俄羅斯對烏克蘭的軍事行動及其對全球汽車業的影響

由於原材料、半導體芯片、電動汽車電池和催化轉換器的供應惡化以及工廠關閉，全球汽車產量減少了 100 萬輛。由於烏克蘭供應商的零件短缺，一些歐洲和東歐的原始設備製造商已經暫停或放緩了生產。生產中斷和汽車零部件供應短缺是這場危機的直接後果，預計未來幾週供應鏈問題和原材料短缺。

本報告調查分析了俄羅斯對烏克蘭的軍事行動及其對全球汽車產業的影響、戰略需求、增長環境、俄羅斯和烏克蘭乘用車產業概況、汽車零部件和原材料概況。對供應鍊和 OEM 觀點的影響。

目錄

戰略要求

• 為什麼增長變得越來越困難？
• 戰略要點 8 (TM)
• 三大戰略要求對汽車行業的影響
• 增長機會推動增長管道引擎 (TM)

成長環境

• 俄羅斯對烏克蘭的軍事行動：主要亮點和對汽車的影響
• 汽車行業動蕩的主要領域
• 2020年全球乘用車生產概況
• 俄羅斯和烏克蘭乘用車製造亮點
• 俄羅斯/烏克蘭乘用車生產廠
• 全球汽車 OEM 暫停與俄羅斯和烏克蘭的貿易
• 俄羅斯汽車零部件行業概況
• 烏克蘭汽車零部件產業概況
• 影響分析-汽車零部件及原材料
• OEM 特定影響概覽

俄羅斯/烏克蘭乘用車行業概述

• 乘用車行業快照：俄羅斯
• 乘用車行業快照：烏克蘭
• 危機的區域前景
• OEM 在俄羅斯/烏克蘭失去商業機會
• 分析俄羅斯和烏克蘭對 OEM 的影響
• 可能的 OEM/供應商策略

汽車零部件概述及對供應鏈的影響

• 受衝突影響的汽車零部件
• 俄羅斯主要汽車零部件供應商及經營狀況
• 烏克蘭主要汽車零部件供應商及經營狀況
• 烏克蘭汽車零部件行業：供應商行為
• 影響分析：汽車零部件

原材料概述及其對供應鏈的影響

• 俄羅斯原材料供應快照
• 鈀：市場概覽
• 鈀：汽車催化劑材料
• 鈀金：價格呈指數增長
• 鎳：市場概況
• 鎳價11年來最高
• 鎳，電動汽車電池：主要汽車應用
• 鎳價飆升使電動汽車成本增加 1,000 美元
• 氖氣供應問題：俄羅斯 2014 年對烏克蘭的軍事行動的教訓
• 缺氖氣加劇芯片短缺危機
• 影響分析：原材料

OEM 視角

• 雷諾：概覽
• 雷諾：影響分析
• 現代和起亞：概覽
• 現代和起亞：影響分析
• Stellantis：概述
• Stellantis：影響分析
• 大眾汽車：概覽
• 大眾汽車：影響分析
• 豐田：概覽
• 豐田：影響分析
• 中國品牌

增長機會宇宙

• 增長機會一：深化行業合作，避免採購問題
• 增長機會 2：避免零部件短缺的替代採購策略
• 增長機會3：OEM減少因衝突而失去的商機

受訪者的調查結果

Worsening Supply of Raw Materials, Semiconductor Chips, EV Batteries, and Catalytic Converters Coupled with Plant Shutdowns would Lead to 1 Million Fewer Vehicles Being Produced Worldwide

The Russo-Ukrainian war severely disrupted the automotive value chain and prompted OEMs and suppliers to defer or discontinue trade with Russia. Several OEMs in Europe and Eastern Europe have paused or slowed their production due to a lack of parts from Ukraine-based suppliers. Production halt and auto parts supply shortage are the immediate effect of this crisis, and supply chain issues and raw material shortages are expected in the coming weeks. OEMs, including Toyota, Ford, Volvo, Jaguar-Land Rover, General Motors, and BMW, have ceased export operations to Russia, with many of them suspending Russian joint ventures in response to the invasion. Russia is a major supplier of key metals & minerals, and export sanctions have severely impacted commodity demand and prices.

The study aims to provide an overview of the automotive industry in Russia and Ukraine, key manufacturers, the share of these countries in the global automotive industry, and analyze the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the global automotive industry. The research service will elucidate the key issues auto OEMs face for raw material & auto parts demand and supply. It will help understand the current market position and how the industry responds, particularly in vehicle production, business opportunity, and supply chains. It provides an overview of the key OEMs/suppliers, services & products and analyzes the strategies adopted by them for mitigating the crisis. In addition to the effect of the crisis on the automotive industry and key areas of impact, the report analyzes future areas of disruption, impact on the supply chain due to raw material shortage, and manufacturing strategies. Frost & Sullivan has examined the auto components industry and analyzed which automotive segments will be severely impacted by the conflict.

By providing a comprehensive overview of the industry from multiple angles, this research service seeks to:

• Capture the current scenario of the global automotive market and the Russo-Ukrainian automotive industry.

• Understand the role of Russia as a major metal supplier.

• Identify the role of Ukraine in the global automotive industry.

• Understand the landscape of the supply chain crisis and how it can be solved.

• Understand and analyze the current scale and effects of the crisis on the global automotive industry.

• Identify OEM risk mitigation strategies and best practices followed.

From an automotive and transportation standpoint, this study provides a global outlook of the ongoing crisis and analyzes its impact on the OEMs and auto-component manufacturers.

This study takes a deep dive into Russia's and Ukraine's contribution to the global automotive industry, the best practices adopted by some OEMs to deal with the crisis, and what can be done to mitigate future crises in this domain.

Key Issues Addressed:

• What is the current state of the automotive industry?

• What are the major areas of disruption and effects of the crisis on the automotive industry?

• What are the key factors and trends that could fuel the auto chip shortage?

• What strategies are followed by leading OEMs who conduct business with Russia and Ukraine?

• What is the effect of this crisis on European or global auto production?

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on Automotive Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

• Russo-Ukrainian War, Key Highlights & Impact on Automotive
• Key Areas of Disruption in Automotive
• Global Passenger Vehicle Production Overview, 2020
• Highlights of Passenger Vehicle Manufacturing in Russia & Ukraine
• Passenger Vehicle Production Plants in Russia & Ukraine
• Global Automotive OEMs Pausing Trade With Russia & Ukraine
• Snapshot of the Russian Auto Parts Industry
• Snapshot of the Ukrainian Auto Parts Industry
• Impact Analysis-Auto Parts and Raw Materials
• Overview of OEM Specific Impact

Russia & Ukraine Passenger Car Industry Overview

• Passenger Car Industry Snapshots, Russia
• Passenger Car Industry Snapshots, Ukraine
• Regional Outlook of the Crisis
• Business Opportunity Loss in Russia & Ukraine for OEMs
• Impact Analysis on the OEMs in Russia & Ukraine
• Possible OEM/Supplier Strategies

Auto Parts Overview and Impact on the Supply Chain

• Auto Parts that are Affected due to the Conflict
• Auto Parts that are Affected due to the Conflict (continued)
• Key Auto Parts Suppliers in Russia & Operational Status
• Key Auto Parts Suppliers in Ukraine & Operational Status
• Ukraine Auto Parts Industry, Supplier Actions
• Impact Analysis-Auto Parts

Raw Materials Overview and Impact on the Supply Chain

• Snapshot of the Russian Supply of Raw Materials
• Palladium, Market Overview
• Palladium, Catalytic Material in Automotive
• Palladium, Exponential Increase in Price
• Nickel, Market Overview
• Nickel Prices Touching a 11-Year High
• Nickel, EV Battery-The Key Automotive Application
• Nickel Price Surge to Increase the Cost of EVs by $1,000
• Neon Gas Supply Issues-Lessons from 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War
• The Chip Shortage Crisis to be Aggravated by Shortage of Neon Gas
• Impact Analysis-Raw Material
• Impact Analysis-Raw Material (continued)

OEM Perspective

• Renault, Overview
• Renault, Impact Analysis
• Hyundai and Kia, Overview
• Hyundai and Kia, Impact Analysis
• Stellantis, Overview
• Stellantis, Impact Analysis
• Volkswagen, Overview
• Volkswagen, Impact Analysis
• Toyota, Overview
• Toyota, Impact Analysis
• Chinese Brands

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Deepen Industry Collaboration to Avoid Procurement Issues
• Growth Opportunity 1-Deepen Industry Collaboration to Avoid Procurement Issues (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternative Product Sourcing Strategies to Avoid Shortage in Components
• Growth Opportunity 2-Alternative Product Sourcing Strategies to Avoid Shortage in Components (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3-OEMs Mitigating the Business Opportunity Losses due to the Conflict
• Growth Opportunity 3-OEMs Mitigating the Business Opportunity Losses due to the Conflict (continued)

Survey Results from Respondents

• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 1
• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 2
• Results from Survey-Poll Question No. 3
• List of Exhibits
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• List of Exhibits (continued)
• Legal Disclaimer