & Sullivan 商品編碼 602448
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 58 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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自動駕駛技術和北美的汽車維修市場的影響:∼2030年 Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the North American Automotive Aftermarket, Forecast to 2030
出版日期: 2018年01月16日 內容資訊: 英文 58 Pages
簡介

ADAS支援汽車及自動駕駛車的運行台數對全體的比例,預計從2017年的9%,增加到2030年的82%。

本報告提供自動駕駛技術和北美的汽車維修市場的影響調查,ADAS/自動駕駛車的引進預測,替換零件、維護、汽車維修等維修市場的影響,未來展望等彙整資料。

摘要整理

  • 主要調查結果
  • 自動駕駛技術:對汽車維修的宏觀影響
  • 對碰撞與維修業的影響:收益的潛在性
  • 智慧型行動的保守性引進預測:對收益的影響
  • 智慧型行動的樂觀的引進預測:對收益的影響

調查範圍、調查目的、背景、調查手法

定義及分類

自動駕駛車和ADAS技術:市場發展前景

  • ADAS/自動駕駛車:SAE定義
  • 自動駕駛車:定義與能力框架
  • ADAS技術:感測器的普及與能力的擴大
  • 自動駕駛技術:產業、技術的成長推動因素
  • 自動駕駛技術:對駕駛、汽車擁有的整體影響
  • 自動駕駛技術:對產業相關利益者的影響
  • ■ADAS/自動駕駛技術:技術引進預測
  • ADAS & 自動駕駛車的銷售額:樂觀的預測、保守性預測
  • 對智慧型行動和VIO的影響等

自動駕駛技術:對汽車售後市場、維修服務市場的影響

  • 主要的替換零件的影響
  • 傷痕、維修:對汽車產業的影響
  • 維修服務市場:預測前提條件
  • 碰撞:對維修產業的影響和收益的潛在性
  • 碰撞的收益上是的影響:低ADAS/自動駕駛技術引進率的情況
  • 碰撞的收益上是的影響:高ADAS/自動駕駛技術引進率的情況

成長機會、推薦行動

  • 成長機會:R&D、感測器為基礎的零組件供給的改善
  • 成功、成長的策略性必要條件

總論、未來展望

附錄

關於FROST & SULLIVAN

目錄
Product Code: 9AB2/AB

By 2030, Collision Repair Revenue Could Potentially Decline by 32%

The North American automotive landscape is witnessing steady change. Since 2010, vehicles have been seeing the increased presence of ADAS components. Autonomous technology is also seeing growing interest, and along with ADAS and autonomous cars, it comprises intelligent mobility. This trend will gain further traction once semi-autonomous vehicles garner momentum by the end of 2020, which will decrease the percent of non-ADAS vehicles in the total vehicle parc.

The growing adoption of intelligent mobility from 2020 to 2030 will ensure fewer collisions and lesser repairs. This insight sheds light on the penetration of various levels of autonomous vehicles, forecasts the impact of adoption on the general aftermarket, the macro impact, and the impact on parts and maintenance trends, and offers a collision service market forecast.

The key impact areas are eco driving, shared mobility, collision avoidance, congestion mitigation, connected maintenance, insurance incentives, and service complexity.

Research Highlights:

The insight focuses on 2 specific scenarios, namely:

  • Low adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)
  • High adoption of ADAS/autonomous vehicles (intelligent mobility)

Key Features:

The key areas of analysis under these scenarios are as follows:

  • Impact on the overall VIO and its impact on non-ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2017 to 2030
  • Penetration of level 2 and level 3 autonomous vehicles along with ADAS-enabled vehicles from 2020 to 2030
  • Overall collisions expected during the period under study
  • Overall collision repair potential from 2017 to 2030 under the conservative adoption of intelligent mobility
  • Total revenue potential from collision repairs

Key Issues Addressed:

  • What are the current and emerging trends in ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles? What are the likely adoption rates and the macro impact on the automotive aftermarket?
  • What are the vehicle sales and VIO scenarios for ADAS-enabled and autonomous vehicles?
  • What are the potential areas of impact on the US aftermarket - parts, maintenance trends, and collision?
  • How will the collision service market be impacted in terms of revenue growth or decline by the introduction of autonomous mobility?
  • What are the potential legislations and regulations that can drive or restrain the adoption of autonomous technology?

Key Conclusion:

The total number of ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9% of the total VIO in 2017 to 82% in 2030. The increased adoption of ADAS and autonomous vehicles will be due to the higher emphasis on safety and green technology . Regular wear items, such as tires and brake pads, are likely to record declining replacement rates .Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance, such as over-the-air (OTA) updates.

Table of Contents

1. IMPACT OF AUTONOMOUS MOBILITY ON THE NORTH AMERICAN AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET, FORECAST TO 2030

Executive Summary

  • Key Findings
  • Autonomous Mobility-Macro Impact on Vehicle Maintenance
  • Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry-Revenue Potential
  • Revenue Impact due to the Conservative Adoption of Intelligent Mobility
  • Revenue Impact due to the Optimistic Adoption of Intelligent Mobility

Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology

  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology

Definitions and Segmentation

  • Market Definitions
  • Vehicle Segmentation

Autonomous Vehicles and ADAS Technology-How Will The Market Develop?

  • ADAS/Autonomous Vehicles-SAE Definitions
  • Autonomous Cars-Definition and Capability Framework
  • ADAS Technology-Proliferation of Sensors and Capabilities
  • Autonomous Mobility-Industry and Technology Drivers
  • Autonomous Mobility-Impact on Overall Driving/Ownership Dynamics
  • Impact of Autonomous Mobility on Industry Stakeholders

ADAS/Autonomous Mobility-Technology Adoption Forecast

  • ADAS & Autonomous Cars Sales-Optimistic & Conservative Forecast
  • Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO-Low Adoption Outlook
  • Intelligent Mobility and Its Impact on VIO-High Adoption Outlook

Impact of Autonomous Mobility on the Automotive Aftermarket and the Collision Service Market

  • Impact on Key Replacement Parts
  • Collision-Impact on the Automotive Industry
  • Collision Service Market Forecast Assumptions
  • Impact of Collision on the Repair Industry-Revenue Potential
  • Revenue Impact on Collision (Low ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)
  • Revenue Impact on Collision (High ADAS/Autonomous Adoption)

Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action

  • Growth Opportunity-Improve R&D and Supply of Sensor-based Components
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

Conclusions and Future Outlook

  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

Appendix

  • List of Exhibits
  • List of Exhibits (continued)
  • Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global
  • Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global (continued)
  • Startups Enabling Autonomous Mobility, Global (continued)
  • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

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